Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

mickoneill31

The BrexitCast podcast is normally inane but todays is good. They've an expert on about Vat explaining the issues for vat, post Brexit.

It's a an old one so doesn't cover the current shenanigans.

Atlantic Dawn

I presume whatever 'deal' is agreed still needs to go before the House Of Commons for a vote in which case with no DUP backing it hasn't a hope? For this reason I can't understand the positivity spin the last few days are getting in the media.

devnull

No chance of this getting further down the road without the DUP.. They would need to pick 33 votes up from opposition.

Even with the 10 DUP it was going to be hard to get the 23 other votes they needed. Now no chance.

It's either no deal or a delay now.

Question is which side will regret voting against the deal afterward.

The high horse brigade

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but does this proposal not just kick a potential hard border down the road? Repeatedly?

Yep and it's a sectarian headcount every 4 years. It's a terrible suggestion. If Leo and Coveney back this then they've really shafted the people of the North once again

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

FG finally reverted to form

?

Joe_ Public

If dup couldn't support the may deal, I don't know how anybody figured they could get behind this deal. Can't see any bribe working this time either.

murphaph

devnull wrote: »

No chance of this getting further down the road without the DUP.. They would need to pick 33 votes up from opposition.

Even with the 10 DUP it was going to be hard to get the 23 other votes they needed. Now no chance.

It's either no deal or a delay now.

Question is which side will regret voting against the deal afterward.

It's more like 20 more they need if the DUP vote against, right? They need the 10 lost DUP votes and 10 more to counteract the DUP votes going to the other side. If the DUP just abstained they would need 10 more from Labour/Ind Cons but if the DUP vote against they need 20 just to stand still.

FrancieBrady

Why is Tommy Gorman saying 'there will be no deal concluded at the Summit' because of the DUP?

As far as other sources go, talks are continuing to find a deal and VAT is the stumbling block not consent. 'Consent' is done and dusted since last night.

Seems clear that if Boris can get an agreement on VAT he will take this 'concluded' deal back to the HoC and like May, try to throw the DUP under the bus.

Enzokk

fash wrote: »

Frankly I don't find that credible: it implies that Johnson has a conscience/is not a sociopath. Johnson only cares about Johnson- the idea that a few dead Irish would worry him is just not believable.

Explain the rush to get a deal, where he is specifically going for a deal he himself rejected and a deal that May herself said no PM would accept? I find any other explanation hard to come by.

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1184587354956337153?s=20


I get your point about him being out for himself, but if he brings back a deal that is in any way not a "clean break" then the Brexit Party will have a way to attack him. He has whipped up the no-deal talk so much anything else will be seen a capitulation and that will allow attack from the right. I cannot see how that is a good thing for him and if he is only out for himself how he is the winner in that case.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1184721379310166021?s=20

intellectual dosser

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why is Tommy Gorman saying 'there will be no deal concluded at the Summit' because of the DUP?

As far as other sources go, talks are continuing to find a deal and VAT is the stumbling block not consent. 'Consent' is done and dusted since last night.

Seems clear that if Boris can get an agreement on VAT he will take this 'concluded' deal back to the HoC and like May, try to throw the DUP under the bus.

I had gathered VAT still hadn't been ironed out but talks were progressing, it was expected it would have been done ahead of the summit.

Now the DUP are supposedly digging in on consent.

gooch2k9

All very useful going into an election. DUP blocking progress on Brexit so Boris needs a clear majority so as to be reliant on no one else. Makes people think twice about splitting the Brexit vote.

Joe_ Public

If you add total tories (incl rebels) you get 310 and opposition (lab, snp, LD, PC, IFC) you get 310 as well which would be 320 with dup. 13 other independents of which likely 7 at least vote against. So would not only need to keep all Tory rebels on board (unlikely) but also swing minimum 8 or 9 lab votes, not very likely really.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why is Tommy Gorman saying 'there will be no deal concluded at the Summit' because of the DUP?

As far as other sources go, talks are continuing to find a deal and VAT is the stumbling block not consent. 'Consent' is done and dusted since last night.

Seems clear that if Boris can get an agreement on VAT he will take this 'concluded' deal back to the HoC and like May, try to throw the DUP under the bus.

Votes are so tight in the HoC that he needs their votes. Plus some Brexiteers have said they will vote with the DUP.

intellectual dosser

Enzokk wrote: »

Explain the rush to get a deal, where he is specifically going for a deal he himself rejected and a deal that May herself said no PM would accept? I find any other explanation hard to come by.

I think Boris' biggest pledge is getting the UK out by Oct 31st.

A failure to deliver this would definitely be grounds for resignation (not that there hasn't been a few things simmering already)

Tippex

I know I posted this a few days ago but a little more on it the EU should tell the UK you need to stop this ****e and no more negotiations until there is an extension.

intellectual dosser

Tippex wrote: »

I know I posted this a few days ago but a little more on it the EU should tell the UK you need to stop this ****e and no more negotiations until there is an extension.

Brexit has hijacked the EU agenda for three years now. Obviously its very relevant to us in Ireland but if you're from a country not so intertwined with the UK it doesnt matter as much, at this stage they want it over.

lawred2

I take it Ben Lowry is a unionist hardliner!

Some tripe out of his mouth on newstalk right now.

FrancieBrady

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I had gathered VAT still hadn't been ironed out but talks were progressing, it was expected it would have been done ahead of the summit.

Now the DUP are supposedly digging in on consent.

But the problems with VAT are coming from the UK themselves not the DUP.

Consent is reported by everyone else as sorted to the satisfaction of all parties. The EU and the UK

Tommy once again is giving the DUP credit where none is due. They are not holding up the talks, they are not blocking a deal....talks are proceeding and a deal is possible.

intellectual dosser

FrancieBrady wrote: »

But the problems with VAT are coming from the UK themselves not the DUP.

