Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 5:27pm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its not just from the Tories and Brexit party though that Labour need to be worried.

Corbyn has led on neither Leave or Remain. The Tories have largely been clear on leaving and the Lib Dems have been clear on remaining, and will fight the election on those platforms.

Many Labour leavers will vote Conservative or Brexit Party. And many remainers will vote Lib Dems.

Could be, it's all very volatile and Labour clearly have challenges, that's unquestionable. But so do tories and possibly even bigger ones. Also, we should recall that 2017 was billed as a brexit election yet polls show it turned out to be as much about other issues and if lab can repeat that they have a chance of doing ok. It's an if though!

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:27pm

circadian wrote: »

They lost seats last time around, I would expect to see that trend continue after their behaviour over Brexit.

I'd expect the alliance to pick up some seats fingers crossed

Mr.Nice Guy · 17-10-2019 5:28pm

Looks like Johnson is 15 to 20 votes short.

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1184865494286962688

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:29pm

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I must admit I'm finding it hard to follow this development. It kind of seems like it's not really the best outcome for us? That DUP still have a veto on any arrangement made for NI.

Still seems we are going to live in Brexit hangover land forever

I didn't think the DUP would have a veto?
At least that's what they said on sky news...

prawnsambo · 17-10-2019 5:29pm

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I must admit I'm finding it hard to follow this development. It kind of seems like it's not really the best outcome for us? That DUP still have a veto on any arrangement made for NI.

Still seems we are going to live in Brexit hangover land forever

No veto. It has to be a majority in Stormont.

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:31pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

No veto. It has to be a majority in Stormont.

Brilliant news IMO.
They have already vetoed marriage equality in NI

VinLieger · 17-10-2019 5:31pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Looks like Johnson is 15 to 20 votes short.

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1184865494286962688

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

Starmer is already trying to lay the ground work that this deal is far worse than Mays, if they can win that war over the message then johnson might be in trouble

Strazdas · 17-10-2019 5:34pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Looks like Johnson is 15 to 20 votes short.

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1184865494286962688

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

Johnson falling short seems to be the best guess right now.

The new WA would still stand of course : the only way the UK can legally leave the EU in an orderly fashion is via the new deal.

joseywhales · 17-10-2019 5:35pm

I am happy with that, even if they vote to leave(which is hard to imagine) it is real consent and fair.

The dup have been stripped down to what they are, a dying party that does not follow it's democratic mandate, not representing the interests of it's constituents. Instead they have let fear overcome them, institutionalized by their own rhetoric. Hopefully the alliance party dominates NI in the coming decades, so they can move toward a future dominated by the actual concerns of normal citizens.

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:36pm

Frosty Perception wrote: »

this is not a time for triumphalism imo.
tbh i dont think they (EU, BJ etc.) had any other choice except never ending paralysis. the irony is they could well end up having the best of both worlds, but are too obstinate/blind to see it.
they must be getting some serious flak from their constituents. i cannot believe business people, farmers in those parts are so docile.

and even the most staunch of DUP must also realise, that the majority of Brits now consider them a nuisance to put it mildly.

It is not triumphalism, the DUP have really played this badly, they could have positioned northern Ireland in a really excellent place, don't forget the majority in northern Ireland wanted to remain.
Instead they predictably yelled on about the union the union, got into bed with Boris and the conservatives and they happily threw them under a big red bus the first chance they had.

Enzokk · 17-10-2019 5:36pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Tories think they can compete for Labour seats in the North. "Bolsover over Guildford", is a slogan I've seen, meaning they'll abandon a lot of their seats down south and target ones they believe they can win. Sounds risky to me but that's what they believe. Labour will still fight like dogs to keep their old base, wouldn't write them off completely.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

Labour will need a strong manifesto, and they have the past 9 years of Tory Government to use as well. Will people really be happy to give the keys back to the same people that has made their lives hell and admit austerity wasn't really needed?

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:39pm

EU leaders speaking decently and with great generosity as expected.
Leo spoke really well

prawnsambo · 17-10-2019 5:40pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

No veto. It has to be a majority in Stormont.

Tony Connelly (who else) has an excellent thread that very clearly explains it here. Covers all the eventualities.

joseywhales · 17-10-2019 5:41pm

If you offered her reinstitution of Catholic penal laws, she would reject it, at this stage.

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:42pm

Frosty Perception wrote: »

i think you are mistaken in portraying it like BJ did this gleefully. i doubt that.
more like "it is nothing personal Arlene. just politics."

He threw them under the bus....like most people said they would.

ToBeFrank123 · 17-10-2019 5:42pm

Are the UUP much different to the DUP when it comes to the Irish sea border?

