new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

pc7 · 26-01-2020 09:04AM

UK foreign office advising their people to leave the region, is that not bad advice and will spread it? Getting a bit nervy if it keeps spreading, 1.4 billion on lockdown! That’s unfathomable.

thecretinhop · 26-01-2020 09:23AM

Did China Steal Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponize It | Zero Hedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it

volchitsa · 26-01-2020 09:29AM

Well if China weaponised it, they did a sh1te job, since it's mostly their own people and their own economy being damaged by it.

McGiver · 26-01-2020 09:52AM

McGiver wrote: »

AFAIK bats are posited to be implicated as intermediary hosts. With the all these Chinese origin pandemic (various influenza viruses HxNx, Sars etc) it's always down to pork and poultry. But yeah even with that there might be some let's say less than hygienic practices.

Now, HIV, Ebola and other nasty African stuff that's the real weird stuff. Read on hypotheses on how HIV got transmitted/transposed too humans...

I stand corrected...

The coronavirus cases have been linked to the South China Seafood Wholesale Market, in Wuhan.

But while some sea-going mammals can carry coronaviruses (such as the Beluga whale), the market also has live wild animals, including chickens, bats, rabbits, snakes, which are more likely to be the source.

Researchers say the new virus is closely related to one found in Chinese horseshoe bats.

26-01-2020 10:48AM

theguzman wrote: »

PC ALERT, it always a fake when it is the unpalatable truth. Its a well known fact that the Chinese will eat practically anything,

No, It's a ignorant generalisation. People in Guandong have a reputation for eating anything. You won't find such practices across the whole country. You're talking about a huge country with a massive population, and over 50 different ethnic cultures. Some are more traditional than others.

these are the same barbarians that have Elephants and Rhinos plus a whole host of critically endangered wildlife on the verge of extinction because they think that they are aphrodisiacs.

Which can be thrown at many peoples/cultures in Africa and Asia.

Dog and Cat are routinely consumed and they have an entire dog meat festival in Yulin, China dedicated to eating dogs.

Any links to prove that cat and dog are routinely eaten across all of China? I've encountered it but rarely (mostly southern China), and it faces a lot of criticism within mainland China.

If people had a bit of respect for animals and understand that some are for eating and just let others alone as nature intended.

Fair enough, although I suspect that nature intended us to eat anything except ourselves.

26-01-2020 10:58AM

nevermind.

26-01-2020 11:33AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Any links to prove that cat and dog are routinely eaten across all of China? I've encountered it but rarely (mostly southern China), and it faces a lot of criticism within mainland China.

This guy says they eat dogs in every part of China. He's lived there for years and his videos show him travelling to many parts.

https://youtu.be/3I7oe3MKNF0?t=59

He also says that what you're saying above "oh, they only do that in --- part of China" is a common response, and untrue.

26-01-2020 11:36AM

Deleted User wrote: »

This guy says they eat dogs in every part of China. He's lived there for years and his videos show him travelling to many parts.

https://youtu.be/3I7oe3MKNF0?t=59

He also says that what you're saying above "oh, they only do that in --- part of China" is a common response, and untrue.

Fair enough. (it's worth watching the whole video though)

4068ac1elhodqr · 26-01-2020 11:53AM

pc7 wrote: »

UK foreign office advising their people to leave the region, is that not bad advice and will spread it? Getting a bit nervy if it keeps spreading, 1.4 billion on lockdown! That’s unfathomable.

Not just the uk, every foreign state is at it, from Japan to India to US and other Europeans.
On one hand there is a sense of duty, however with reports that it can spread even before any even symtoms show, repatriation could be the wrong decision in the longer term.

A full Chinese state lockdown (which kinda seems to be occuring anyway) is the best hope at this stage as the int'l numbers are still low. But that would have to include zero flights out the country until a vax becomes available.

The Rape of Lucretia · 26-01-2020 12:29PM

Impossible to judge the seriousness of this outbreak. The press, even The Good Old Guardian, putting no perspective on the magnitude. When you are in the headlines business, I guess whatever the biggest story you've got - or decide to make - becomes a BIG story.

Remember the Aussie bush fires, the news leading position, and rolling updates? Presumably that's all solved now. Winter flue - how many catch that and die every year. Is it clearly of lesser impact?

4068ac1elhodqr · 26-01-2020 12:35PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Remember the Aussie bush fires, the news leading position, and rolling updates? Presumably that's all solved now.

