new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

CinemaGuy45

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

:D:D:D
You did not agree with your own result I take it?:D

It is funny that very few people from the top six countries end up on the old scratcher.

Must be something in it.

Oh. I'm a stupid ****. Hence why I'm on this thread. But it doesn't actually measure intelligence. Education has an effect on it. So it doesn't actually measure innate intelligence.

saabsaab

Snow Garden wrote: »

More aware of what exactly?
Of the social media hype and hysteria?
Maybe it's because they are intelligent.

Aware of the developing situation and the latest facts! Not denying their intelligence but that didn't stop Doctors, nurses and careworkers dying in Wuhan did it?

tara73

tara73 wrote: »

yes, be careful. have a friend living in Beijing (also at the moment, poor pet), and they apparently spit constantly everywhere. Once someone spit on her leg accidentally, sitting in a bus..blergh

You can end up in jail in Singapore for spitting. Or doing anything antisocial. The Chinese government would do well to add spitting offence to their law-breaking intolerance.

CinemaGuy45

Deleted User wrote: »

Oh. I'm a stupid ****. Hence why I'm on this thread. But it doesn't actually measure intelligence. Education has an effect on it. So it doesn't actually measure innate intelligence.

How did I get into this tangent I am partly to blame also.

Somebody said pointing out what some dirty individuals in China were doing by spitting and wiping spit on surfaces was racist.

I was just pointing out how developed China was and having a go at SOME
dirty individuals is not racist or anti Chinese.

Sorry for being partially to blame for dragging this thread off topic.

Any chance of getting back on topic as I along with most other people are just trying to figure out how likely we are to be hit by this thing and how bad it will be.:)

bodhrandude

Some South Korean reports about North Korea. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-reportedly-spread-north-korea-163908984.html

Kermit.de.frog

Main United States quarantine centres.

https://twitter.com/GeopoliticalJD/status/1228738596183695361

CinemaGuy45

bodhrandude wrote: »

Some South Korean reports about North Korea. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-reportedly-spread-north-korea-163908984.html

Great that is all we needed not.

fr336

Sad to see comments here and elsewhere discarding older people getting this - as long as everyone else is fine, no problem. Do you not have parents or grandparents? I'm not worried about myself - I'm only just in my 30s - but am worried about relatives. Of course there are always risks for older people, but a pandemic is a bloody unlucky way to go.

tara73

fr336 wrote: »

Sad to see comments here and elsewhere discarding older people getting this - as long as everyone else is fine, no problem. Do you not have parents or grandparents? I'm not worried about myself - I'm only just in my 30s - but am worried about relatives. Of course there are always risks for older people, but a pandemic is a bloody unlucky way to go.

following this thread quite closely and havn't seen one remark discarding older people..??

wakka12

tara73 wrote: »

following this thread quite closely and havn't seen one remark discarding older people..??

Maybe nobody said it outright but you hear it a lot' why is anyone making a fuss about this? Its overhyped, the only people are dying are 60+', that kind thing. Personally I dont see how the mortality rate in 60+ being high is any reassurance, most people in their 60's are pefectly healthy under normal circumstances and should be able to fend off a virus easily

BloodBath

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

It's been said here and loads of other places that they're not great for containment. Aside from psychologically, you will let your guard down more easily if you think they're protecting you. They get clogged with dirt and particles and become disgusting and unusable. You'll stop a cough or sneeze with the crook of your elbow more hygienically and then don't touch it or people and wash your clothes on a hot wash straight away when you're home. It sounds looney but it's the only practice that will really keep you protected.

A load of people laughed at me a few days ago when I wouldn't shake their hands, saying "because of the coronavirus, I'd say we should get out of the habit of doing that for a while". I pretended I was joking along with them at the time, to not wreck the buzz, but it made me conscious of the fact that people really aren't taking it seriously. A trainee doctor even went to shake my head when I went in the other day. Fck that.

Crucial hand hygiene practices and staying back from people, if you have to go in public during an outbreak, are the only way you'll even be in with a chance of avoiding it. Everyone should have the option to stay at home today anyway, the weather is crap and everyone is dying :rolleyes:.

wakka12 wrote: »

Interesting. But if theres no evidence it spreads more than influenze or is more dangerous, why do China and other Asian countries continue to implement such extreme measures with indefinite timespan, surely scientists in Asian countries would have made Asian governments aware of this information by now? Does anyone know what the hospital mortality rate for flu is?

