new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12 · 15-02-2020 2:24pm

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

wadacrack · 15-02-2020 2:27pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

Its destroying their economy and is a new virus. Its too early for any scientific facts on the disease. Especially with China's inaccurate data on it. No doubt some of the patterns seem very serious.

15-02-2020 2:30pm

The worst is the fear-mongering arseholes using the cured vs. deaths numbers to come to a 15% death rate. Can you imagine the death rate for influenza if you worked that out?

https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/facts-and-statistics#4
During the severe 2017-2018 flu seasonTrusted Source, one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu.

91% cured. 9% died. "The death rate for influenza is clearly 9%."

Mic 1972 · 15-02-2020 2:31pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

Extreme measures are in place because the death rate is way higher than 2%, the data is out there, you just need a calculator

2% death rate means that out of 100 people, 2 people died and 98 people recovered
At the moment however out of 100 people we have 2 deaths, 13 recovered and 85 still sick

SeaBreezes · 15-02-2020 2:31pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

This it's just the flu drives me nuts.
Watch their actions not their words.
You do not quarantine millions of people, risk crashing the worlds economy for the flu..

Ubbquittious · 15-02-2020 2:37pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

This it's just the flu drives me nuts.
Watch their actions not their words.
You do not quarantine millions of people, risk crashing the worlds economy for the flu..

Ah Fuck the economy. Staying alive more important

dublin99 · 15-02-2020 2:40pm

Lots of countries have imposed outright ban or quarantine requirements for visitors from China or anyone who was in China 14 days before arrival.
Some cruise ship companies have banned anyone with Chinese passports on cruises.
Although there are no direct flights from China to Ireland, there have been a large influx of Chinese students and those who took advantage of the investment visa policy. Many Chinese are fleeing the country because of the coronavirus. One Hubei official who was supposed to be leading the fight against coronavirus was found to have escaped to Thailand with his family!
Many of the Chinese visitors transit through London, Paris or Amsterdam. The Irish Government, even if not screening people with fever at the airport, should at least make Chinese passport holders fill in some declaration form with verifiable contact details and be able to track them down if necessary.

BanditLuke · 15-02-2020 2:41pm

Yeah China is shutting down whole cities and introducing draconian measures for "only the flu".

SeaBreezes · 15-02-2020 2:47pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The worst is the fear-mongering arseholes using the cured vs. deaths numbers to come to a 15% death rate. Can you imagine the death rate for influenza if you worked that out?

https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/facts-and-statistics#4
During the severe 2017-2018 flu seasonTrusted Source, one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu.

91% cured. 9% died. "The death rate for influenza is clearly 9%."

Have you ever seen a city of 11 million shutdown for the flu?
AND WHO praising them for their actions, not calling them fear-mongers or conspiracy idiots?
Why is that do you think? If it's 'just the flu' ...
it doesn't make sense

hmmm · 15-02-2020 2:50pm

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yeah China is shutting down whole cities and introducing draconian measures for "only the flu".

The Chinese system was at risk because of the initial panic. The CCP would lose legitimacy at home & abroad if they were seen to allow this get out of control. Ironically it appears that the thousands of people with minor illnesses rushing the hospitals in the early days actually caused the virus to spread widely.

What I'm seeing is a wild swing in behaviour caused by a very slow leadership process which takes time to filter down from above. The order went out a few weeks ago to stop this virus, and by the time this filtered down we were seeing local party officials impose draconian measures. Now Xi Jinping is asking for people to go back to work, and this is also taking time to filter down. It's like trying to turn a supertanker, and shows the weakness in the Chinese model of everything going through Xi.

I don't think we will see the same sort of measures used outside China, they are in many ways a function of the system. What could cause problems is unnecessary panic, with people pulling kids out of school and hiding indoors etc.

15-02-2020 2:51pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Have you ever seen a city of 11 million shutdown for the flu?
AND WHO praising them for their actions, not calling them fear-mongers or conspiracy idiots?
Why is that do you think? If it's 'just the flu' ...
it doesn't make sense

I understand it's serious. But it isn't killing 15% of the people who get it.

dublin99 · 15-02-2020 2:51pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Extreme measures are in place because the death rate is way higher than 2%, the data is out there, you just need a calculator

2% death rate means that out of 100 people, 2 people died and 98 people recovered
At the moment however out of 100 people we have 2 deaths, 13 recovered and 85 still sick

The death rate in China is much higher. People are not tested and therefore not diagnosed (officially) and many people die at home as they are not admitted to hospital. These deaths are not included in the official figures.

In many cases whole families are infected. In Hong Kong in a high rise block, it was spread through the sewage pipes from a man who lived in flat on a high floor to a woman ten floors below. She then infected her son and daughter in law. The daughter in law had a family dinner in a restaurant in a different part of town and infected her father and other relatives!

