new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Wibbs · 12-02-2020 09:50PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Not sure about the e-cigs, but anyone smoking 20/day and perhaps swilling a couple of lagers per night would be advised not to if they want to see the Trump man get re-elected in Nov '20.

Actually according to the Chinese doctors and researchers on the ground there is a score of sorts that tends to influence outcome. Things like older age, diabetes, chronic conditions and the like add different points to that score. The scale is out of 12. If you are at or above 12 then much more likely serious illness will follow. Can't recall if they mentioned alcohol(though a dicky liver wouldn't help), but current smoking adds 3 to the score. Ex smokers can add 2, so giving up while a very very sensible thing to do won't reduce one's risk so much.

12-02-2020 09:58PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Again I'll ask for a source as the multiple places I've checked have said no. At least with influenza. Is it different for corona?

The only thing I could find is this which states certain individuals can which I said earlier. Those with weak immune systems.

https://futurism.com/neoscope/scientists-warn-coronavirus-more-than-once

You can catch the flu one year and catch again the next year. It's does change around a good bit hence why you have to get the flu vaccine every year.

12-02-2020 10:00PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Agreed. The economic fallout from a full blown pandemic will be far higher. Global supply chains will be hit.

This man speaks the truth. A lot of the base materials for medicines are sourced in China. A factory blew up in China last year and there was no tazocin for about 4 months.

wakka12 · 12-02-2020 10:04PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

wakka12 · 12-02-2020 10:08PM

4 patients in Hong Kong now critical, 2 now serious. Yesterday all were stable. Combined with 6 new critical cases internationally also. Is a large increase outside China in one day. If the the number of cases outside China are as accurate as is it is to believed then it is certainly considerably more dangerous than flu and is hospitalising at least one in every 25 patients rather than around one in every 100 for flu.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

hurikane · 12-02-2020 10:08PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

When would it become a pandemic?

wakka12 · 12-02-2020 10:09PM

hurikane wrote: »

When would it become a pandemic?

Sustained local transmission on two continents simultaneously I think. Probably more to the definition but thats the gist of it

cameramonkey · 12-02-2020 10:11PM

hurikane wrote: »

When would it become a pandemic?

https://www.infoplease.com/askeds/pandemic-vs-epidemic

igCorcaigh · 12-02-2020 10:13PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A lot of the base materials for medicines are sourced in China.

https://twitter.com/FluTrackers/status/1227692170548826113?s=19

https://twitter.com/FluTrackers/status/1227695500268363778?s=19

fritzelly · 12-02-2020 10:13PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

Doesn't help when they were sending out faulty test kits to the US states and 30 other countries

creditcarder · 12-02-2020 10:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Ten thousand people locked down just 25 miles away. Was hoping this week would be less dramatic so I could go back to work next week.

christ, i was planning on going to vietnam in april.

edit; what do you think about the government stipend btw?

edit2; those poor teachers who live month to month. that is seriously rough.

igCorcaigh · 12-02-2020 10:18PM

wakka12 wrote: »

4 patients in Hong Kong now critical, 2 now serious. Yesterday all were stable. Combined with 6 new critical cases internationally also. Is a large increase outside China in one day. If the the number of cases outside China are as accurate as is it is to believed then it is certainly considerably more dangerous than flu and is hospitalising at least one in every 25 patients rather than around one in every 100 for flu.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Interesting.

Hong Kong has 50 reported cases, but 4 critical.

The estimate of serious cases was or is around 18%

I'd like to see info on long it took for patients to move from detected to deceased. Sounds grim, I know, but just wondering on how the time lag could inform us on how dangerous this is.

BanditLuke · 12-02-2020 10:19PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

Quick email them and tell them it's fine and they are over reacting according to some knowledgable posters on boards.

s7ryf3925pivug · 12-02-2020 10:23PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
CDC expect imminent epidemic in the US.

We expect our current strategy to fail. When it fails, we will change our strategy.

That means they want to implement stronger measures but don't have the political capital to do so until things get worse.

Ms2011 · 12-02-2020 10:26PM

Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?

bb12 · 12-02-2020 10:27PM

The coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, Dr. Sylvie Briand, head of WHO’s Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, told reporters on Monday. About 15% of the people who contract the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care, she said.

more confirmation of the stats being thrown around at the moment...so if 10,000 become infected, 1500 are gonna need oxygen support with 45-75 of those needing intensive care...from experience i know that beaumont hospital has 10 beds in the icu with a further overflow of 10 i believe. icu beds, around dublin at least, could be filled up very quickly without even taking into consideration normal every day emergencies...

wakka12 · 12-02-2020 10:27PM

Ms2011 wrote: »

Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?

Any, diabetes was specifically mentioned for example, and also several unhealthy lifestyle factors such as smoking, being obese, and drinking a lot of alcohol are considered in the same way.

igCorcaigh · 12-02-2020 10:28PM

Ms2011 wrote: »

Is it any chronic condition that increases your risk of complications or is it just chronic conditions that effect the respiratory system that are risk?

High blood pressure and diabetes were reported.

