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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #5342
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    saabsaab wrote:
    I read a report of a study on emergency disaster situations and the usual case is that first warnings are dismissed second warnings are told to shut up and then it hits and its too late.
    That's also the start of every disaster movie ever.


  • #5343
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Captain Smith ignored seven iceberg warnings from his crew and other ships. If he had called for the ship to slow down then maybe the Titanic disaster would not have happened. .


  • #5344
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    MD1990 wrote: »
    I've tried to be optimistic.
    but someone in London with the virus is a disaster.
    everything will shutdown in 2-3 weeks
    hope I'm wrong
    Not unrealistic, but moreso months: once a single infected subject grabs any near door rail on any morning service circle-lane tube, before alighting.
    Martina1991 wrote: »
    That's also the start of every disaster movie ever.
    Also what the WHO have just done in deciding (today), again not to class this as a pandemic.

    Not sure about the e-cigs, but anyone smoking 20/day and perhaps swilling a couple of lagers per night would be advised not to if they want to see the Trump man get re-elected in Nov '20.


  • #5345
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Captain Smith ignored seven iceberg warnings from his crew and other ships. If he had called for the ship to slow down then maybe the Titanic disaster would not have happened. .

    Met Éireann said nothing about icebergs. 2020 is going from bad to worse.


  • #5346
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,430 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Captain Smith ignored seven iceberg warnings from his crew and other ships. If he had called for the ship to slow down then maybe the Titanic disaster would not have happened. .

    Or if the ships supposedly self contained compartments actually were watertight... she would have survived the hit.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • #5347
    saabsaab
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,722 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Has SS Eire a Captain Smyth at the Helm? Are our watertight compartments able to cope?


  • #5348
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »
    Not sure about the e-cigs, but anyone smoking 20/day and perhaps swilling a couple of lagers per night would be advised not to if they want to see the Trump man get re-elected in Nov '20.
    Actually according to the Chinese doctors and researchers on the ground there is a score of sorts that tends to influence outcome. Things like older age, diabetes, chronic conditions and the like add different points to that score. The scale is out of 12. If you are at or above 12 then much more likely serious illness will follow. Can't recall if they mentioned alcohol(though a dicky liver wouldn't help), but current smoking adds 3 to the score. Ex smokers can add 2, so giving up while a very very sensible thing to do won't reduce one's risk so much.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #5349
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Again I'll ask for a source as the multiple places I've checked have said no. At least with influenza. Is it different for corona?

    The only thing I could find is this which states certain individuals can which I said earlier. Those with weak immune systems.

    https://futurism.com/neoscope/scientists-warn-coronavirus-more-than-once

    You can catch the flu one year and catch again the next year. It's does change around a good bit hence why you have to get the flu vaccine every year.


  • #5350
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Agreed. The economic fallout from a full blown pandemic will be far higher. Global supply chains will be hit.

    This man speaks the truth. A lot of the base materials for medicines are sourced in China. A factory blew up in China last year and there was no tazocin for about 4 months.


  • #5351
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
    CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.


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  • #5352
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    4 patients in Hong Kong now critical, 2 now serious. Yesterday all were stable. Combined with 6 new critical cases internationally also. Is a large increase outside China in one day. If the the number of cases outside China are as accurate as is it is to believed then it is certainly considerably more dangerous than flu and is hospitalising at least one in every 25 patients rather than around one in every 100 for flu.

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/


  • #5353
    hurikane
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 692 ✭✭✭hurikane


    wakka12 wrote: »
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
    CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

    When would it become a pandemic?


  • #5354
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    hurikane wrote: »
    When would it become a pandemic?

    Sustained local transmission on two continents simultaneously I think. Probably more to the definition but thats the gist of it


  • #5355
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    hurikane wrote: »
    When would it become a pandemic?


    https://www.infoplease.com/askeds/pandemic-vs-epidemic


  • #5356
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    A lot of the base materials for medicines are sourced in China.

    https://twitter.com/FluTrackers/status/1227692170548826113?s=19

    https://twitter.com/FluTrackers/status/1227695500268363778?s=19


  • #5357
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    wakka12 wrote: »
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
    CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

    Doesn't help when they were sending out faulty test kits to the US states and 30 other countries


  • #5358
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Ten thousand people locked down just 25 miles away. Was hoping this week would be less dramatic so I could go back to work next week.


    christ, i was planning on going to vietnam in april.

    edit; what do you think about the government stipend btw?

    edit2; those poor teachers who live month to month. that is seriously rough.


