GE2020 *Mod Note in First Post*

Clareman

Breen will get Careys votes and could get the 4th seat but it'll be awful tight, I'll be heading up to the count later, always a great occasion

Banner2theend

Clareman wrote: »

Breen will get Careys votes and could get the 4th seat but it'll be awful tight, I'll be heading up to the count later, always a great occasion

Just as you posted the above, Carey now ahead of Breen. I hope to God though that McNamara will sneak in, at the expense of the two FG lads. It going to be a cliffhanger!

BnB

Mac could get a lot of early transfers from other independents / small parties as a lot of people voting for these would have been following the anyone but FF or FG mantra

False Prophet

12:48 – Latest tally update. 139 boxes of 180.

Barrett David (IND) 304
Breen Pat (FG) 4204
Carey Joe (FG) 4253
Conway Martin (FG) 1182
Crowe Cathal (FF) 6192
Dooley Timmy (FF) 5836
Garvey Roisin (GP) 4060
Leahy Michael (IFP) 507
Leyden Trudy (IND) 130
McInerney Rita (FF) 3553
McNamara Michael (IND) 5626
O’Brien Conor (REN) 142
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 843
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1037
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 6367

ger664

139 Boxes Tallied
Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 6367
Crowe Cathal (FF) 6192
Dooley Timmy (FF) 5836
McNamara Michael (IND) 5626
Carey Joe (FG) 4253
Breen Pat (FG) 4204
Garvey Roisin (GP) 4060
McInerney Rita (FF) 3553
Conway Martin (FG) 1182
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1037
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 843
Leahy Michael (IFP) 507
Barrett David (IND) 304
O’Brien Conor (REN) 142
Leyden Trudy (IND) 130


Was not expecting SF to poll so well. If FG dont get their transfers right they could be in trouble and return no seat.

Clareman

https://www.clareecho.ie/ge2020-live-clare-general-election-count/

Clare Echo have great coverage in fairness.

Looks like SF, 2 FF and between FG and Mc, Carey getting ahead of Breen is huge

ger664

All Boxes Talied

Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 8692
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8144
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7611
McNamara Michael (IND) 7228
Carey Joe (FG) 5588
Breen Pat (FG) 5308
Garvey Roisin (GP) 5519
McInerney Rita (FF) 4058
Conway Martin (FG) 2249
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1232
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 1173
Leahy Michael (IFP) 711
Barrett David (IND) 398
Leyden Trudy (IND) 203
O’Brien Conor (REN) 195

Banner2theend

Missing box from Kilmaley as of 2:55 pm has not been located! Edit: Just to confirm its the tallies that haven't been accounted for re Kilmaley box

Also the tally figures are 1800 wrong too!!

easypazz

Will McNamara challenge Dooley? Big green vote to distribute.

BnB

Clareman wrote: »

https://www.clareecho.ie/ge2020-live-clare-general-election-count/

Clare Echo have great coverage in fairness.

Looks like SF, 2 FF and between FG and Mc, Carey getting ahead of Breen is huge

Really great coverage from the Clare Echo in fairness to them.

It will be very interesting to see how far off the Quota SF are after the first count. People wouldn't expect them to be very transfer friendly so even if they top the poll after the 1st count, they could still end up in a fight for a seat.

LuckyGent88

Why is Clare so slow in counting these votes?

Same thing every election.

As someone from the outside looking in, the lack of support for the two FG candidates is very clear. They contributed nothing to Clare and they were just seats on the backbench with no influence.

We really need to get people into more powerful positions

Clareman

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Why is Clare so slow in counting these votes?

Same thing every election.

As someone from the outside looking in, the lack of support for the two FG candidates is very clear. They contributed nothing to Clare and they were just seats on the backbench with no influence.

We really need to get people into more powerful positions

If there's 2 FF candidates elected and FF are in power Dooley is almost guaranteed a full minister role

jackboy

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

As someone from the outside looking in, the lack of support for the two FG candidates is very clear. They contributed nothing to Clare and they were just seats on the backbench with no influence.

They are a complete and utter waste of space. Conway I thought was a good candidate and worth a shot but he polled badly also.

Mal-Adjusted

from talking to people at the count centre, it looks like it could go a number of ways. Roumer has it that V A-W isn't transfer friendly at all, M MC is very transfer friendly and that the 3 FG candidates will need to transfer extremely well to get a quota at all! it should all come down to when some of the bigger candidates are eliminated, but with 280 votes between 5th and 7th (according to the tallies), no wonder it's taking so long!

Clareman wrote: »

If there's 2 FF candidates elected and FF are in power Dooley is almost guaranteed a full minister role

Not a hope. You need to prove your worth, which means bringing your running mate over the line. at the moment it looks like the opposite.

