Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

lightspeed wrote: »

Seems Brits were right that the germans and french would be willing to negotaite to ensure access to the british market.

But this didn't actually happen so how could they have been right?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He might not end up dead in a ditch. Nice bonus.

Man that was a risky statement he made, some of the right wing nuts out there, would have happily seen that plan to fruition

joseywhales wrote: »

The uncertainty of the status of the UK is costing a LOT. It has to be resolved. Alienating large European countries has proven fatal I'm the past. Ireland , a member, would be devastated by UK isolationism. It's in their interest not to let the UK alienate themselves. There will be a trade deal but it will take about 10 years to negotiate.

And it would have been had EU negotiated to serve only its own interests on the whole. That is not what has happened. They have done a deal to ensure large automanufacturing companies in germany and france can sell into uk without worrying about tarrifs and delays. im open to correction but has EU not signed tarriff free deals with Japan and Canada in recebt years?

Why will Britain be treated differently?

Bambi wrote: »

All Irish politicians are short termist and could not give a fiddlers about the north insofar as they can get away with.

Except Sinn fein, who are just short termist.

Boris red lines are okay in this deal, he never really cared about the north bar numbers in parliament
The EUs red lines are intact
Ireland's red lines are now a pale shade of pink

Guess who was told to blink and did?

Could you expand on your argument with some relevant detail?

Bambi wrote: »

All Irish politicians are short termist and could not give a fiddlers about the north insofar as they can get away with.

Except Sinn fein, who are just short termist.

Boris red lines are okay in this deal, he never really cared about the north bar numbers in parliament
The EUs red lines are intact
Ireland's red lines are now a pale shade of pink

Guess who was told to blink and did?

This post is detached from reality. For starters, who do you think were the main advocates for everyone in the North but the DUP and their followers?

And blink, and being told to blink? Madness.

Frosty Perception wrote: »

it's slightly worrying that everyone is talking like this is all done 'n dusted.

i am an optimist by nature, but when it comes to Brexit i cannot help but feel there are more twist and turns on this rocky road.

are they all forgetting about the basket case that is the HoC?

I couldnt agree more. Dont see that too many are assuming its done and dusted, but there is definitely a lot more optimism around than i think is warranted. Granted, i never saw it even reaching this point in a month of sundays, but the hard work is still all to come. Lot of twists and turns to come yet for sure.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Varadkar has sacrificed the backstop in the hope that Stormont's ghost parliament puts pragmatism before patriotism. In the event that Stormont is not operational, we're relying on the UK government to convene a sitting of MLAs to push through a deal based on a simple majority.

He essentially conceded to a time limited backstop (4 years) with the difference being rather than relying on a dysfunctional Westminster at the end of the period, we're relying on a dysfunctional Stormont.

It's pretty much a permanent stop but effective from the beginning. It hasn't gone away you know.

Varta wrote: »

It is difficult to comprehend how any sentient being could look at what has occurred and be so wrong in their interpretation. Or are you trolling?

I agree with the general sentiment: this is a terrible deal for Ireland and a bad deal for those opposed to a stable no hard border in NI.
Every 4 years from here to eternity, there is a new "brexit" nightmare - or to put it another way, there will remain constant brexit forever.
This uncertainty is really bad for business in NI and the only way they can end it is vote to impose hard border or reunite with Ireland.

Furthermore, even if the northern assembly is down, the UK government can convene the MLAs to vote- so lots of scope for shenanigans and pressure brought to bear in Ireland. In addition, Ireland has now endorsed this and the UK is out the door on both the EU and the US in terms of objections on the basis of the GFA.
Of note, as of 2017, there was a unionist majority in the northern assembly - so it is not obvious that they will forever vote to keep the border open Matt O'Toole
Furthermore, those living just south of the border are among the most severely affected, yet have no voice in this.
So this is a temporary solution which creates ever increasing economic havoc until it comes to an end. What happens when/if that end is not one we like? How quickly will that end happen?
Also of not BorderIrish and Katy Hayward express reservations:
border Irish

Hayward

So I don't believe it is inappropriate to have misgivings on this.

Hurrache wrote: »

It's pretty much a permanent stop but effective from the beginning. It hasn't gone away you know.

Varadkar has conceded it has gone: "The backstop has been replaced with a new solution."

He's putting all his eggs in the Stormont basket case.

Bambi wrote: »

Do you need it explained?

Johnsons red line was consent, that Northern Ireland would get to vote on the continuation of any arrangement every four years

Varadkers red line was that there would be a guarantee that there would be no Hard Border. That was the whole purpose of the Backstop as a failsafe.

Stormont can now vote to impose a hard border.

Who's red line shifted?

Will I break out the whiteboard?

Under what circumstances will Stormont impose a hard border?

I think the important thing here is that the majority of stormont have to opt out, the default is that they stay in as far as I'm aware. It's going to have to be a very compelling case to get the majority of stormont(if it sits), after the next election when we should expect dup to be hammered, to change the status quo and opt out. The cards are stacked in favour of no border Everytime. The problem is that there is seemingly no time limit on this, every four years for 1000 years? You only have to be wrong once.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Varadkar has conceded it has gone: "The backstop has been replaced with a new solution."

He's putting all his eggs in the Stormont basket case.

Yeah, I know the solution formerly known as the backstop is gone, but it's been replaced by an alternative solution, which was always on the cards if one was proposed that was agreeable.

Frosty Perception wrote: »

an interesting caller to LBC.
DUP supporter not happy. he believes that all SF need to do is not show up in Stormont (they're good at that btw) and NI is effectively stuck in the EU. caller actually he would rather REMAIN than vote for this deal!

That was what seemed to be the case based on rumours last night. But the details outlined today appear to prevent that happening, as Tony Connelly reported:

If one side tries believes they don't have the numbers and tries to collapse Stormont there would still be a one-off consent vote, even though no MLAs are normally sitting. The vote would be based on those who turn up, and would again be based on a simple majority

So if for some reason Sinn Fein have decided not to be involved - a dispute over a rights issue for example - then it would boil down to the UK getting consent just from those who turn up. Presumably the unionists would have the numbers without Sinn Fein involvement. Means SF are now integral to the continuing protection of Ireland's all-island customs regime.

The Mary Lou-stop.