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Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    unkel wrote: »
    I've not much time for a youtuber coming out with this stuff in 2020 as if it were expert analysis.

    the utuber is Gali, the tesla investor that Musk let ask the question at an earnings call a couple of years ago. He's also the tesla expert brought on to plenty of US shows to debate with Chanos and friends. His analysis is good and very knowledgeable on all things Tesla. He has been proven right way more often than some of the highly paid guys in expensive suits that cover Tesla. Well worth watching.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    lucky john wrote: »
    Well worth watching.

    He said nothing in above two newish vids that I haven't heard many times before over the last few years. Don't get me wrong though, I don't disagree with a lot of it. But don't expect me to get interested in this guy either :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    Market Cap / Unit Sold in 2019

    Hyundai: $3500
    Nissan: $4500
    GM: $6400
    Ford: $6500
    VW: $9k
    Honda: $10k
    Toyota: $20k

    $TSLA: $218,000


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,945 ✭✭✭Bigus


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    Market Cap / Unit Sold in 2019

    Hyundai: $3500
    Nissan: $4500
    GM: $6400
    Ford: $6500
    VW: $9k
    Honda: $10k
    Toyota: $20k

    $TSLA: $218,000

    An interesting chart, however What’s the average selling price of a unit for those companies ? and few of them get their full list price unlike Tesla ?
    Also Even pessimists believe Tesla volumes will expand exponentially however that’s some ground to make up, but it'd be fairer to compare Tesla to lower volume higher end producers like BMW, Mercedes , jaguar land rover even Ferrari etc.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    Market Cap / Unit Sold

    Interesting ratio, but not sure of the relevance. The value of a company (not necessarily the same as the market cap) is the net present value of all future profits. Nothing much to do with the current number of cars sold, margin per car, or bottom line profitability

    That said, maybe it's a coincidence, but I put in a buy order on Hyundai shares earlier this morning :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    Market Cap / Unit Sold in 2019

    Hyundai: $3500
    Nissan: $4500
    GM: $6400
    Ford: $6500
    VW: $9k
    Honda: $10k
    Toyota: $20k

    $TSLA: $218,000

    That's a bit like comparing a traditional book seller like Borders' to Amazon around 2000. In 1994 Amazon was born. In 1998 Borders' had 256 stores, 36,000 employees and sales of $256 per sq ft. By 2011 it had 10,500 employees and was bust.

    Don't forget Ford and GM are only there because the US government saved them. lets see what those figures look like at the end of 2020, 2021 ect


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    lucky john wrote: »
    That's a bit like comparing a traditional book seller like Borders' to Amazon around 2000. In 1994 Amazon was born. In 1998 Borders' had 256 stores, 36,000 employees and sales of $256 per sq ft. By 2011 it had 10,500 employees and was bust.

    Don't forget Ford and GM are only there because the US government saved them. lets see what those figures look like at the end of 2020, 2021 ect

    Just found it interesting..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    bought my Tesla shares in Nov 2015 @ $230 so just crossed the 100% line. When I told my broker at the time I wanted to buy Tesla he said "Who!" When I bought it was with a ten year or $1000/share horizon regardless of the up and downs. That remains the plan.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    lucky john wrote: »
    bought my Tesla shares in Nov 2015 @ $230

    That's a lot of risk you took those first 4 years! I bought mine in May 2019 @ $230 :D

    Unfortunately I sold them after 6 months with 33% net profit. Not complaining though...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    only regret is that I didn't buy 10 times more shares at the time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Might hit USD500 today, only a few dollars shy

    I'd say pretty much all private small short players have had to abandon their position at this stage with varying degrees of substantial losses?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,999 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Anybody following this thread over on Askaboutmoney? Guy with a big short on Tesla from a few months back, he provides regular updates, its starting to eat into his portfolio now:

    https://askaboutmoney.com/threads/the-perils-of-shorting-a-real-life-example.215011/

    The market cap of Ford and GM combined, most valuable automaker in US history now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Thargor wrote: »

    The market cap of Ford and GM combined, most valuable automaker in US history now.

    That's a big mistake everyone makes. Tesla is as much a tech, data, battery and energy company as an auto company. Not only are they totally disrupting how cars are manufactured but what a car is. They will soon have a million cars on the road doing a billion miles and all the time gathering data that is educating an AI system. No other company is even close to having anything like what Tesla has and the gap grows daily.

