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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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    #5822
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    conceeding on fishing territory, EU tax rules and anything that would restrict a 'singapore on thames' model betrays literally everything this is for. Won't pass tory muster at all. This is why VAT is the deadlock.


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    #5823
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users Posts: 81,276 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    Bambi wrote: »
    Anyone who's bewailed the lunacy of the last three years in the House of Commons and also thinks that its a good idea to give the circus at stormont the ability to torpedo the customs arrangement and GFA every four years is suffering from nuclear grade cognitive dissonance.


    No multinational will want to invest a cent up north where every 4 years their business model could be turned on its head.


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    #5824
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Bambi wrote: »
    Anyone who's bewailed the lunacy of the last three years in the House of Commons and also thinks that its a good idea to give the circus at stormont the ability to torpedo the customs arrangement and GFA every four years is suffering from nuclear grade cognitive dissonance.
    You can also see the point of giving a vote to a deliberative assembly which is neither deliberating nor even assembling.


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    #5825
    Junkyard Tom
    Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    The entire thing being decided by a political party of primarily Free Presbyterian 'nut cases' which are consulting with unionist terrorist gangs.


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    #5826
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,994 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Any word out of Scotland on all this?


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    #5827
    Duane Dibbley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 418 ✭✭Duane Dibbley


    Stormont Assembly to vote whether rebranded backstop applies by simple majority of those present in chamber. First vote scheduled 4 years after entry into force.

    can someone Explain this to me. Does there not need to be a certain number of people in attendance for a vote to take place?


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    #5828
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,889 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Honestly everything was going fine wasn't it? Until someone decided that UKIP might usurp things in time. Eu via Cameron was approached to see if it would change things to suit UK, non.

    And then there was Brexit. Just a short summary!

    And so here we are.


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    #5829
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    I think the unionist parties might be out of step with their voters on this one. All the polls suggest that the electorate are much more in favour of remaining aligned with the EU than with Britain post brexit.

    Don't think there's been a poll asking unionists how they'd feel about having to accept staying in the EU's customs orbit while the rest of the UK deviates. I'd expect such a poll to result in an overwhelmingly negative response. Obvious where the DUP will be on this and I can't see the UUP going the other way.

    And there has been talk in the past of so-called 'unionist unity', the idea that there should be a single unionist party to stand up for the union. I hear calls for this quite often from unionists around election time. I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that the two largest unionist parties could merge in the near future, when threatened with a UK that's diverging economically, the problem of Scottish independence rearing its head, increased calls for a border poll etc. A single unionist party might be able to get to an overall majority within Stormont in itself, if the nationalist/alliance vote splits in some areas.

    There may be issues with this that have not been taken into account. Look at the Petition of Concern with the GFA. It was devised to act as a bulwark against one side being able to run roughshod over the other - it ended up being used as a veto over social issues like equal marriage. I'd be wary of giving these unionist parties the potential to do us all damage.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



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    #5830
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Here's a nice man in a balaclava giving his thoughts on border policy.

    Full 11-minute report is here.

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1184529443471142913


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    #5831
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,994 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well, the TUV are against it anyhow.


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    #5832
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,551 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Enzokk wrote: »
    I think Corbyn should call for a VONC once Johnson has asked for one and gotten his deal passed. It could then be a Labour policy for a confirmation referendum while the Tories will be hit by the Brexit Party for the lie that he would leave the EU by the 31st October and that the deal isn't hard enough as well.

    I must be misunderstanding this - it sounded like you're saying that Corbyn should want a confirmatory ref on a deal already agreed by the HoC and the EU 27?

    If that's correct, then there'd be no need. A deal would take the wind out of everything, Brexit party, Labour and all. Brexit is nearing exhaustion, and the BP/UKIP will wither into irrelevance if and when this deal is passed. England will be out of the CU and SM, and that'll be more than enough for Brexiteers.


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    #5833
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,138 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Sturgeon was very clear on her position yesterday. Second Indy Ref in 2020.


