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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Tories think they can compete for Labour seats in the North. "Bolsover over Guildford", is a slogan I've seen, meaning they'll abandon a lot of their seats down south and target ones they believe they can win. Sounds risky to me but that's what they believe. Labour will still fight like dogs to keep their old base, wouldn't write them off completely.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

If he fails to get the numbers and an election follows, I could see Labour getting hammered as Johnson positions himself as the dealmaker thwarted by an intransigent parliament.

Labour will need a strong manifesto, and they have the past 9 years of Tory Government to use as well. Will people really be happy to give the keys back to the same people that has made their lives hell and admit austerity wasn't really needed?

gmisk

EU leaders speaking decently and with great generosity as expected.
Leo spoke really well

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

No veto. It has to be a majority in Stormont.

Tony Connelly (who else) has an excellent thread that very clearly explains it here. Covers all the eventualities.

joseywhales

If you offered her reinstitution of Catholic penal laws, she would reject it, at this stage.

gmisk

Frosty Perception wrote: »

i think you are mistaken in portraying it like BJ did this gleefully. i doubt that.
more like "it is nothing personal Arlene. just politics."

He threw them under the bus....like most people said they would.

ToBeFrank123

Are the UUP much different to the DUP when it comes to the Irish sea border?

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

Labour will need a strong manifesto, and they have the past 9 years of Tory Government to use as well. Will people really be happy to give the keys back to the same people that has made their lives hell and admit austerity wasn't really needed?

Seems to me Labour is the only party who will seriously address the issues facing a lot of those deprived areas in the UK, but a lot of those voters might well abandon them just for the casual thrill of sticking one to the establishment of which Corbyn oddly is seen as a part by many, just for simply being a Londoner. Everything is going a bit weird over there in past few years.

FrancieBrady

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Are the UUP much different to the DUP when it comes to the Irish sea border?

They oppose it as well.

Headshot

You have to love Juncker when asked about the 48% of the UK voting to stay in the EU

"They were right"

lol

Water John

There will be a lot of other issues in the public mind in the UK, we're looking at a possible GE only through Brexit eyes.
A GE takes on its own life. Other parties will get a fairer shake from the media during a GE also. Would be hard to read how the mood would go, but you have to say the Tories will certainly lose seats in Scotland and SW England. They actually need to increase by 10/20 seats. That means they have to gain 30/40 in the rest of the country.

[Deleted User]

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

This is nonsense and not a chance of this happening. Labour will hold the bulk of their seats in 'their areas' like the North East or Welsh ex-mining towns. Voting for Brexit against the wishes of Labour was one thing, but these constituencies are generations away from actually voting Tory.
And on the other side of the Pennines the leave voting suburb constituencies of Liverpool are just not going to ever vote for Boris.

They don't need to vote Tory for Labour to lose the seat, there are other Pro-Brexit parties that will get their vote.

Itssoeasy

Did I imagine it or was it a parody account(I've seen journalists get caught with this) where Nigel farage was defending the benn act ? IF that's true then a Romanian gymnast comes to mind from the 1976 Olympics.

joseywhales

I found it funny listening to the channel 4 interview with that real ira guy a couple of weeks back. He was giving some rhetoric on the rep of Ireland political parties having capitilist agendas in a derogatory way. As he continues to live his crap life, causing problems for scores of innocent families and in the end it is the capatilist agenda that will achieve his goals that he will never be able to affect, despite the pain and suffering he created.

lightspeed

Im confused why nothing is being mentioned of tarrifs even with a deal?

it seems the brits will definately want a zero tarrif deal and worries that Angela Merkel at behest of german auto industry will push for the same.

If they get zero tariff deal it hard to see how they not having their cake and eating it?

What the point of staying in EU if you can trade within EU tarrif free and have control over immigration etc and no longer have to pay into EU budget?

joe40

joseywhales wrote: »

I found it funny listening to the channel 4 interview with that real ira guy a couple of weeks back. He was giving some rhetoric on the rep of Ireland political parties having capitilist agendas in a derogatory way. As he continues to live his crap life, causing problems for scores of innocent families and in the end it is the capatilist agenda that will achieve his goals that he will never be able to affect, despite the pain and suffering he created.

People like him are dangerous and will appeal to some, but in terms of actual political thinking they're about as relevant as the kinahan cartel.

joseywhales

lightspeed wrote: »

Im confused why nothing is being mentioned of tarrifs even with a deal?

it seems the brits will definately want a zero tarrif deal and worries that Angela Merkel at behest of german auto industry will push for the same.

If they get zero tariff deal it hard to see how they not having their cake and eating it?

