Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 10:08am

Has the Irish government actually assented to that consent section?

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 10:10am

lawred2 wrote: »

Has the Irish government actually assented to that consent section?

Haven't seen said explicitly but if EU are signed up, as suggested, it would certainly imply it.

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 10:10am

lawred2 wrote: »

Has the Irish government actually assented to that consent section?

Presumably yes. I suspect this might be the bones of the arrangement that Johnson and Varadkar came to in Cheshire.

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 10:13am

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Haven't seen said explicitly but if EU are signed up, as suggested, it would certainly imply it.

J Mysterio wrote: »

Presumably yes. I suspect this might be the bones of the arrangement that Johnson and Varadkar came to in Cheshire.

If it's as reported - then I'm seriously not impressed

Russman · 17-10-2019 10:15am

Professor Genius wrote: »

Cross community vote would mean both Nationalist and Unionist parties would need to agree to stay in after 4 years

That's what I thought, but Tony C mentions that cross community majority is seen as favourable for the DUB and simple majority seen as less favourable for them.
Maybe I'm just being stupid this morning, but I just can't reconcile that.

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 10:17am

Russman wrote: »

That's what I thought, but Tony C mentions that cross community majority is seen as favourable for the DUB and simple majority seen as less favourable for them.
Maybe I'm just being stupid this morning, but I just can't reconcile that.

I guess because cross community support would in theory be harder to achieve, either side could conceivably collapse the assembly to get their way. With a third of seats guaranteeing a majority might not be so achievable.

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 10:18am

Wow... Check out these reports

https://twitter.com/dli_odoir/status/1184736716114006016

https://twitter.com/dli_odoir/status/1184736268544073729

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 10:18am

Russman wrote: »

That's what I thought, but Tony C mentions that cross community majority is seen as favourable for the DUB and simple majority seen as less favourable for them.
Maybe I'm just being stupid this morning, but I just can't reconcile that.

simple

cross community means a majority in both communities... But the DUP feel that they could engineer a majority in their own community to break from the agreement and it wouldn't matter a toss what themmuns voted for.

It's basically a unionist veto as far as I read it.

However a simple majority across NI would be near impossible for the DUP to engineer. And they know that.

joe40 · 17-10-2019 10:19am

The DUP only represent 10 MPs out of over 600 and a tiny percentage of the electorate of the UK.
Why is their position given so much importance.

The GFA is one of the most successful peace agreements in the world in recent times and the DUP totally opposed it. (See the apoplectic Ruth Patterson video posted earlier)

If it was up to the DUP there would be no GFA.

If the HoC arithmetic is so tight that 10 votes will make a difference it will still be a very divided parliament in Britain.

LeinsterDub · 17-10-2019 10:19am

lawred2 wrote: »

If it's as reported - then I'm seriously not impressed

Why they've achieved what the backstop was intended to achieve. No hard border

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 10:21am

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Why they've achieved what the backstop was intended to achieve. No hard border

they've kicked the can down the road and given the green light for the DUP to depart from the agreement in four years' time..

how is that a 'backstop'? Unless and until?

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 10:22am

lawred2 wrote: »

simple

cross community means a majority in both communities... But the DUP feel that they could engineer a majority in their own community to break from the agreement and it wouldn't matter a toss what themmuns voted for.

It's basically a unionist veto as far as I read it.

However a simple majority across NI would be near impossible for the DUP to engineer. And they know that.

No.

The mooted arrangement is a simple majority leads to 4 more years.
If both communities support, can be extended to 8 years.

farmchoice · 17-10-2019 10:22am

andrew bridgen on the radio there saying if the DUP reject it so will he and so will most of the ERG.
this gives the DUP great cover as the vote will be lost by a lot more than their votes.

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 10:23am

J Mysterio wrote: »

No.

The mooted arrangement is a simple majority leads to 4 more years.
If both communities support, can be extended to 8 years.

Ok... that's a damn sight better. I can get onboard with that.

Makes sense why the DUP have flounced then.

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 10:24am

farmchoice wrote: »

andrew bridgen on the radio there saying if the DUP reject it so will he and so will most of the ERG.
this gives the DUP great cover as the vote will be lost by a lot more than their votes.

grand..

That's the Tories last chance shot then. They won't get another shot at Brexit. That's the best outcome all round.

farmchoice · 17-10-2019 10:25am

J Mysterio wrote: »

No.

