Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

hotmail.com · 25-10-2019 09:10AM

murphaph wrote: »

Then why did the electorate vote to join (stay in) the EEC in 1972? If the UK was anti Europe going back centuries as you contend, this would not have been the case. You're talking rubbish.

It was in 1975. Had the referendum been held before entry, many think it wouldn't have passed. The referendum of 1975 passed for a variety of reasons. It doesn't undermine the point that Britons have always been luke warm and sometimes outright anti European in their attitude.

This is part of the reason why the Leave side won in 2016.

Joe_ Public · 25-10-2019 09:28AM

Interesting point made by Heidi Allen just now. One reason PM could be so keen on dec 12th election date is the university vote would not be as big.

This is crucial. Had to check and she is indeed correct that term time ends on dec 9th so students would be on holiday and less likely to cast vote. Johnson's own constituency is a big university one where his Labour rival is a recent graduate so easy to see why it might be very much in their thinking.

robinph · 25-10-2019 09:37AM

Danzy wrote: »

The problem with a referendum is the dragging out of this.

There already was one.

Why would anyone want this to go on.

So probably would have been a good idea a year ago then when the deal first started to emerge?

After three years and leave still can't agree on what they want, other than not remain, I don't see how dragging things out for an extra couple of months to aks the population again if this deal is really what they want could be considered a bad thing. It would be democratic after all.

Zubeneschamali · 25-10-2019 09:38AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

No one even talks about this anymore?

Iraq?

Here on Earth 1, people bring it up every time Tony Blair opens his blood-stained mouth.

Danzy · 25-10-2019 09:42AM

robinph wrote: »

So probably would have been a good idea a year ago then when the deal first started to emerge?

After three years and leave still can't agree on what they want, other than not remain, I don't see how dragging things out for an extra couple of months to aks the population again if this deal is really what they want could be considered a bad thing. It would be democratic after all.

It wouldn't be for a few months, it could be years more uncertainty. It is not certain the Ref would change the result.

It is the only deal they'll get.

Why would the EU want or honour a referendum in Britain. Just unwind years of preparation.

Another referendum is their worst nightmare.

Hurrache · 25-10-2019 09:43AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Interesting point made by Heidi Allen just now. One reason PM could be so keen on dec 12th election date is the university vote would not be as big.

This is crucial. Had to check and she is indeed correct that term time ends on dec 9th so students would be on holiday and less likely to cast vote. Johnson's own constituency is a big university one where his Labour rival is a recent graduate so easy to see why it might be very much in their thinking.

But the thing is he can't set the date as the 12th of December.

robinph · 25-10-2019 09:45AM

Danzy wrote: »

It wouldn't be for a few months, it could be years more uncertainty.

It is the only deal they'll get.

Why would the EU want that?

Another referendum is their worst nightmare.

Why would it be for years more?

Leave have finally presented their proposal for what leave means, run the referendum, count the votes, if leave wins then leave the following month.

Zubeneschamali · 25-10-2019 09:45AM

Danzy wrote: »

Why would anyone want this to go on.

If Brexit happens, it will destabilize the North after 20 years of peace.

If Brexit happens, it will hit me (and you!) right in our wallets.

If Brexit happens, it will weaken the EU, just when we need the EU to stand up against Russia in security terms, and the US and China in trade terms.

So, I want this to go on until the UK sees sense and revokes A50, and agrees to never say the word Brexit again.

Joe_ Public · 25-10-2019 09:49AM

Hurrache wrote: »

But the thing is he can't set the date as the 12th of December.

True. But it helps explain why he's so keen on that date or, merely, an early election as possible, as it counts out people who havent registered soon enough. We know from various reports that huge numbers of young people have been joining the electoral register.

https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-brexit-general-election-why-the-tories-fear-the-student-vote/

Zubeneschamali · 25-10-2019 09:49AM

Danzy wrote: »

It wouldn't be for a few months, it could be years more uncertainty.

Uncertainty is not always the worst thing.

If you are hopping on one foot at the edge of a cliff, there is uncertainty about whether you will fall off. This is bad.

