Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Nody

brickster69 wrote: »

Looks like UK firms are already establishing new import opportunities in the US. The US has become the UK's largest trading partner for both imports and exports.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/u-s-overtakes-germany-as-uks-biggest-source-of-imports-uk-trade-department-idUKKCN1UZ1BI

To bad the single market trade is worth about 4x as much and the FTA will make UK look like the gimp in Pulp Fiction in comparison to what US will get from such a deal if it gets approved one day (remember even republicans think months at least to draft it as an optimistic view and that's nothing of Trump doing his "throw toys out of pram" to bully his counterpart routine or the democratic house blocking it etc.).

prawnsambo

Nody wrote: »

To bad the single market trade is worth about 4x as much and the FTA will make UK look like the gimp in Pulp Fiction in comparison to what US will get from such a deal if it gets approved one day (remember even republicans think months at least to draft it as an optimistic view and that's nothing of Trump doing his "throw toys out of pram" to bully his counterpart routine or the democratic house blocking it etc.).

There was a quote that was going around twitter from US trade negotiators about negotiations with the EU that went along the lines of "The first time we had to negotiate with a market of equal power. Normally we just fax the terms and tell them to sign."

J Mysterio

brickster69 wrote: »

Looks like UK firms are already establishing new import opportunities in the US. The US has become the UK's largest trading partner for both imports and exports.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/u-s-overtakes-germany-as-uks-biggest-source-of-imports-uk-trade-department-idUKKCN1UZ1BI

EU > US trade. Also on UK doorstep.

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK's largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UKimports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports)

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

Quin_Dub

J Mysterio wrote: »

EU > US trade. Also on UK doorstep.

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK's largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UKimports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports)

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

And - All that US trade stops dead on October 31st.

At the absolute best it'd be the New Year before even a loose outline of a deal was ready , and even if Trump signs it the House won't approve it so trade will remain stopped indefinitely.

Also - Any deal that's acceptable to the US won't be compatible with any deal with the EU.

The US will demand the lowering of food standards , which means that the EU won't do a deal with the UK as a result.

There is simply no scenario that a Post No-Deal Brexit UK is better off than they are today..

All the spin in the world won't change that fundamental immutable fact.

Kermit.de.frog

Paschal Donoghoe did go to London. This is actually correct.


https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1162317877942394880

Tell me how

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Paschal Donoghue did go to London. This is actually correct.


https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1162317877942394880

And certain Brexiteers had been advocating that they no longer talk to the EU but to Ireland and that they should 'bribe them or threaten them or whatever'....

They are trying to create a narrative that they are in control while everyone else is sitting with their back to them.

Stop moaning ffs

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And - All that US trade stops dead on October 31st.

At the absolute best it'd be the New Year before even a loose outline of a deal was ready , and even if Trump signs it the House won't approve it so trade will remain stopped indefinitely.

Also - Any deal that's acceptable to the US won't be compatible with any deal with the EU.

The US will demand the lowering of food standards , which means that the EU won't do a deal with the UK as a result.

There is simply no scenario that a Post No-Deal Brexit UK is better off than they are today..

All the spin in the world won't change that fundamental immutable fact.

Ian Dunt on the latest remainiacs podcast pointed out that Trump is threatening to leave the WTO and seems determined to, yet brexiters are counting on wto as some sort of saviour.
So when it comes to it the UK will be in a total limbo at best, as vassal state will just follow whatever US dictates

Nody

Quin_Dub wrote: »

And - All that US trade stops dead on October 31st.

At the absolute best it'd be the New Year before even a loose outline of a deal was ready , and even if Trump signs it the House won't approve it so trade will remain stopped indefinitely.

Also - Any deal that's acceptable to the US won't be compatible with any deal with the EU.

The US will demand the lowering of food standards , which means that the EU won't do a deal with the UK as a result.

There is simply no scenario that a Post No-Deal Brexit UK is better off than they are today..

All the spin in the world won't change that fundamental immutable fact.

I disagree on this point; I think there will be a deal that all export to EU meeting EU standards. The problem for UK is that the US deal will wipe out their local farmers (along with trade tariffs etc.) and only a very small luxury style exporting will survive as it requires certified meat etc. to go to EU. This will be the same way there is US meat export to EU meeting EU requirements but in terms of volume it's not huge or for example Brazilian meat that need to meet traceability, no hormone treatment, slaughtering standards etc. This leaves UK between two impossible requirements; they can't go to US standards because they don't have the scale or market to compete but they can't remain at EU standard with an US trade deal as it will be to expensive for their farmers to compete (and US will require full market access). Farmers get to sail away on the Brexit boat as (yet another) casualty for "taking back control by giving it away completely to a third party instead of shared power as a trade block" as the second is loss of sovereignty while the first is somehow remaining sovereign by shooting yourself in the head instead.