9-10% Corona currently 15% and falling which put's it currently around 1.5 times deadlier than the flu. Pretty far off the 250 some here were claiming.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Extreme measures are in place because the death rate is way higher than 2%, the data is out there, you just need a calculator

2% death rate means that out of 100 people, 2 people died and 98 people recovered
At the moment however out of 100 people we have 2 deaths, 13 recovered and 85 still sick

It's been pointed out a million times already that this number does not take into account unconfirmed cases which would way outnumber confirmed ones as the flu figures do. It's far below 2%

dublin99 wrote: »

The death rate in China is much higher. People are not tested and therefore not diagnosed (officially) and many people die at home as they are not admitted to hospital. These deaths are not included in the official figures.

In many cases whole families are infected. In Hong Kong in a high rise block, it was spread through the sewage pipes from a man who lived in flat on a high floor to a woman ten floors below. She then infected her son and daughter in law. The daughter in law had a family dinner in a restaurant in a different part of town and infected her father and other relatives!

The problem is it can spread before any symptoms are noticed as incubation is up to 14 days. In fact on the Diamond Princess,of the latest group of 67 (out of 287 cases) 38 cases had no symptoms at all so they can be "invisible" carriers of the virus!

By the same logic a lot more unaccounted for are surviving than dying. Most who are sick enough to be near death will be hospitalised. Those who recover won't be. Do you think family and friends will just let their loved ones die at home? They are rounding up people for coughing or not wearing face masks.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The data is out there, if you want to know your chances of survival in case you get infected the best thing to do it taking a calculator and work out the rate. You have total deaths, Total infected, total survivals. It ultimately boils down to how you want to look at data

There's a right and wrong way to look at the data. You are looking at it wrong.

wakka12

BloodBath wrote: »

9-10% Corona currently 15% and falling which put's it currently around 1.5 times deadlier than the flu. Pretty far off the 250 some here were claiming. Still enough to take precautions though. Not knocking anyone for that.



It's been pointed out a million times already that this number does not take into account unconfirmed cases which would way outnumber confirmed ones as the flu figures do. It's far below 2%



By the same logic a lot more unaccounted for are surviving than dying. Most who are sick enough to be near death will be hospitalised. Those who recover won't be. Do you think family and friends will just let their loved ones die at home? They are rounding up people for coughing or not wearing face masks.



There's a right and wrong way to look at the data. You are looking at it wrong.

I only heard one person claim it was 250 times times more deadly than flu on this thread. Corona looks to have a mortality rate between 0.4% and 2.2%, with the lower estimate being still 4 times more lethal than regular flu.The mortality rate internationally and in china outside Hubei are both 0.4%, with a severe complication rate of between 4-10%. These figures appear reliable as its thought the international cases are accuately monitored. It is not known how many unconfirmed cases there are in China and its actually pretty unlikely that it is a huge number given the fact that you can be very harshly legally prosecuted for not admitting yourself to hospital if you show any symptoms of a flu, you also will have your name recorded if buying any flu meds. It looks like coronavirus is less dangerous than first thought but still considerably greater danger than seasonal flu.

There is currently no danger in Ireland as there is no cases, and its unlikely to experience an outbreak soon. But the Wuhan death rate shows how dangerous this flu can be when there are a large number of cases and the hospitals are inundated. If I lived in Japan or Singapore, I would be concerned for older relatives. And of course China's healthcare is not even bad, it represents a very significant danger to developing countries with high population densities and poor healthcare, hence the harsh measures introduced in countries bordering China

bb12

wakka12 wrote: »

I only heard one person claim it was 250 times times more deadly than flu on this thread. Corona looks to have a mortality rate between 0.4% and 2.2%, with the lower estimate being still 4 times more lethal than regular flu.The mortality rate internationally and in china outside Hubei are both 0.4%, which a severe complication rate of between 4-10%. These figures appear reliable as its thought the international cases are accuarely monitored. It is not known how many unconfirmed cases there are in China and its actually pretty unlikely that it is a huge number given the fact that you can now be legally prosecuted for not admitting yourself to hospital if you show any symptoms of a flu. It looks like coronavirus is less dangerous than first thought but still considerably greater danger than seasonal flu.

accepted flu mortality rate is .01%, so even if coronus rate was 0.4% it would still be 40 times more deadlier, not 4

fritzelly

bb12 wrote: »

accepted flu mortality rate is .01%, so even if coronus rate was 0.4% it would still be 40 times more deadlier, not 4

Lot of people have problems with maths - it's 4 times

Misread the post

s7ryf3925pivug

fritzelly wrote: »

Lot of people have problems with maths - it's 4 times

No he was right.

bb12

bb12 wrote: »

accepted flu mortality rate is .01%, so even if coronus rate was 0.4% it would still be 40 times more deadlier, not 4

