Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Oh dear, we're stocking pilling in Ireland. 96% of capacity in use in Dublin area and not enough warehousing as none of any scale has been built since the crash. One suspects a fair bit of this is of course needless.

first I've heard of that

robinph

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It’s the great shame. If students mobilised properly they could have huge capacity to influence the political debate

New term starts soon, no exams for a while, new student intake of motivated young people. If anything is going to happen with them then September-October is the perfect time for it.

As for why people are protesting in Hong Kong but not the UK. In Hong Kong there is the genuine current threat to peoples liberty. In the UK there is a vague notion of a threat to your potential livelihood at some unknown point in the future but as yet nobody has decided what that will be or how because nobody still has any idea of what will happen when, if at all.

If there was a decent opposition that had an idea of what shouldn't be happening then they would be able to rile people up to protest, but as Corbyn doesn't know what he wants (other than his picture on the side of the staircase in No10, which is basically all Johnson was after as well) there isn't any anti-Brexit movement to pile in behind.

trellheim

Miliband in a Standard Article

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/the-johnsoncorbyn-double-act-is-no-joke-it-threatens-britain-a4213926.html


Well pointed out that the UK is currently running the Blazing Saddles defence "threaten, as the new Sheriff, to shoot yourself .... nobody moves or the black guy gets it!"

J Mysterio

Very good stuff.

I liked David Miliband well enough and he should have been Labour leader, not his snivelling back-stabbing little brother.

Imreoir2

murphaph wrote: »

I think Swinson is being pragmatic. She stated the obvious (perhaps a little too publicly) yesterday that Corbyn is toxic to too many to have a chance of becoming caretaker PM. She realised later in the day that she could have been more diplomatic and has agreed to meet him, where she will tell him in private the exact same thing and she will be right. Corbyn needs to be made to understand that his world view is not shared by most MPs (or UK voters IMO).

I think the caretaker PM should be from Labour however, to sweeten the pill of their leader not becoming PM. That would be fair I think.

Swinson could have handled things better yesterday, but she is trying to row back rather than stubbornly hold her position, which is to be admired.

That's if any of this caretaker PM stuff can fly at all. I think it's just as likely they'll go over the cliff edge arguing among themselves.

Corbyn wont want to be replaced as leader of the Labour party, care taker arangement or not he will want to take Labour into the next GE and hope to secure enough support to implement his programm. Allowing another Labour MP to be installed as Caretaker PM would undermine him as leader. If he agrees to anyone other than himself being installed it would probably have to be a non-entity. An independant or someone from one of the smaller parties.

prawnsambo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Should have phrased that better. They’re just groups like this thread with discussions and links etc. Predominantly populated by Brits. But leavers and remainers both sides don’t seem to trust the libs

I think I said it earlier, but as the LibDems get more popular and rise in the polls (predominantly at the expense of Labour), the more vitriol is sent their way. And they're (very annoyingly for some) setting the agenda for the remain side. If there's an early election, it could be very interesting.

20silkcut

Labour can’t do anything because of Corbyn
Lib dems can’t be trusted
Students can’t be bothered
SF are abstained

Yet the Bxp and Tory’s can hatch credible plans to get Labour votes

The stars have truly aligned for a hard brexit.

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It is an English problem requiring an English solution ...

But it isn't . It's an all-UK problem thats going to affect Ireland for donkeys years to come.
...
Treating Brexit as GB or English only is a catastrophic mistake.

But Brexit is a problem entirely caused and created by the English in England. More precisely, but the Tory English in England. "Everyone" knows that the referendum was proposed and run for the single purpose of settling a difference of opinion within the Conservative Party, and at a time when that party had next to no significant representation in any of the other three constituent countries. Indeed, even the Labour Party had no significant influence in two of the other three countries.

Three years post-referendum, Brexit is still and English problem. That the internal Tory wrangling and political incompetenc affects so many other countries (within the Kingdom and beyond) doesn't change the essential nature of Brexit, nor the fact that it needs the English to come up with a solution.

Incidentally, I had an English Remainer in the house for a few days earlier this week and asked her why she wasn't on the streets protesting. "Too busy trying to make ends meet" was her answer. "But I've signed a lot of petitions". As far as her fellow-remainers were concerned, though, she said a great number of them believe that "no deal" means nothing's going to change, so they too will sign a petition, but don't feel the need to disrupt their routine to go demonstrating.