  • #5359
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    wakka12 wrote: »
    4 patients in Hong Kong now critical, 2 now serious. Yesterday all were stable. Combined with 6 new critical cases internationally also. Is a large increase outside China in one day. If the the number of cases outside China are as accurate as is it is to believed then it is certainly considerably more dangerous than flu and is hospitalising at least one in every 25 patients rather than around one in every 100 for flu.

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

    Interesting.

    Hong Kong has 50 reported cases, but 4 critical.

    The estimate of serious cases was or is around 18%

    I'd like to see info on long it took for patients to move from detected to deceased. Sounds grim, I know, but just wondering on how the time lag could inform us on how dangerous this is.


  • #5360
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    wakka12 wrote: »
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
    CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

    Quick email them and tell them it's fine and they are over reacting according to some knowledgable posters on boards.


  • #5361
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,007 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    wakka12 wrote: »
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
    CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.
    We expect our current strategy to fail. When it fails, we will change our strategy.

    That means they want to implement stronger measures but don't have the political capital to do so until things get worse.


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  • #5362
    Ms2011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Ms2011


    Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?


  • #5363
    bb12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 888 ✭✭✭bb12


    The coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, Dr. Sylvie Briand, head of WHO’s Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, told reporters on Monday. About 15% of the people who contract the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care, she said.


    more confirmation of the stats being thrown around at the moment...so if 10,000 become infected, 1500 are gonna need oxygen support with 45-75 of those needing intensive care...from experience i know that beaumont hospital has 10 beds in the icu with a further overflow of 10 i believe. icu beds, around dublin at least, could be filled up very quickly without even taking into consideration normal every day emergencies...


  • #5364
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Ms2011 wrote: »
    Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?

    Any, diabetes was specifically mentioned for example, and also several unhealthy lifestyle factors such as smoking, being obese, and drinking a lot of alcohol are considered in the same way.


  • #5365
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Ms2011 wrote: »
    Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?

    High blood pressure and diabetes were reported.

    I don't know if thats because these conditions are more common in the elderly, or if they have a role in outcome.


  • #5366
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Ten thousand people locked down just 25 miles away. Was hoping this week would be less dramatic so I could go back to work next week.

    Stay safe Google

    :)


  • #5367
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    High blood pressure and diabetes were reported.

    I don't know if thats because these conditions are more common in the elderly, or if they have a role in outcome.

    I was wondering the same. Because I cant personally see or understand why diabetes would put you at greater risk of dying of pneumonia but I dont know much about it.


  • #5368
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Any, diabetes was specifically mentioned for example, and also several unhealthy lifestyle factors such as smoking, being obese, and drinking a lot of alcohol are considered in the same way.

    That's me done for then :)


  • #5369
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    creditcarder wrote: »
    edit; what do you think about the government stipend btw?

    Don't have much of an opinion on the stipend. It's not much but it is easily enough to eat. $35,000+/day is no joke for a relatively poor country. The government saying they'll pay all costs for anyone getting the virus is good I suppose.


  • #5370
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    wakka12 wrote: »
    I was wondering the same. Because I cant personally see or understand why diabetes would put you at greater risk of dying of pneumonia but I dont know much about it.

    So, I've heard that increased sugar in the blood can interfere with oxygen supply in the air sacs. Could be speculative. I'm not an expert.

    Air sacs = alveoli in the lungs. In viral pneumonia, they fill with fluid, stopping their function.

    This is because the cells that line these tiny air sacs get destroyed by the virus, or the body's reaction to the virus, so they get filled with holes, and get leaky. So they fill with fluid.

    Any other process that depletes the supply of oxygen to the body will contribute to this process

    For example, having high blood pressure will force more fluid in to the air sacs. Making them more leaky, more water gets in. And that blocks oxygen getting in to the blood. Without oxygen, your organs start to fail.

    One of the methods to treat this condition is to pump blood from the body through an external machine, which puts oxygen into the blood, and then pumps the blood back into you. Essentially, doing the job of the lungs.


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  • #5371
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I'm a bit reassured that we haven't seen chains of sustained h2h, seems to be a few superspreaders from Asia, but transmission then seems to stop.Next couple of weeks should tell a lot.

    This from the tweet linked earlier. I've seen the similar modeling elsewhere.

    Regarding spread of the disease
    About six weeks ago, China was reporting on the first 41 cases of confirmed #coronavirus in that country. Singapore and Hong Kong have now each hit 50 cases. Modeling suggests that the time from first introduction to epidemic spread is about 10* weeks.

    *I would suggest that might be less - the Chinese goverment was initially slow to acknowledge what medical personnel were telling them.

    Regarding the progression of the disease in people - there seems to be a lag time of approx 3 weeks (low estimate) between infection- recovery or else progression to severe symptoms.


This discussion has been closed.
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