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 5:42pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Labour will need a strong manifesto, and they have the past 9 years of Tory Government to use as well. Will people really be happy to give the keys back to the same people that has made their lives hell and admit austerity wasn't really needed?

Seems to me Labour is the only party who will seriously address the issues facing a lot of those deprived areas in the UK, but a lot of those voters might well abandon them just for the casual thrill of sticking one to the establishment of which Corbyn oddly is seen as a part by many, just for simply being a Londoner. Everything is going a bit weird over there in past few years.

FrancieBrady · 17-10-2019 5:44pm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Are the UUP much different to the DUP when it comes to the Irish sea border?

They oppose it as well.

Headshot · 17-10-2019 5:45pm

You have to love Juncker when asked about the 48% of the UK voting to stay in the EU

"They were right"

lol

Water John · 17-10-2019 5:45pm

There will be a lot of other issues in the public mind in the UK, we're looking at a possible GE only through Brexit eyes.
A GE takes on its own life. Other parties will get a fairer shake from the media during a GE also. Would be hard to read how the mood would go, but you have to say the Tories will certainly lose seats in Scotland and SW England. They actually need to increase by 10/20 seats. That means they have to gain 30/40 in the rest of the country.

17-10-2019 5:48pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

This is nonsense and not a chance of this happening. Labour will hold the bulk of their seats in 'their areas' like the North East or Welsh ex-mining towns. Voting for Brexit against the wishes of Labour was one thing, but these constituencies are generations away from actually voting Tory.
And on the other side of the Pennines the leave voting suburb constituencies of Liverpool are just not going to ever vote for Boris.

They don't need to vote Tory for Labour to lose the seat, there are other Pro-Brexit parties that will get their vote.

Itssoeasy · 17-10-2019 5:48pm

Did I imagine it or was it a parody account(I've seen journalists get caught with this) where Nigel farage was defending the benn act ? IF that's true then a Romanian gymnast comes to mind from the 1976 Olympics.

joseywhales · 17-10-2019 5:49pm

I found it funny listening to the channel 4 interview with that real ira guy a couple of weeks back. He was giving some rhetoric on the rep of Ireland political parties having capitilist agendas in a derogatory way. As he continues to live his crap life, causing problems for scores of innocent families and in the end it is the capatilist agenda that will achieve his goals that he will never be able to affect, despite the pain and suffering he created.

lightspeed · 17-10-2019 5:51pm

Im confused why nothing is being mentioned of tarrifs even with a deal?

it seems the brits will definately want a zero tarrif deal and worries that Angela Merkel at behest of german auto industry will push for the same.

If they get zero tariff deal it hard to see how they not having their cake and eating it?

What the point of staying in EU if you can trade within EU tarrif free and have control over immigration etc and no longer have to pay into EU budget?

joe40 · 17-10-2019 5:52pm

joseywhales wrote: »

I found it funny listening to the channel 4 interview with that real ira guy a couple of weeks back. He was giving some rhetoric on the rep of Ireland political parties having capitilist agendas in a derogatory way. As he continues to live his crap life, causing problems for scores of innocent families and in the end it is the capatilist agenda that will achieve his goals that he will never be able to affect, despite the pain and suffering he created.

People like him are dangerous and will appeal to some, but in terms of actual political thinking they're about as relevant as the kinahan cartel.

joseywhales · 17-10-2019 5:53pm

lightspeed wrote: »

Im confused why nothing is being mentioned of tarrifs even with a deal?

it seems the brits will definately want a zero tarrif deal and worries that Angela Merkel at behest of german auto industry will push for the same.

If they get zero tariff deal it hard to see how they not having their cake and eating it?

What the point of staying in EU if you can trade within EU tarrif free and have control over immigration etc and no longer have to pay into EU budget?

My belief is that they would have to pay for market access the same as the other European ,non EU countries on the periphery. They will pay in some way.

Mr.Nice Guy · 17-10-2019 5:55pm

Barnier has done a great job and has kept his dignity throughout despite the provocation from disrespectful Brexiters.

When this is all done and dusted he deserves a lot of thanks from the EU 27, especially ourselves. Not sure he'll be able to book himself a vacation any time soon though as Westminster may keep the circus going a little longer.

gmisk · 17-10-2019 5:57pm

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Are the UUP much different to the DUP when it comes to the Irish sea border?

No idea...there vote has been on the slide for a very long time

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 17-10-2019 5:57pm

What are the chances of the Northern Ireland assembly voting for a hard border in the future? If Stormant is up and running.

Is there a Unionist majority vote for it there?

joseywhales · 17-10-2019 5:58pm

Barnier!

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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