Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

unkel · 08-01-2020 8:54pm

Might hit USD500 today, only a few dollars shy

I'd say pretty much all private small short players have had to abandon their position at this stage with varying degrees of substantial losses?

Thargor · 08-01-2020 9:40pm

Anybody following this thread over on Askaboutmoney? Guy with a big short on Tesla from a few months back, he provides regular updates, its starting to eat into his portfolio now:

https://askaboutmoney.com/threads/the-perils-of-shorting-a-real-life-example.215011/

The market cap of Ford and GM combined, most valuable automaker in US history now.

lucky john · 08-01-2020 11:12pm

Thargor wrote: »

The market cap of Ford and GM combined, most valuable automaker in US history now.

That's a big mistake everyone makes. Tesla is as much a tech, data, battery and energy company as an auto company. Not only are they totally disrupting how cars are manufactured but what a car is. They will soon have a million cars on the road doing a billion miles and all the time gathering data that is educating an AI system. No other company is even close to having anything like what Tesla has and the gap grows daily.

The haters laughed at the tent extension but it turned out to be the savior of the M3 (and probably Tesla) . They became the first car manufacture to be allowed own their on factory in China. They build a factory capable of producing 3000 cars a week in less than a year. No other auto company would even dream up that concept never mind execute it. Now they are about to kick off it the heart of Europe's car industry(not by accident) and do the same thing. Did I mention all this was done without a cent spent on advertising.

KCross · 08-01-2020 11:19pm

Executing on the Giga 4 factory could be harder, take longer and be more expensive than they expect.

They have zero chance of repeating what they did in China in 2019 with turning a sod on a new factory and cars rolling off the line within that same year.

And there's the bats!

https://electrek.co/2020/01/08/tesla-endangered-bat-gigafactory-4-delay/

The share price behavior is just bonkers though.

unkel · 08-01-2020 11:21pm

lucky john wrote: »

The haters laughed.

They haven't been laughing lately. I sure don't miss their vitriolic rants. The world is better off with Tesla and without those haters.

Francie Barrett · 08-01-2020 11:26pm

unkel wrote: »

But I worry about some of the little shorts - they must really hurt, hope none of them are in financial ruin because of the irrational hatred some of them seem to have for Tesla. You'd wonder where that came from.

Lots of people will be utterly ruined, I'd say.

I placed a single fairly modestly leveraged spread bet earlier this year for about £1k. I didn't trade around the position and when the £1k was gone, I closed the position and took the loss. If I had held on today, not only would my £1k be gone, but I'd be in the hole for -£8k. I wonder how many people doubled down on losing positions and lost multiples of their original investment?

unkel · 08-01-2020 11:28pm

KCross wrote: »

And there's the bats!
https://electrek.co/2020/01/08/tesla-endangered-bat-gigafactory-4-delay/

Hopefully they won't handle that the Irish way, like directly beyond my back garden in the lands proposed for the Clonburris SDZ. In the required environmental impact assessment bats were mentioned to have habitats but only near the canal (where there wasn't much building proposed) and not anywhere near the northern border of the SDZ (adjacent to my property) where there was high density building proposed

Before this assessment there were plenty of bats flying around my garden every night. I haven't seen them since. Yeah, that was no coincidence :mad:

fricatus · 09-01-2020 1:34pm

unkel wrote: »

Hopefully they won't handle that the Irish way, like directly beyond my back garden in the lands proposed for the Clonburris SDZ. In the required environmental impact assessment bats were mentioned to have habitats but only near the canal (where there wasn't much building proposed) and not anywhere near the northern border of the SDZ (adjacent to my property) where there was high density building proposed

Before this assessment there were plenty of bats flying around my garden every night. I haven't seen them since. Yeah, that was no coincidence :mad:

:eek:
:mad:

lucky john · 10-01-2020 7:08pm

JMMCapital wrote: »

Market Cap / Unit Sold in 2019

Hyundai: $3500
Nissan: $4500
GM: $6400
Ford: $6500
VW: $9k
Honda: $10k
Toyota: $20k

$TSLA: $218,000

Came across this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-valuation-idUSKCN0XU20J?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social from 2016
posted on this forum by Francie Barrett. The bear arguments haven't changed much in the years since really. the headline "Wall Street values Tesla Motors at $620,000 per car" They have knocked $400,000 off Market Cap / Unit Sold in only 4 years. Makes the point I was making to the quoted post above. Definitely a growth stock and will continue to be for a few years yet.

