€25k invested in prize bonds

abff · 12-01-2020 1:27pm

Hibernicis wrote: »

Not directly, no.

See dxhound2005's post above.

You don't get a larger prize, you get a greater chance of winning. I calculate it to be a 1.57% greater chance.

If it’s a random number generator that creates the prize list, I wonder how they tweak it to improve the chances of an ‘old’ bond winning a prize.

The only way I can see it working would be if the first step in generating each number that comes up is to randomly decide whether it will be a ‘new’ bond or an ‘old’ bond, with the odds based on the total amount invested in each category. Having decided the category, the bond within that particular category is then chosen at random.

If anyone has a better suggestion, I’d love to hear it.

Agent Smyth · 12-01-2020 1:38pm

Hibernicis wrote: »

You don't get a larger prize, you get a greater chance of winning. I calculate it to be a 1.57% greater chance.

Love to see your calculations for this, my understanding is each and every bond has the exact same chance of winning a prize the only thing that improves your chances of winning is buying more bonds

dxhound2005 · 12-01-2020 3:41pm

abff wrote: »

If it’s a random number generator that creates the prize list, I wonder how they tweak it to improve the chances of an ‘old’ bond winning a prize.

The only way I can see it working would be if the first step in generating each number that comes up is to randomly decide whether it will be a ‘new’ bond or an ‘old’ bond, with the odds based on the total amount invested in each category. Having decided the category, the bond within that particular category is then chosen at random.

If anyone has a better suggestion, I’d love to hear it.

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1993/si/337/made/en/print

The regulation outlining the computer generated random number system, which replaced the previous 1957 system dates from 1993. Section 10.

The subsequent regulation after the introduction of the Euro, would have to be written into the software to give every bond either €6.35 or €6.25 the proportionate chance of winning. Recognising a bond pre or post serial number DL000001, and giving a slight weighting to the former.

If someone published that software it would probably look like gobbledygook to me, but it does not seem a very complicated thing to do in the modern age.

abff · 12-01-2020 7:34pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1993/si/337/made/en/print

The regulation outlining the computer generated random number system, which replaced the previous 1957 system dates from 1993. Section 10.

The subsequent regulation after the introduction of the Euro, would have to be written into the software to give every bond either €6.35 or €6.25 the proportionate chance of winning. Recognising a bond pre or post serial number DL000001, and giving a slight weighting to the former.

If someone published that software it would probably look like gobbledygook to me, but it does not seem a very complicated thing to do in the modern age.

I tried (but failed) to find the amendment made when the euro was introduced. Any chance of a link?

dxhound2005 · 12-01-2020 8:16pm

http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2004/si/582/made/en/print

Hibernicis · 12-01-2020 10:07pm

Agent Smyth wrote: »

Love to see your calculations for this, my understanding is each and every bond has the exact same chance of winning a prize the only thing that improves your chances of winning is buying more bonds

That was always my understanding also. However on reading the regulation quoted above and interpreting it literally:

“(2) Each bond included in a draw shall have a chance of being selected for a prize in proportion to the principal repayable in respect of the bond.”

and given that the principal repayable for the IEP issued bonds is €6.35 and the principal repayable for the EUR issued bonds (bonds to which the serial number DL000001 or a subsequent serial number have been allocated) is €6.25 I calculated it thus: =(6.35-6.25)/6.25 = .016 so a 1.6% greater chance of a single “old” bond winning (1.57 was a accidental inversion on my part) vs a single ”new” bond.

Hibernicis · 12-01-2020 10:16pm

abff wrote: »

If it’s a random number generator that creates the prize list, I wonder how they tweak it to improve the chances of an ‘old’ bond winning a prize.

The only way I can see it working would be if the first step in generating each number that comes up is to randomly decide whether it will be a ‘new’ bond or an ‘old’ bond, with the odds based on the total amount invested in each category. Having decided the category, the bond within that particular category is then chosen at random.

If anyone has a better suggestion, I’d love to hear it.

A very interesting question and one that would make a good FOI. I suspect that dxhound2005‘s suggestion that it is achieved using a weighting factor is correct. Any categorization into old vs new would risk impacting the overall randomness. Remember that in a draw, all winners could in theory be either "old” or “new” bonds, however improbable this is.