Dytalus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Paschal Donoghoe did go to London. This is actually correct.


https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1162317877942394880

I came across this while browsing the Twitter responses to that.

https://twitter.com/taxreviewer77/status/1162296006085685248

I think it says something of the current state of our relations with the UK that I ran headfirst into Poe's Law on this.

The fact that someone of equivalent rank to Paschal is regarded as an 'EU leader' by virtue of being German, while our own Minister is ignored despite the Backstop being the big sticking point, is a rather frustrating reveal of the British opinion of Ireland.

lawred2

brickster69 wrote: »

Looks like UK firms are already establishing new import opportunities in the US. The US has become the UK's largest trading partner for both imports and exports.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/u-s-overtakes-germany-as-uks-biggest-source-of-imports-uk-trade-department-idUKKCN1UZ1BI

biggest source of imports?

so does the US need the UK more than the UK needs them?

prawnsambo

Just checked there, but I can't find any reference to the EU/UK new WTO schedule of tariffs. Last I can find is that they were still being objected to back in March. Anyone got any more up to date news on this?

Nody

prawnsambo wrote: »

Just checked there, but I can't find any reference to the EU/UK new WTO schedule of tariffs. Last I can find is that they were still being objected to back in March. Anyone got any more up to date news on this?

Last I heard was the same with EU looking at taking the full volume if needed to get it through while UK still had as much of a plan as they did with Brexit in general (i.e. unicorns and pixy dust).

brickster69

J Mysterio wrote: »

EU > US trade. Also on UK doorstep.

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK's largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UKimports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports)

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

Yes and the rest of the world is the UK's largest import and export market and growing day by day.

Kermit.de.frog

Telegraph reporting now on a leaked German memo to it's Finance Minister that Germany will not back renegotiation of the WA.

Germany expects No Deal and will not renegotiate, says leaked briefing


Germany expects a No Deal Brexit and is not prepared to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, according to leaked details of an internal briefing paper for Angela Merkel’s government.

The leaked paper is the first evidence that Germany may be preparing to let Britain walk away with No Deal rather than back down to Boris Johnson’s demand to drop the Irish backstop.

The paper was prepared by civil servants for the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz, ahead of face-to-face talks with the chancellor of the exchequer, Sajid Javid, in Berlin on Friday.

Paywalled

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/16/germany-expects-no-deal-will-not-renegotiate-says-leaked-briefing/?auth=loggedInNotPremium&ppw=true&reghardpw=true&regsoftpw=true

54and56

Water John wrote: »

54&56, here is a Govn't Minister giving a reason as to why Clarke couldn't be PM;

The energy minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, said he thought it would be “an odd thing” for Clarke to take the helm at the age of 79. “I’m 44 years old. He was an MP before I was born. He’s been around for a long time,” Kwarteng told Today.

“I think it would be an odd thing for him to lead a unity government, you know. I think he’s nearly 80.” Guardian.

Who left him out in public?

Well apart from Kwasi Kwarteng's statement being pure ageist it ignores two key things:-

1. A caretaker PM, based on the JC proposal, would be a single issue/event PM. He would facilitate blocking a no deal Brexit by seeking (and undoubtedly securing) an extension from the EU to allow time for a GE. I'm confident whoever was caretaker PM, whether aged 8 or 80 would, with the full weight of the Dominc Grieve et al behind him, be able to deliver his lines in HoC and in Brussels.

2. Age is irrelevant, just look at Warren Buffet who is 88 and still running one of the worlds most successful investment companies or Warren Buffets Chairman Charlie Munger who is 95!!! Ken Clarke at a sprightly 79 remains a very able and articulate politician, far more able and articulate than Kwasi Kwarteng. In fact I'd go so far as to say Ken Clarke's IQ is greater than the combined IQ of the entire ERG membership excluding JRM who is indeed a very sharp operator.

brickster69

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Telegraph reporting now on a leaked German memo to it's Finance Minister that Germany will not back renegotiation of the WA.



Paywalled

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/16/germany-expects-no-deal-will-not-renegotiate-says-leaked-briefing/?auth=loggedInNotPremium&ppw=true&reghardpw=true&regsoftpw=true

Is this the politicians or businesses saying this ?

kunst nugget

brickster69 wrote: »

Is this the politicians or businesses saying this ?

It's an internal briefing document from German civil servants. Don't worry, BMW are coming in on horseback to save good ol' Blighty from Kraut von Bureaucracy.

54and56

Mod Note

No memes please.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

Yes and the rest of the world is the UK's largest import and export market and growing day by day.

That's just simply untrue.