Imreoir2

CelticRambler wrote: »

As far as her fellow-remainers were concerned, though, she said a great number of them believe that "no deal" means nothing's going to change, so they too will sign a petition, but don't feel the need to disrupt their routine to go demonstrating.

How is it possible to be this ill-infnformed? I mean, even the UK media is not pretending that No-deal just means nothing happens.

jimmycrackcorm

20silkcut wrote: »

I was up in crossmaglen recently and saw anti brexit signs at every crossroads highlighting the damage a hard brexit will do to that area. I presume a lot of people in this area will vote for abstensionism Sinn F candidates in any upcoming election. I cannot understand that . Call me a simpleton call me a partitionist call me patronizing call me what you want. To me that just makes no sense.

As far as the people of Crossmaglen are concerned, this is a problem created by the British. Voting for absentionist MPs however is playing the fiddle while Rome burns.

SF is very delusional calling for a border poll at this time.

murphaph

CelticRambler wrote: »

Incidentally, I had an English Remainer in the house for a few days earlier this week and asked her why she wasn't on the streets protesting. "Too busy trying to make ends meet" was her answer. "But I've signed a lot of petitions".

She'll be a lot busier trying to make ends meet next year.

trellheim

But Brexit is a problem entirely caused and created by the English in England

Aided and abetted by actors like the DUP , but I don't disagree. But it stops there. Once that referendum result rolled in it became everyones issue

10000maniacs

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Anarchy is needed. I'm still shocked that here hasn't been major protests on university campus.
This years intake were what 14,15 years old when the vote took place. Yet there seems no hint that they realise what has been taken from them, and how if they mobilised they could create a movement that would be really difficult to argue against.

Who would the students be protesting to? The University Deans and Chaplains are all probably on their side. Well Oxbridge could be different but that's another story.

J Mysterio

10000maniacs wrote: »

Who would the students be protesting to? The University Deans and Chaplains are all probably on their side. Well Oxbridge could be different but that's another story.

Protesting the bloody government obviously. And Brexit.

Consider the Vietnam protest movement.

54and56

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Corbyn wont want to be replaced as leader of the Labour party, care taker arangement or not he will want to take Labour into the next GE and hope to secure enough support to implement his programm. Allowing another Labour MP to be installed as Caretaker PM would undermine him as leader. If he agrees to anyone other than himself being installed it would probably have to be a non-entity. An independant or someone from one of the smaller parties.

Ken Clarke would be my guy. Decades of service, well regarded cross party and retiring at the next election so no threat to anyone. Along with Heseltine he is the voice of Pro Europe One Nation conservatism within the Tory party which has almost been expunged by the ERG takeover.

A "Tory" PM ousting BoJo to prevent a no deal Brexit would be sweetness personified. I can only imagine the tantrums of Cummins and co, Farage on LBC screaming about a coup blah blah blah.

Also, whilst I'm thinking about it two other points that have been niggling me are:-

1. BoJo and Co are screaming to the EU out of one side of their mouth that despite the UK Govt negotiating and agreeing the WA the WA is dead because the HoC won't approve it and simultaneously screaming out of the other side of their mouth that if the HoC exercises it's collective judgement in favour of preventing a no deal Brexit it is somehow undemocratic.

2. BoJo and Co shout down anyone predicting economic harm to the UK from a no deal Brexit as more "Project Fear" yet at the same time predict tremendous economic harm happening to Ireland if it doesn't relent on the backstop and forces the UK to leave on a no deal Brexit but I've never once seen any interviewer challenge this hypocritical position.

WomanSkirtFan8

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Didn’t that ship literally sail in 97?

Yes it did.

10000maniacs

J Mysterio wrote: »

Protesting the bloody government obviously. And Brexit.

Consider the Vietnam protest movement.

They already do that. A lot of that million+ people who marched in London were students. Also, I don't think violently ripping the heart out of London is necessarily the answer.
I assumed ArmaniJeanss was talking about in campus protests.

J Mysterio

10000maniacs wrote: »

They already do that. A lot of that million+ people who marched in London were students. Also, I don't think violently ripping the heart out of London is necessarily the answer.
I assumed ArmaniJeanss was talking about in campus protests.

A lot of the Vietnam protests were centred on or around University campuses.

robinph

Imreoir2 wrote: »

How is it possible to be this ill-infnformed? I mean, even the UK media is not pretending that No-deal just means nothing happens.