There was never much of a chance of those bush fires reaching the packed cities of Mumbai, NY or Lagos, nevermind Alice Springs.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Winter flue - how many catch that and die every year. Is it clearly of lesser impact?

Regular winter flu has a regular vaccine. This is a Novel (new) virus, likely derived from bats/snakes, may be subject to 2nd wave mutation, and (although still early) might indicate a fatality rate of 2%, (x20), compared to the regular 0.1%.

Yurt2 · 26-01-2020 01:09PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Any links to prove that cat and dog are routinely eaten across all of China? I've encountered it but rarely (mostly southern China), and it faces a lot of criticism within mainland China.

You don't need a link. Open your 百度地图 app and plug in 狗肉 and a city name. Every city in China you can think of (including those north of the Yangtze) will turn up results of dog meat restaurants. It's not as prevalent among the young or wealthy, but the practice of consumption of dog meat is nationwide.

26-01-2020 01:15PM

Yurt! wrote: »

You don't need a link. Open your 百度地图 app and plug in 狗肉 and a city name. Every city in China you can think of (including those north of the Yangtze) will turn up results of dog meat restaurants. It's not as prevalent among the young or wealthy, but the practice of consumption of dog meat is nationwide.

No, I get that. I know of a few restaurants who do serve it. It's just that it seemed to be a rarity in terms of people eating it. Still, as the other poster provided, the YouTube vid does explain the conditions.

26-01-2020 01:41PM

So the Chinese health ministry are now saying that the incubation period for the virus is anything up to 14 days and that people are infectious during this period. They closed the Seafood Market (where wild animals were also sold) on the 1st January so the outbreak must have started before then. How many people (including carriers) will have travelled far from Wuhan long before the shutdown this week? Apparently the station for the high speed intercity trains is only a short walk from the market. The chances of any sort of containment are minimal.

Also, reports today that the outbreak in Wuhan is much worse than is being officially reported. The existing hospitals are only capable of admitting a fraction of patients presenting and that many more are being cared for (by necessity) at home, with plenty of deaths from complications. So official incidence and mortality rates seem unreliable and inaccurate.

tom1ie · 26-01-2020 01:45PM

NIMAN wrote: »

They are building a hospital made up of portacabins in a field.

I don't think Irish people would settle for hospitals like that.

Why not! Wouldn’t bother me!

26-01-2020 01:48PM

a seafood market, 800km from the coast? No feckin wonder!

26-01-2020 01:51PM

1641 wrote:

The chances of any sort of containment are minimal.

Honestly, I can't really see how they would limit the spread effectively beyond shutting down rail/road links. Even without it being the Spring Festival.

I'd consider containment to be a pipe-dream. Just as I'm wondering at the lack of effort internationally to contain it in airports.

wakka12 · 26-01-2020 01:52PM

Big push from Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and Hong Kong residents to completely shut their borders to China

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1504836-20200125.htm
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/26/national/japan-ldp-full-scale-border-control-measures-wuhan-china-virus/#.Xi2LeRP7Qb2
https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B/426676/%E6%AD%A6%E6%BC%A2%E8%82%BA%E7%82%8E-%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E5%85%A8%E9%9D%A2%E7%A6%81%E6%AD%A2%E6%B9%96%E5%8C%97%E7%9C%81%E4%BA%BA%E5%A3%AB%E5%85%A5%E5%A2%83-%E6%9A%AB%E7%B7%A9%E9%99%B8%E7%B1%8D%E4%BA%BA%E5%A3%AB%E8%B5%B4%E5%8F%B0%E7%94%B3%E8%AB%8B

First suspected case in Vienna
https://en24.news/2020/01/deadly-corona-virus-first-suspicion-in-vienna-vienna.html

The virus is transmittable before symptoms show, making containment very difficult.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51254523

26-01-2020 01:52PM

1641 wrote: »

So the Chinese health ministry are now saying that the incubation period for the virus is anything up to 14 days and that people are infectious during this period. They closed the Seafood Market (where wild animals were also sold) on the 1st January so the outbreak must have started before then. How many people (including carriers) will have travelled far from Wuhan long before the shutdown this week? Apparently the station for the high speed intercity trains is only a short walk from the market. The chances of any sort of containment are minimal.