Too small a sample range really to prove one way or the other.

bb12

fritzelly wrote: »

Lot of people have problems with maths - it's 4 times

.01 is 1/100
0.4 is 40/100

fritzelly

bb12 wrote: »

.01 is 1/100
0.4 is 40/100

Yeah sorry, thought you wrote 0.1

wakka12

Is seasonal flu really just 0.01%? Hm maybe I can see why governments are reacting so dramatically then

Mic 1972

2% mortality means that out of 100 people, 2 people die and 98 live
This is not the case with covid-19
So far out of 100 people, 2 people died, 13 lived and 85 are still sick
the mortality rate will be 2% only if all 85 live, why is it so difficult to understand?

ZX7R

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% mortality means that out of 100 people, 2 people die and 98 live
This is not the case with covid-19
So far out of 100 people, 2 people died, 13 lived and 85 are still sick
the mortality rate will be 2% only if all 85 live, why is it so difficult to understand?

Because until we know what happens to the other 85% , the stats really don't make much of a difference

wakka12

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% mortality means that out of 100 people, 2 people die and 98 live
This is not the case with covid-19
So far out of 100 people, 2 people died, 13 lived and 85 are still sick
the mortality rate will be 2% only if all 85 live, why is it so difficult to understand?

Because it is likely the 85% will live, seeing as that is what happened with earlier samples. The death rate is remaining constant, rather than going up, meaning about 2 in every 100 are dying in every sample of that size

BloodBath

bb12 wrote: »

accepted flu mortality rate is .01%, so even if coronus rate was 0.4% it would still be 40 times more deadlier, not 4

It's 0.1% aka 1 in 1000.

bb12 wrote: »

.01 is 1/100
0.4 is 40/100

1% is 1/100
0.1% is 1/1,000
0.01% is 1/10,000

0.4% is 4/1,000 or 1/250

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

2% mortality means that out of 100 people, 2 people die and 98 live
This is not the case with covid-19
So far out of 100 people, 2 people died, 13 lived and 85 are still sick
the mortality rate will be 2% only if all 85 live, why is it so difficult to understand?

You are unbelievably stupid.

igCorcaigh

wakka12 wrote: »

Is seasonal flu really just 0.01%? Hm maybe I can see why governments are reacting so dramatically then

What was the cfr of the 1918 Spanish flu?
Around 2.5%, similar to COVID19?

Difficult to determine the 1918 cfr though, I think it varied a lot.

And it was the second wave a year later that caused a lot of fatalities.

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

You are unbelievably stupid.

No, he's quoting the only ACTUAL stats we have...
People here are saying there LOADs at home getting mild doses and not being recorded! Really? With neighbours paid to report anyone who coughs?
There are crematorium workers and nurses recorded saying the majority of deaths are not reported as Coronavirus. We have front line workers jailed for not toeing the party line. But all this isheresay and not verifiable.

We have 2 people in the western world who tested positive without symptoms. Just 2. (Open to correction if there are more?)

The ONLY facts we have are reported on worldometer. Everything else is speculation. Both for better, and for worse.
So, looking at the ACTUAL stats to hand, how is that stupid?

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

You are unbelievably stupid.

excuse me?

bb12

BloodBath wrote: »

It's 0.1% aka 1 in 1000.



1% is 1/100
0.1% is 1/1,000
0.01% is 1/10,000

0.4% is 4/1,000 or 1/250

what are you on about?
i was explaining to the previous poster that 0.4 was 40 times more than 0.01 when he thought it was only 4 times greater

i wasn't talking about infection or mortality rate

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

No, he's quoting the only ACTUAL stats we have...
People here are saying there LOADs at home getting mild doses and not being recorded! Really? With neighbours paid to report anyone who coughs?
There are crematorium workers and nurses recorded saying the majority of deaths are not reported as Coronavirus. We have front line workers jailed for not toeing the party line. But all this isheresay and not verifiable.

We have 2 people in the western world who tested positive without symptoms. Just 2. (Open to correction if there are more?)

The ONLY facts we have are reported on worldometer. Everything else is speculation. Both for better, and for worse.
So, looking at the ACTUAL stats to hand, how is that stupid?

Because it's stupid.

I posted earlier stating that with his logic, influenza kills 9% of the people it infects. We don't need fearmongerers during a crisis like this.

SeaBreezes

Deleted User wrote: »

Because it's stupid.

I posted earlier stating that with his logic, influenza kills 9% of the people it infects. We don't need fearmongerers during a crisis like this.

We need ostriches even less :-)