new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

24-02-2020 11:53AM

givyjoe wrote: »

Arbitrary? Are you having a laugh? It's been stated multiple times drawing from various sources that the 80% of cases are mild.

Again, as for arbitrary, how about you practice what you preach and provide with a source that breaks down exactly how they've calculated the worst scenario. Seems an awful lot like they've literally just taken the widely stated mortality rate of 2% and applied it to a guesstimate of 1million infections.

But how many people are asymptomatic Joe? I'll put my boards membership that the mortality rate will be less than 2% when all this is done. I don't believe that 20% of all cases of coronavirus in the world need ICU intervention.

BanditLuke · 24-02-2020 11:54AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Luke. Luke. Luke. Ye wee petal. Love putting words in other people's mouth because you were caught wrong. Whilst our health service could be better (never denied that), it's still a lot better than an authoritarian country who's healthcare is worse than Uzbekistan.

Anyway, you continue to post lies and misrepresentations like a good little boy.

You where caught out saying our health service isn't a mess. It is and you know it.

Please stop saying i am posting up lies as that in inaccurate. Iv'e been consistent from day one on this thread that my biggest concern is that our health service will collapse under the pressure of this virus as we have very little capacity built in for something of this scale. I say again we haven't the ability to do what China has done and that is obvious.

Duke of Url · 24-02-2020 11:55AM

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Narrow-minded to not believe 100% what a Totalitarian Communist Regime is saying?

Okay then...

lol

How did you get that from my post.

If you believed 100% what a Totalitarian Communist Regime is saying that would also be Narrow minded.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 11:56AM

Deleted User wrote: »

But how many people are asymptomatic Joe? I'll put my boards membership that the mortality rate will be less than 2% when all this is done. I don't believe that 20% of all cases of coronavirus in the world need ICU intervention.

Who knows, how many people with flu are?

How many people with flu dont seek medical attention. The same hidden iceberg of patients applies to other viruses where people don't make it into the system. If this was just another strain of flu virus, with similar morbidity rates, why on earth would there be such draconian measures in place to stop it's spread? Measures which we have literally never seen before.

Kermit.de.frog · 24-02-2020 11:56AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Seem very narrow minded but each to themselves I suppose.

If you want to believe the politburo in Beijing each to themselves I suppose.

BanditLuke · 24-02-2020 11:57AM

Stock markets taking a hammering around the globe on the back of this. Couldn't give a hoot myself but it's obvious they are spooked by this and the effects on the world economy.

Duke of Url · 24-02-2020 11:58AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you want to believe the politburo in Beijing each to themselves I suppose.

Its weird that your logic is to pick sides.

Im not picking any.

timmyntc · 24-02-2020 12:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

But how many people are asymptomatic Joe? I'll put my boards membership that the mortality rate will be less than 2% when all this is done. I don't believe that 20% of all cases of coronavirus in the world need ICU intervention.

If they're asymptomatic they'll probably never get diagnosed, and never be included in the mortality rate in the first place.

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 12:00PM

givyjoe wrote: »

Who knows, how many people with flu are?

How many people with flu dont seek medical attention. The same hidden iceberg of patients applies to other viruses where people don't make it into the system. If this was just another strain of flu virus, with similar morbidity rates, why on earth would there be such draconian measures in place to stop it's spread? Measures which we have literally never seen before.

I'm presuming cos there is a vaccine for the flu and not for this; so if the Flu gets out of hand everyone gets a vaccine.

If this gets out of hand, they have to lock everything down til it's figured out.

odyssey06 · 24-02-2020 12:00PM

givyjoe wrote: »

Who knows, how many people with flu are?
How many people with flu dont seek medical attention. The same hidden iceberg of patients applies to other viruses where people don't make it into the system. If this was just another strain of flu virus, with similar morbidity rates, why on earth would there be such draconian measures in place to stop it's spread? Measures which we have literally never seen before.

Let's take one example.
Russia closed its land border with China.
A decision to ban mass Chinese tour groups — the biggest driver of growth for Russia’s tourist industry since 2015 — was also taken.
https://www.ft.com/content/5b61d6e4-4367-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c

Russia is dependent on trade with China since the sanctions applied by the West due to Ukraine. Russia wants friendly trade relations with China.