Jumping off to end the uncertainty is worse.

Purgative · 25-10-2019 09:56AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Uncertainty is not always the worst thing.

If you are hopping on one foot at the edge of a cliff, there is uncertainty about whether you will fall off. This is bad.

Jumping off to end the uncertainty is worse.

Hurrah we've hit the iceberg. Now we can get on with the business of sinking.

ancapailldorcha · 25-10-2019 09:58AM

Danzy wrote: »

It wouldn't be for a few months, it could be years more uncertainty. It is not certain the Ref would change the result.

It is the only deal they'll get.

Why would the EU want or honour a referendum in Britain. Just unwind years of preparation.

Another referendum is their worst nightmare.

Another referendum will at the very least legitimise the leave result. It also means we can end this nonsense instead of pretending that signing the deal is anything other than a protraction of it.

The EU does not want to shrink. It wants the deal but it wants Britain to stay even more. The EU's leaders have never been anything short of conciliatory when discussing Brexit. They will act in the best interests of the project and the departure of a major power in securities and services is in nobody’s interest, least of all that of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The deal means we will just be back to this same point next year with another Benn act compelling the government of the day to seek an extension to the transition period which the EU will grant every single time because the UK will be completely neutralised as a threat as it will have lost its many privileges as an EU member, mainly its veto.

A referendum means politicians can either drop this or push for a hard Brexit as soon as possible with a mandate from the public.

eagle eye · 25-10-2019 10:11AM

ancapailldorcha wrote:

Another referendum will at the very least legitimise the leave result. It also means we can end this nonsense instead of pretending that signing the deal is anything other than a protraction of it.

No need for another referendum. Their European elections result tells us that.

ancapailldorcha wrote:

The EU does not want to shrink. It wants the deal but it wants Britain to stay even more. The EU's leaders have never been anything short of conciliatory when discussing Brexit. They will act in the best interests of the project and the departure of a major power in securities and services is in nobodyâ€™s interest, least of all that of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Yes its a horrible situation especially for us in the Republic and those in NI. It's not good for Europe as a whole either.
I'd love to see a change of heart in the UK but I don't see it happening anytime soon sadly.

ancapailldorcha wrote:

The deal means we will just be back to this same point next year with another Benn act compelling the government of the day to seek an extension to the transition period which the EU will grant every single time because the UK will be completely neutralised as a threat as it will have lost its many privileges as an EU member, mainly its veto.

I don't see any way this lasts another year. I think we'll see an exit sooner than that and the break up of the UK will flow pretty quickly.

ancapailldorcha wrote:

A referendum means politicians can either drop this or push for a hard Brexit as soon as possible with a mandate from the public.

No, another referendum is pointless. I realise people like to hold out hope that the Brits will change their mind but that's not happening anytime soon. I think the best case is to let it happen now, watch as Scotland first and then NI leave the UK and at some stage in the next ten years they'll all be back in the EU.

hotmail.com · 25-10-2019 10:17AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Iraq?

Here on Earth 1, people bring it up every time Tony Blair opens his blood-stained mouth.

I was replying to the campaign stuff not Iraq. Please read more carefully.

Joe_ Public · 25-10-2019 10:18AM

eagle eye wrote: »

No need for another referendum. Their European elections result tell us that.

I can agree there are some arguments against a second vote but this is hardly one of them. An angry cohort of the population voting in an election they wouldn't normally bother with might tell you some things, but not what you suggest i think. What was the turnout? 30 percent was it, or thereabouts?

robinph · 25-10-2019 10:20AM

eagle eye wrote: »

No need for another referendum. Their European elections result tells us that.

What did the EU elections tell us exactly, other than both sides claimed the results showed more support for their vision depending on how you pulled apart the numbers?

Zubeneschamali · 25-10-2019 10:24AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

I was replying to the campaign stuff not Iraq.

Calls grow for public inquiry into Brexit

Danzy · 25-10-2019 10:26AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Another referendum will at the very least legitimise the leave result. It also means we can end this nonsense instead of pretending that signing the deal is anything other than a protraction of it.