    The haters laughed at the tent extension but it turned out to be the savior of the M3 (and probably Tesla) . They became the first car manufacture to be allowed own their on factory in China. They build a factory capable of producing 3000 cars a week in less than a year. No other auto company would even dream up that concept never mind execute it. Now they are about to kick off it the heart of Europe's car industry(not by accident) and do the same thing. Did I mention all this was done without a cent spent on advertising.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,152 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    Executing on the Giga 4 factory could be harder, take longer and be more expensive than they expect.

    They have zero chance of repeating what they did in China in 2019 with turning a sod on a new factory and cars rolling off the line within that same year.

    And there's the bats! :)
    https://electrek.co/2020/01/08/tesla-endangered-bat-gigafactory-4-delay/


    The share price behavior is just bonkers though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    lucky john wrote: »
    The haters laughed.

    They haven't been laughing lately. I sure don't miss their vitriolic rants. The world is better off with Tesla and without those haters.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,835 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    unkel wrote: »
    But I worry about some of the little shorts - they must really hurt, hope none of them are in financial ruin because of the irrational hatred some of them seem to have for Tesla. You'd wonder where that came from.
    Lots of people will be utterly ruined, I'd say.

    I placed a single fairly modestly leveraged spread bet earlier this year for about £1k. I didn't trade around the position and when the £1k was gone, I closed the position and took the loss. If I had held on today, not only would my £1k be gone, but I'd be in the hole for -£8k. I wonder how many people doubled down on losing positions and lost multiples of their original investment?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    KCross wrote: »

    Hopefully they won't handle that the Irish way, like directly beyond my back garden in the lands proposed for the Clonburris SDZ. In the required environmental impact assessment bats were mentioned to have habitats but only near the canal (where there wasn't much building proposed) and not anywhere near the northern border of the SDZ (adjacent to my property) where there was high density building proposed

    Before this assessment there were plenty of bats flying around my garden every night. I haven't seen them since. Yeah, that was no coincidence :mad:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,081 ✭✭✭fricatus


    unkel wrote: »
    Hopefully they won't handle that the Irish way, like directly beyond my back garden in the lands proposed for the Clonburris SDZ. In the required environmental impact assessment bats were mentioned to have habitats but only near the canal (where there wasn't much building proposed) and not anywhere near the northern border of the SDZ (adjacent to my property) where there was high density building proposed

    Before this assessment there were plenty of bats flying around my garden every night. I haven't seen them since. Yeah, that was no coincidence :mad:

    :eek:
    :mad:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    Market Cap / Unit Sold in 2019

    Hyundai: $3500
    Nissan: $4500
    GM: $6400
    Ford: $6500
    VW: $9k
    Honda: $10k
    Toyota: $20k

    $TSLA: $218,000

    Came across this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-valuation-idUSKCN0XU20J?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social from 2016
    posted on this forum by Francie Barrett. The bear arguments haven't changed much in the years since really. the headline "Wall Street values Tesla Motors at $620,000 per car" They have knocked $400,000 off Market Cap / Unit Sold in only 4 years. Makes the point I was making to the quoted post above. Definitely a growth stock and will continue to be for a few years yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 779 ✭✭✭Arrival


    It's kind of funny thinking about how certain Tesla wouldn't succeed many of the doubters were, as if it was personal. I haven't invested in them but always thought they'd surely be a good long-term investment just based off of their more tech approach to cars alone. Of course there were issues with the company which caused valid concerns about them but the almost cult like support they have from many customers would be enough to keep them kicking over until the scaling issues were sorted. Every new Tesla sold of course makes them money but with each one that sets off driving around they're getting another data gathering machine which contributes to their network every single day. The more cars driving around the more valuable their data becomes as it's more useful to their goal of having fully automated cars. Not sure how anyone could look at them as a company and not feel excited about the possibilities they're bringing to the world


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Well said, Arrival. This:
    Arrival wrote: »
    the almost cult like support they have from many customers would be enough to keep them kicking over

    isn't used much as an argument, but I feel it is hugely important. Or at least it was in the past. If at any moment, Tesla would have been on the brink of going under and they needed an immediate few hundred million cash flow injection, I'd say the fan base would have coughed it up no bother. With something like a quid pro quo token like a double the cash discount on a future car or something like that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Arrival wrote: »
    The more cars driving around the more valuable their data becomes as it's more useful to their goal of having fully automated cars. Not sure how anyone could look at them as a company and not feel excited about the possibilities they're bringing to the world