Arrival · 10-01-2020 7:23pm

It's kind of funny thinking about how certain Tesla wouldn't succeed many of the doubters were, as if it was personal. I haven't invested in them but always thought they'd surely be a good long-term investment just based off of their more tech approach to cars alone. Of course there were issues with the company which caused valid concerns about them but the almost cult like support they have from many customers would be enough to keep them kicking over until the scaling issues were sorted. Every new Tesla sold of course makes them money but with each one that sets off driving around they're getting another data gathering machine which contributes to their network every single day. The more cars driving around the more valuable their data becomes as it's more useful to their goal of having fully automated cars. Not sure how anyone could look at them as a company and not feel excited about the possibilities they're bringing to the world

unkel · 10-01-2020 7:34pm

Well said, Arrival. This:

Arrival wrote: »

the almost cult like support they have from many customers would be enough to keep them kicking over

isn't used much as an argument, but I feel it is hugely important. Or at least it was in the past. If at any moment, Tesla would have been on the brink of going under and they needed an immediate few hundred million cash flow injection, I'd say the fan base would have coughed it up no bother. With something like a quid pro quo token like a double the cash discount on a future car or something like that.

lucky john · 10-01-2020 9:02pm

Arrival wrote: »

The more cars driving around the more valuable their data becomes as it's more useful to their goal of having fully automated cars. Not sure how anyone could look at them as a company and not feel excited about the possibilities they're bringing to the world

Not only does every new car on the road collect data it also adds another sales person to the company free of charge..eg https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&p=babara+cocoran+on+elon+musk#id=4&vid=9e5defe6850c17378463371c24dce26f&action=click

As for the cult thing, i don't know if anyone follows Elon on twitter ect..but he has a huge youth following all over the world for his interest in Anime,memes and the whole pop culture movement. In there he is nothing short of superhero.

lucky john · 10-01-2020 9:15pm

Watching the share price the last couple of days i was expecting understandable profit taking after the huge run. But even today it's flat with just a small amount over the daily average traded (so far). For such a volatile stock that's surprising

lucky john · 13-01-2020 6:20pm

TSLA has been fitted with Merlin engines today.

unkel · 13-01-2020 6:22pm

LOL, yeah bouncing off USD 520, incredible stuff!

Thargor · 13-01-2020 10:32pm

Its either shorts closing and/or a Bitcoin hype train situation now, its going to fall hard the minute people get skittish...

unkel · 13-01-2020 10:51pm

Thargor wrote: »

Its either shorts closing

They were long gone before

lucky john · 13-01-2020 11:18pm

unkel wrote: »

They were long gone before

At the end of Dec 19 there were 26.3 million shares still shorted. that's alot when no body want's to sell. For sure shorts are distressed and covering. momentum is destroying them as the sp just crushes every notional barrier. 10% up after a near 100% run will give them alot to ponder tonight. Every day they think the sp will turn but it just keeps on going.

I wounder are S&P tracking funds buying in early? it's inevitable TSLA will be listed by year end and they might fear shares will be harder to come by then.

unkel · 13-01-2020 11:56pm

lucky john wrote: »

At the end of Dec 19 there were 26.3 million shares still shorted.

Not the "shorts" though as we call the little guys who are now mostly gone, having lost a lot of money.

drunkmonkey · 14-01-2020 1:02am

unkel wrote: »

Not the "shorts" though as we call the little guys who are now mostly gone, having lost a lot of money.

I'm still sitting here giggling about high it can go, 1.3% market share on home turf, when this goes boom it's going to be spectacular.
I wish everyone the best though, it's been some rollercoaster.

Listened to the biggest Tesla bull tonight, I wasn't buying his reasoning for the new valuation. He states lack of competition for the foreseable future after going to CES and making some calls after it.
They've massive competition on the horizon. Not only externally but internally from themselves, The Y will hurt TM3 sales.

