Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Atlantic Dawn · 16-10-2019 09:56PM

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Any current affairs show on tonight covering Brexit?

Channel 5 have a live debate from 9pm
Pat Kenny on Virgin Media 1 at 10pm having a debate on it.

Nolan Live on BBC1NIRL at 10.40pm likely to be covering it.

Strazdas · 16-10-2019 09:58PM

Indestructable wrote: »

Not a fan of that, at all. Rather they would head off with no deal. They'd be back soon enough.

I don't think Johnson is acting in good faith or is particularly serious about a deal. It looks suspiciously like manoeuvring and him telling the EU any old guff to get them to sign off on something......you couldn't trust the guy as far as you could throw him.

Spanish Eyes · 16-10-2019 10:01PM

lola85 wrote: »

Timmy Dooley tried it and was put back in his box quickly.

So everyone else is in favour now? Fair try by TDooley. Who challenged him to get back in his box?

We are truly FKD in this country now if we do the capitulation thing. We have tried our hardest to be diplomatic and fair. But it would always come down to Westminster in the end. Boak.

How many billions are they going to give us lol.

Mr.Nice Guy · 16-10-2019 10:03PM

Early NI business community reaction not positive:

https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1184559228641513472

Dyr · 16-10-2019 10:06PM

Essentially an opportunity to f**k over the GFA ever four years

Itssoeasy · 16-10-2019 10:07PM

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Any current affairs show on tonight covering Brexit?

Late debate on rte radio 1 and virgin media are doing something at ten pm but I'm not watching it.

Enzokk · 16-10-2019 10:08PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

That consent principle idea will likely be a big can of worms.

We've often seen unionist parties in Stormont engaging in pacts as a way of ensuring seats for themselves. What if such a pact was arranged by them as a way to stay within the UK's customs orbit? Not hard to imagine, given the seriousness with which all unionists have reacted to the so-called border down the sea.

I just looked up the results of the most recent Stormont assembly election in 2017 and adding up the unionist seats overall you get 40/90. And that was an election where they did poorly.

Any future election is going to have unionist parties likely pledging to do whatever they can to get back within the UK's customs sphere in full. The magic number for an overall majority is 46 seats. If they get to that number, what then? They'd have the EU and our government by the balls. Might Sinn Fein in such a scenario bring down Stormont, thus leading to the proposed arrangements staying in place? Imagine the fury that would cause within unionism.

Just looks a recipe for endless suspicion, bitterness and hostility to me. It would cement the tribal divisions for generations to come. It doesn't surprise me that the UK government would sign up to this as they don't give a damn about this island, but I'd be very surprised if our government is okay with this.

Tony retweeted it.

AFAIR the only party in NI that seemed to be in favour of Brexit and wanted to leave the EU single market and customs union was the DUP. The rest all campaigned for Remain and you would think they would see sense in having things going well to keep the status quo. This is why the DUP campaigning for Brexit is so baffling, as long as things are relatively stable for people in NI then unification is not happening, but they decided to throw a hand grenade in that which if it goes wrong increases the risk of unification.

So in that event the DUP has 28 seats out of 90 so the path to vote to reject the EU customs union has a long way to go if you factor that in. That is not even looking at how the country voted in the referendum either.

Spanish Eyes · 16-10-2019 10:10PM

I would respectfully suggest that if REVOKE happened, there would be little blowback now. Maybe a few gatherings and so on, but that happens all the time.

So it is all a Tory Party Protectionist thing is it?

Water John · 16-10-2019 10:13PM

Enzokk, thanks for the numbers. DUP have less than 30% of votes in the NI Assembly. The vote is simply a 'new suit of clothes for the king'.
Wouldn't get excited about it. It's a pretend you're giving something.

geezerbutler · 16-10-2019 10:15PM

Long time lurker her - would like to thank everyone who posts here - I learned more from following this forum than watching the news. One question -- if the 4 year consent does apply would it have the positive effect of shifting parties towards the middle ie Nationals might vote for SDLP and unioninst might vote for UUP (or other parties that would not vote to withdraw consent).

Mr.Nice Guy · 16-10-2019 10:17PM

Enzokk wrote: »

AFAIR the only party in NI that seemed to be in favour of Brexit and wanted to leave the EU single market and customs union was the DUP. The rest all campaigned for Remain and you would think they would see sense in having things going well to keep the status quo. This is why the DUP campaigning for Brexit is so baffling, as long as things are relatively stable for people in NI then unification is not happening, but they decided to throw a hand grenade in that which if it goes wrong increases the risk of unification.

So in that event the DUP has 28 seats out of 90 so the path to vote to reject the EU customs union has a long way to go if you factor that in. That is not even looking at how the country voted in the referendum either.

It's true that under Nesbitt the UUP were for Remain but it was not a position they pushed strongly by any means. And since Swann took over as leader they have not indicated support for Remain - they are of the view that Brexit needs to happen. The UUP have also been scathing about the DUP in regard to the border in the sea idea. This is the man tipped to be their new leader:

https://twitter.com/uuponline/status/1181235773531660288

They will likely have 40 seats as a minimum on the customs issue if Stormont returns.

