Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

dubliner999

I'm raging. Waiting on money to get to degiro to buy tesla shares but surely it'll jump in price tomorrow. Slow banks ruined a good chance there.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

To buy or not to buy...

Thargor

He'll be chairman again in 3 years aswell, its not even permanent.

zpehtsfd

lucky john wrote: »

I'm not sure why you posted the link. Mr Wan Gang is no doubt a visionary and could see the end of ICE and the only alternative (for the foreseeable future)been EV's. However he has not been the driving force of the EV revolution. That honor will always be down to Musk and Tesla. Unlike in the western world and particularly in the US the Chinese saw the light and have not put every possible road block in Wan Gang's way. The EV battle with big oil and ICE manufactures is been fought in the US. It's the cult following that Musk has and Musk alone has won, that will be the deciding factor. Regardless of what happens he will go down in history as the father of EV's.

Jaysus have you been binging on the Kool-Aid. :eek: Please enlighten us to all the "road blocks" that the Western World has put in place to stop Tesla. Here was me thinking all those subsides, cheap bond offerings and bullish investment firms were the forces that helped Tesla reach an astronomical valuation of > $50B in just a few years.

Godfather of EV's more like.

zpehtsfd

unkel wrote: »

But you're right. I have no idea what the shorts are thinking.

Well said.

BrokenArrows

dubliner999 wrote: »

I'm raging. Waiting on money to get to degiro to buy tesla shares but surely it'll jump in price tomorrow. Slow banks ruined a good chance there.

I would have thought we would see a further drop when markets open again on monday.

ImportMeHappy

Tis pre-market like, but..

307.30 +42.53 (16.06%)
Pre-Market: 7:08AM EDT

Thargor

Thargor wrote: »

Really wondering if I should have picked up a few today, seems like an easy 10-20%. He wont even get a slap on the wrist.

Fcuks sake TSLA up 16.5% pre market, I knew that was going to happen:mad:

unkel

BrokenArrows wrote: »

I would have thought we would see a further drop when markets open again on monday.

Of course not. Huge gain as expected because the "punishment" was Mickey Mouse. Just got cash into the DeGiro now, but I'm too late

dubliner999

dubliner999 wrote: »

I'm raging. Waiting on money to get to degiro to buy tesla shares but surely it'll jump in price tomorrow. Slow banks ruined a good chance there.

I feel sick. Slow bank transfer ruined this. *waits for the next opportunity*

lucky john

dubliner999 wrote: »

I feel sick. Slow bank transfer ruined this. *waits for the next opportunity*

If your in it for the long game then maybe that opportunity is today.

Congrats to anyone who held on or even bought last week and didn't get sucked in by the negative hype.

Tesla held back cars last quarter for gov subsidy reasons. If M3 production hits 53000 then deliveries could top 55000. That's big numbers on the revenue side. it comes down to costs if they broke even or made a profit. The other number which won't be public yet is how the order book has held up. If after delivering 55000 cars the book is flat then it's not just the fans that want the car its more mass market than that. Word on some forums is that the order book is looking good but that's from "sources familiar".

https://electrek.co/2018/10/01/tesla-production-record-q3-deliveries-crazier/

"In terms of actual numbers, I think we could be looking at something special here. Maybe even more deliveries than production, which would be new for Tesla.

I predict about 85,000 vehicles delivered in Q3. It would easily be more than double Tesla’s previous record, as Musk predicted last month."

dubliner999

lucky john wrote: »

If your in it for the long game then maybe that opportunity is today.