The EU does not want to shrink. It wants the deal but it wants Britain to stay even more. The EU's leaders have never been anything short of conciliatory when discussing Brexit. They will act in the best interests of the project and the departure of a major power in securities and services is in nobody’s interest, least of all that of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The deal means we will just be back to this same point next year with another Benn act compelling the government of the day to seek an extension to the transition period which the EU will grant every single time because the UK will be completely neutralised as a threat as it will have lost its many privileges as an EU member, mainly its veto.

A referendum means politicians can either drop this or push for a hard Brexit as soon as possible with a mandate from the public.

Problems with a Referendum is it is unlikely to get voted through in Westminster.

It'll take 6 months to have.

It will lead to more political instability, easy to see a lot of Working Class people walk away from Labour over that.

Tories could be hit as well.

In an ideal world the EU would love if Britain stayed. While politicians like Thatcher and Major played massive roles in making the EU what it is, greatly beyond their country's considerable stature, it has often been half in, half out.

Whatever happens, in a Remain scenario, you'd be looking at most Meps being extremely hostile to the EU. Another on going boil.

The EU want a solution and they want this deal passed.

We are probably looking at a global slowdown in the next 18 months, well overdue, that is a much bigger issue for the EU than Brexit. There is talk of interest rates in the Euirozone going down to minus 3. That is the issue that keeps the EU leaders and central banks globally restless at night not Brexit.

Due to us being so linked trade wise etc, Brexit is a major news story.

Across Europe it isn't anymore. It's viewed as done and they have largely moved on.

hotmail.com · 25-10-2019 10:28AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Calls grow for public inquiry into Brexit

6 months old.

prawnsambo · 25-10-2019 10:36AM

eagle eye wrote: »

No need for another referendum. Their European elections result tells us that.

European election results in the UK are no indication of anything really. The turnout was less than 40%.

Zubeneschamali · 25-10-2019 10:38AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

6 months old.

The Iraq War started in March 2003. The Chilcot inquiry started in 2009. Brexit hasn't even happened yet, and 6 months is nothing.

If Brexit happens, it will be being discussed in 2035 as a scandal the way Iraq is today, and will be hanging around Boris Johnson's neck the way Iraq hangs around Blair's.

Iraq discredited New Labour and the Blairites and the current civil war over Corbynism is a direct result. Likewise Brexit (if it ever happens) will split and discredit the Tory party.

It won't be worth it, though.

Danzy · 25-10-2019 10:40AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

European election results in the UK are no indication of anything really. The turnout was less than 40%.

There turnout is low and in time would return to low and the Brexit party would dominate.

MrMusician18 · 25-10-2019 10:40AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, but not so much the question of whether it is right or wrong for the UK to leave the EU.

Most Brexit critics believe the holding of the referendum and the referendum campaign was an utter shambles and those public figures defending the process as 100% legitimate are either liars or crooks.

The real issue is motivation. No one believes that the questioning of how the referendum was run was out of high mindedness and concern for the democratic process.

In fact, it is quite obvious that those who are questioning the result would question it in any circumstance that leave won. They would be critics anyway and would be looking for any chink to give legitimacy to their desire to overturn the result. Had remain won the conduct of the referendum would have been long forgotten and it would be wall to wall Trump impeachment that would be filling media.

I don't personally have a problem with a second referendum and my preference would be for the UK to remain (though the longer this has gone on, I'm questioning the wisdom of that preference).

prawnsambo · 25-10-2019 10:43AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

6 months old.

And still almost three years after the vote, but six months is irrelevant according to you.

This one is a lot newer.

Zubeneschamali · 25-10-2019 10:44AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They would be critics anyway and would be looking for any chink to give legitimacy to their desire to overturn the result.

Of course Remainers are motivated to look for evidence, that doesn't change the fact that when they looked, they found evidence of illegality.

We still don't know where Arron Banks got the millions he pumped into the Leave campaign.

Varta · 25-10-2019 10:45AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If Brexit happens, it will destabilize the North after 20 years of peace.

