Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 4:46pm

Hoey is history, stepping down cos she'd have been deselected anyway.

prawnsambo · 17-10-2019 4:47pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Hoey is history, stepping down cos she'd have been deselected anyway.

Yeah, I know. I just brought her up as being in a remain constituency. Unless Labour select a strong remain candidate for that seat, it could go elsewhere.

Varta · 17-10-2019 4:48pm

threeball wrote: »

The UK got their victory in these talks. Despite dealing with some very unscrupulous people the EU/Ireland caved. The very idea of the form of consent being a vote by two of the most hard line and unreliable parties in politics somehow not conspiring to use this process as petty points scoring is remote to say the least. Any invester would be mental to put money in to NI with such an arrangement.

We in the south now have to watch the unending soap opera of a mini brexit in the north forever more whilst the threat of a hard border returning will ensure the republican and unionist terrorist types have a reason to stick around forever. They were so desperate for a deal they came up with one of the sh1ttiest imaginable.

It is difficult to comprehend how any sentient being could look at what has occurred and be so wrong in their interpretation. Or are you trolling?

Rjd2 · 17-10-2019 4:49pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Last time I checked, I thought Hoey's seat in Vauxhall was one that voted remain.

Sorry posted the above in a rush.

Hoey has held that seat easily since for nearly 30 years.

She finished 20 000 votes clear of the Lib Dems in 2017. I don't like her, but no way does she lose that seat when the election arrives.

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 4:50pm

Tories think they can compete for Labour seats in the North. "Bolsover over Guildford", is a slogan I've seen, meaning they'll abandon a lot of their seats down south and target ones they believe they can win. Sounds risky to me but that's what they believe. Labour will still fight like dogs to keep their old base, wouldn't write them off completely.

Varta · 17-10-2019 4:50pm

RickBlaine wrote: »

If we get to a situation where the UK requests an extension, I still cannot see the EU refusing it. If they do, they will be seen to have been a cause of a no-deal crash out.

So having bent over backwards for three years and finally saying enough is enough, you think the EU is to blame. Really?

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 4:52pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, I know. I just brought her up as being in a remain constituency. Unless Labour select a strong remain candidate for that seat, it could go elsewhere.

No worries, I doubt it's on any remain alliance target list all the same. It's one of safest lab seats in the UK, might have reduced vote but still little danger id think.

ancapailldorcha · 17-10-2019 4:55pm

Varta wrote: »

So having bent over backwards for three years and finally saying enough is enough, you think the EU is to blame. Really?

The EU don't want to be responsible for letting the UK crash out which is why they've agreed to the extensions. When Brexit fails, it needs to be the UK's own fault, not the EU's.

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 4:59pm

Professor Genius wrote: »

Paddypower odds on deal passing is 5/6. Also 5/6 on not passing

You can get 5/2 for a deal on Coral.

moon2 · 17-10-2019 4:59pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I don't think this is allowed.
All acts must have a status quo option so you vote Yes or No where No implies nothing changes.
You can't have a Change 1 v Change 2 vote in the HoC.

That makes a lot more sense. I assume the phrasing Boris is using is deliberately misleading then. Still, I can't wait for this vote!

Seth Brundle · 17-10-2019 5:00pm

Mod: in case it arises agin - this thread is not for discussing SF's abstentionist policy!!!

ToBeFrank123 · 17-10-2019 5:01pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

This is nonsense and not a chance of this happening. Labour will hold the bulk of their seats in 'their areas' like the North East or Welsh ex-mining towns. Voting for Brexit against the wishes of Labour was one thing, but these constituencies are generations away from actually voting Tory.
And on the other side of the Pennines the leave voting suburb constituencies of Liverpool are just not going to ever vote for Boris.

As I said, these constituencies voted to leave, some with fairly significant Leave majorities. A vote for Labour would mean the whole sh*tshow is continued on again. They will veer towards Conservatives and Brexit party for one election only and that's all these parties need. Corbyn's wishy-washy approach is not going down well with anyone except maybe his Momentum base who represent a miniscule part of the electorate.

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:05pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

Sorry posted the above in a rush.

Hoey has held that seat easily since for nearly 30 years.

She finished 20 000 votes clear of the Lib Dems in 2017. I don't like her, but no way does she lose that seat when the election arrives.

I thought she said she wasn't running again?
Or did I imagine that?

Itssoeasy · 17-10-2019 5:06pm

So rugby World Cup games Saturday morning along with the brexit vote ? Amazing day of sport on Saturday and one for the ages.

The parliamentary arithmetic are tighter than a ducks arse from what I can see, and it was a quick glance at the wiki page of the commons make up and a very quick guesstimate as how many will and won't vote.

Varta · 17-10-2019 5:06pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The EU don't want to be responsible for letting the UK crash out which is why they've agreed to the extensions. When Brexit fails, it needs to be the UK's own fault, not the EU's.

Change just one word 'letting' for 'causing' and everything changes. It's different now. The EU compromised and went back into negotiations on the WA once more. There is no reason to believe that they will do that again. And that would be the only purpose for an extension, because if the UK don't want this deal they can always revoke. It's up to them. For this reason it is very plausible that the EU have decide enough is enough.

ToBeFrank123 · 17-10-2019 5:09pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is nonsense.

There is no election due until 2022 under the FTPA and under normal circumstances if the Gov had a working majority. The Tories are disintegrating midterm and now, without the FTPA, they would call a GE, but cannot because they do not have the votes.

That is how the HoC works. The Gov needs to have a majority - but they currently do not, so they can be pushed around by the opposition.