What the point of staying in EU if you can trade within EU tarrif free and have control over immigration etc and no longer have to pay into EU budget?

My belief is that they would have to pay for market access the same as the other European ,non EU countries on the periphery. They will pay in some way.

Mr.Nice Guy

Barnier has done a great job and has kept his dignity throughout despite the provocation from disrespectful Brexiters.

When this is all done and dusted he deserves a lot of thanks from the EU 27, especially ourselves. Not sure he'll be able to book himself a vacation any time soon though as Westminster may keep the circus going a little longer.

gmisk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Are the UUP much different to the DUP when it comes to the Irish sea border?

No idea...there vote has been on the slide for a very long time

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

What are the chances of the Northern Ireland assembly voting for a hard border in the future? If Stormant is up and running.

Is there a Unionist majority vote for it there?

joseywhales

Barnier!

Professor Moriarty

Report on Varadkar at press conference:

He says he has learnt two things about the EU in his two years as taoiseach. He has seen the unity of the EU, and what it can achieve if it stands together. This is a lesson for the future, he says.

And he says he has felt, as leader of a small country, “enormous solidarity” from the EU. Sometime small states like Ireland think they will be swallowed up by an organisation like the EU. But Ireland has felt respected.

He says he feels sad about Brexit. It is like an old friend going on a journey. He hopes it works out for them. But there will always be a place for the UK if it wants to come back.

Kudos.

Duane Dibbley

I’m delighted again how the EU handled this.

Looked like the good guys in the TM deal. Parliament blamed TM. No Deal

Looked like the good guys in the BJ deal. Parliament blame BJ. Atari Jaguar.

prawnsambo

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Barnier has done a great job and has kept his dignity throughout despite the provocation from disrespectful Brexiters.

When this is all done and dusted he deserves a lot of thanks from the EU 27, especially ourselves. Not sure he'll be able to book himself a vacation any time soon though as Westminster may keep the circus going a little longer.

It's alright. Big Phil is on the case.

[Deleted User]

lightspeed wrote: »

Im confused why nothing is being mentioned of tarrifs even with a deal?

it seems the brits will definately want a zero tarrif deal and worries that Angela Merkel at behest of german auto industry will push for the same.

If they get zero tariff deal it hard to see how they not having their cake and eating it?

What the point of staying in EU if you can trade within EU tarrif free and have control over immigration etc and no longer have to pay into EU budget?

The reason you heard nothing is because this (if approved etc) is only the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.

Arguably the real hard negotiating has yet to come.

lightspeed

joseywhales wrote: »

My belief is that they would have to pay for market access the same as the other European ,non EU countries on the periphery. They will pay in some way.

perhaps by allowing EU members access to british fishing waters in exchange for tariff free deal.

im at a loss why the EU facilitated a deal at all. if they had of refused to negotiate any futher it would have ended with another referendum and most likely they would have chosen to remain. They passed the benn act in britain ensuring a no deal wasnt going to pass so there woukd have been no other outcome other than new referendum. That would be EU interests so why did they not seek to make a deal?

Seems Brits were right that the germans and french would be willing to negotaite to ensure access to the british market.

FrancieBrady

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

What are the chances the Northern Ireland assembly voting for a hard border in the future? If Stormant is up and running.

Is there a Unionist majority vote there?

That's where they are kind of snookered. Imagine going looking votes to set up a hard border among the business and farming community?

It forces them to be directly responsible for a hard border and separation from the EU...not going to happen.

mrbrianj

What matters to the DUP can be understood by their meetings last week with business and farmers.....well actually the UVF UDA - terrorists to you and me - stakeholders to the DUP.

Anyway, if they pull the plug they will be left holding the blame by all sides.

Hurrache

Johnson seems relieved during his press conference anyway.

Headshot

Hurrache wrote: »

Johnson seems relieved during his press conference anyway.

He does alright, he looks like all that pressure is off his shoulders

joseywhales

lightspeed wrote: »

perhaps by allowing EU members access to british fishing waters in exchange for tariff free deal.

im at a loss why the EU facilitated a deal at all. if they had of refused to negotiate any futher it would have ended with another referendum and most likely they would have chosen to remain. They passed the benn act in britain ensuring a no deal wasnt going to pass so there woukd have been no other outcome other than new referendum. That would be EU interests so why did they not seek to make a deal?

Seems Brits were right that the germans and french would be willing to negotaite to ensure access to the british market.

The uncertainty of the status of the UK is costing a LOT. It has to be resolved. Alienating large European countries has proven fatal I'm the past. Ireland , a member, would be devastated by UK isolationism. It's in their interest not to let the UK alienate themselves. There will be a trade deal but it will take about 10 years to negotiate.