True. I bought tesla shares over a year ago and still believe in the company. Was a great opportunity last week but you're right, could still be a good time to buy but I just don't want to depend too much on one company.

lucky john

ICE car sales reports won't be in for a while yet but with 22,250 or so US sales in September the Model3 could be the 5th best selling passenger car in the US. Thats only selling the more expensive model. When the cheaper car appears next year the competition will really heat up. As for EV sales after the S and X the Bolt and Leaf are both less the 1600 car sales each. Have to wait another while to get the sales converted to P&L.

https://insideevs.com/september-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

blackwave

lucky john wrote: »

ICE car sales reports won't be in for a while yet but with 22,250 or so US sales in September the Model3 could be the 5th best selling passenger car in the US. Thats only selling the more expensive model. When the cheaper car appears next year the competition will really heat up. As for EV sales after the S and X the Bolt and Leaf are both less the 1600 car sales each. Have to wait another while to get the sales converted to P&L.

https://insideevs.com/september-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

Lucky, a honest question for you with Tesla still still having production issues albeit from my limited reading this might be starting to improve. Will they be able to cope with the increased demand for the cheaper car given that their manufacturing capacity still has a long way to go?

lucky john

blackwave wrote: »

Lucky, a honest question for you with Tesla still still having production issues albeit from my limited reading this might be starting to improve. Will they be able to cope with the increased demand for the cheaper car given that their manufacturing capacity still has a long way to go?

Tesla are on a learning and production curve. They now know how to produce cars at an optimum level. At some stage they would love to start again on the factory floor and streamline the whole process. They know from the famous tent how best to do that now. I can't see them doing it for a while yet though. China factory first and foremost I think.


AS for the cheaper car. The bottle neck seems to have been the battery production at GF1. 3 new lines are been constructed there now by Panasonic with new robots on the way as well. Also the cheaper car is 2 wheel drive unlike the Performance All Wheel drives so way less work and motor production. Q4 should see 60,000 + Model 3 units produced so assuming they continue to go after the money first to appease Wall St it will be late '18 early '19 before they go big into the cheaper car. By then GFI and Fremont
will be ready.

The sept production numbers have thrown up an interesting fact. The demand and the number of more expensive cars sold. The avg selling price is going to be higher than most (and a lot higher than some) expected. I expect reasonable analysts will need to redo their figures and come up with a figure that shows Tesla are cash flow positive.

lucky john

Top 5 bestselling car.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/tesla-s-model-3-is-becoming-one-of-america-s-best-selling-sedans

so much talk for so long about the Tesla killer new EV's coming from all the big guys. Turns out it's the other way around and not just their EV's

unkel

lucky john wrote: »

Top 5 bestselling car.

Sedan. Not car.

Most private vehicles sold in the US are not sedans. Got to play devil's advocate here man, sorry.

lucky john

https://insideevs.com/lutz-discusses-tesla-production-sales/amp/

Poor Bob the penny still hasn't dropped.

lucky john

unkel wrote: »

Sedan. Not car.

Most private vehicles sold in the US are not sedans. Got to play devil's advocate here man, sorry.

Fair enough. It may confuse some.

unkel

Ah come on, leave Bob Lutz alone. He's in his late 80s now and and he represents the olden days of motoring. Credit to him though he was one of the first giants in the industry to admit electric cars were the future.

lucky john

unkel wrote: »

Ah come on, leave Bob Lutz alone. He's in his late 80s now and and he represents the olden days of motoring. Credit to him though he was one of the first giants in the industry to admit electric cars were the future.

I have to assume your are defending Poor Bob with your tongue firmly in your cheek. He's wheeled out as an "Industry expert" to bash Tesla at every opportunity. He may have said EV are the future but he's in denial that the future in now here. And I'm not cynical enough to think that his old ICE friends are topping up his retirement fund to have him come out on the Save us from Tesla side. That would never happen


"Bob Lutz, the former vice chairman of General Motors and prominent Tesla critic, would like you to know that he still believes Tesla's days are numbered.
Lutz said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that the totality of the electric-car maker's financial, administrative, manufacturing, and legal problems signal Tesla "is headed for the graveyard."

OwlsZat

unkel wrote: »

Sedan. Not car.

Most private vehicles sold in the US are not sedans. Got to play devil's advocate here man, sorry.