    Not only does every new car on the road collect data it also adds another sales person to the company free of charge..eg https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&p=babara+cocoran+on+elon+musk#id=4&vid=9e5defe6850c17378463371c24dce26f&action=click

    As for the cult thing, i don't know if anyone follows Elon on twitter ect..but he has a huge youth following all over the world for his interest in Anime,memes and the whole pop culture movement. In there he is nothing short of superhero.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Watching the share price the last couple of days i was expecting understandable profit taking after the huge run. But even today it's flat with just a small amount over the daily average traded (so far). For such a volatile stock that's surprising


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    TSLA has been fitted with Merlin engines today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    LOL, yeah bouncing off USD 520, incredible stuff!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,999 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Its either shorts closing and/or a Bitcoin hype train situation now, its going to fall hard the minute people get skittish...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Thargor wrote: »
    Its either shorts closing

    They were long gone before :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    unkel wrote: »
    They were long gone before :p

    At the end of Dec 19 there were 26.3 million shares still shorted. that's alot when no body want's to sell. For sure shorts are distressed and covering. momentum is destroying them as the sp just crushes every notional barrier. 10% up after a near 100% run will give them alot to ponder tonight. Every day they think the sp will turn but it just keeps on going.

    I wounder are S&P tracking funds buying in early? it's inevitable TSLA will be listed by year end and they might fear shares will be harder to come by then.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    lucky john wrote: »
    At the end of Dec 19 there were 26.3 million shares still shorted.

    Not the "shorts" though as we call the little guys who are now mostly gone, having lost a lot of money.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,576 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    unkel wrote: »
    Not the "shorts" though as we call the little guys who are now mostly gone, having lost a lot of money.

    I'm still sitting here giggling about high it can go, 1.3% market share on home turf, when this goes boom it's going to be spectacular.
    I wish everyone the best though, it's been some rollercoaster.

    Listened to the biggest Tesla bull tonight, I wasn't buying his reasoning for the new valuation. He states lack of competition for the foreseable future after going to CES and making some calls after it.
    They've massive competition on the horizon. Not only externally but internally from themselves, The Y will hurt TM3 sales.

    I'd love to know how many of the chaps in the Cybertruck thread had thought of a Raptor which is BIK free before lumping down a deposit on the Cybertruck.


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  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm still sitting here giggling about high it can go, 1.3% market share on home turf, when this goes boom it's going to be spectacular. .................

    It's a loony share.
    I traded it in 2018 but didn't go near it in 2019 ...... the Battery and Power-train investor day which was set for late 2019 and is now sometime in Q1, presumably there'll be big battery good news there also.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Augeo wrote: »
    the Battery and Power-train investor day which was set for late 2019 and is now sometime in Q1, presumably there'll be big battery good news there also.

    I'm expecting just hype. The "1 million mile battery". Just the 21700 cells lasting a bit longer than the 18650 cells, but essentially just the same tech.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Augeo wrote: »
    It's a loony share.
    I traded it in 2018 but didn't go near it in 2019

    I bought in 2019 at a very low point when it was near certain the company was undervalued. And I got out about 5-6 months later with a substantial profit. Very happy with the decisions I made - or to be more accurate: why I made them. I think chances are I will never be back in though. Hope the share will moon and hope anyone still in will make even more profit though, best of luck to you all :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    I'm still sitting here giggling about high it can go, 1.3% market share on home turf, when this goes boom it's going to be spectacular.
    I wish everyone the best though, it's been some rollercoaster.

    Listened to the biggest Tesla bull tonight, I wasn't buying his reasoning for the new valuation. He states lack of competition for the foreseable future after going to CES and making some calls after it.
    They've massive competition on the horizon. Not only externally but internally from themselves, The Y will hurt TM3 sales.

    I'd love to know how many of the chaps in the Cybertruck thread had thought of a Raptor which is BIK free before lumping down a deposit on the Cybertruck.


    A few points on your post dm. Tesla US total auto market share is around 1.3% today. what you didn't mention was that this time last year it was 0.6%. So they doubled market share in a year. (The M3 has a 60% US EV market share in a growing market.)

    Tesla is not in competition with other EV's even if some manufacturer does finally come up with a great one. They are in competition with the ICE makers.
    The EV market share in the US is only about 2% today. That leave Tesla a huge potential market to grow into. You should look at this as a glass 98.7% full not 1.3% empty.

