GE2020 Mod Note in First Post

opinionated3 · 25-01-2020 08:50AM

ger664 wrote: »

So you prefer capitalist empire

Well let's be honest here, pbf and the greens as well will just tax large multinationals and corporations to death meaning they will probably pull out of our country. I work for one multinational so I'd like to hold on to my job. The likes of Boyd Barrett absolutely turn my stomach. So yeah, I won't be voting for that lady in Clare.....

Johnboy1951 · 25-01-2020 11:13AM

opinionated3 wrote: »

Well let's be honest here, pbf and the greens as well will just tax large multinationals and corporations to death meaning they will probably pull out of our country. I work for one multinational so I'd like to hold on to my job. The likes of Boyd Barrett absolutely turn my stomach. So yeah, I won't be voting for that lady in Clare.....

The law of diminishing returns applies ...... this would not happen.

No one or party have that sort of power in Ireland.

What I do want to see is a more just society, where large corporations are not treated better than the actual citizens and where they pay their just tax IN FULL.

Mine is a forlorn hope I know ......

Deagol · 25-01-2020 10:12PM

fire_man wrote: »

Who do you predict will be elected in Clare.
My 4 would be Dooley,Breen,Carey and Crowe.

Had Martin Conway at the door last night - came across as honest, passionate and intelligent man - I'd definitely consider him over Carey and Dooley. But I have no idea if he's a serious contender?

BnB · 27-01-2020 11:53AM

Clareman wrote: »

If I was a betting man I would be putting a few bob on McNamara, I don't think Carey is as guaranteed a seat as 1/3 and I think the FF & FG votes are going to be split between the 3 candidates, both parties are making a mistake running 3 in my opinion.

I'd agree with all that. I think Dooley and Breen will get back in alright, but after that neither FF or FG will be guaranteed a 2nd seat.

I think Crowe will do well. Him being in the news recently RE the RIC debacle won't have done him any harm.

I also think (and hope to be honest) that Michael Mc will do very well. He is well liked in East Clare and will pick up a good share of the vote. My fear is that the East Clare vote alone without a party backing might not be enough for him.

Clareman · 27-01-2020 12:04PM

If McNamara, Dooley and Crowe get in this is a very east Clare heavy representation, would really show how the balance of power in the county has shifted from mid/west to the east.

Clareman · 27-01-2020 12:05PM

Just merged 2 General Election threads together.

golfball37 · 27-01-2020 01:11PM

I'm voting for Michael Leahy. Only candidate who says recidivist criminals walking free to further terrorise communities needs to be tackled. Also not afraid to call out the PC scutter that is designed to rob people of opinions.

I will vote down the card then to anyone bar FFG, hopefully my number 6 will contribute to MacNamara getting a seat at their expense. I would love us not to return 4 govt seats but I fear we will.

BnB · 27-01-2020 02:21PM

Clareman wrote: »

If McNamara, Dooley and Crowe get in this is a very east Clare heavy representation, would really show how the balance of power in the county has shifted from mid/west to the east.

Fair point. Would be a serious stretch for 3 East Clare's to get in. I would see Crowe getting in ahead of Michael Mac as he has a heavily populated home ground in NE Clare and having the advantage of a party behind him.

Mac has to share his home soil with Dooley and Dooley obviously has a lot of support there. Add in the amount of FG votes that will be pulled in East Clare based on party loyalty and on the back of support for Joe Cooney, Mac will need to pull a lot of votes outside of East Clare to get him over the line. That might be a bit much of an ask. I'd say his only hope is that FG in particular don't get their vote management right and he squeezes in, in 4th place.

The bookies probably have it right I'd say in Dooley, Breen, Carey, Crowe.

PHG · 27-01-2020 03:08PM

Agree not a huge selection or option.

Won't be home to vote (I pay my taxes in Ireland before it is brought up) but would probably go down the road of the general party not person (Parish pump politics) if I was. I have usually voted independent but cannot see them doing much. Giving it to the lads in Dublin doesn't cut it for me, all fart no follow through.

Labour barely exist, Greens are never heard of and PBP just reminds me of Steve Carell in Anchorman in the scene where he shouts "Loud Noises".