The UK do not have a hint of a sniff of any trade deal with anyone anywhere.. Other than of course those titans of global Commerce , the Faroe Islands.

In the event of No Deal , all UK Imports and exports move to WTO rules instantly.

There are no deals "ready and waiting" to be signed with anyone.

And if the UK do as they have said more than once and apply zero tariffs on a whole host of goods , then no one will sign a deal as under WTO rules everyone has to get the same deal so why would they bother with a deal when they have already been given unfettered access to the UK market?

Kermit.de.frog

BBC Radio 4's World at One came from Dublin today. Good analysis and well worth while listening to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0007l3h

prawnsambo

Dominic Grieve has said that he would support a GNU, but not one with Corbyn as interim PM. Exactly what you'd expect; no Tory rebel would countenance such a thing. What's the betting Corbyn digs his heels in and kills this off before it gets off the ground?

BluePlanet

Just musing here, does anybody know if Corbyn actually wrote to Mary Lou about his interim PM plan?

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Telegraph reporting now on a leaked German memo to it's Finance Minister that Germany will not back renegotiation of the WA.



Paywalled

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/16/germany-expects-no-deal-will-not-renegotiate-says-leaked-briefing/?auth=loggedInNotPremium&ppw=true&reghardpw=true&regsoftpw=true

Here is the article in full from another website :

https://news.yahoo.com/germany-expects-no-deal-not-111725069.html

brickster69

Quin_Dub wrote: »

There are no deals "ready and waiting" to be signed with anyone.

Did you here the one about when Trump met Raab ?

DT: What's your deficit with the EU Dom ?

DR : Oh, about 100 Billion Donald

DT : Nice, we will take it all. And at a better price than what you are buying in now.

DR : Wow, cheers Donald. How much ?

DT : How about 5 Billion Dom ?

DR : Sounds great Donald. That's 5 billion less than the EU charge us.

Lots of laughs

DT : I know your joking Dom, but we will pay you 5 Billion for that.

Stop moaning ffs

brickster69 wrote: »

Did you here the one about when Trump met Raab ?

DT: What's your deficit with the EU Dom ?

DR : Oh, about 100 Billion Donald

DT : Nice, we will take it all. And at a better price than what you are buying in now.

DR : Wow, cheers Donald. How much ?

DT : How about 5 Billion Dom ?

DR : Sounds great Donald. That's 5 billion less than the EU charge us.

Lots of laughs

DT : I know your joking Dom, but we will pay you 5 Billion for that.

Do you genuinely believe Trump or the US is Britain’s Trade deal saviour somehow? If So you really haven’t been paying attention to how trump works and certainly not paying attention to how the US operates when it comes to trade deals.
‘America doesn’t have friends. It has interests’.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

Did you here the one about when Trump met Raab ?

DT: What's your deficit with the EU Dom ?

DR : Oh, about 100 Billion Donald

DT : Nice, we will take it all. And at a better price than what you are buying in now.

DR : Wow, cheers Donald. How much ?

DT : How about 5 Billion Dom ?

DR : Sounds great Donald. That's 5 billion less than the EU charge us.

Lots of laughs

DT : I know your joking Dom, but we will pay you 5 Billion for that.

Again.. Donald Trump doesn't approve Trade deals.. Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats do..

Trump can tell Raab or anyone else anything he likes.. The UK still aren't getting a trade deal signed with the US any time soon.

Lackadaisical

It’s also forgetting that Trump’s reign in power might be a bad memory this time in 2021 while the British may have hitched themselves to the most toxic and controversial presidency in US history.

If you’ve a centrist Democrat and the reemergence of the center of the Republicans, it doesn’t bode well for the UK.

You’ve also got the issue of a Brexited UK run by the far left of Labour which would absolutely infuriate the GOP.

Lots of possibilities that don’t really work out fantastically for the British-US relationship.

brickster69

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Do you genuinely believe Trump or the US is Britain’s Trade deal saviour somehow? If So you really haven’t been paying attention to how trump works and certainly not paying attention to how the US operates when it comes to trade deals.
‘America doesn’t have friends. It has interests’.

No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

BluePlanet

20silkcut wrote: »

Personally myself and I’m sure many of you here, would rather things remain as they are, than a United ireland in the immediate term.

Meant to reply to this yesterday.
The bolded bit is the crux of the gap here.
You want to preserve the status quo, whereas the majority of Irish people living in NI don't.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

This just doesn't make any sense.

There is no place to do business for the UK if they leave under no-deal.

As part of the EU , the UK have access to the entire globe.. Outside , they have access to nothing.

It's utterly delusional to think that the UK will negotiate a better deal with anyone than they already have via the EU.

EVERY single country that the UK looks to do a deal with will demand better terms from the UK than they get today from the EU and the UK will have to give it to them as they have zero leverage.