LuckyGent88

Clareman wrote: »

If there's 2 FF candidates elected and FF are in power Dooley is almost guaranteed a full minister role

Don’t think so after all his voting shenanigans. Crowe will nearly have a better chance after the wave of support he has garnered

ger664

Clareman wrote: »

If there's 2 FF candidates elected and FF are in power Dooley is almost guaranteed a full minister role

Dooley wont get a position as he is out of favour and needed to top the poll today to have any chance.

ger664

First Count

Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 8987
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8355
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7763
McNamara Michael (IND) 7332
Carey Joe (FG) 5684
Garvey Roisin (GP) 5624
Breen Pat (FG) 5406
McInerney Rita (FF) 4136
Conway Martin (FG) 2285
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1218
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 1196
Leahy Michael (IFP) 704
Barrett David (IND) 400
Leyden Trudy (IND) 218
O’Brien Conor (REN) 187


Some points to ponder. It is very rare that someone outside the top 4 on the first count and having less then 50% of a quota of First Preferences gets elected.

FG need a very good vote transfer and hope the tallies prediction of little or no transfers to Wynne to pick up a seat

We may even end up in a situation where noone reaches the quota or the last 3 seats could be between 4 candidates (dooley Wynee McNamara & Carey)

Clareman

FG in big trouble here, strangley they'll want to have 2 of their candidates eliminated as soon as possible to get the third in, everyone being so far away from the quota suggests that most will be elected without meeting the target. Wynne will want Garvey knocked out as soon as possible to get ahead, Dooley & Crowe will want McInerney out to get them ahead, it could be days before anyone is elected let alone all 4

Johnboy1951

What is the quota?

Clareman

ger664 wrote: »

First Count

Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 8987
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8355
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7763
McNamara Michael (IND) 7332
Carey Joe (FG) 5684
Garvey Roisin (GP) 5624
Breen Pat (FG) 5406
McInerney Rita (FF) 4136
Conway Martin (FG) 2285
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1218
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 1196
Leahy Michael (IFP) 704
Barrett David (IND) 400
Leyden Trudy (IND) 218
O’Brien Conor (REN) 187


Some points to ponder. It is very rare that someone outside the top 4 on the first count and having less then 50% of a quota of First Preferences gets elected.

FG need a very good vote transfer and hope the tallies prediction of little or no transfers to Wynne to pick up a seat

We may even end up in a situation where noone reaches the quota or the last 3 seats could be between 4 candidates (dooley Wynee McNamara & Carey)

If Conway's votes for majority to Breen and Breen gets ahead of Garvey there is a chance that FG don't get anyone in.

At this stage I'd be tempted to say that the top 4 will get the seats

Clareman

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

What is the quota?

11,900

Clareman

Mal-Adjusted wrote: »

Not a hope. You need to prove your worth, which means bringing your running mate over the line. at the moment it looks like the opposite.

Bringing in a second seat is all that counts, in fact "sacrificing" your top of the poll running mate makes you even mroe of a party man, it has been said for years that if Willie O'Dea brought in a second candidate he'd have been given a bigger role

Clareman

https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/clare

34% went to FF and they look like getting 2 seats, FG got 22.5% and mightn't get anyone in, you've to love PR

ger664

Clareman wrote: »

If Conway's votes for majority to Breen and Breen gets ahead of Garvey there is a chance that FG don't get anyone in.

At this stage I'd be tempted to say that the top 4 will get the seats

Say a tweet earlier where Carey would get twice as many votes as Breen on Conways Transfer and McNamara picking up as many as Breen

Clareman

ger664 wrote: »

Say a tweet earlier where Carey would get twice as many votes as Breen on Conways Transfer and McNamara picking up as many as Breen

If Breen is eliminated before Garvey then Carey will get the majority of the transfers which could get him a seat, if Garvey is knocked out first then her transfer would be probably for McNamara and Wynne which could put them out of reach of Carey and Breens transfers.

I am assuming that McInerney transfers will all got to Dooley and Crowe and will push them safe

golfball37

VA Wynne not transfer friendly at all I’ve heard.

Clareman

golfball37 wrote: »

VA Wynne not transfer friendly at all I’ve heard.

Heard that from a few sources but she isnt going to be over taken by 4 others so shes guaranteed a seat I'd imagine

ger664

Clareman wrote: »

If Breen is eliminated before Garvey then Carey will get the majority of the transfers which could get him a seat, if Garvey is knocked out first then her transfer would be probably for McNamara and Wynne which could put them out of reach of Carey and Breens transfers.

I am assuming that McInerney transfers will all got to Dooley and Crowe and will push them safe

Would agree with this if Breen doesnt pass Garvey on Conways transfers Carey has a much better chance of a seat.

Clareman

Garvey has overtaken the 2 FG lads now and you'd imagine she'll be transfer friendly from the independents and smaller parties, if Conway transfers are mainly to Breen Carey could be in trouble.

Arent elections great craic, i didnt head up because of the weather

ger664

Third Count

Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 9063
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8402
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7783
McNamara Michael (IND) 7465
Garvey Roisin (GP) 5735
Carey Joe (FG) 5721
Breen Pat (FG) 5454
McInerney Rita (FF) 4179
Conway Martin (FG) 2310
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1285
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 1254
Leahy Michael (IFP) 807
Barrett David (IND) 0
Leyden Trudy (IND) 0
O’Brien Conor (REN) 0