As I said, an extension until January without an election and with the same HoC make up would be farcical. It would achieve nothing. The DUP have been against everything since December 2017. Its guaranteed they will not change their mind in 3 months. And its unlikely another deal will be negotiated in 3 months that everyone can agree to. So without an election, an extension is pointless.

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 5:10pm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As I said, these constituencies voted to leave, some with fairly significant Leave majorities. A vote for Labour would mean the whole sh*tshow is continued on again. They will veer towards Conservatives and Brexit party for one election only and that's all these parties need. Corbyn's wishy-washy approach is not going down well with anyone except maybe his Momentum base who represent a miniscule part of the electorate.

One other factor is that a lot of the leave vote in 2016 was from people who never usually voted in elections, especially in more working class areas, so you're working off assumption they'll be mobilised this time too. A lot of them possibly, but you couldn't say it with any degree of certainty. Lot could depend on the campaigning.

prawnsambo · 17-10-2019 5:10pm

gmisk wrote: »

I thought she said she wasn't running again?
Or did I imagine that?

No, you're correct. She was going to be deselected anyway. Some talk that she's off to the BP, but unlikely in Vauxhall which was the strongest remain constituency in England.

Rjd2 · 17-10-2019 5:11pm

gmisk wrote: »

I thought she said she wasn't running again?
Or did I imagine that?

Nope you are correct.

I forgot all about that.:o

joe40 · 17-10-2019 5:16pm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As I said, an extension until January without an election and with the same HoC make up would be farcical. It would achieve nothing. The DUP have been against everything since December 2017. Its guaranteed they will not change their mind in 3 months. And its unlikely another deal will be negotiated in 3 months that everyone can agree to. So without an election, an extension is pointless.

Surely it would be inconceivable that labour and the lib Dems would not force an election during extension period. Boris has a minority government so extension would guarantee a general election in the UK

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:17pm

DUP have been thrown under the bus basically?
And have no veto?
Lovely stuff

Sam Russell · 17-10-2019 5:17pm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

As I said, an extension until January without an election and with the same HoC make up would be farcical. It would achieve nothing. The DUP have been against everything since December 2017. Its guaranteed they will not change their mind in 3 months. And its unlikely another deal will be negotiated in 3 months that everyone can agree to. So without an election, an extension is pointless.

That maybe so, but the farce is not the lack of an election, it is the lack of a majority for anything. They have voted against everything and voted for nothing. It is not up to us or the EU to change anything just because they do not like it.

Other than getting a bit of sense, there is no real escape.

RickBlaine · 17-10-2019 5:17pm

Varta wrote: »

So having bent over backwards for three years and finally saying enough is enough, you think the EU is to blame. Really?

No I don't think that at all.

joseywhales · 17-10-2019 5:17pm

I am very curious to see how the dup fair in the next election, I will have lost all faith in NI if they achieve a majority. They basically ignored all business and farming interests and the popular vote in their country.

Rjd2 · 17-10-2019 5:18pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

You can get 5/2 for a deal on Coral.

Powers have it 5/6 v 5/6 as in the note of that bet....

HOUSE OF COMMONS TO VOTE THROUGH WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT IN 2019

So its not Saturdays vote as obviously their may be another vote before 2020.

On Betfair its 2/5 that the UK will not leave the EU by 31/10 which makes sense as its very much odds against they lose Saturday and require another extension.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.157669732

FrancieBrady · 17-10-2019 5:19pm

joseywhales wrote: »

I am very curious to see how the dup fair in the next election, I will have lost all faith in NI if they achieve a majority. They basically ignored all business and farming interests and the popular vote in their country.

Think it might take a few election cycles. I'd expect a bit of manning the barricades first.

ToBeFrank123 · 17-10-2019 5:21pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

One other factor is that a lot of the leave vote in 2016 was from people who never usually voted in elections, especially in more working class areas, so you're working off assumption they'll be mobilised this time too. A lot of them possibly, but you couldn't say it with any degree of certainty. Lot could depend on the campaigning.

Its not just from the Tories and Brexit party though that Labour need to be worried.

Corbyn has led on neither Leave or Remain. The Tories have largely been clear on leaving and the Lib Dems have been clear on remaining, and will fight the election on those platforms.

Many Labour leavers will vote Conservative or Brexit Party. And many remainers will vote Lib Dems.

circadian · 17-10-2019 5:21pm

joseywhales wrote: »

I am very curious to see how the dup fair in the next election, I will have lost all faith in NI if they achieve a majority. They basically ignored all business and farming interests and the popular vote in their country.

They lost seats last time around, I would expect to see that trend continue after their behaviour over Brexit.

Sam Russell · 17-10-2019 5:25pm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not just from the Tories and Brexit party though that Labour need to be worried.

Corbyn has led on neither Leave or Remain. The Tories have largely been clear on leaving and the Lib Dems have been clear on remaining, and will fight the election on those platforms.

Many Labour leavers will vote Conservative or Brexit Party. And many remainers will vote Lib Dems.

I doubt that. I never can understand a true Labour voter voting anything else.

The election will be fought by Labour on the Tory austerity, the sell off of the NHS, and the Nasty Party and what they have done to you, and will do to you.

Brexit will have happened or not, but Labour need to get the Tories OUT. [Least that is the line Corbyn will use].

one armed dwarf · 17-10-2019 5:27pm

I must admit I'm finding it hard to follow this development. It kind of seems like it's not really the best outcome for us? That DUP still have a veto on any arrangement made for NI.

Still seems we are going to live in Brexit hangover land forever

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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