Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo · 16-08-2019 4:00pm

listermint wrote: »

I think the best idea is for you to present reasoned based arguments backed up by current factual information.

So far today its been one or two liners of what can only be considered as 'The Sun' newspaper hotspots from the mid '90s

I've yet to see that poster post something that's objectively correct. Even Piers Morgan is right more times*.

*This may be an exaggeration, but one is bigger than zero, so I'll stick with it.

brickster69 · 16-08-2019 4:01pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

If you're picking a number to start from, why not 15.1%? Because that's the most recent figure. You'll find you'll get to zero quicker.

So do it that way. what do you come up with. how many Countries ?

Strazdas · 16-08-2019 4:02pm

brickster69 wrote: »

I think the best idea is to start at 16%

Then start deducting 0.1% for Malta, Estonia & Cyprus Etc. till you come to zero

Don't your arguments about the size of EU states debunk the ideas about net contributors and beneficiaries btw? The Brexit press complains bitterly and angrily about the EU membership fee but the net contributors are a huge swathe of the EU population ; the population of UK, Fra, Ger, Ita and NL alone is 300m people

Most of the net beneficiaries are countries with small populations

Cina · 16-08-2019 4:02pm

brickster69 wrote: »

No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

The EU already trades with the rest of the world, and is in the process of getting more trade agreements that take decades, the UK wouldn't even be able to get them themselves if they went outside of the EU.

The Uk on it's own won't get any better than this, or in any way as good as this. In fact, they'll get **** all, because no country will choose a trade agreement with the UK over the EU, if they have to.

EU_FTAs.svg?download

EU Free trade agreements - BLUE
Agreement in force - GREEN
Agreement (in part) provisionally applied - LIGHT GREEN
Agreement signed, but not applied - ORANGE
Agreement initialed, not signed - PINK
Agreement being negotiated - YELLOW

Dytalus · 16-08-2019 4:04pm

brickster69 wrote: »

I think the best idea is to start at 16%

Then start deducting 0.1% for Malta, Estonia & Cyprus Etc. till you come to zero

Why on Earth would you ever do it that way?

For the record, you get through 19 nations using your (outdated) chart which reduces you to 0.4, before the last one (Belgium) brings you to -2.4.

Which still shows that your initial assertion was inaccurate. The lowest 20 nations by GDP % of the EU still account for more than the UK's 16%. Using my updated (2018) figures (which since I went to 2 decimal places are a teeny bit more accurate), you get to 18 nations before reaching 1.14. The 19th lowest nation nation brings you to -1.29. The 20th lowest nation brings you to -4.13.

Which, again, disproves your 20 lowest contributors contribute less than the UK. Even with your ridiculously unorthodox way of figuring it out.

brickster69 · 16-08-2019 4:05pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Don't your arguments about the size of EU states debunk the ideas about net contributors and beneficiaries btw? The Brexit press complains bitterly and angrily about the EU membership fee but the net contributors are a huge swathe of the EU population ; the population of UK, Fra, Ger, Ita and NL alone is 300m people

Most of the net beneficiaries are countries with small populations

No, i am talking about by losing one country which is the equivalent in size to 19 put together. Obviously this weakens the EU in a massive way considering it has such a huge trade deficit.

Dytalus · 16-08-2019 4:08pm

brickster69 wrote: »

No, i am talking about by losing one country which is the equivalent in size to 19 put together. Obviously this weakens the EU in a massive way considering it has such a huge trade deficit.

Stop saying "equivalent in size". It's not, and it's not even close.

What you mean to say is "equivalent in contributions". And while yes, it does weaken the EU, the UK gets a hell of a lot more weakened from being cut out. Germany alone outdoes the UK in GDP, Population, and GDP per capita if you want to go by the comparison argument.

brickster69 · 16-08-2019 4:09pm

You can take it like this weeks numbers on EU economies. The small countries who do not contribute anything had good figures / GDP. Germany contracted which knocked the whole of the EU's GDP figures to halve from 0.4% to 0.2% despite only contracting by 1%.

Strazdas · 16-08-2019 4:10pm

brickster69 wrote: »

No, i am talking about by losing one country which is the equivalent in size to 19 put together. Obviously this weakens the EU in a massive way considering it has such a huge trade deficit.

I would say it is manageable - France, Germany and Italy alone have over 200 million people. UK leaving is a dent but not a disastrous one.

Calina · 16-08-2019 4:12pm

brickster69 wrote: »

No, i am talking about by losing one country which is the equivalent in size to 19 put together. Obviously this weakens the EU in a massive way considering it has such a huge trade deficit.

The ECSC started out life without the UK. It will survive grand. There isn't anyone else selling Audi equivs anyway and the people who want Audis will not find a locally made equivalent too easily.