The problem is it can spread before any symptoms are noticed as incubation is up to 14 days. In fact on the Diamond Princess,of the latest group of 67 (out of 287 cases) 38 cases had no symptoms at all so they can be "invisible" carriers of the virus!

wakka12 · 15-02-2020 2:53pm

hmmm wrote: »

The Chinese system was at risk because of the initial panic. The CCP would lose legitimacy at home & abroad if they were seen to allow this get out of control. Ironically it appears that the thousands of people with minor illnesses rushing the hospitals in the early days actually caused the virus to spread widely.

What I'm seeing is a wild swing in behaviour caused by a very slow leadership process which takes time to filter down from above. The order went out a few weeks ago to stop this virus, and by the time this filtered down we were seeing local party officials impose draconian measures. Now Xi Jinping is asking for people to go back to work, and this is also taking time to filter down. It's like trying to turn a supertanker, and shows the weakness in the Chinese model of everything going through Xi.

I don't think we will see the same sort of measures used outside China, they are in many ways a function of the system. What could cause problems is unnecessary panic, with people pulling kids out of school and hiding indoors etc.

And yet we have seen same measures in countries outside China with only a few dozen cases, ban on public gathering, indefinite school closures, flight bans, closed borders , a town in Vietnam quarantined, cruise liners with no confirmed cases stranded at sea for days, suspected patients being rushed to hospitals by a team in hazmat suits, governments tracing and observing and isolating tens of thousands of people, and more

igCorcaigh · 15-02-2020 3:01pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I understand it's serious. But it isn't killing 15% of the people who get it.

I think some people are confusing case fatality rate (CFR) with mortality rate.

CFR is measured against diagnosed cases.only.

It is an estimate of the rue mortality rate, but will always be greater, because not all people with the illness will be diagnosed.

ZX7R · 15-02-2020 3:07pm

dublin99 wrote: »

The death rate in China is much higher. People are not tested and therefore not diagnosed (officially) and many people die at home as they are not admitted to hospital. These deaths are not included in the official figures.

In many cases whole families are infected. In Hong Kong in a high rise block, it was spread through the sewage pipes from a man who lived in flat on a high floor to a woman ten floors below. She then infected her son and daughter in law. The daughter in law had a family dinner in a restaurant in a different part of town and infected her father and other relatives!

The problem is it can spread before any symptoms are noticed as incubation is up to 14 days. In fact on the Diamond Princess,of the latest group of 67 (out of 287 cases) 38 cases had no symptoms at all so they can be "invisible" carriers of the virus!

The poo theory is still not 100% ,they are basing it on findings based on sars
But fascinating to read the papers about it

Snow Garden · 15-02-2020 3:10pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30070-9/fulltext

As of Feb 10, 37 558 cases were confirmed, and 812 deaths had been reported to the WHO. Outside of China, 307 cases had been detected in 24 countries.6 Therefore, although several hundreds of patients remain in intensive care, the overall hospital fatality rate remains at 2%. Therefore, it is time to reduce the hype and hysteria surrounding the 2019-nCoV epidemic and reduce sensationalisation of new information, especially on social media, where many outlets aim to grab attention from followers. Additionally, the disparity between the strength of language as presented to the media by some researchers and politicians and the inference shared on social media requires more research to determine how content is being relayed on different platforms.

An effective way of putting this outbreak into perspective is to compare it with other respiratory tract infections with epidemic potential. 2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses. There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.

Read the line again.

2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses.

The Lancet is not saying it is only the flu.

15-02-2020 3:19pm

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

It's been said here and loads of other places that they're not great for containment. Aside from psychologically, you will let your guard down more easily if you think they're protecting you. They get clogged with dirt and particles and become disgusting and unusable. You'll stop a cough or sneeze with the crook of your elbow more hygienically and then don't touch it or people and wash your clothes on a hot wash straight away when you're home. It sounds looney but it's the only practice that will really keep you protected.

A load of people laughed at me a few days ago when I wouldn't shake their hands, saying "because of the coronavirus, I'd say we should get out of the habit of doing that for a while". I pretended I was joking along with them at the time, to not wreck the buzz, but it made me conscious of the fact that people really aren't taking it seriously. A trainee doctor even went to shake my head when I went in the other day. Fck that.

Crucial hand hygiene practices and staying back from people, if you have to go in public during an outbreak, are the only way you'll even be in with a chance of avoiding it. Everyone should have the option to stay at home today anyway, the weather is crap and everyone is dying :rolleyes:.

Speaking of doctors and hygiene, I observed some startling stuff in a private hospital a couple of years ago when I was in waiting area for operating theatres about to undergo surgery. I observed one anaesthetist, who had a very heavy cold, wiping his snotty nose with his bare hands, wiping the snot off on his theatre scrubs, then approach a patient to discuss the imminent anaesthesia. My own anaesthetist arrived with a heavily dribbling nose himself, looking wreaked, with a disposable cup of coffee. At least I didn’t see him wiping his nose on his scrubs

laurah591 · 15-02-2020 3:21pm

that's nasty plain and simple

wakka12 · 15-02-2020 3:26pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

Read the line again.