    Sure the Y sales will hit the 3 sales to some extent. But the Y is 60% 3, plus it will be way more efficient to manufacture so a better margin. Again a positive not a negative. It will also be in a different and much bigger market segment. All good.

    The difference between the Raptor and the Cybretruck could not be greater. $ for $ the CT is way the better deal. However, it's the design that has already made it iconic. It's not for me but the 200,000 that did pre order it are NEVER (NEVER) going to settle for a Raptor.

    As for the share price. Who it their right mind would bet against it. Analysts (reputable ones ) are not putting it in the $600 plus bracket and they are always behind the curve.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,441 ✭✭✭jhegarty


    They've massive competition on the horizon. Not only externally but internally from themselves, The Y will hurt TM3 sales.

    There is massive competition 2-5 years away. But it's been the same 2-5 years away since before the Model 3 was announced.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    Feel sorry for Chanos, Einhorn & Co


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    Feel sorry for Chanos, Einhorn & Co

    Not much better for them at opening. It's away again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Why not just build many factory's in china now? How much would a chinese made car cost in Europe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭FFVII


    https://www.ft.com/content/a9080142-36d9-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4

    Tesla valuation nears Elon Musk’s bonus trigger of $100bn


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    FFVII wrote: »
    https://www.ft.com/content/a9080142-36d9-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4

    Tesla valuation nears Elon Musk’s bonus trigger of $100bn

    That's behind a pay wall. Would you be so kind to summarise the article?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    lucky john wrote: »
    I wounder are S&P tracking funds buying in early? it's inevitable TSLA will be listed by year end and they might fear shares will be harder to come by then.

    Are ETFs allowed to buy early though? I would guess no.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭FFVII


    unkel wrote: »
    That's behind a pay wall. Would you be so kind to summarise the article?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/01/14/as-tesla-stock-skyrockets-elon-musk-looks-set-for-346-million-payday/#22d9d5fa1316

    That wall wasn't there when I posted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,999 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Thargor wrote: »
    Anybody following this thread over on Askaboutmoney? Guy with a big short on Tesla from a few months back, he provides regular updates, its starting to eat into his portfolio now:

    https://askaboutmoney.com/threads/the-perils-of-shorting-a-real-life-example.215011/

    The market cap of Ford and GM combined, most valuable automaker in US history now.
    The man himself has jumped in with a short of his own now, entertaining!

    (Thats Brendan Burgess founder of Askaboutmoney btw, probably not very entertaining if you dont use that forum)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Thargor wrote: »
    The man himself has jumped in with a short of his own now, entertaining!

    (Thats Brendan Burgess founder of Askaboutmoney btw, probably not very entertaining if you dont use that forum)

    Following it since the link was posted here. I never short companies because sitting around waiting for a company to fail or do badly doesn't sit well with my mentality. Just to negative. What is very interesting over there is the fact that almost every poster begins with "I don't know much about Tesla but..."
    that applies to BB as well. His gamble is based on believing the negative agenda constantly put out about Tesla and especially about Musk. I don't see any effort to actually dig into the company and form an investment opinion on the future of Tesla. Total uninformed gamble.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    https://www.teslaincanada.ca/model-y/tesla-model-y-deliveries-to-begin-in-2-weeks-rumour/



    Almost a year ahead of schedule if true. Are they aiming for deliveries starting on the 29th, same day as FY19 results i wounder.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 816 ✭✭✭Tango One


    Has anyone looked at the alternative to batteries stock such as ballard power system. Its on a nice run of late.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    Tango One wrote: »
    Has anyone looked at the alternative to batteries stock such as ballard power system. Its on a nice run of late.

    How much does it cost to produce these alternatives vs lithium? surely their a long way out yet, wouldn't it be easier to stick using lithium for the time being? what type of time frame are we talking about here before any introductions/major changes?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 816 ✭✭✭Tango One


    JMMCapital wrote: »
    How much does it cost to produce these alternatives vs lithium? surely their a long way out yet, wouldn't it be easier to stick using lithium for the time being? what type of time frame are we talking about here before any introductions/major changes?

    It's does look like hydrogen is behind lithium at present. I think it will have a place in the commercial world.

    Interesting link below. Might have a few answers for you.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    I only got in at 509 but already have made a tidy gain!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 130 ✭✭Rashers Big Log


    Timmaay wrote: »
    I only got in at 509 but already have made a tidy gain!

    cc: @bagholderquotes


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