Also, reports today that the outbreak in Wuhan is much worse than is being officially reported. The existing hospitals are only capable of admitting a fraction of patients presenting and that many more are being cared for (by necessity) at home, with plenty of deaths from complications. So official incidence and mortality rates seem unreliable and inaccurate.

well 9 direct flights into Australia from Wuhan (many more from other Chinese cities since it was discovered in December. But if incubation is 5-14 days then its really only the flights since mid January that have been spreading stuff

“More than 40 direct China flights will arrive in Australia today,” Patrick said on Friday.

https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/01/24/china-flights-to-australia-questioned-amid-virus-epidemic-fears/

how many into Europe?

SauNewb · 26-01-2020 01:54PM

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/20200125-new-coronavirus-appears-less-serious-than-sars-says-french-doctor

It seems to be spreading rapidly in Wuhan.
The 3 cases in France is still only 3. Good sign.

There is no way Ireland could deal with an outbreak.

The Rape of Lucretia · 26-01-2020 02:10PM

50,000 deaths from the 17/18 winter flu virus in the UK alone. I don't remember it getting particular attention or new interest. Nor the UK being locked down.
Maybe this week was just a slow news week, and nothing to see here.

wakka12 · 26-01-2020 02:13PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

50,000 deaths from the 17/18 winter flu virus in the UK alone. I don't remember it getting particular attention or new interest. Nor the UK being locked down.
Maybe this week was just a slow news week, and nothing to see here.

Based on current stats, it is several magnitudes more dangerous than seasonal flu, killing 2-3% of patients and hospitalising 10% of those infected. Mortality rates of seasonal flu are nowhere near that level. Do you not think there is something in the fact that China is locking down cities while it didnt happen in the UK for seasonal flu? You don't quarantine megacities indefinitely on a whim

26-01-2020 02:15PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

50,000 deaths from the 17/18 winter flu virus in the UK alone. I don't remember it getting particular attention or new interest. Nor the UK being locked down.
Maybe this week was just a slow news week, and nothing to see here.

This is different. It's a novel virus. Flu has an effective kill rate of 0.1%. If the Wuhan flu is around 2.5-5%. it could potentially kill many multiples of that especially if otherwise healthy people are dying. The main concerns are human to human transmission and latency until symptoms.

I'm not particularly worried at the moment but this has potential to be a huge medical issue.

26-01-2020 02:34PM

Having beers with a lad working in Beijing. School back delayed, where he works anyways.

Graces7 · 26-01-2020 02:42PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

50,000 deaths from the 17/18 winter flu virus in the UK alone. I don't remember it getting particular attention or new interest. Nor the UK being locked down.
Maybe this week was just a slow news week, and nothing to see here.

Which century are you referring to please? I just checked the 2017.18 stats and nothing like that number ../ The Guardian quotes 155 and that that was 3 times more than 2017

Wondering are you referring to the Spanish flu of 1917/18 ?

creditcarder · 26-01-2020 02:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

This guy says they eat dogs in every part of China. He's lived there for years and his videos show him travelling to many parts.

https://youtu.be/3I7oe3MKNF0?t=59

He also says that what you're saying above "oh, they only do that in --- part of China" is a common response, and untrue.

Pretty knowledgeable guy about China. Dubious character, but he does have a lot of information.

bodhrandude · 26-01-2020 02:54PM

[HTML][/HTML]

Graces7 wrote: »

Which century are you referring to please? I just checked the 2017.18 stats and nothing like that number ../ The Guardian quotes 155 and that that was 3 times more than 2017

Wondering are you referring to the Spanish flu of 1917/18 ?

Yep Grace I think it is reference to the 1917/18 Spanish flu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

bilston · 26-01-2020 02:55PM

I was reading earlier that it's thought that swine flu infected about 12% of the world's population in 2009 and killed about 200,000 people.

If Coronavirus were to infect the same number of people you are talking 25 million deaths based on the current .totality rate.

Containment is essential...hence China closing off cities

The Rape of Lucretia · 26-01-2020 03:09PM

Graces7 wrote: »

Which century are you referring to please? I just checked the 2017.18 stats and nothing like that number ../ The Guardian quotes 155 and that that was 3 times more than 2017

Wondering are you referring to the Spanish flu of 1917/18 ?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html%3famp

Nó. 2017.

GooglePlus · 26-01-2020 03:09PM

bilston wrote: »

I was reading earlier that it's thought that swine flu infected about 12% of the world's population in 2009 and killed about 200,000 people.

If Coronavirus were to infect the same number of people you are talking 25 million deaths based on the current .totality rate.

Containment is essential...hence China closing off cities

That was a flu, this isn't the same.

This will lose the run of itself fairly soon.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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