My main concern is our countries Debt to GDP/GNP ratio (thank whoever is up there for the NTMA, they saved us big time), then our transport infrastructure, Green energy then health care and the rest.

May sound harsh but freeing up the debt gives us more money to spend on other areas. A good public transport (yes this is primarily Dublin) means less pollution and easier commutes, investment in Green tech like wave energy or leasing nuclear energy from France/UK until we are up to speed would mean we could sell it off once developed and so on...

I am not saying healthcare is not important and still requires developing and investment (the childrens hospital should be a priority for health investment) but I mean 10+ years down the line. Whoever gets in now will likely be there for 2 or 3 terms and will have the space to look more forward.

Johnboy1951 · 27-01-2020 03:16PM

What worries me is that historically when FF had their way in gov they overspent and got the country into trouble, only to lose power (by design some might believe) and let other parties introduce measures to get back to a sound financial footing.
Of course after this was done the voters again voted in FF only for the cycle to start over.

I just might vote to try to prevent this arising again, although I have a serious dislike of FG policies.

Stuxnet · 27-01-2020 05:52PM

How do I vote to do FF/FG the most damage ?

Johnboy1951 · 27-01-2020 06:16PM

Stuxnet wrote: »

How do I vote to do FF/FG the most damage ?

I think you cannot ....... damage one and the other benefits.

I am coming around to the belief that one of them will create the next gov so all we can do is express our opinion by choosing the least objectionable option.

At this moment I would lean towards FG for several reasons ...
NBP is signed in spite of delays and objections from many who now claim they will implement it (not that they have much choice).
The country's finances are in better shape than they have been for a decade ..... yes sure not all (or even most) of that is down to FG, but at least they did not over spend.

On the negative side they have a dismal record with health, homelessness and housing amongst others, but if they are returned for another term they have no excuse whatsoever for failing to deal fully with these crises.

As an aside ...... would it not be nice to hear a debate between the main 'movers' stating clearly what they will actually do, rather than the usual blaming all around them for past failures. Its not as if any of them have no blemish!
I expect to hear more of the same BS tonight ..... blaming all that went before!

Just tell us how YOU will fix it!

Clareman · 27-01-2020 06:35PM

Stuxnet wrote: »

How do I vote to do FF/FG the most damage ?

Vote 1-15 with the people you don't want to get your vote at 15 all the way up.

Marty Xavier · 28-01-2020 02:27PM

Greens will do well I think. Saw McNamara and Garvey canvasing at the match Sunday, still think they will be in the shakeup.

opinionated3 · 28-01-2020 02:36PM

The greens will do well??? If that happens I hope people aren't back on boards in a few years time complaining about all the tax they have to pay, on top of what they're currently paying...... The more I hear the more I believe we are one silly race of people. These are the same clowns who told us all to buy diesels..... Sure let's return them to power now and see what other made up rubbish they can peddle to get more money out of our pockets

davidjtaylor · 28-01-2020 06:11PM

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

The law of diminishing returns applies ...... this would not happen.

No one or party have that sort of power in Ireland.

What I do want to see is a more just society, where large corporations are not treated better than the actual citizens and where they pay their just tax IN FULL.

Mine is a forlorn hope I know ......

Apparently paying their tax will not force Apple out, I've heard.

Any company that wants to take advantage of a well-educated workforce but pay no tax should be booted out anyway.

28-01-2020 06:12PM

opinionated3 wrote: »

I'll be spoiling my vote unfortunately. I can't/don't trust any of them. Don't understand this blind party loyalty that some people have either, they shafted you before, they'll probably do so again so why give them your vote. If you vote for FF or fine Gael, IMO you are part of a bigger problem. The type who will give out yards in the pub about high property tax, Shannon airport in the doldrums, patients stuck on trolleys in record numbers, but then vote the same clowns back in again. Sometimes I think we are one stupid race of people but then I realise there is no real viable alternative. Depressing.

I relate to your frustration but, with respect, don't think spoiling your vote or not voting is the way to go. Does my head in every time there's an election but do the best I can to suss out the candidates and pick who I judge to be the best, irrespective of party lines. Not that I have often been right in terms of what they delivered, how hard they worked, how seriously they took it. A vote is still a precious commodity though.

davidjtaylor · 28-01-2020 06:14PM

Clareman wrote: »

Vote 1-15 with the people you don't want to get your vote at 15 all the way up.