Imreoir2 · 16-08-2019 4:13pm

brickster69 wrote: »

you do know that the Uk is larger than 20 of those 27 countries put together don't you? Including Ireland.

Yes, I am aware of that.
But when it comes to trade the EU is a single block of 450 million people, including Ireland. You do know that the EU is vastly larger than the UK and is the UKs most important trading partner on the planet right?

brickster69 · 16-08-2019 4:13pm

Dytalus wrote: »

Stop saying "equivalent in size". It's not, and it's not even close.

What you mean to say is "equivalent in contributions". And while yes, it does weaken the EU, the UK gets a hell of a lot more weakened from being cut out. Germany alone outdoes the UK in GDP, Population, and GDP per capita if you want to go by the comparison argument.

I am not saying by size of contributions. I am saying in size of output. Which is unquestionable. Obviously population will decrease as will GDP / Capita more so.

listermint · 16-08-2019 4:15pm

brickster69 wrote: »

I am not saying by size of contributions. I am saying in size of output. Which is unquestionable. Obviously population will decrease as will GDP / Capita more so.

I'd say your were talking about the demise of the euro back in the day too?

volchitsa · 16-08-2019 4:20pm

brickster69 wrote: »

No, i am talking about by losing one country which is the equivalent in size to 19 put together. Obviously this weakens the EU in a massive way considering it has such a huge trade deficit.

Not as much as it weakens the UK though, even by your own logic.

They've suddenly turned themselves into a tiny trading partner by any measure. Unless you want to compare them directly to places like Albania or Kyrghyzstan.

A Dub in Glasgo · 16-08-2019 4:23pm

Is this some sort of twight zone where we look at statistics but in a way that is absolutely irrelevant?

brickster69 · 16-08-2019 4:24pm

listermint wrote: »

I'd say your were talking about the demise of the euro back in the day too?

Euro is in a right mess mate. Only because it will not ( cannot ) make a common fiscal policy between all states. The Euro itself is it's biggest problem. Until they consolidate all debt and tax rates under one roof it will never succeed.

Tell me how · 16-08-2019 4:26pm

brickster69 wrote: »

Euro is in a right mess mate. Only because it will not ( cannot ) make a common fiscal policy between all states. The Euro itself is it's biggest problem. Until they consolidate all debt and tax rates under one roof it will never succeed.

Its in use 17 years by 19 countries.

What constitutes success?

listermint · 16-08-2019 4:27pm

brickster69 wrote: »

Euro is in a right mess mate. Only because it will not ( cannot ) make a common fiscal policy between all states. The Euro itself is it's biggest problem. Until they consolidate all debt and tax rates under one roof it will never succeed.

Knew you were only here for the lols.

At least its more obvious now.

Cheers!

Stop moaning ffs · 16-08-2019 4:30pm

brickster69 wrote: »

Euro is in a right mess mate. Only because it will not ( cannot ) make a common fiscal policy between all states. The Euro itself is it's biggest problem. Until they consolidate all debt and tax rates under one roof it will never succeed.

You’d wanna drop the whataboutisms and try talk about the dire and severe realities headed Britain’s way as a lone state. They are far more serious than anything the euro or Europe is facing. Handy being in a collective of 27 countries facing challenges together in a world of trading blocs.
It’s insanity to jump out on your own and expect it to end well but there they go.

maebee · 16-08-2019 4:31pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BBC Radio 4's World at One came from Dublin today. Good analysis and well worth while listening to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0007l3h

Thanks for this Kermit. A very good listen. Professor Brigid Laffan was particularly good.

Imreoir2 · 16-08-2019 4:44pm

brickster69 wrote: »

No, i am talking about by losing one country which is the equivalent in size to 19 put together. Obviously this weakens the EU in a massive way considering it has such a huge trade deficit.

The EU is losing the UK, which is worth the 19 smallest of 27 member states put together.

The UK is losing the rest of the EU, which is worth nearly 6 UKs put together. Who do you think is in more trouble here?

johnnyskeleton · 16-08-2019 4:45pm

brickster69 wrote: »

Euro is in a right mess mate. Only because it will not ( cannot ) make a common fiscal policy between all states. The Euro itself is it's biggest problem. Until they consolidate all debt and tax rates under one roof it will never succeed.

listermint wrote: »

Knew you were only here for the lols.

At least its more obvious now.

Cheers!

Mod note:

Serious posts and serious replies only please

Nody · 16-08-2019 4:45pm

brickster69 wrote: »

No, i am talking about by losing one country which is the equivalent in size to 19 put together. Obviously this weakens the EU in a massive way considering it has such a huge trade deficit.