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    #5834
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Water John wrote: »
    Sturgeon was very clear on her position yesterday. Second Indy Ref in 2020.
    Sturgeon has also said that she'll only call a second referendum when she's sure of winning it - if memory serves, that means a sustained, plausible majority of 60% in favour versus 40% against according to multiple opinion polls.


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    #5835
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,889 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Whatever happens, a full on NO DEAL crash out will not happen now I think. Well hopefully anyway.

    There appears to be a lot of meetings, fudge and payoffs to avoid such a scenario now, and analyses of such things is moot. The UK do not want to leave with NO DEAL do they?

    DUP will get a few billion (NHS can wait) and all will be well. Tail wagging the dog of course.

    May you live in interesting times.


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    #5836
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,138 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The 60:40 is you're measure, not an objective one.
    It does need to shift more than it is but it is creeping there. Brexit being passed will give it a major boost.


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    #5837
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Strazdas wrote: »
    [...] Johnson, Cummings and the Brexiteers are a bunch of chancers who can barely be trusted.
    Replace "barely" with "not":

    https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1184542102308511744


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    #5838
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,485 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    robindch wrote: »
    Here's a nice man in a balaclava giving his thoughts on border policy.

    Full 11-minute report is here.

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1184529443471142913

    What's his thoughts on how the EU VAT regime should operate in the north?

    That's what I really want to know.


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    #5839
    Duane Dibbley
    Closed Accounts Posts: 418 ✭✭Duane Dibbley


    robindch wrote: »
    Sturgeon has also said that she'll only call a second referendum when she's sure of winning it - if memory serves, that means a sustained, plausible majority of 60% in favour versus 40% against according to multiple opinion polls.

    She won’t be given consent to have an Independent Referendum.

    I think the SNP are the most disrespected party in Westminster.


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    #5840
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    The UK do not want to leave with NO DEAL do they?
    Byline Times suggests that the people who backed the Leave campaign, who also backed Johnson, have placed multi-billion pound bets on Sterling taking a hit if the UK leaves the EU - the bigger the hit, the bigger the payoff, and the biggest hit of all will result from a disorderly exit.

    https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/


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    #5841
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    What's his thoughts on how the EU VAT regime should operate in the north?
    I'd imagine he wants a different regime as VAT differences can lead to handsome criminal profits.


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    #5842
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,569 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    briany wrote: »
    I must be misunderstanding this - it sounded like you're saying that Corbyn should want a confirmatory ref on a deal already agreed by the HoC and the EU 27?

    If that's correct, then there'd be no need. A deal would take the wind out of everything, Brexit party, Labour and all. Brexit is nearing exhaustion, and the BP/UKIP will wither into irrelevance if and when this deal is passed. England will be out of the CU and SM, and that'll be more than enough for Brexiteers.


    There will need to be an extension to get the legislation passed for the deal to come into effect. In that time the UK would not have left and the chance is there to have an election before they legally leave the EU. Johnson would have broken one of his central promises that they would have left by the 31st October, deal or no deal.

    As for the Brexit Party, you know the problem Johnson has is his pronouncements on no-deal the past 3 months have convinced voters that leaving without a deal will be okay. The Brexit Party can take this vote from the Tories as their only policy would be exactly that, we will have a "clean Brexit" which people have swallowed up already. Take into account that the details of the deal would have been scrutinized and Johnson's own words will be played back to him about how bad a deal it was when May proposed it.

    All of my assumptions are based on Johnson getting a deal passed in the HoC. In that case Labour is in deeper trouble than they are now, this is one way I think they can win some of the votes back. It's the Cameron strategy of 2015, where only a Tory vote would get a Brexit referendum. In this case a possible revoke can only happen with a Labour majority or coalition with the Lib Dems. At the very least it would concentrate the Remainers to get a strategy out to stop Johnson getting a majority.


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    #5843
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Enzokk wrote: »
    AFAIR the only party in NI that seemed to be in favour of Brexit and wanted to leave the EU single market and customs union was the DUP. The rest all campaigned for Remain and you would think they would see sense in having things going well to keep the status quo. This is why the DUP campaigning for Brexit is so baffling, as long as things are relatively stable for people in NI then unification is not happening, but they decided to throw a hand grenade in that which if it goes wrong increases the risk of unification.

