new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 05:36PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Your being selective with your data. It’s clear you don’t know how to read it as you are jumping from one data set to another.

you are being random, the stats are out there, anybody can read them and they are very easy to understand

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 05:37PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Oh bollocks. Explain yourself if you are going to scaremonger constantly. Always a cop out with you. A total bluffer.

Every time I call you out you have no answer for it.

But but data.....

Explain with data how you are estimating 3-10%. I'd love to see it.

click, scroll down and read. I'm tired of repeating the same stuff over and over

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

also, read below to understand what is wrong with the 3%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

tuxy · 23-02-2020 05:38PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

[*]2% (which is now 3%) is based on 70% on unresolved cases, once they are all closed the % will surely be higher, do you think nobody else is gong to die out of that 70%?)
[/LIST]

Yes if no one else is diagnoed with the virus and people continuje to die then that percentatge will increase.
I just think that at this stage the number of infected won't just halt all of a sudden.

Duke of Url · 23-02-2020 05:38PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you are being random, the stats are out there, anybody can read them and they are very easy to understand

Now don’t run away.

You stated 30% recovery rate. Give me that in a number.

23-02-2020 05:39PM

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

Drumpot · 23-02-2020 05:40PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

To be perfectly honest i'm not sure there is much to be scared of anyway.

Sooner or later the virus will just be accepted as a reality, to be guarded against - yes, but treated as any other serious illness.

Agreed, the biggest question for me is how people are going to react to the news, especially ones who have been laughing this off or just ignoring it completely. They are the ones most likely to panic simply because they have absolutely no understanding and since they have been in denial (or just not interested) it will be a shock of sorts.

If strict quarantine procedures end up here , it will be a bit of a shock to us all as nobody is familar with such abnormal protocols. I dont anticipate huge issues (as you said its a virus , will come, will cause problems but should eventually improve in hopefully a few months).

Again, this is why I dont get the "tell em nothing" approach to communication. You are just kicking a potential problem down the road and waiting until probably the worst time possible to start educating people.

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 05:43PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Now don’t run away.

You stated 30% recovery rate. Give me that in a number.

ok, apples to apples

Death 2470 / 78,969 = 3%
Recovery 23,418 / 78,969 = 30%
the rest 67% have no outcome, they could be deaths or recoveries

or oranges to oranges

death 2,470 / 25,888 = 10%
Recovery 23,418 / 25,888 = 90%

cnocbui · 23-02-2020 05:43PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

Would the kisser in chief be one of them, by any chance?

Drumpot · 23-02-2020 05:44PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

As Dr John sarcastically said, Everybody is grand in North Korea so no need for any information from that basket case.

It really is hard to imagine how this virus isnt in practically every country at this stage considering how hard it can be to detect between incubation periods of up to possibly 3 weeks and many not ever getting it severe enough to raise concerns...

Cody montana · 23-02-2020 05:44PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

Where are you getting this information from?

CinemaGuy45 · 23-02-2020 05:44PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

you are being random, the stats are out there, anybody can read them and they are very easy to understand

Look you only have yourself to blame.
People do not read data most only read headlines.

70% of cases are unresolved like you said but the headlines do not reflect this.

Mic 1972 you are like the kid at school that says Santa is not real and the other kids are telling you My Mammy and Daddy says he is real so there.

You're not going to convince these people so you only have yourself to blame for trying.

Best thing you can do is just keeping posting the facts and those that want the facts will read them.;)

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 23-02-2020 05:46PM

Everyone will have been skiing in Italy last week with the midterm, I expect we'll be hearing about our first cases this week.

There's some great reporting on the virus from Al Jazeera.

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 05:47PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Look you only have yourself to blame.
People do not read data most only read headlines.

70% of cases are unresolved like you said but the headlines do not reflect this.

Mic 1972 you are like the kid at school that says Santa is not real and the other kids are telling you My Mammy and Daddy says he is real so there.

You're not going to convince these people so you only have yourself to blame for trying.

Best thing you can do is just keeping posting the facts and those that want the facts will read them.;)

I will follow your advise, it's becoming frustrating trying to convince Santa believers!

cnocbui · 23-02-2020 05:47PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

ok, apples to apples

2470 / 78,969 = 3%
23,418 / 78,969 = 30%

or oranges to oranges

2,470 / 25,888 = 10%
23,418 / 25,888 = 90%

Give up with the numbers and trying to find reason in them. They are wholly unknown and are fictitious in the sense of how they portray the reality, which is poorly, at best. Numbers worth looking at will only be available retrospectively after it's all over.

pc7 · 23-02-2020 05:47PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Around fifteen thousand people are infected in Cambodia. No one is reporting it.

?