I'd love to know how many of the chaps in the Cybertruck thread had thought of a Raptor which is BIK free before lumping down a deposit on the Cybertruck.

14-01-2020 12:16pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'm still sitting here giggling about high it can go, 1.3% market share on home turf, when this goes boom it's going to be spectacular. .................

It's a loony share.
I traded it in 2018 but didn't go near it in 2019 ...... the Battery and Power-train investor day which was set for late 2019 and is now sometime in Q1, presumably there'll be big battery good news there also.

unkel · 14-01-2020 1:32pm

Augeo wrote: »

the Battery and Power-train investor day which was set for late 2019 and is now sometime in Q1, presumably there'll be big battery good news there also.

I'm expecting just hype. The "1 million mile battery". Just the 21700 cells lasting a bit longer than the 18650 cells, but essentially just the same tech.

unkel · 14-01-2020 1:34pm

Augeo wrote: »

It's a loony share.
I traded it in 2018 but didn't go near it in 2019

I bought in 2019 at a very low point when it was near certain the company was undervalued. And I got out about 5-6 months later with a substantial profit. Very happy with the decisions I made - or to be more accurate: why I made them. I think chances are I will never be back in though. Hope the share will moon and hope anyone still in will make even more profit though, best of luck to you all

lucky john · 14-01-2020 1:46pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I'm still sitting here giggling about high it can go, 1.3% market share on home turf, when this goes boom it's going to be spectacular.
I wish everyone the best though, it's been some rollercoaster.

Listened to the biggest Tesla bull tonight, I wasn't buying his reasoning for the new valuation. He states lack of competition for the foreseable future after going to CES and making some calls after it.
They've massive competition on the horizon. Not only externally but internally from themselves, The Y will hurt TM3 sales.

I'd love to know how many of the chaps in the Cybertruck thread had thought of a Raptor which is BIK free before lumping down a deposit on the Cybertruck.

A few points on your post dm. Tesla US total auto market share is around 1.3% today. what you didn't mention was that this time last year it was 0.6%. So they doubled market share in a year. (The M3 has a 60% US EV market share in a growing market.)

Tesla is not in competition with other EV's even if some manufacturer does finally come up with a great one. They are in competition with the ICE makers.
The EV market share in the US is only about 2% today. That leave Tesla a huge potential market to grow into. You should look at this as a glass 98.7% full not 1.3% empty.

Sure the Y sales will hit the 3 sales to some extent. But the Y is 60% 3, plus it will be way more efficient to manufacture so a better margin. Again a positive not a negative. It will also be in a different and much bigger market segment. All good.

The difference between the Raptor and the Cybretruck could not be greater. $ for $ the CT is way the better deal. However, it's the design that has already made it iconic. It's not for me but the 200,000 that did pre order it are NEVER (NEVER) going to settle for a Raptor.

As for the share price. Who it their right mind would bet against it. Analysts (reputable ones ) are not putting it in the $600 plus bracket and they are always behind the curve.

jhegarty · 14-01-2020 2:02pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They've massive competition on the horizon. Not only externally but internally from themselves, The Y will hurt TM3 sales.

There is massive competition 2-5 years away. But it's been the same 2-5 years away since before the Model 3 was announced.

JMMCapital · 14-01-2020 3:16pm

Feel sorry for Chanos, Einhorn & Co

lucky john · 14-01-2020 3:36pm

JMMCapital wrote: »

Feel sorry for Chanos, Einhorn & Co

Not much better for them at opening. It's away again.

greenfield21 · 14-01-2020 4:50pm

Why not just build many factory's in china now? How much would a chinese made car cost in Europe.

FFVII · 14-01-2020 5:16pm

https://www.ft.com/content/a9080142-36d9-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4

Tesla valuation nears Elon Musk’s bonus trigger of $100bn

unkel · 14-01-2020 5:33pm

FFVII wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/a9080142-36d9-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4

Tesla valuation nears Elon Musk’s bonus trigger of $100bn

That's behind a pay wall. Would you be so kind to summarise the article?

Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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