The mooted arrangement is a simple majority leads to 4 more years.
If both communities support, can be extended to 8 years.

as it was explained on the radio the proposl as as follows.

vote after 4 years
if voted down, 2 year cooling off period
if in these 2 years stormont collapses the status quo remains (backstop in force)
so even if the DUP got a vote over the line to leave the backstop SF just have to collapse stormount to ensure no change in status.

Dyr · 17-10-2019 10:26am

lawred2 wrote: »

simple

cross community means a majority in both communities... But the DUP feel that they could engineer a majority in their own community to break from the agreement and it wouldn't matter a toss what themmuns voted for.

It's basically a unionist veto as far as I read it.

However a simple majority across NI would be near impossible for the DUP to engineer. And they know that.

Anyone who's watched the chaos in the UK parliament thanks to the two main parties dysfunction and then claims it could never happen in stormont is deliberately disingenuous or deluded. Coveney and Varadker made a big production about not letting the British government undermining the GFA , and then they did exactly that themselves

SeaBreezes · 17-10-2019 10:27am

lobbylad wrote: »

So, under the rumoured deal, how would the following work out:

(a) I order something from amazon UK, shipped to my home, I get charged any excise/tariffs as UK is a non EU country

(b) I register a parcelmotel NI address, order on amazon UK, its shipped to the NI address, no excise as its internal UK, then its forwarded to Dublin, again no excise/tariffs as its across the NI/ROI border.

Seems the route of my parcel would allow me to avoid EU charges?

Or buy from amazon.de. Though I do wonder how parcel motel will fare in this new landscape.

J Mysterio · 17-10-2019 10:27am

lawred2 wrote: »

grand..

That's the Tories last chance shot then. They won't get another shot at Brexit. That's the best outcome all round.

Such self important little twerps. 66 million in the UK and 450 odd million in the EU all dancing to the tune of 10 MP's representing at most around 250k voters.

The concession and movement from the EU has been remarkable when it hasn't needed to move at all.

The pressure is mostly on the UK - it is their economy which is being strangled by the uncertainty and their society which is at the brink of breakdown.

LeinsterDub · 17-10-2019 10:28am

lawred2 wrote: »

they've kicked the can down the road and given the green light for the DUP to depart from the agreement in four years' time..

how is that a 'backstop'? Unless and until?

Same way is if the UK agreed to a deal and then after a few years pulled the plug on it.

My understanding is the DUP don't have a veto . If they do it's a useless but if it's by the democratic will of a majority in NI I don't see how we can object to it

gooch2k9 · 17-10-2019 10:29am

lawred2 wrote: »

grand..

That's the Tories last chance shot then. They won't get another shot at Brexit. That's the best outcome all round.

They're favourite to win the next election though?

Kermit.de.frog · 17-10-2019 10:29am

Sterling has just shot up.

Has something happened?

golfball37 · 17-10-2019 10:29am

farmchoice wrote: »

andrew bridgen on the radio there saying if the DUP reject it so will he and so will most of the ERG.
this gives the DUP great cover as the vote will be lost by a lot more than their votes.

A lot them voted for May's deal the third time round. Its backs to the wall for them now. Rejecting this could finish Brexit.

VinLieger · 17-10-2019 10:31am

lawred2 wrote: »

they've kicked the can down the road and given the green light for the DUP to depart from the agreement in four years' time..

how is that a 'backstop'? Unless and until?

The DUP will never win an election again if they run on a leave platform.

The overwhelming majority support the backstop or backstop like arrangements.

Also demographics are projected trending against the DUP for the foreseeable future.

Dytalus · 17-10-2019 10:31am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sterling has just shot up.

Has something happened?

Deal's done. Eager to see what the final consent decision is.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184763635731750912

Kermit.de.frog · 17-10-2019 10:32am

Agreement reached!

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 10:33am

I want to see the consent section!

FrancieBrady · 17-10-2019 10:33am

Is he going ahead without the DUP?

Harry Palmr · 17-10-2019 10:34am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sterling has just shot up.

Has something happened?

Tony Connelly has trodden on his phone.

So then was the DUP statement this morning the classic "no no no no - yes" strategy. It's underlined their cultural position but now comes the realpolitik.

SeaBreezes · 17-10-2019 10:35am

Dytalus wrote: »

Deal's done. Eager to see what the final consent decision is.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184763635731750912

Yet again Tony Connelly tweet affecting Sterling. :-)

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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