TCDStudent1 wrote: » Any current affairs show on tonight covering Brexit?
Indestructable wrote: » Not a fan of that, at all. Rather they would head off with no deal. They'd be back soon enough.
lola85 wrote: » Timmy Dooley tried it and was put back in his box quickly.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » That consent principle idea will likely be a big can of worms. We've often seen unionist parties in Stormont engaging in pacts as a way of ensuring seats for themselves. What if such a pact was arranged by them as a way to stay within the UK's customs orbit? Not hard to imagine, given the seriousness with which all unionists have reacted to the so-called border down the sea. I just looked up the results of the most recent Stormont assembly election in 2017 and adding up the unionist seats overall you get 40/90. And that was an election where they did poorly. Any future election is going to have unionist parties likely pledging to do whatever they can to get back within the UK's customs sphere in full. The magic number for an overall majority is 46 seats. If they get to that number, what then? They'd have the EU and our government by the balls. Might Sinn Fein in such a scenario bring down Stormont, thus leading to the proposed arrangements staying in place? Imagine the fury that would cause within unionism. Just looks a recipe for endless suspicion, bitterness and hostility to me. It would cement the tribal divisions for generations to come. It doesn't surprise me that the UK government would sign up to this as they don't give a damn about this island, but I'd be very surprised if our government is okay with this. Tony retweeted it.
Enzokk wrote: » AFAIR the only party in NI that seemed to be in favour of Brexit and wanted to leave the EU single market and customs union was the DUP. The rest all campaigned for Remain and you would think they would see sense in having things going well to keep the status quo. This is why the DUP campaigning for Brexit is so baffling, as long as things are relatively stable for people in NI then unification is not happening, but they decided to throw a hand grenade in that which if it goes wrong increases the risk of unification. So in that event the DUP has 28 seats out of 90 so the path to vote to reject the EU customs union has a long way to go if you factor that in. That is not even looking at how the country voted in the referendum either.
geezerbutler wrote: » if the 4 year consent does apply would it have the positive effect of shifting parties towards the middle ie Nationals might vote for SDLP and unioninst might vote for UUP (or other parties that would not vote to withdraw consent).
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » They will likely have 40 seats as a minimum on the customs issue if Stormont returns.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » It's true that under Nesbitt the UUP were for Remain but it was not a position they pushed strongly by any means. And since Swann took over as leader they have not indicated support for Remain - they are of the view that Brexit needs to happen. The UUP have also been scathing about the DUP in regard to the border in the sea idea. This is the man tipped to be their new leader:https://twitter.com/uuponline/status/1181235773531660288 They will likely have 40 seats as a minimum on the customs issue if Stormont returns.
devnull wrote: » Louise Ellman has resigned from Labour to become an independent, stating that she cannot back Jeremy Corbyn to become Prime Minister as she does not believe in him. Can never remember a year in UK Politics where there have been so many people leaving political parties. Must be a record by quite some distance and we've probably got more to come yet.
Enzokk wrote: » The DUP has not endorsed a Irish Sea border and we don't know if they are up for it if it is in the new deal now. So if they have been scathing to the DUP on Brexit it would be their current stance of no Irish Sea border. So I don't see how they could have been scathing to the DUP for an idea that has only come up today as having possible DUP support. But I am sure as anything in politics the positions of parties will be fluid, but we have to remember what would be better for the NI economy and it is clear that everyone has been warning of the risks of a land border and how it will ruin the economy. So those parties going directly against their voters in 5 years time to vote for a land border is unlikely. That said I also thought Trump winning was unlikely so never say never I suppose.
Kermit.de.frog wrote: » For economic reasons alone I never see them leaving the arrangements.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » I listen to the BBC NI radio shows daily and the UUP and TUV have been making it very clear where their loyalties lie on the idea of a customs border down the sea. Even fairly moderate figures like Doug Beattie have been scathing about the idea. For them it's really not about economics; it's about identity and their sense of Britishness feeling threatened. That will trump all of the economic factors imo; after all, if they were concerned about the economy then they would be calling for a second referendum right now, which is not their position. I think if our government's position is to hope that unionist parties are going to put practical concerns above fleg-waving and identity politics then we're asking for trouble.
Bambi wrote: » Anyone who's bewailed the lunacy of the last three years in the House of Commons and also thinks that its a good idea to give the circus at stormont the ability to torpedo the customs arrangement and GFA every four years is suffering from nuclear grade cognitive dissonance.
prawnsambo wrote: » I think the unionist parties might be out of step with their voters on this one. All the polls suggest that the electorate are much more in favour of remaining aligned with the EU than with Britain post brexit.