And this is why EU regrets UK leaving; however EU as a total is way way bigger as a market, better prepared and most importantly united in their approach compared to UK. So yea; EU will get some pain but UK will blow it's head off and that's UK's decision because it's a sovereign nation and can do stupid ****. Exactly what UK brexiteers claim EU have stolen UK's sovereignty in the first place to do for some reason... Now how about you start to deal with the UK side of all these questions you raise instead of trying to deflect and ignore?

BluePlanet · 16-08-2019 4:51pm

It's like brickster69 is just making an argument for more harmonization..
Isn't that the opposite of what Brexiteers have been saying? That the EU is too harmonized and is supposed to be just a trading group?

Lackadaisical · 16-08-2019 5:02pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The EU is losing the UK, which is worth the 19 smallest of 27 member states put together.

I think the UK and to a large degree Irish commentary also underestimates the fact that a lot of EU members and the the EU institutions themselves will also see an upside to the UK leaving.

It has been a consistent pain in the rear for most of the time that it's been a member, with endless derogations, opt outs, rants and raves against key infrastructure like the Euro currency, demands special status arrangements, setups that undermine the single market and benefit the City of London, fought tooth and nail against regulations that aimed to mitigate a repeat of the 2008 financial crash, appears to be the US' puppet on most aspects of foreign policy, cozied up to Russian and other money laundering activities, as long as they're flushing their money through Dot Cotton's upmarket London financial laundrette.

We tend to have a view of the UK that's historically based on codepedendency and we do tend to understand their politics better than most, because we're so close, but to the rest of Europe they haven't always been the most friendly or cooperative of neighbours.

I'm not saying it's all negative. A lot of the relationship has also been very positive, but it's a bit like that really awkward colleague in the office who drives everyone mad and insists on boiling eggs in the communal kettle and parking across 3 spaces in the car park, a lot of people won't be all that bothered if they leave.

There's a cost/benefit analysis going on in a lot of people's heads about this and it's not always concluding in favour of the UK staying in.

If Brexit doesn't happen now, you've a decade or more of political turmoil ahead with the UK and Brexit being an endless distraction to the EU at a time when there are frankly far bigger issues on the horizon and a need to develop the EU and Eurozone so they're stable and able to weather any impending shocks.

I mean, I wish the UK the best of luck with whatever it is they're planning (or stumbling) towards, but I just don't really think that trying to keep a bad marriage together is worth it either, just as long as they understand they actually understand that a divorce is final and means they can't just assume to continue to use all our stuff as if nothing happened.

brickster69 · 16-08-2019 5:03pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's like brickster69 is just making an argument for more harmonization..
Isn't that the opposite of what Brexiteers have been saying? That the EU is too harmonized and is supposed to be just a trading group?

Don't worry panic will be coming soon.

BonnieSituation · 16-08-2019 5:05pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Its in use 17 years by 19 countries.

What constitutes success?

20 years actually!

Came into existence on 01/01/99 for business.

At that stage the decimal punt was actually less than 20 years old as an independent currency after breaking with sterling 30/03/1979.

And given the euro has weathered the great recession and is essentially a reserve currency, I reckon we can call it a success.

J Mysterio · 16-08-2019 5:07pm

Dytalus wrote: »

I came across this while browsing the Twitter responses to that.

https://twitter.com/taxreviewer77/status/1162296006085685248

I think it says something of the current state of our relations with the UK that I ran headfirst into Poe's Law on this.

The fact that someone of equivalent rank to Paschal is regarded as an 'EU leader' by virtue of being German, while our own Minister is ignored despite the Backstop being the big sticking point, is a rather frustrating reveal of the British opinion of Ireland.

Its like the article i posted on Irish diplomatic opinion: UK politicians are used to ignoring Ireland - 'Irish stuff isn't important and can be ignored'. Or that is the way they always considered it. They are annoyed at having to deal with Ireland. Might explain Boris' flagrant shunning of Varadkar.

Leave them off, they are only cornering themselves.

McGiver · 16-08-2019 5:09pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

brickster69 wrote: »

Looks like UK firms are already establishing new import opportunities in the US. The US has become the UK's largest trading partner for both imports and exports.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/u-s-overtakes-germany-as-uks-biggest-source-of-imports-uk-trade-department-idUKKCN1UZ1BI

EU > US trade. Also on UK doorstep.

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK's largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UKimports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports)

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

It's even worse.

EEA exports 55%
EU FTA enabled exports 10%
Total via EU membership 65%

All free access instantly lost and over-complicated on the crash-out day.

johnnyskeleton · 16-08-2019 5:09pm

Mod Note:

As above, serious posts only, not vague one liners. I appreciate that as a pro Brexit poster you may sometimes feel outnumbered etc, but please stick to the standards required by the charter.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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