Russia didn't do all this because it was spooked by the declared death rate in Hubei.

Candamir · 24-02-2020 12:01PM

givyjoe wrote: »

No it doesn't, it assumes a 2% death rate on 1000000 infections (20k), which won't be the case if we don't have enough respirators etc for critical patients. 20% of cases being critical means 200k will have been in critical condition, that's an enormous number. Hopefully that worst case scenario doesn't happen, but if does we have to hope those numbers are spread over as long a time period as possible. Thats why it's so important to do as much as we possibly can to slow down the spread.

Ok, so 2% mortality, 80% are mild infections and 22% are critical. So no asymptomatic cases? No moderate infections?

Can we expect a quarter of the population to be infected just this season, or will it continue every year?

Those two proper oxygen ventilatiors are going to be worked hard!!

timmyntc · 24-02-2020 12:01PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

I'm presuming cos there is a vaccine for the flu and not for this; so if the Flu gets out of hand everyone gets a vaccine.

If this gets out of hand, they have to lock everything down til it's figured out.

It's because this has a reported 2% mortality rate - influenza is closer to 0.02%.

imfml · 24-02-2020 12:01PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Anyone living in Australia? You made the list...

“Today, we added Australia and Italy to the list of countries from which returning travelers will be required to enter quarantine,” the prime minister said. “As necessary, we will add other countries to the list.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Netanyahu-International-coronavirus-quarantine-list-may-grow-618492

Hmmmm. My partners best friend is returning from Australia next week. Obviously lots of eating, drinking and hanging out planned. If this was Israel that would all be postponed, yet in Ireland we march on.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 12:03PM

Deleted User wrote: »

But how many people are asymptomatic Joe? I'll put my boards membership that the mortality rate will be less than 2% when all this is done. I don't believe that 20% of all cases of coronavirus in the world need ICU intervention.

Unreported cases are a big grey area, personally i wouldn't make too many assumptions on unknown numbers
People die without being tested for coronations. There was a case in Italy few days ago of a woman who was tested after she died, and she was positive
There will be mild symptoms and deaths both falling out of the official reported data.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 12:03PM

Candamir wrote: »

Ok, so 2% mortality, 80% are mild infections and 22% are critical. So no asymptomatic cases? No moderate infections?

Can we expect a quarter of the population to be infected just this season, or will it continue every year?

Those two proper oxygen ventilatiors are going to be worked hard!!

Those ones likely wont show up to hospital, just like they dont show up in flu cases.

You'd need a crystal ball for the infection rates/speed, who knows. Doing whatever we can to slow it down, should be a priority.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 12:05PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

I'm presuming cos there is a vaccine for the flu and not for this; so if the Flu gets out of hand everyone gets a vaccine.

If this gets out of hand, they have to lock everything down til it's figured out.

We didn't see these measures with Swine Flu, not even close.

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 12:08PM

givyjoe wrote: »

We didn't see these measures with Swine Flu, not even close.

I'm guessing that was due to the low incubation period for the swine flu (it was generally pretty easy to catch); the long incubation period for COVID seems to be what is spooking a lot of people as it's much harder to catch at an early stage.

volchitsa · 24-02-2020 12:08PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

No it's like you didn't read my post. China has the ability to build hospitals in days, they have robots bringing infected people food in those hospitals, they have the ability to make thousands of ventilators, the ability to lock down a city with a population twice the size of ours in hours. We have none of that.

I saw a graph somewhere showing that Wuhan (and perhaps the province of Hubei generally) has a fraction of the number of hospital beds per head of population than the average in China, which is pretty close to Ireland's rate. That may help explain why the death rate in Hubei is so much worse than even the rest of China.

I'm not convinced that a city that is notably short of hospital beds is really going to be able to provide robots and other high tech solutions to make up for this shortfall, never mind use them to give better care than other places.

