new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

dublin99

How many Italian fans are expected to travel to Ireland for the 6 Nations match on 7 March? What is the risk of the virus spreading at the Aviva? They have already cancelled the 6 Nations womens match today in Italy between Italy and Scotland!

odyssey06

Nijmegen wrote: »

Weird the way the outbreak in Italy is so spread across a load of little villages. Another super spreader, on holiday? Shoutout to all those previous here saying “we have a low population density, be grand in the countryside!”

According to a recent model done at John Hopkins University (quoted in new scientist magazine), 10% of super spreaders could account for 80% of infections.

Duke of Url

BanditLuke wrote: »

This is a pivotal moment for Europe. Do we do what's right and lock down transport hubs to prevent contagion or do we let a possible 2% out of a very possible millions of infected die. This is where we need to see real leadership and not talking shop politics.

When you say lock down transport hubs, are you saying nobody on or off the island.

What happens at the NI border which is the UK.

Drumpot

Duke of Url wrote: »

When you say lock down transport hubs, are you saying nobody on or off the island.

What happens at the NI border which is the UK.

We can only control what we control. A lot of the strategy’s being taken are designed to slow down The virus as it looks unstoppable at this stage. Even if people can get into Ireland through Northern Ireland, it Still slows it down.

I don’t think our authority’s have the foresight or guts to take such drastic action. They can hide behind what everyone else is doing so no tough decisions will need to be made.

Mic 1972

BanditLuke wrote: »

This is a pivotal moment for Europe. Do we do what's right and lock down transport hubs to prevent contagion or do we let a possible 2% out of a very possible millions of infected die. This is where we need to see real leadership and not talking shop politics.

2%?? LOL
where have you been for the last few days?

BanditLuke

Duke of Url wrote: »

When you say lock down transport hubs, are you saying nobody on or off the island.

What happens at the NI border which is the UK.

Yes everything. Airports, ferry ports etc... Why wait until what's happening in China is happening here. Be proactive now.

Unearthly

BanditLuke wrote: »

This is a pivotal moment for Europe. Do we do what's right and lock down transport hubs to prevent contagion or do we let a possible 2% out of a very possible millions of infected die. This is where we need to see real leadership and not talking shop politics.

Haven't you seen The Leftovers? Losing 2% of the population would bring the world to its knees :pac:

BanditLuke

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2%?? LOL
where have you been for the last few days?

2% is a best case scenario. Obviously the figure is going to be worse in under prepared health systems like ours.

ixoy

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

It's not like doing the bare minimum amount is hard. I understand it's unlikely to be contained in any country at this stage, but could we have given it a shot even?

What's the bare minimum in your mind? Some posters here would have us lock down borders...

BanditLuke

Turkey closes its border with Iran.

tara73

Irish Stones wrote: »

We have to thank that damn idiot 38 yo man who spread the virus around by going to the gym, playing soccer with his friends, taking part to a race and going out with lots of people in the last two weeks, instead of staying home and taking care of his 8 months pregnant wife.
.

how do you know all this, how do you know it was only this one 38yo man who was spreading it? source??

I think nobody, no expert or whoever can 100% say it was only that man. there are supposedly many others infected from whereever who spread it. That's kind of defamation to blame this single person in this situation.

BorneTobyWilde

This could be a huge conspiracy, a way to dwindle down the worlds population to a more manageable figure. I suspect there is a vaccine already, and that those in power are safe.

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2%?? LOL
where have you been for the last few days?

What’s this 30% In a number?

Mic 1972 wrote: »

As of today, Recovery rate = 30%

Unearthly

I sold whatever stocks I had last Wednesday. Economically we are going to be hit massively.

Drumpot

ixoy wrote: »

What's the bare minimum in your mind? Some posters here would have us lock down borders...

In terms of communication, the HSE copied and pasted a website from the equally poor NHS (savaged by Dr John for Continuing to say they are ready for everything when they can’t possibly be). Somebody said they were on 6\1 news one day. It should be update segment everyday at this stage.

Part of the issue now is advising people to maybe start stocking up on extra goods may cause a bit of Panic because the virus is now in the EU and will feel more concerning. That’s why I suggested that they start putting out Bulletins of sorts weeks ago to slowly encourage people to take some small steps. If most people have some sort of stock or preparation done it reduces potential panic.

What’s clear is that no country appears to be able to stop the virus and are less then perfect at responding. I don’t believe any country has the resources to take care of the kind of numbers of potential sick (up to 60%, with maybe 15% of those serious). So we should of been preparing and communicating to our population weeks ago.

BanditLuke

Unearthly wrote: »

I sold whatever stocks I had last Wednesday. Economically we are going to be hit massively.

I'm still thinking the average Joe is more concerned about who wins Love Island and hasn't put any preparation plans in place at all.

Look at what's it done to the Chinese economy and that was with a mammoth almost war time effort to close down cities, build hospitals etc..to contain the virus.

Mic 1972

BanditLuke wrote: »

2% is a best case scenario. Obviously the figure is going to be worse in under prepared health systems like ours.

the 2% is currently 3% and it only represents the % of deaths out of total cases, 70% of which still don't have an outcome
An alternate way to look at this is counting the % deaths out of all closed cases, which has stabilized at 10% for the last 2 days.

Considering the undetected cases we can probably assume that Death Rate sits between 3% and 10%

BorneTobyWilde

BanditLuke wrote: »

I'm still thinking the average Joe is more concerned about who wins Love Island and hasn't put any preparation plans in place at all.

