Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

j8wk2feszrnpao

DUP will not back this deal, it's an Irish Sea border.
It'll be rejected in the UK Parliament, Boris to ask for an extension (weasel his words to ensure it's not a backtrack on his promise), election called, Boris to tell the country to back him to get this deal done, DUP no longer required in Government; Brexit done.
Corbyn a sham, gone after the election.

gooch2k9

Murmurs from Brussels that the EU are saying this is it. Only two options from now are no deal or this deal.


That will influence opinion in HoC.

Eric Cartman

Enzokk wrote: »

I laughed when it was mentioned that the EU needs to be careful that the UK doesn't become a tax haven and Boulton said his information is that the level playing field has been agreed. The response I believe from the German contributor (I believe) was priceless, "Why would you leave the EU then?"

Yeah, yesterday on twitter somebody was saying that the agreement specified level playing field rules and tax harmonisation to stop ‘singapore on thames’ and access to fishing territory , if theyre giving that up theres actually no point, those are 2 of the biggest elements of it.

I vote tax haven, its literally the only way for britain to come out of this profitable.

Tell me how

munstermagic11 wrote: »

DUP will not back this deal, it's an Irish Sea border.
It'll be rejected in the UK Parliament, Boris to ask for an extension (weasel his words to ensure it's not a backtrack on his promise), election called, Boris to tell the country to back him to get this deal done, DUP no longer required in Government; Brexit done.
Corbyn a sham, gone after the election.

To have Labour imploding over antisemitism during the most significant time in the UK's history since WW2 is something which consistently has to be considered as to just how bad they have been as cohesive party and him as a leader.

Akrasia

Nigel Farage will have a field day with this on his LBC show this evening. He will mobilise his brexiter hoards this evening to flood social media with soundbytes that include 'surrender' and 'sham' and 'breakup of the UK' etc etc

There is more than enough complexity and nuance in this agreement for the Brextremists to spin it any way they like.

I expect Farage to announce this evening that he will campaign against the Tories in the upcoming GE on the basis that this is not real brexit.

Dyr

jm08 wrote: »

If you are referring to the 'consent' part of the GFA being undermined, just heard Bertie Ahern say on Sean O'Rourke that this is not the case. The part about consent is to do with consent is the the only way there will be a United Ireland. This is not required by the GFA for divergence in Customs and VAT which is effectively what this is.

Bertie qualifies as both deluded and disingenuous

We're going to put the existence of one of the main principles of the Good Friday Agreement in the hands of Stormont and Stormont alone. Without requiring the consent of the British or Irish Governments or the people of Ireland, North and South, Stormont could put a hard border on this Island.

All on the basis of "Shur, what are the chances of it actually happening"

Beechwoodspark

So is boris resigned to losing the HOC vote? I mean, on face value, Arlene and co are saying no. So he can’t get it through.

What’s his motive?

Zubeneschamali

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Murmurs from Brussels that the EU are saying this is it. Only two options from now are no deal or this deal.

Well, no, the UK can revoke A50 and forget the whole mess any time they want.

And if Labour with SNP backing were to win an election (unlikely I think), I don't think the EU would really say no to negotiating a deal based on different red lines.

Remind me

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Murmurs from Brussels that the EU are saying this is it. Only two options from now are no deal or this deal.


That will influence opinion in HoC.

Pointless. This is a re-hashed original deal. The EU previously stated deal or no deal.

This will not get through commons. I would be sceptical of some deals done with DUP and that they might have done a deal to vote this down on Saturday.

Even someone like Boris knows this deal can’t be portrayed as a good one for him and that it is an old offer.

To me this is a waste of time and the situation is no different to a month ago.

Extension, get the UK to sort their sh*t out, if they return Boris at an election then no option but the deal to be passed.

RickBlaine

I wonder will someone on Saturday put forward an amendment to make the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum and force the PM to request an extension for that purpose.

I can see the EU agreeing to that, and I can also see the deal passing the HoC provided the decision goes back to the people.

AdamD

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So is boris resigned to losing the HOC vote? I mean, on face value, Arlene and co are saying no. So he can’t get it through.

What’s his motive?

Is it this black and white? Would it be that much of a shock for some of the opposition to vote in favour? Wouldn't have thought so tbh

ancapailldorcha

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So is boris resigned to losing the HOC vote? I mean, on face value, Arlene and co are saying no. So he can’t get it through.

What’s his motive?

If he can get it through, it means he can claim to have delivered Brexit and will give him an edge in a GE as the other parties won't be able to use the People's Vote to win over voters. As for the Brexit party, they'll just wither and die with their goal accomplished.

Hurrache

Coming in thick and fast against the DUP.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1184766242458161152
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1184767786020724736

devnull

Deal text published here:

Revised withdrawal agreement including protocol on Northern Ireland
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_withdrawal_agreement_including_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf

Happy reading

Kermit.de.frog

This is the general take across twitter on the deal from what I am seeing. The DUP have been essentially betrayed.

https://twitter.com/PeterRNeumann/status/1184776443605278721

It's understandable they won't accept it from their perspective.