Yes.

You don't have a lot of choice; most are a bunch of right-wingers, esp. FG, Renua and the dreaded Irish Freedom nutters.

Here's my current listing. I may shift David Barrett as I know more about him.

1 Theresa O’Donohoe - People Before Profit
2 Róisín Garvey - Greens
3 Violet-Anne Wynne - Sinn Fein
4 David Barrett - Independent
5 Michael McNamara - Independent ex-Labour
6 Joseph Woulfe - Independent ex-Labour/beef plan
7 Rita McInerney - Fianna Fáil
8 Cathal Crowe - Fianna Fáil
9 Timmy Dooley - Fianna Fáil
10 Trudi Leyden - Independent ex-Fine Gael
11 Joe Carey - Fine Gael
12,Pat Breen - Fine Gael
13 Martin Conway - Fine Gael
14 Conor O’Brien - Renua
15 Michael Leahy - Irish Freedom Party

davidjtaylor · 28-01-2020 06:17PM

Balagan1 wrote: »

I relate to your frustration but, with respect, don't think spoiling your vote or not voting is the way to go. Does my head in every time there's an election but do the best I can to suss out the candidates and pick who I judge to be the best, irrespective of party lines. Not that I have often been right in terms of what they delivered, how hard they worked, how seriously they took it. A vote is still a precious commodity though.

It's an old adage but true: if you don't vote, someone else is deciding on your behalf.

Use your vote to pick the 'least worst'.

maura2e · 29-01-2020 07:14AM

davidjtaylor wrote: »

Yes.

You don't have a lot of choice; most are a bunch of right-wingers, esp. FG, Renua and the dreaded Irish Freedom nutters.

Here's my current listing. I may shift David Barrett as I know more about him.

1 Theresa O’Donohoe - People Before Profit
2 Róisín Garvey - Greens
3 Violet-Anne Wynne - Sinn Fein
4 David Barrett - Independent
5 Michael McNamara - Independent ex-Labour
6 Joseph Woulfe - Independent ex-Labour/beef plan
7 Rita McInerney - Fianna Fáil
8 Cathal Crowe - Fianna Fáil
9 Timmy Dooley - Fianna Fáil
10 Trudi Leyden - Independent ex-Fine Gael
11 Joe Carey - Fine Gael
12,Pat Breen - Fine Gael
13 Martin Conway - Fine Gael
14 Conor O’Brien - Renua
15 Michael Leahy - Irish Freedom Party

I’m new to this & reading this thread to get a better understanding of the candidates running & how to vote strategically to make my vote count! I’m with you from 1-6 but will not give FFG a tick. Is this how we break the stranglehold of FFG if enough of us vote this way? I’m not sure why we would give them a tick if we don’t want them in government? Appreciate any feedback!!

golfball37 · 29-01-2020 07:44AM

maura2e wrote: »

I’m new to this & reading this thread to get a better understanding of the candidates running & how to vote strategically to make my vote count! I’m with you from 1-6 but will not give FFG a tick. Is this how we break the stranglehold of FFG if enough of us vote this way? I’m not sure why we would give them a tick if we don’t want them in government? Appreciate any feedback!!

Just vote for as many as you wish in numerical order. I always usually vote just 1,2 and 3 for example and leave rest blank. Some people just write a number 1 and leave it at that. I’m voting Leahy no 1, greens no 2, sf 3 and McNamara 4 this time. Rest blank. My vote will hopefully help McNamara unseat one of the FFG candidates without actually voting for him.

davidjtaylor · 29-01-2020 11:16AM

maura2e wrote: »

Is this how we break the stranglehold of FFG if enough of us vote this way? I’m not sure why we would give them a tick if we don’t want them in government? Appreciate any feedback!!

Not filling down effectively lowers the quota required - so FFG may get in anyway; you have to decide the 'least worst' of the three FF on offer and give them them transfer if it gets that far.

golfball37 · 29-01-2020 03:44PM

davidjtaylor wrote: »

Not filling down effectively lowers the quota required - so FFG may get in anyway; you have to decide the 'least worst' of the three FF on offer and give them them transfer if it gets that far.