Duke of Url · 23-02-2020 05:48PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

ok, apples to apples

Death 2470 / 78,969 = 3%
Recovery 23,418 / 78,969 = 30%
the rest 67% have no outcome, they could be deaths or recoveries

or oranges to oranges

death 2,470 / 25,888 = 10%
Recovery 23,418 / 25,888 = 90%

That’s 2 DATA SETS.

Ffs - You are switching between them to counter argue.

People use one. You use the other.

They are completely different lol

Kermit.de.frog · 23-02-2020 05:49PM

One thing this episode does illustrate, assuming the source is as China says, is that it can no longer be culturally acceptable in the 21st century to engage in practices of eating delicacies like bats or whatever.

After this you hope the Chinese authorities would take a dim view and implement harsher measures to try and end these practices.

It's too dangerous.

Gynoid · 23-02-2020 05:49PM

:eek:

Ludo · 23-02-2020 05:52PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

That’s 2 DATA SETS.

Ffs - You are switching between them to counter argue.

People use one. You use the other.

They are completely different lol

Isn't it one data set with the unknowns removed in the second set of figures?

Sarn · 23-02-2020 05:52PM

I would imagine that it’s already here. As mentioned above, if you were asymptomatic or only had a mild dose it is unlikely that most would think Covvid-19.

With people from all over the globe passing through international airports unaware that they are infected I can’t see how it isn’t going to start popping up everywhere. It’ll only be where there is targeted sampling or someone experiencing symptoms that warrant hospitalisation that it will be identified. It explains how countries jump from zero cases to double digits so quickly. It will also help put the current mortality rate into context when the number of infected is better estimated.

23-02-2020 05:52PM

And reportedly, Nepal is trying to get through this, but cases are popping up in Kathmandu now. 40+.

wylo · 23-02-2020 05:53PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Unconfirmed cases have no stats, you can't quantify that number so there's no way you can make a % assumption unless you are using imaginary figures

2% (which is now 3%) is based on 70% on unresolved cases, once they are all closed the % will surely be higher, do you think nobody else is gong to die out of that 70%?)

Its just impossible at this stage to give death rate, because if you look only at closed cases which is 10% death rate that does not account for the possible 10s of 1000s of "closed" cases where people in perhaps December or January just got what they thought was a "bad dose", recovered and thought nothing more of it till news started getting out about it, especially younger people who believed they'd no reason to worry.

For all we know Ireland might even already have closed cases.

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 05:53PM

Ludo wrote: »

Isn't it one data set with the unknowns removed in the second set of figures?

Yes, that's what it is. He knows too

BanditLuke · 23-02-2020 05:54PM

Italy and South Korea on high alert over coronavirus
http://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0223/1117075-coronavirus-spread/

SK on red alert

cnocbui · 23-02-2020 05:55PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

One thing this episode does illustrate, assuming the source is as China says, is that it can no longer be culturally acceptable in the 21st century to engage in practices of eating delicacies like bats or whatever.

After this you hope the Chinese authorities would take a dim view and implement harsher measures to try and end these practices.

It's too dangerous.

They said they intended to ban the trade and consumption of wild animals/insects. They might actually mean it this time after this. Unless it was the lab, in which case it will probably not be implemented.

Mic 1972 · 23-02-2020 05:56PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

That’s 2 DATA SETS.

Ffs - You are switching between them to counter argue.

People use one. You use the other.

They are completely different lol

I reported both for you to understand, but you don't understand stats Everybody else in here get them

BloodBath · 23-02-2020 05:57PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Unconfirmed cases have no stats, you can't quantify that number so there's no way you can make a % assumption unless you are using imaginary figure

This again? It's still a number n in the equation that has a massive effect on the final number. Just because you can't assign a value to it currently doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It's existence can and only will reduce the death rate.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% (which is now 3%) is based on 70% on unresolved cases, once they are all closed the % will surely be higher, do you think nobody else is gong to die out of that 70%?)

For unresolved cases the number of infected is not a static number. You are assuming that number and the number of recoveries doesn't also go up in somewhat the same proportion as deaths. I'd imagine serious testing needs to be done to even close a case on a recovery so there's a lag on data there. Where as death data is more readily available.

CinemaGuy45 · 23-02-2020 05:57PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Yes, that's what it is. He knows too

Rubbish 70% unresolved:rolleyes: yeah right.

No going to fall for that I will be getting my information from the HSE.

cameramonkey · 23-02-2020 05:57PM

With the seemingly sudden very rapid rise in numbers in Italy and Iran a new strategy is needed in Ireland. We have so many direct flights to that area of Italy we really need to think about our response. I hope the HSE, army and Garda are getting ready for a similar outbreak here. It's only a matter of time before this is declared a pandemic.

China might be the country that gets away lightest in the end. The have the ability to control populations in a way that other countries like Ireland dont.

Tesla3 · 23-02-2020 05:58PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Only if you are old and already sick - you left out that bit.

You will already be sick after the first infection!!!!!

There is no good hoping

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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