Agent Smyth · 13-01-2020 8:17am

Hibernicis wrote: »

I calculated it thus: =(6.35-6.25)/6.25 = .016 so a 1.6% greater chance of a single “old” bond winning (1.57 was a accidental inversion on my part) vs a single ”new” bond.

Sorry and I freely admit that maths/statistics is not my strong point but that just looks like a formula to show the % price difference between the two bonds.

I can see from the amendments that there is/was a weighting system for the pre euro bonds but I would have thought that 20 years later and that with the size of the overall fund now, the .5% prize fund and that old bonds are very much in the minority in each draw, that any weighting advantage that they had then is non-existing now.

Does the weighting system get adjusted every year??

Hibernicis · 13-01-2020 3:33pm

Agent Smyth wrote: »

Sorry and I freely admit that maths/statistics is not my strong point but that just looks like a formula to show the % price difference between the two bonds.

Thats exactly what it is, in other words the greater chance of winning is the proportionate difference between an old bond and a new bond.

Agent Smyth wrote: »

I can see from the amendments that there is/was a weighting system for the pre euro bonds but I would have thought that 20 years later and that with the size of the overall fund now, the .5% prize fund and that old bonds are very much in the minority in each draw, that any weighting advantage that they had then is non-existing now.

Does the weighting system get adjusted every year??

No, it never changes. The weighting applies to each individual bond and has nothing to do with the number of bonds in circulation.

Look at it another way. Say you had two bonds, one of the old ones and one of the new ones. The old one would have a 1.6% better chance of winning vs your new one (to compensate for its higher value) in every draw in which it participates. It will have exactly this “better chance” of winning the week after the new bonds are introduced and also fifty years later.

I don’t think I am explaining this very well, so if anybody else can do better please feel free.

Taylor365 · 13-01-2020 7:14pm

Hibernicis wrote: »

Thats exactly what it is, in other words the greater chance of winning is the proportionate difference between an old bond and a new bond.

No, it never changes. The weighting applies to each individual bond and has nothing to do with the number of bonds in circulation.

Look at it another way. Say you had two bonds, one of the old ones and one of the new ones. The old one would have a 1.6% better chance of winning vs your new one (to compensate for its higher value) in every draw in which it participates. It will have exactly this “better chance” of winning the week after the new bonds are introduced and also fifty years later.

I don’t think I am explaining this very well, so if anybody else can do better please feel free.

Old bond - bad
New bond - even worse

abff · 14-01-2020 9:02pm

Hibernicis wrote: »

A very interesting question and one that would make a good FOI. I suspect that dxhound2005‘s suggestion that it is achieved using a weighting factor is correct. Any categorization into old vs new would risk impacting the overall randomness. Remember that in a draw, all winners could in theory be either "old” or “new” bonds, however improbable this is.

I’ve had another think about it and have come up with a way in which a higher weighting could be given to ‘old’ bonds. 127 numbers could be allocated to each old bond and 125 to each new bond.

dxhound2005 · 16-01-2020 2:37pm

Here is my idea about how the weighting could work. The number of €50 prizes is recalculated at the start of each month. So the system would recognise how many new €6.25 bonds there are, and how many €6.25 and €6.35 were cashed since the previous calculation. Say the number of bonds at €6.35 is 0.5% of the total. Give every bond of €6.35 a weighting of 102.1 and every bond of €6.25 a weighting of 99.5. 1.6% is the difference in value between 6.35 and 6.25. 1.6 + 0.5 = 2.1.

Using the January 2019 calculation as an example. The total fund on 31 Dec 2018 was €3,415,200,000. x 0.5% notional interest rate = €17,076,000. Take away €5,280,000 the fixed annual amount paid in big prizes, leaves €11,796,000 for €50 prizes. Divide by 52 and by 50 to get the number of €50 prizes per week in January 2019, 4,536. The actual number was 4,516.

Using the weighting numbers, 0.5% of all bonds with a weighting of 102.1 would give each of them a 0.007% chance of being the next bond out on the 4,516 “spins of the wheel”. 99.5% of all bonds with a weighting of 99.5 would give each of them a 0.338% chance. This is in the ballpark of the 0.34% return produced by €50 prizes annually.