They have had a couple of "idiot guides" on some of the BBC news reports about a week or so ago vaguely trying to point out to people that no-deal wasn't the same as "nothing changes". They only seem to be half hearted about doing those explainers though.

Plenty of short clips of people in the street saying "lets get on with it an leave" and variations on that theme, but nobody countering those comments saying what no-deal actually means.

Stop moaning ffs

Clarke has said he’s prepared to step in for caretaker. As has Harman

54and56

This Irish Times article is an excellent 5 minute read.

It succinctly explains the 3 way conundrum the HoC has failed (and will continue to fail) to resolve unless some skilled leadership and negotiation is shown but depressingly it concludes that at the very time the UK needs talented leadership it actually has the worst political leaders, across the spectrum, for decades.

In essence the article argues that whilst "Leave" won 52 : 48 the leave vote was made up of two subsets i.e. those who wanted to leave with a deal and those who wanted a hard Brexit and were happy to leave with no deal. This results in a never ending three way split which after 3 years the HoC still cannot break.

"Deal is beaten by the combined majority of those wanting remain and those wanting no deal. No deal is beaten by the combined majority of those wanting remain and those wanting a deal. This is why the House of Commons can’t vote itself out of the Brexit crisis."

10000maniacs

J Mysterio wrote: »

A lot of the Vietnam protests were centred on or around University campuses.

That was different. They became violent because Nixon took their protests personally. Nixon was unhinged.

trellheim

Ken Clarke was the only Tory to vote against A50 invoke 498:114

Shelga

Is there any way there could temporarily be two PMs, if it’s a caretaker government of national unity? Then you could have Corbyn and Swinson, for example? Seeing as there seems to be practically no one that everyone could agree to. And having two leaders means they could potentially get the buy in of a much larger portion of the HoC, especially if they are from different parts of the political spectrum.

Crazy suggestion yes, but these are crazy times we live in!

Charles Babbage

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

As far as the people of Crossmaglen are concerned, this is a problem created by the British. Voting for absentionist MPs however is playing the fiddle while Rome burns.

SF is very delusional calling for a border poll at this time.

People in Crossmaglen do not wish to tell the English how to run their country and would like the English to do likewise.

Considering that the British government are proposing a no deal Brexit which entirely overthrows the political settlement in NI, it would be rather odd if SF did not mention a border poll at such a time. Anyone who wishes to postpone a border poll should stablise NI in its present situation and scrap the Brexit threat.

That said if there was an election, I think SF could propose voting in order to protect NI, so that they could turn up for a backstop vote or similar.

ArmaniJeanss

10000maniacs wrote: »

They already do that. A lot of that million+ people who marched in London were students. Also, I don't think violently ripping the heart out of London is necessarily the answer.
I assumed ArmaniJeanss was talking about in campus protests.

in campus protests was what I meant alright. Or protests that start on campus but spread out. And I accept your point that many students would have been in many of the various protests.
But they can be ignored as Remoaners when they are part of a broader march.
A student-led movement is less easy to dismiss because by September around 90% of people in college/uni won't have been entitled to vote in June 16.

As for ripping the heart out of London or other cities not being the answer. Probably true alright, but I think there's certainly an acceptable level of civil disobedience possible.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Ken Clarke was the only Tory to vote against A50 invoke 498:114

A caller to David Lammy yesterday when challenged on the assertion that 'no deal' was part of the referendum campaign, fell back on the Article 50 vote in the HoC as evidence that parliament voted to leave with or without a deal.

That went completely unchallenged.

Seth Brundle

Mod Note: before it gather's any more momentum, can we please not derail the thread discussing SF's abstentionist policy?

Water John

54&56, here is a Govn't Minister giving a reason as to why Clarke couldn't be PM;

The energy minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, said he thought it would be “an odd thing” for Clarke to take the helm at the age of 79. “I’m 44 years old. He was an MP before I was born. He’s been around for a long time,” Kwarteng told Today.

“I think it would be an odd thing for him to lead a unity government, you know. I think he’s nearly 80.” Guardian.

Who left him out in public?

brickster69

Looks like UK firms are already establishing new import opportunities in the US. The US has become the UK's largest trading partner for both imports and exports.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/u-s-overtakes-germany-as-uks-biggest-source-of-imports-uk-trade-department-idUKKCN1UZ1BI