It doesn't effect the quota. The quota is decided after it has been determined how many ballots have been cast and does not change.

Johnboy1951 · 29-01-2020 05:26PM

golfball37 wrote: »

It doesn't effect the quota. The quota is decided after it has been determined how many VALID ballots have been cast and does not change.

Small correction above.

@davidjtaylor ....... if only one is correctly marked the ballot is valid, provided not otherwise defaced.

maura2e · 29-01-2020 06:43PM

Tx so much for your guidance.... greatly appreciated & so will do that & keeping fingers crossed FGFF get a trouncing! :-)

Clareman · 29-01-2020 08:38PM

Lets pretend you want to vote the same as DavidJTaylor, but only want to go to 4 places (like below)
1 Theresa O’Donohoe - People Before Profit
2 Róisín Garvey - Greens
3 Violet-Anne Wynne - Sinn Fein
4 David Barrett - Independent

His vote will stay with Theresa O'Donoghue until she is knock out or elected, if she's elected any votes over the quota are only moved on, the quota is calculated by dividing the valid number of votes by 5 (number of candidates plus 1) and then adding 1 extra. Once Theresa is no longer in the mix her vote is passed to her second preference where it stays until the second preference is knocked out or elected, then it passes on, etc. etc. Now if it gets to the 5th count and all David has voted for are out then him vote is deemed non-transferable. If you want to make sure your vote goes the whole way through you should start your voting preference from bottom to top that way you can make sure that your vote is going to work for the whole election.

Looking at the last election, the votes cast was 57,407, 407 votes were spoilt so the valid count is 57,000, that divided by 5 is 11,400 so the quota is 11,401. Dooley got 10,215 first preferences but because those who were knocked out in the early rounds weren't fans of his he had to wait until the 7th count to get in, this is when another FF candidate got knocked out, she had 2,880 votes ~1,400 went to Dooley (more than double all transfers in the previous rounds) so he was elected the rest of her votes were split between most of the other candidates and the other FF candidate only got 400 transfers so that was a big reason that he didn't get elected. Looking at the other transfers when McNamara got knocked out his votes were transfered to mainly the FG candidates so they both got in.

Don't underestimate the power of a good vote management process by a party, chances are if a party has 3 candidates they'll need to have a good plan for transfers to happen and it can be difficult to get transfers from outside of the party but this is where local politics come to effect which is why I think having such a heavy East Clare ballot could split the vote and allow someone else to sneak in.

BnB · 30-01-2020 12:07PM

Hi Clareman. One thing I have never understood is surplus votes. As far as understand it, if the quota is 10k and lets say Timmy gets 11k 1st preference, then 1k of his votes are surplus. So those 1k votes go to the number 2's on them. Assuming all that is correct, my question is, how do they decide which 1k out of Timmys 11k are doled out?

golfball37 · 30-01-2020 01:09PM

BnB wrote: »

Hi Clareman. One thing I have never understood is surplus votes. As far as understand it, if the quota is 10k and lets say Timmy gets 11k 1st preference, then 1k of his votes are surplus. So those 1k votes go to the number 2's on them. Assuming all that is correct, my question is, how do they decide which 1k out of Timmys 11k are doled out?

This was on Indo website.

How do you distribute a surplus?
The most complex part of the counting process relates to the distribution of surplus votes.

When a candidate exceeds the quota on the first count, the second preferences on each of their ballots are examined. The votes above the quota are allocated to the remaining candidates in the field based on the ratio of second preferences which has been determined by the examination of the votes.

After the first count, only the votes above the quota are examined and used to decide the ratio for the allocation of the surplus votes.

Marty Xavier · 30-01-2020 01:33PM

Er what?

Clareman · 30-01-2020 01:54PM

Marty Xavier wrote: »

Er what?

Timmy gets knocked elected with 12k votes, 1k over quota. All 12k of his votes are reviewed and it's discovered that
20% of his votes have no second preference
40% go to McInerney
30% go to Crowe
10% go to McNamara

So his surplus results in McInerney getting 400 votes, Crowe 300, McNamara 100 and the rest deemed "non-tranferable"

It used to be a case (I think) that the presiding officer would take 1,000 of the surplus and just give the transfers based on that 1,000.

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GE2020 Mod Note in First Post