If Brexit happens, it will hit me (and you!) right in our wallets.

If Brexit happens, it will weaken the EU, just when we need the EU to stand up against Russia in security terms, and the US and China in trade terms.

So, I want this to go on until the UK sees sense and revokes A50, and agrees to never say the word Brexit again.

And if Brexit doesn't happen the dysfunctional UK will destabilise the EU to the extent that everything you mention above may still come to pass. Out with them and the sooner the better.

prawnsambo · 25-10-2019 10:46AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The real issue is motivation. No one believes that the questioning of how the referendum was run was out of high mindedness and concern for the democratic process.

In fact, it is quite obvious that those who are questioning the result would question it in any circumstance that leave won. They would be critics anyway and would be looking for any chink to give legitimacy to their desire to overturn the result. Had remain won the conduct of the referendum would have been long forgotten and it would be wall to wall Trump impeachment that would be filling media.

Belief does not come into it. If there are factual grounds for concern about the vote, then whether there's a questionable motivation or not on the part of those questioning the result is irrelevant.

ancapailldorcha · 25-10-2019 10:48AM

eagle eye wrote: »

No need for another referendum. Their European elections result tells us that.

No, it doesn’t. In the UK European and local elections have always served as abysmal barometers.

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes its a horrible situation especially for us in the Republic and those in NI. It's not good for Europe as a whole either.
I'd love to see a change of heart in the UK but I don't see it happening anytime soon sadly.

I see it happening. We saw a million people take to the streets last weekend. I think if the likes of Nigel Farage and Jacob Rees-Mogg thought they could win a referendum for their disaster capitalist plan then we’d have one. They don’t so we get the usual lines about 17.4 million people and democracy.

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't see any way this lasts another year. I think we'll see an exit sooner than that and the break up of the UK will flow pretty quickly.

Once the UK ceases to be a member, the EU can painlessly extend the transition period knowing that it will prevent the UK from exercising any sort of influence over the EU ever again without their consent.

eagle eye wrote: »

No, another referendum is pointless. I realise people like to hold out hope that the Brits will change their mind but that's not happening anytime soon. I think the best case is to let it happen now, watch as Scotland first and then NI leave the UK and at some stage in the next ten years they'll all be back in the EU.

So if businesses in Ireland or Northern Ireland go bust to say nothing of violence breaking out in NI again then so be it? Johnson is 45 MP’s short of a majority. With the way politics here are now, I do not consider polls to be of much use. I think Johnson is aware of his limited ability to sway people which is why he wants to ratify his deal before calling for an election. The worst thing is another hung Parliament but that might actually turn out to be a blessing as it might increase the likelihood of a People’s Vote being used as the only way to properly resolve this mess.

Varta · 25-10-2019 10:52AM

Danzy wrote: »

Problems with a Referendum is it is unlikely to get voted through in Westminster.

It'll take 6 months to have.

It will lead to more political instability, easy to see a lot of Working Class people walk away from Labour over that.

Tories could be hit as well.

In an ideal world the EU would love if Britain stayed. While politicians like Thatcher and Major played massive roles in making the EU what it is, greatly beyond their country's considerable stature, it has often been half in, half out.

Whatever happens, in a Remain scenario, you'd be looking at most Meps being extremely hostile to the EU. Another on going boil.

The EU want a solution and they want this deal passed.

We are probably looking at a global slowdown in the next 18 months, well overdue, that is a much bigger issue for the EU than Brexit. There is talk of interest rates in the Euirozone going down to minus 3. That is the issue that keeps the EU leaders and central banks globally restless at night not Brexit.

Due to us being so linked trade wise etc, Brexit is a major news story.

Across Europe it isn't anymore. It's viewed as done and they have largely moved on.

This. One of my offspring has just returned from France and tells me that few people over there are aware of what the British are up to and even less care. If only they knew that Britain is the centre of the world and the sun never sets, blah de blah.

hotmail.com · 25-10-2019 10:54AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

And still almost three years after the vote, but six months is irrelevant according to you.

This one is a lot newer.

I've just moved on from this. Most others have as well.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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