LuckyLloyd

So much focus on the DUP. They have been given lengthy consideration and Johnson and the EU have decided to compromise without their assent. The DUP are now irrelevant.

As an ardent Republican who has become a huge fan of the EU as this process has developed I think this is a good deal for Ireland and the EU. Yes, we have redrawn the 2017 backstop slightly but compromise is the foundation of successful democratic politics. This deal retains the integrity of the common market; keeps border infrastructure off the island of Ireland and will only reintroduce such a border should it become the majority will of NI as expressed through functioning politics in the North.

We didn’t get all we wanted, but I say fair play to Varadkar, Coveney, Barnier et al for finding a landing zone for the UK. They have moved substantively and thrown the DUP under the bus to reach an agreement.

The EU comes across as a credible reasonable stable entity. The pressure is firmly on Brexiteers on either side of the commons. This may be your last chance at a hard Brexit, if that is what you want.

Larbre34

This is being orchestrated to tantilise the ERG. This is the very best deal one of their own can get, it is within touching distance and will they let the DUP stand in their way.

If I were Gammy Wilson I would stay well away from any bus lanes for a whileen.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is the general take across twitter on the deal from what I am seeing. The DUP have been essentially betrayed.

https://twitter.com/PeterRNeumann/status/1184776443605278721

It's understandable they won't accept it from their perspective.

It may be a sign that it's a good deal, because other's have said that it will forever leave NI as part of the UK.

ToBeFrank123

munstermagic11 wrote: »

DUP will not back this deal, it's an Irish Sea border.
It'll be rejected in the UK Parliament, Boris to ask for an extension (weasel his words to ensure it's not a backtrack on his promise), election called, Boris to tell the country to back him to get this deal done, DUP no longer required in Government; Brexit done.
Corbyn a sham, gone after the election.

At this stage probably the most likely outcome, but only if Labour allow an election and it would be madness for them to do so, given they are unlikely to do well, including in traditional Labour areas who voted leave. These voters will hold their nose while voting Conservative for this election.

Boris doesn't yet have the numbers in parliament for his deal to throw the DUP under the bus. All he needs them for is the deal and nothing else.

Adamcp898

Laura K finally being told to stop stirring the pot.....

Varta

VinLieger wrote: »

And if they are will the ERG as Bridgen claimed support them? This is faaaaaar from over

Bridgen can spout all he likes about supporting the DUP, but he will come under enormous pressure from his supporters to vote out of the EU. He may care about the DUP but his supporters couldn't give a toss.

mcmoustache

Did Johnson cause a load of fuss over the last few months just to accept a worse deal than May's WA?

ToBeFrank123

mcmoustache wrote: »

Did Johnson cause a load of fuss over the last few months just to accept a worse deal than May's WA?

Probably. Rees Mogg too.

Beechwoodspark

mcmoustache wrote: »

Did Johnson cause a load of fuss over the last few months just to accept a worse deal than May's WA?

He doesn’t care. He’s the PM now and that’s all that matters

devnull

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Laura K finally being told to stop stirring the pot.....

By who and when?

Enzokk

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

He doesn’t care. He’s the PM now and that’s all that matters

His problem now is this deal will be his to take into a new election. This will be it, he will have to fight a election not on unicorns but on what he has negotiated, which will contain enough ammunition for Farage and Labour I think. He is still in a corner, only he seems to have dumped the DUP and lost MP's to the Lib Dems as well so not going for an election is not possible as he doesn't have a majority.

He seems to have moved from one corner to another.

awec

If the UK rejects this deal then it has to be no deal.

I know no deal is costly for all concerned, but this absolute mess for the past 3+ years has a huge cost too and there has to be a line drawn.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

His problem now is this deal will be his to take into a new election. This will be it, he will have to fight a election not on unicorns but on what he has negotiated, which will contain enough ammunition for Farage and Labour I think. He is still in a corner, only he seems to have dumped the DUP and lost MP's to the Lib Dems as well so not going for an election is not possible as he doesn't have a majority.

He seems to have moved from one corner to another.

Surely the opposition should hold off on an election for as long as possible, and try and engineer a 2nd ref, as it will be the only way to get Brexit stopped.

[Well they could always pass a Revoke Art 50 motion if they have the numbers, but they think that would not be a good idea!]

Adamcp898

devnull wrote: »

By who and when?

Caught a sound of her asking Barnier just now "......is this the final deal the EU are prepared to offer?" should it not progress through the UK parliament. He began his response by saying to stop asking him to answer questions about hypothetical situations which have not occurred. All in a very cordial tone and he went on to elaborate more but the feeling was there.

Inquitus

awec wrote: »

If the UK rejects this deal then it has to be no deal.

I know no deal is costly for all concerned, but this absolute mess for the past 3+ years has a huge cost too and there has to be a line drawn.

If they reject this deal, the Benn Act comes into play and an extension must be requested.