    So in that event the DUP has 28 seats out of 90 so the path to vote to reject the EU customs union has a long way to go if you factor that in. That is not even looking at how the country voted in the referendum either.

    There's also a potential psychological element where the parties, politicans and public get conditioned to voting to maintain the close relationship with Ireland. If you're doing that every four years, might just as well vote for a UI at one point and get it over with, remove all the admin and stress of it.

    I'm not convinced everything is as it seems right now though, and there must be more to it. These reports are surprisingly convoluted, if simple.


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    #5844
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 16,992 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    robindch wrote: »
    Sturgeon has also said that she'll only call a second referendum when she's sure of winning it - if memory serves, that means a sustained, plausible majority of 60% in favour versus 40% against according to multiple opinion polls.

    The UK Government, Westminster and the Scottish unionist parities (Tory, Lib Dem & Labour) have consistently stated they will ignore any mandate that exists for calling a second independence referendum and they will not allow one to happen.It is akin to the Catalonia situation except that there is doubt if Westminster consent is actually needed


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    #5845
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,569 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Whatever happens, a full on NO DEAL crash out will not happen now I think. Well hopefully anyway.

    There appears to be a lot of meetings, fudge and payoffs to avoid such a scenario now, and analyses of such things is moot. The UK do not want to leave with NO DEAL do they?

    DUP will get a few billion (NHS can wait) and all will be well. Tail wagging the dog of course.

    May you live in interesting times.


    It seems James O'Brien may be right, Johnson has looked over the edge of no-deal and like May before him he has read, or been read, the reports on security and the very real chance of people losing their lives due to Brexit. He has decided he cannot and will not do that and has gone for the option most likely to pass through parliament.


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    #5846
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    This is the kind of thing I was afraid of. Here is the BBC's Adam Fleming on the consent idea being floated:
    An official suggested that the DUP could benefit from using the simple majority method whereas the nationalist community could ensure there was no change to Northern Ireland's status by withdrawing from the Assembly so that no vote could be taken.

    So they acknowledge there is a chance the unionists could get their way via a simple majority method and to stop it nationalists would have to hope SF bring down the Executive again - that will really go down well with the unionist community and improve relations!

    They're basically sacrificing the potential for NI to ever have good cross-community relations.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



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    #5847
    maebee
    Registered Users Posts: 1,680 ✭✭✭maebee


    or some American woman being witch-hunted by a grieving family

    Off topic but way out of line Celtic R


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    #5848
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,060 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Honestly everything was going fine wasn't it? Until someone decided that UKIP might usurp things in time. Eu via Cameron was approached to see if it would change things to suit UK, non.

    And then there was Brexit. Just a short summary!

    And so here we are.

    Nobody was looking for a referendum in 2015, not even UKIP.

    Cameron held the thing as a cheap and cynical political stunt.


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    #5849
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,889 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    UK is bonkers. Sorry for being so idiotic in saying that, but honestly looking at the shenanigans of the last nearly four years, I could in fairness be forgiven for thinking that there was no rational thinking about this at all.

    Hubris got them to this pass, and there they are now.


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    #5850
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,569 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    There's also a potential psychological element where the parties, politicans and public get conditioned to voting to maintain the close relationship with Ireland. If you're doing that every four years, might just as well vote for a UI at one point and get it over with, remove all the admin and stress of it.

    I'm not convinced everything is as it seems right now though, and there must be more to it. These reports are surprisingly convoluted, if simple.


    True, I didn't think of a vote for a close relationship in that way before. I agree that there is still a lot of details to sort and a lot of ways it could be rejected by various parties. If Johnson is looking for a deal he will make the compromises he has to, if not this will all be a time wasting exercise on the way to no-deal. I doubt anyone still knows or has figured out the plan.


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    #5851
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Dominic Lawson on newsnight earlier suggesting the "people" would burn down parliament if brexit was delayed again. Nobody skipped a beat. Sign of where we've got to with all this, I guess.


This discussion has been closed.
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