(I'm always puzzled by a number of posters who seem determined to use every possible excuse to "knock" Ireland - it seems like they would prefer Ireland to suffer as many disasters as possible to prove them right in some way about how awful Ireland is. Sometimes it seems to be some sort of Cassandra syndrome, other times it's just civil war politics. Mad anyway, IMO. Ireland's far from perfect, but like, seriously?)

Candamir · 24-02-2020 12:12PM

givyjoe wrote: »

Those ones likely wont show up to hospital, just like they dont show up in flu cases.

You'd need a crystal ball for the infection rates/speed, who knows. Doing whatever we can to slow it down, should be a priority.

Not true. You’re saying that only cases requiring critical care turn up in hospital? Or don’t turn up anywhere for that matter (and don’t get counted)

That’s not how it works.

The bit about the crystal ball is about right though. Even though people seem to be fairly certain churning out the stats.

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 12:13PM

I will say one thing, if you were planning on giving up smoking in the future, now might be a good time.

MD1990 · 24-02-2020 12:15PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

They had some talking head from the HSE on earlier. The presenter just threw some softball questions at him and his answers where all nothing to see here don't panic type guff. He was saying our health system is more thna ready to cope with this i just laughed out loud.

Really bizarre to laugh at this.

You seen to nearly enjoy posting on here every day about how ill equipped we
are

Your the same guy who revels in telling other posters who though it was just a flu how bad it will likely become or has in other countries.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 12:16PM

Candamir wrote: »

Not true. You’re saying that only cases requiring critical care turn up in hospital? Or don’t turn up anywhere for that matter (and don’t get counted)

That’s not how it works.

The bit about the crystal ball is about right though. Even though people seem to be fairly certain churning out the stats.

No, but most won't. Why would you go to hospital or the doctor for a illness with mild symptoms? How would they be accounted for if no one but the patient even knows they are ill.

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 12:18PM

Some interesting stats here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Age of Coronavirus Deaths
Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology [1] has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.

Sex ratio
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by SEX:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on sex. When reading these numbers, it must be taken into account that smoking in China is much more prevalent among males. Smoking increases the risks of respiratory complications.

SEX
DEATH RATE *
Male
2.8%
Female
1.7%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)
Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE*
Cardiovascular disease
10.5%
Diabetes
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
6.3%
Hypertension
6.0%
Cancer
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

this is an interesting point I'd hadn't seen before; I'd imagine smoking and the general low air quality in China might be having a larger impact than thought.

pc7 · 24-02-2020 12:18PM

Another death in Italy, seems a really yuck illness for elderly people

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1231900241298968576?s=21

Titclamp · 24-02-2020 12:18PM

If there was no internet we'd not be infected virus paranoia

Candamir · 24-02-2020 12:19PM

givyjoe wrote: »

No, but most won't. Why would you go to hospital or the doctor for a illness with mild symptoms? How would they be accounted for if no one but the patient even knows they are ill.

And moderate cases? Like those that require 24/7 medical care but don’t quite make it to the ICU and need ventilation? Do you know how sick you need to be to end up in ICU?

But you think those patients stay home and invisible?

Titclamp · 24-02-2020 12:20PM

pc7 wrote: »

Another death in Italy, seems a really yuck illness for elderly people
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1231900241298968576?s=21

They already had cancer.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 12:21PM

You keep forgetting about all the death cases that are not tested for corona virus
Don't assume that unreported cases are all going to be asymptomatic

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 12:23PM

Candamir wrote: »

And moderate cases? Like those that require 24/7 medical care but don’t quite make it to the ICU and need ventilation? Do you know how sick you need to be to end up in ICU?

But you think those patients stay home and invisible?

What are you talking about? I think you are completely misunderstanding the point i'm making and to be honest, I've now no idea what point you are trying to make. There are mild cases in both illnesses, we will not see most of these in the stats because they won't be needing hospital treatment.

Here's an example of critical cases as quoted by the IT last year. 2083 cases of which 112 were critical, thats 5%. As already quoted, the currently available stats for covid19 suggest a 20% severe/critical rate.

Fr_Dougal · 24-02-2020 12:27PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

I will say one thing, if you were planning on giving up smoking in the future, now might be a good time.

Not sure about that. The coughing and symptoms associated with quitting smoking might actually help the spread of the virus.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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