2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses.

The Lancet is not saying it is only the flu.

But then'There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.'??

15-02-2020 3:28pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I think some people are confusing case fatality rate (CFR) with mortality rate.

CFR is measured against diagnosed cases.only.

It is an estimate of the rue mortality rate, but will always be greater, because not all people with the illness will be diagnosed.

Howeevr this in itself implies that if you start getting symptomatic you have entered the draw, the domain of Cases and are eligible for that potential prize of your demise

Have to find the humour in the horror!

hmmm · 15-02-2020 3:29pm

wakka12 wrote: »

And yet we have seen same measures in countries outside China with only a few dozen cases, ban on public gathering, indefinite school closures, flight bans, closed borders , a town in Vietnam quarantined, cruise liners with no confirmed cases stranded at sea for days, suspected patients being rushed to hospitals by a team in hazmat suits, governments tracing and observing and isolating tens of thousands of people, and more

Contact tracing and social distancing is normal to slow spread - read anything put out by the WHO for dealing with epidemics.

We did it a couple of years ago for Swine Flu in Ireland.

Poorer countries will find it easier to simply quarantine large areas, it won't work in an advanced economy in the West. For a start, the economic impact will be too large for anything similar, plus our health systems are more capable. The key thing will be to slow the spread, so as to avoid a large demand on hospitals, and I'd expect to see things like large sports events cancelled for a few weeks if this becomes widespread.

wakka12 · 15-02-2020 3:33pm

hmmm wrote: »

Contact tracing and social distancing is normal to slow spread - read anything put out by the WHO for dealing with epidemics.

We did it a couple of years ago for Swine Flu in Ireland.

Poorer countries will find it easier to simply quarantine large areas, it won't work in an advanced economy in the West. For a start, the economic impact will be too large for anything similar, plus our health systems are more capable. The key thing will be to slow the spread, so as to avoid a large demand on hospitals, and I'd expect to see things like large sports events cancelled for a few weeks if this becomes widespread.

China is not a poor country, at all, nor Singapore where many of the measures mentioned have occurred.

15-02-2020 3:42pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The worst is the fear-mongering arseholes using the cured vs. deaths numbers to come to a 15% death rate. Can you imagine the death rate for influenza if you worked that out?

https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/facts-and-statistics#4
During the severe 2017-2018 flu seasonTrusted Source, one of the longest in recent years, estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu.

91% cured. 9% died. "The death rate for influenza is clearly 9%."

One thing we must always take into account is that we have some control over our own immunity from Influenza. Eg I have been getting the annual vaccine for 25 years, and on two occasions since that have I got a very brief (36 hours) influenza like illness in circumstances where there was a concurrent high prevalence. There is no such option to protect against any type of Coronavirus, yet, so I would consider that I am at much greater risk of becoming seriously ill with Covid-19.

Mic 1972 · 15-02-2020 3:48pm

wakka12 wrote: »

But then'There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.'??

The data is out there, if you want to know your chances of survival in case you get infected the best thing to do it taking a calculator and work out the rate. You have total deaths, Total infected, total survivals. It ultimately boils down to how you want to look at data

gozunda · 15-02-2020 3:52pm

Just to slightly change the current mood on the thread. Just have to post this

https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1228279669180555264?s=20

wakka12 · 15-02-2020 4:11pm

8 out of 9 UK patients discharged

YFlyer · 15-02-2020 4:14pm

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

It's been said here and loads of other places that they're not great for containment. Aside from psychologically, you will let your guard down more easily if you think they're protecting you. They get clogged with dirt and particles and become disgusting and unusable. You'll stop a cough or sneeze with the crook of your elbow more hygienically and then don't touch it or people and wash your clothes on a hot wash straight away when you're home. It sounds looney but it's the only practice that will really keep you protected.

People are using them to protect themselves from others.

sdanseo · 15-02-2020 4:18pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The worst is the fear-mongering arseholes using the cured vs. deaths numbers to come to a 15% death rate. Can you imagine the death rate for influenza if you worked that out?

Exactly. As I've been saying for days, and I haven't been wrong yet - the deaths to recoveries ratio continues to climb.

It was equal, then 2:1, 4:1 and now more than 6:1.

With the event of mutation left out - and that could still happen making the virus much milder or much worse - I think in a year, when we do large-scale epidemiological studies on this which estimate the real virulence, it'll be 1000:1.

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yeah China is shutting down whole cities and introducing draconian measures for "only the flu".

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Have you ever seen a city of 11 million shutdown for the flu?

Humans panic. There was excessive hype over Swine Flu, and similar over SARS (which to be fair was no joke). China was shunned and criticised by the world for its lack over transparency over SARS. There was never any chance they would react anything other than with an iron fist to another iteration.

bodhrandude · 15-02-2020 4:49pm

What happens if you try to punch the virus out of your body?

SusanC10 · 15-02-2020 4:53pm

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/15/world/asia/15reuters-china-health-malaysia.html

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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