0.5% might seem low for the number of £5 bonds, given that they ran from 1957 to the start of the Euro. But see my post #4982 on page 333 for an explanation. As the total fund increases every month which it has done for years, the percentage of €6.35 bonds will keep going down, and the weighting will go down as well. The small number of €6.35 bonds left is reflected by how few prizes they win. An examination of the weekly draw results will show that.

John arse · 16-01-2020 11:48pm

my head just exploded!

tuisginideach · 17-01-2020 11:57am

Cork Lass wrote: »

Well, you couldn’t make it up. €50 for us again this week, that’s 4 in a row

This week's question: Will Cork Lass match the Dubs and make it Five-in-a-row?

dxhound2005 · 17-01-2020 12:12pm

John arse wrote: »

my head just exploded!

Not too much debris:)

tuisginideach · 17-01-2020 1:36pm

tuisginideach wrote: »

Same as that again

And again

PB2018 · 17-01-2020 2:15pm

Wins on 17th January 2020: €0
Last win - 3rd January 2020: €50
Weeks since last win: 2
€134k invested in prize bonds since July 2017
Win ratio: 15 wins in 133 weeks (11%)
2017 (Jul-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2018 (Jan-Dec): 4 x €50 = €200
2019 (Jan-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2020 (Jan-date): 1 x €50 = €50

John arse · 17-01-2020 2:48pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Not too much debris:)

no there's not much in there!

Andrew Flexing · 17-01-2020 2:53pm

Jan:

:(:(

Hibernicis · 17-01-2020 3:14pm

Great start to the year but wondering if there is a long drought to follow !

Winnings on 17th January €50
Last win: 10th January €150 (3x€50)
Weeks since last win: 1

2017 (Jul-Dec) - €100k – 7x€50 = €350
2018 (Jan-Dec) - €200k – 12x€50 = €600
2019 (Jan-Dec) - €250k – 20x€50 = €1,000
2020 (Jan-Jan) - €252k - 4x€50 = €200

carrickbawn · 17-01-2020 4:00pm

tuisginideach wrote: »

And again

Ditto.

pbwinner · 17-01-2020 4:07pm

Winnings on 17th January 2020: €0
Last win 23rd August 2019: €50
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €2900
2011: €75 x 4 €300
2012: €75 x 6 €450
2013: €50 x 12 €600
2014: €50 x 9 €450
2015: €50 x 5 €250
2016: €50 x 5 €250
2017: €50 x 4 €200
2018: €50 x 2 €100
2019: €50 x 6 €300
2020: €0

Cork Lass · 17-01-2020 5:26pm

Lucky streak is broken - nothing for us this week

Mormegil · 17-01-2020 7:53pm

€50 for me this week, first win since 18th April 2019.

They've stopped sending cheques out since my last win I believe so I'll have to give them my bank details to get paid (or just reinvest it).

dxhound2005 · 17-01-2020 8:01pm

Mormegil wrote: »

€50 for me this week, first win since 18th April 2019.

They've stopped sending cheques out since my last win I believe so I'll have to give them my bank details to get paid (or just reinvest it).

You will probably get a cheque for this one, but they will be gone soon.

From February 2020 Prize Payment by cheque will cease. Choose Reinvestment into new Prize Bonds or Electronic Transfer to your Bank Account.

John arse · 17-01-2020 9:17pm

cashed in 50k this week ,80kish left in so fewer wins obviously but the few bob went to finish our new house build so onwards and upwards(i think?)

WhiteMan32 · 17-01-2020 9:35pm

Winnings on 17th January 2020 on €109k: €50
Last win on 3rd January 2020: €50

dxhound2005 · 17-01-2020 10:48pm

The number of £5 bonds which won on 17 January was 198. On 10 January it was 203. 3.96% and 4.06% of the total. On that basis I would revise my weighting number to 105.6 for €6.35 bonds and 96 for €6.25 bonds.

The number of £5 bonds which win every week should keep going down steadily if the trend of about 1.5 million new €6.25 bonds being bought weekly continues.

John arse · 21-01-2020 11:22am

what are the options if i have a 50k bond but only need 10k from it?

abff · 21-01-2020 11:50am

John arse wrote: »

what are the options if i have a 50k bond but only need 10k from it?

That's no problem. You can sell as many or as few of the units as you wish. See attached encashment form https://www.statesavings.ie/media/pdf/prizebonds_repayment_form?ext=.pdf

€25k invested in prize bonds

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