This crossed my mind. So this is excluding pickups?

unkel

lucky john wrote: »

I have to assume your are defending Poor Bob with your tongue firmly in your cheek. He's wheeled out as an "Industry expert"

Not really. He is an industry expert, one of the biggest heads in US automotive history still alive, but he's also a dinosaur whose days were firmly in the past. What the big three in the US accomplished when he was in his prime in the 50s and 60s was impressive. Doesn't look that great anymore now though

OwlsZat wrote: »

This crossed my mind. So this is excluding pickups?

Yep, and all sorts of other "trucks" and "vans" that are massively popular over there like SUVs and MPVs of varying sizes. "Sedans" are only a minority of vehicles. The Ford F150 pickup truck is the best selling vehicle in the USA (and has been for decades). Say no more.

KCross

lucky john wrote: »

https://insideevs.com/lutz-discusses-tesla-production-sales/amp/

Poor Bob the penny still hasn't dropped.

unkel wrote: »

Not really. He is an industry expert, one of the biggest heads in US automotive history still alive, but he's also a dinosaur whose days were firmly in the past. What the big three in the US accomplished when he was in his prime in the 50s and 60s was impressive. Doesn't look that great anymore now though

He doesnt appear to at all understand Tesla's direct sales model.
He spent a good bit of that video creating FUD around production vs retail sales and when a sale is really a sale. He didnt seem to get it.

Anyone that knows Tesla knows that they dont have dealerships and their delivery numbers are when all the paperworks is done and the customer physically has the car in their name. He seems very confused about that and stuck in the old dealership model he came from.


He did however say that with the SEC thing behind them that things are looking up and somewhat retracted his "Tesla is going to the graveyard" comment.


He also made comments that Tesla have no edge on the battery tech, that they are Li-ion the same as everyone else with the same density etc. Thats not true either.
Tesla/Panasonic have jointly developed a new battery (different cell size and chemistry) for the Model 3 with much better density than everyone else. I'm sure it could be copied but these things take time to develop, test and put into production. Tesla is already pumping them out by the thousands per week.

They have also significantly reduced the cobalt content of their batteries which gives them an edge both in cost and in PR as cobalt is the oft used element to declare that your EV is killing children in the Congo!

unkel

I've said it before. Underestimate Tesla at your peril. Personally I hope they will become very successful, but I ain't investing my money in them at this stage. Although I would have taken a quick short term punt after the Mickey Mouse penalty had I been liquid enough at the time.

zpehtsfd

Your leader has spoken:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1047943670350020608

unkel

LOL, I thought his social media accounts had to be moderated now?

lucky john

KCross wrote: »

He doesnt appear to at all understand Tesla's direct sales model.
He spent a good bit of that video creating FUD around production vs retail sales and when a sale is really a sale. He didnt seem to get it.

Anyone that knows Tesla knows that they dont have dealerships and their delivery numbers are when all the paperworks is done and the customer physically has the car in their name. He seems very confused about that and stuck in the old dealership model he came from.QUOTE]

He gets it hard to think outside the business he USED to be an expert in. Mind you not much has changed there. They try to create FUD around when a sale is a sale and at the same time count their own sales as cars sold to dealerships, B2B and not B2C. They then can pressure their network to order and store, which there is some evidence of. I wounder why there is never drone footage of those lots while at the same time the sky over a Tesla lot could do with an air-control tower to stop them whacking into each other.

Unkel is right, he was a great (a long time ago) but is now "a dinosaur" so why is he the best expert CNBC can find. The great present day leaders can't all be in jail. maybe they are afraid some might just reveal the truth....
“Tesla is now ramping up their volumes, and it’s putting pressure on that market segment,” Bernhard Kuhnt, chief executive officer of BMW North America, said of the luxury sedan space in an interview Tuesday

lucky john

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Your leader has spoken:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1047943670350020608

Bit stuck for words on this one.

Better to let the numbers do the talking sometimes.

drunkmonkey

The guys a clown. The SEC aren't fully done with him and neither are the US Military.