CelticRambler · 16-10-2019 10:27PM

geezerbutler wrote: »

if the 4 year consent does apply would it have the positive effect of shifting parties towards the middle ie Nationals might vote for SDLP and unioninst might vote for UUP (or other parties that would not vote to withdraw consent).

Unlikely, because ...

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

They will likely have 40 seats as a minimum on the customs issue if Stormont returns.

... every future Stormont election will become a proxy Leave/Remain referendum - the same as the next UK GE if they don't have a proper referendum/people's vote beforehand. It'll be all to easy for one side or the other to blame the inevitable economic hardship suffered by NI on the "other side" hobbling what should have been a great deal, and that'll only reinforce hard-line positions - exactly the same as in GB.

Enzokk · 16-10-2019 10:28PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It's true that under Nesbitt the UUP were for Remain but it was not a position they pushed strongly by any means. And since Swann took over as leader they have not indicated support for Remain - they are of the view that Brexit needs to happen. The UUP have also been scathing about the DUP in regard to the border in the sea idea. This is the man tipped to be their new leader:

https://twitter.com/uuponline/status/1181235773531660288

They will likely have 40 seats as a minimum on the customs issue if Stormont returns.

The DUP has not endorsed a Irish Sea border and we don't know if they are up for it if it is in the new deal now. So if they have been scathing to the DUP on Brexit it would be their current stance of no Irish Sea border. So I don't see how they could have been scathing to the DUP for an idea that has only come up today as having possible DUP support.

But I am sure as anything in politics the positions of parties will be fluid, but we have to remember what would be better for the NI economy and it is clear that everyone has been warning of the risks of a land border and how it will ruin the economy. So those parties going directly against their voters in 5 years time to vote for a land border is unlikely. That said I also thought Trump winning was unlikely so never say never I suppose.

devnull · 16-10-2019 10:30PM

Louise Ellman has resigned from Labour to become an independent, stating that she cannot back Jeremy Corbyn to become Prime Minister as she does not believe in him.

Can never remember a year in UK Politics where there have been so many people leaving political parties. Must be a record by quite some distance and we've probably got more to come yet.

Eric Cartman · 16-10-2019 10:31PM

devnull wrote: »

Louise Ellman has resigned from Labour to become an independent, stating that she cannot back Jeremy Corbyn to become Prime Minister as she does not believe in him.

Can never remember a year in UK Politics where there have been so many people leaving political parties. Must be a record by quite some distance and we've probably got more to come yet.

to be fair she is right, Corbyn has completely thrown the blinkers on when it comes to anti-semitism.

Mr.Nice Guy · 16-10-2019 10:34PM

Enzokk wrote: »

The DUP has not endorsed a Irish Sea border and we don't know if they are up for it if it is in the new deal now. So if they have been scathing to the DUP on Brexit it would be their current stance of no Irish Sea border. So I don't see how they could have been scathing to the DUP for an idea that has only come up today as having possible DUP support.

But I am sure as anything in politics the positions of parties will be fluid, but we have to remember what would be better for the NI economy and it is clear that everyone has been warning of the risks of a land border and how it will ruin the economy. So those parties going directly against their voters in 5 years time to vote for a land border is unlikely. That said I also thought Trump winning was unlikely so never say never I suppose.

I listen to the BBC NI radio shows daily and the UUP and TUV have been making it very clear where their loyalties lie on the idea of a customs border down the sea. Even fairly moderate figures like Doug Beattie have been scathing about the idea. For them it's really not about economics; it's about identity and their sense of Britishness feeling threatened. That will trump all of the economic factors imo; after all, if they were concerned about the economy then they would be calling for a second referendum right now, which is not their position.

I think if our government's position is to hope that unionist parties are going to put practical concerns above fleg-waving and identity politics then we're asking for trouble.

Hurrache · 16-10-2019 10:36PM

I do think that claims of Irish capitulation are extreme. Every 4 years is disruptive, but the trend in demographics I believe indicate there won't be a unionist majority to take NI out of the agreement.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-10-2019 10:37PM

For economic reasons alone I never see them leaving the arrangements.

Eric Cartman · 16-10-2019 10:38PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

For economic reasons alone I never see them leaving the arrangements.

its a way for unionists to say 'here listen voters, we tried, god save the queen and all that' without having to admit that even they know they need the border open and southerners appeased. It can be their 'eternal struggle' like a united ireland is ours, a struggle for the heart that the head knows is completely unworkable.

prawnsambo · 16-10-2019 10:41PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I listen to the BBC NI radio shows daily and the UUP and TUV have been making it very clear where their loyalties lie on the idea of a customs border down the sea. Even fairly moderate figures like Doug Beattie have been scathing about the idea. For them it's really not about economics; it's about identity and their sense of Britishness feeling threatened. That will trump all of the economic factors imo; after all, if they were concerned about the economy then they would be calling for a second referendum right now, which is not their position.