Look at what's it done to the Chinese economy and that was with a mammoth almost war time effort to close down cities, build hospitals etc..to contain the virus.

You really think it would be wise to stock up on fuel and food?

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the 2% is currently 3% and it only represents the % of deaths out of all cases, 70% of which still don't have an outcome
An alternate way to look at this is counting the % deaths out of all closed cases, which has stabilized at 10% for the last 2 days.

Considering the undetected cases we probably assume that Death Rate sits between 3% and 10%

Why did you try and call him out on the 2% number when you used the same formula earlier?

Or is it the editional 1% that annoyed you

BanditLuke

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the 2% is currently 3% and it only represents the % of deaths out of all cases, 70% of which still don't have an outcome
An alternate way to look at this is counting the % deaths out of all closed cases, which has stabilized at 10% for the last 2 days.

Considering the undetected cases we probably assume that Death Rate sits between 3% and 10%

From a selfish prospective with frail elderly parents I'd be more concerned with the percentage in the over 70's age bracket. I've got them masks and weeks worth of supplies so they don't have to go to shops etc.and can bunker down at home..but they do attend hospitals on a regular basis which is a huge concern.

BanditLuke

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

You really think it would be wise to stock up on fuel and food?

I can't see the harm in it. Ill happily be laughed at if it all blows over (it won't) but the water will be drunk and the food will be eaten eventually so its no loss financially. I've put a little extra in every weekly shop over the last 4 weeks as well as doing a water and tinned food, dry food shop separately for my parents. It really doesn't take much effort.

igCorcaigh

BanditLuke wrote: »

From a selfish prospective with frail elderly parents I'd be more concerned with the percentage in the over 70's age bracket. I've got them masks and weeks worth of supplies so they don't have to go to shops etc.and can bunker down at home..but they do attend hospitals on a regular basis which is a huge concern.

I'm concerned about my parents too. My dad is in his late 70's

Spanish Eyes

Well we heading for our usual spot in Southern Spain in four weeks time. If there is lockdown on travel so be it. But we intend to go anyway if not.

Life has to go on. Will watch and wait for travel restrictions, and will observe of course. But I doubt it will happen. Just look at Flight Radar24. The skies are as full as ever.

Kewreeuss

Article in the Indo yesterday.
Is this the journalist stirring it up or are people in Dublin really not going to get their takeaway or be abusive to oriental people they pass in the street?

Mic 1972

Duke of Url wrote: »

Why did you try and call him out on the 2% number when you used the same formula earlier?

Or is it the editional 1% that annoyed you

People throwing around the 2% figure like a mantra, including the press
it is a reassuring number and nothing more
Accurate and up to date stats are out daily on Worldometer, my advise is to familiarizes with those figures

Duke of Url

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People throwing around the 2% figure like a mantra, including the press
it is a reassuring number and nothing more
Accurate and up to date stats are out daily on Worldometer, my advise is to familiarizes with those figures

Ah so you are arguing over 1.13%. Got it

Graces7

CORONA VIRUS NOW A NOTIFIABLE DISEASE

I just was on breaking news.ie; there is a header at the top "coronavirus" and on that page news that coronavirus is now a notifiable diseasea in Ireland and a long piece on coronavirus precautions etc. Much the same as they issued a few weeks ago as they say in the article

I cannot copy paste on this machine so please can some kind person copy/paste the link? Thank you

Headed "Doctors obliged to notify HSE...…."

It should reassure folk.

Please excuse me now as I am very very unwell today but was concerned at the thread earlier that folk were being more worried into panic than was needful.





John for Continuing to say they are ready for everything when they can’t possibly be). Somebody said they were on 6\1 news one day. It should be update segment everyday at this stage.
n weeks ago.[/QUOTE]

Mic 1972

ixoy wrote: »

What's the bare minimum in your mind? Some posters here would have us lock down borders...

Other people are still turning up at social gathering, house parties, pubs with a running nose, completely oblivion to the fact that the virus is here

Graces7

BanditLuke wrote: »

I can't see the harm in it. Ill happily be laughed at if it all blows over (it won't) but the water will be drunk and the food will be eaten eventually so its no loss financially. I've put a little extra in every weekly shop over the last 4 weeks as well as doing a water and tinned food, dry food shop separately for my parents. It really doesn't take much effort.

Wise and sensible. And as we say, no worries if it is not needed as it is things that will be used.

gozunda

Gynoid wrote: »

If you are past a certain age I will be polite to you even if you are a thundering pain in the arse, yup.
They can be challenged more politely if the person is elderly and not robust. Or better still ignored. Would you like to watch someone do it in real life, would you do it yourself, be so scathing to an old person? I would not stand back and allow it to happen in front of me in real life anyway, even if the elderly and infirm person was completely annoying. It is just not good form.But have at it, whoever needs to, if that is your thing.

I know you are replying to another poster there However some news for ya. This is the internet. We are all anonymous posters on this thread. There are no certainties regarding anyones age or health or even if posts are genuine or at least not taking the piss or otherwise. Anyone poster here could be of 'certain age' 'infirm' or even not 'robust. I've been around for a while and most posters and imo dont continuously bleat about such things or at least play a musical instrument to beat the band.

That aside any poster attacking others or even being " a thundering pain in the arse"- will most likley get that pointed out.

Dont like a post - then afaik the normal thing is report it and leave off the tilting at windmills for dragons or whatever ...