Consent is reported by everyone else as sorted to the satisfaction of all parties. The EU and the UK

Tommy once again is giving the DUP credit where none is due. They are not holding up the talks, they are not blocking a deal....talks are proceeding and a deal is possible.

Maybe I've lost you, maybe I'm lost in general and maybe it depends who you believe but the BBC's Katya Adler (on Twitter) seems to think the DUP are stalled because of consent.

Enzokk

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I think Boris' biggest pledge is getting the UK out by Oct 31st.

A failure to deliver this would definitely be grounds for resignation (not that there hasn't been a few things simmering already)

That ship has sailed a long time ago. There will need to be a extension, whatever happens. I think that much is clear and he is probably hoping by getting a deal done and agreed by parliament would negate the damage a little of that extension. But his pronouncements will be hurting him on this with the Brexit Party.


As for the negotiations, this is a interesting thread.

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1184707928126869504?s=20

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1184707931708821510?s=20

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1184707937396314113?s=20

So the EU has moved on the immovable lines, where it was said they wouldn't move or compromise further. But this is a good thing as the EU isn't always right and in a negotiation there has to be give on both parties. If the EU was really this EU superstate it wouldn't have been able to move in the first place so this is actually a good thing, even if we don't get all that we wanted.

The main positives for the EU are,

It’s equally true that the EU has:
☑️Succeeded in protecting the open border in Ireland
☑️Remained united
☑️Showed small states they have considerable power through pooled sovereignty
☑️Stuck to its red lines on cherry picking

So while there will be some unhappiness on the ground we gave, there was always going to need to be some give and take to get a deal and in the end we wanted to avoid no-deal as much as possible.

Tippex

Dominic Grieve was just on sky and he was pretty damning in so far as there is no way Boris can get this through on Saturday as no-one has seen the legal text so how can they be expected to vote for it without time to review it?

Joe_ Public

Dup are not on board with consent as per their own statement. Tommie is wrong to say they can't conclude a deal without them, but reality remains they can still block it so in a way he has a point too. Very confusing really.

Tippex

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Brexit has hijacked the EU agenda for three years now. Obviously its very relevant to us in Ireland but if you're from a country not so intertwined with the UK it doesnt matter as much, at this stage they want it over.

Don’t get me wrong I don’t disagree but I also don’t believe the EU will torpedo the deal and force a no-deal so the UK will have to make the decision.

Russman

Just going back to Tony Connelly's tweet earlier, on the consent issue, can someone explain to me why a simple majority in Stormont is seen as bad for the DUP and cross community support is seen as good for the DUP ? I can't quite square that circle tbh !

If Boris can't get the deal through the HoC because of the DUP, I wonder just how damaged he will be if he fights an election based on "I had a deal done to get us out but those pesky Irish wouldn't allow it, give me a majority and we're good to go". I think he'd probably be ok - especially if you're a leaver but not a hard core headbanger like some of the Brexit Party, coupled with a Labour Party that doesn't know which way is up.

Tell me how

mickoneill31 wrote: »

The BrexitCast podcast is normally inane but todays is good. They've an expert on about Vat explaining the issues for vat, post Brexit.

It's a an old one so doesn't cover the current shenanigans.

Yeah, I thought it was a poor move to just fire out a 15 month old piece at this point in time even if it was discussing VAT which was the soup of the day yesterday.

Tony Connelly was tweeting a serious thread at 01:20 at night.

It did effectively show that the UK have managed to pivot towards accepting something they previously declined even though today the champagne seems to be in ice on that again for the moment.

prunudo

lawred2 wrote: »

I take it Ben Lowry is a unionist hardliner!

Some tripe out of his mouth on newstalk right now.

And unchallenged too. Why are the media here so afraid to call out unionist views or statements that they claim are fact. And the media in the UK aren't much better calling out bs from brexiteers either.

FrancieBrady

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Maybe I've lost you, maybe I'm lost in general and maybe it depends who you believe but the BBC's Katya Adler (on Twitter) seems to think the DUP are stalled because of consent.

Yes they are (the DUP) but the UK isn't. Talks are continuing to iron out the VAT issue and it seems (nobody has said otherwise) that a deal will be agreed if that is sorted and brought back to the HoC.

Gorman is simply wrong to say the talks won't be concluded because the DUP have kicked on consent.

FrancieBrady

lawred2 wrote: »

I take it Ben Lowry is a unionist hardliner!

Some tripe out of his mouth on newstalk right now.

He was on Nolan last night and came across as a DUP MP rather than a journalist/editor of a newspaper.

circadian

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Yep and it's a sectarian headcount every 4 years. It's a terrible suggestion. If Leo and Coveney back this then they've really shafted the people of the North once again

I wouldn't be so sure that it's a headcount. If anything, it weakens the position of the DUP massively. Moderate unionists and business owners/farmers are much less likely to vote them into office for fear of a hard border. The status quo or as close as possible is what the majority in NI want. I mean an overwhelming majority.

I have protestant relatives and friends in the North. Many are involved in farming and small business. The DUP are dead in the water as far they're concerned. They've burned bridges with many of their core support over trying to force a hard border, if it comes to a consentual vote, these people won't trust them again.

If this comes to pass the DUP will be electioneering based on fear and I suspect they'll only be ale to pull their votes mostly from working class protestants and a few hardliners. Other unionists who voted DUP as a means of solidifying the Unionist vote won't want to risk them putting up a hard border.

VinLieger

Some absolute loon on NT claiming that putting a border down the irish sea breaks the GFA, jesus NT stop letting people on your air who don't understand what they are talking about