I think if our government's position is to hope that unionist parties are going to put practical concerns above fleg-waving and identity politics then we're asking for trouble.

I think the unionist parties might be out of step with their voters on this one. All the polls suggest that the electorate are much more in favour of remaining aligned with the EU than with Britain post brexit.

Enzokk · 16-10-2019 10:42PM

This seems to be new information about what is in the deal and what still needs to be sorted,

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184571427976028161?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184571849465892864?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184572290316587008?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184573047514259457?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184573515497955331?s=20

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184574115287572481?s=20

So the UK has made some big concessions which in a logical world would mean the deal doesn't pass in the HoC. Firstly they have kept the level playing field for standards and workers rights to get a favourable trade deal. This will mean some Labour MPs would lean to vote for the deal.

Then the second concession is the NI only backstop which May ruled out. But it is not a NI only backstop as it will have a different name (how is that fidge tasting?). Then the third concession is Unionist consent in NI to just a majority. As we have been discussing it Stormont will have a vote to keep it going. They can vote against this but will have a 2 year cooling off period and any cost will be for NI. I guess the 2 year period is to see how the markets react if they vote for it and for them to then possibly vote again to reverse their decision.

The problem area seems to be VAT. If they can find a solution for that there may be a deal, but time is running out. It does seem like there will be a extension though. If there is I think Corbyn should call for a VONC once Johnson has asked for one and gotten his deal passed. It could then be a Labour policy for a confirmation referendum while the Tories will be hit by the Brexit Party for the lie that he would leave the EU by the 31st October and that the deal isn't hard enough as well.

Dyr · 16-10-2019 10:46PM

Anyone who's bewailed the lunacy of the last three years in the House of Commons and also thinks that its a good idea to give the circus at stormont the ability to torpedo the customs arrangement and GFA every four years is suffering from nuclear grade cognitive dissonance.

Eric Cartman · 16-10-2019 10:48PM

conceeding on fishing territory, EU tax rules and anything that would restrict a 'singapore on thames' model betrays literally everything this is for. Won't pass tory muster at all. This is why VAT is the deadlock.

Atlantic Dawn · 16-10-2019 10:48PM

Bambi wrote: »

Anyone who's bewailed the lunacy of the last three years in the House of Commons and also thinks that its a good idea to give the circus at stormont the ability to torpedo the customs arrangement and GFA every four years is suffering from nuclear grade cognitive dissonance.

No multinational will want to invest a cent up north where every 4 years their business model could be turned on its head.

robindch · 16-10-2019 10:50PM

Bambi wrote: »

Anyone who's bewailed the lunacy of the last three years in the House of Commons and also thinks that its a good idea to give the circus at stormont the ability to torpedo the customs arrangement and GFA every four years is suffering from nuclear grade cognitive dissonance.

You can also see the point of giving a vote to a deliberative assembly which is neither deliberating nor even assembling.

Junkyard Tom · 16-10-2019 10:50PM

The entire thing being decided by a political party of primarily Free Presbyterian 'nut cases' which are consulting with unionist terrorist gangs.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2019 10:52PM

Any word out of Scotland on all this?

Duane Dibbley · 16-10-2019 10:53PM

Stormont Assembly to vote whether rebranded backstop applies by simple majority of those present in chamber. First vote scheduled 4 years after entry into force.

can someone Explain this to me. Does there not need to be a certain number of people in attendance for a vote to take place?

Spanish Eyes · 16-10-2019 10:54PM

Honestly everything was going fine wasn't it? Until someone decided that UKIP might usurp things in time. Eu via Cameron was approached to see if it would change things to suit UK, non.

And then there was Brexit. Just a short summary!

And so here we are.

Mr.Nice Guy · 16-10-2019 10:54PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think the unionist parties might be out of step with their voters on this one. All the polls suggest that the electorate are much more in favour of remaining aligned with the EU than with Britain post brexit.

Don't think there's been a poll asking unionists how they'd feel about having to accept staying in the EU's customs orbit while the rest of the UK deviates. I'd expect such a poll to result in an overwhelmingly negative response. Obvious where the DUP will be on this and I can't see the UUP going the other way.

And there has been talk in the past of so-called 'unionist unity', the idea that there should be a single unionist party to stand up for the union. I hear calls for this quite often from unionists around election time. I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that the two largest unionist parties could merge in the near future, when threatened with a UK that's diverging economically, the problem of Scottish independence rearing its head, increased calls for a border poll etc. A single unionist party might be able to get to an overall majority within Stormont in itself, if the nationalist/alliance vote splits in some areas.

There may be issues with this that have not been taken into account. Look at the Petition of Concern with the GFA. It was devised to act as a bulwark against one side being able to run roughshod over the other - it ended up being used as a veto over social issues like equal marriage. I'd be wary of giving these unionist parties the potential to do us all damage.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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