I don't know if thats because these conditions are more common in the elderly, or if they have a role in outcome.

12-02-2020 10:29PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ten thousand people locked down just 25 miles away. Was hoping this week would be less dramatic so I could go back to work next week.

Stay safe Google

wakka12 · 12-02-2020 10:30PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

High blood pressure and diabetes were reported.

I don't know if thats because these conditions are more common in the elderly, or if they have a role in outcome.

I was wondering the same. Because I cant personally see or understand why diabetes would put you at greater risk of dying of pneumonia but I dont know much about it.

igCorcaigh · 12-02-2020 10:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Any, diabetes was specifically mentioned for example, and also several unhealthy lifestyle factors such as smoking, being obese, and drinking a lot of alcohol are considered in the same way.

That's me done for then

12-02-2020 10:31PM

creditcarder wrote: »

edit; what do you think about the government stipend btw?

Don't have much of an opinion on the stipend. It's not much but it is easily enough to eat. $35,000+/day is no joke for a relatively poor country. The government saying they'll pay all costs for anyone getting the virus is good I suppose.

igCorcaigh · 12-02-2020 10:32PM

wakka12 wrote: »

I was wondering the same. Because I cant personally see or understand why diabetes would put you at greater risk of dying of pneumonia but I dont know much about it.

So, I've heard that increased sugar in the blood can interfere with oxygen supply in the air sacs. Could be speculative. I'm not an expert.

Air sacs = alveoli in the lungs. In viral pneumonia, they fill with fluid, stopping their function.

This is because the cells that line these tiny air sacs get destroyed by the virus, or the body's reaction to the virus, so they get filled with holes, and get leaky. So they fill with fluid.

Any other process that depletes the supply of oxygen to the body will contribute to this process

For example, having high blood pressure will force more fluid in to the air sacs. Making them more leaky, more water gets in. And that blocks oxygen getting in to the blood. Without oxygen, your organs start to fail.

One of the methods to treat this condition is to pump blood from the body through an external machine, which puts oxygen into the blood, and then pumps the blood back into you. Essentially, doing the job of the lungs.

gozunda · 12-02-2020 10:32PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm a bit reassured that we haven't seen chains of sustained h2h, seems to be a few superspreaders from Asia, but transmission then seems to stop.Next couple of weeks should tell a lot.

This from the tweet linked earlier. I've seen the similar modeling elsewhere.

Regarding spread of the disease

About six weeks ago, China was reporting on the first 41 cases of confirmed #coronavirus in that country. Singapore and Hong Kong have now each hit 50 cases. Modeling suggests that the time from first introduction to epidemic spread is about 10* weeks.

*I would suggest that might be less - the Chinese goverment was initially slow to acknowledge what medical personnel were telling them.

Regarding the progression of the disease in people - there seems to be a lag time of approx 3 weeks (low estimate) between infection- recovery or else progression to severe symptoms.

wakka12 · 12-02-2020 10:32PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's me done for then

Ah I'm sure youll be fine. Being over 60 appears to be the greatest risk factor. The majority of people in the world have an 'underlying condition' , an unhealthy lifestyle, and often both and still the vast majority who caught the virus have survived. It just increases your chances a bit of having complications

Ms2011 · 12-02-2020 10:33PM

Hmmm, have an autoimmune disease myself so my immune system is already prone to be a bit hyper, though I'm not on any immunosupressents at the moment. Bit concerned how I would deal with something like this.

ceadaoin. · 12-02-2020 10:43PM

fritzelly wrote: »

It's China round 2

Is it though? If only china had started the quarantine after only 5 cases. Seems like theres more chance of countries getting it under control sooner when measures like that are implemented quickly.

josip · 12-02-2020 10:44PM

Flying via Frankfurt on Friday and coming back 10 days later.
Not overly concerned about that, but I'll be taking reasonable precautions.

Everything booked to go see Messi for the first time in Barcelona in April.
Up to now injury had been my main concern

At least MWC has been cancelled, but will have to decide closer to the time if it's too risky.

BanditLuke · 12-02-2020 10:45PM

Ms2011 wrote: »

Hmmm, have an autoimmune disease myself so my immune system is already prone to be a bit hyper, though I'm not on any immunosupressents at the moment. Bit concerned how I would deal with something like this.

Sorry to hear that. A lot of people are concerned and worried. Self isolation will be the best way to deal with it for many but won't be possible for some.

My parent's for example are both elderly and I've got them the necessary equipment to deal with an extended stay in the home as well as food supplies. The way I see it is why take a chance if nothing happens great but if not they'll use the food stuffs and the masks etc...cost very little two weeks ago when I got them so no loss.

Unfortunately like a lot of experts have being saying for weeks now its not the condition that's going to be the problem its health care systems inability to deal with the numbers that will be sick that is the problem.

givyjoe · 12-02-2020 10:47PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Is it though? If only china had started the quarantine after only 5 cases. Seems like theres more chance of countries getting it under control sooner when measures like that are implemented quickly.

Except there is no chance of any other country (except north Korea) will adopt, or adhere to, such measures.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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