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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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    #9812
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    brickster69 wrote: »
    No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

    Growing rest of the world? Dear god what nonsense newspapers are you reading?

    There’s a global recession incoming. Good luck to Britain with no deals with anyone in that environment


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    #9813
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,268 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Dytalus wrote: »
    I came across this while browsing the Twitter responses to that.

    https://twitter.com/taxreviewer77/status/1162296006085685248

    I think it says something of the current state of our relations with the UK that I ran headfirst into Poe's Law on this.

    The fact that someone of equivalent rank to Paschal is regarded as an 'EU leader' by virtue of being German, while our own Minister is ignored despite the Backstop being the big sticking point, is a rather frustrating reveal of the British opinion of Ireland.

    A rather large problem with twitter, and particularly on Brexit, are the large numbers of Anon handles that tweet extreme views. These views are almost exclusively on Brexit with a smattering of climate change denial.

    I find it hard to believe that these are real accounts all run by real single individuals. It appears to me to be completely orchastrated by organised groups intent sowing division online.


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    #9814
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,167 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    Meant to reply to this yesterday.
    The bolded bit is the crux of the gap here.
    You want to preserve the status quo, whereas the majority of Irish people living in NI don't.

    What a majority in NI wants is only part of the issue though , it has to be a majority North & South.

    And , being pragmatic and dispassionate , would taking on a Post Brexit NI with an economy in utter free-fall be a great idea so Ireland given that the economy here is equally going to be under pressure.

    A United Ireland caused by Brexit may be too poisoned a chalice.


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    #9815
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,087 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    Meant to reply to this yesterday.
    The bolded bit is the crux of the gap here.
    You want to preserve the status quo, whereas the majority of Irish people living in NI don't.

    What about the non-Irish people living in NI? They get a say as well you know.


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    #9816
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,882 ✭✭✭Christy42


    brickster69 wrote: »
    No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

    The UK is ditching most of the trade deals it has with the rest of the world. It has managed to maintain its current deal with some small players.

    It will be some time before it gets deals with the rest of the world that will be lost and on far worse terms with the big players than it has now.


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    #9817
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Looks like UK firms are already establishing new import opportunities in the US. The US has become the UK's largest trading partner for both imports and exports.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/u-s-overtakes-germany-as-uks-biggest-source-of-imports-uk-trade-department-idUKKCN1UZ1BI

    Sorry, but the EU is still vastly more important to the UK than the US. The US is the largest single country in terms of trade, but the EU 27 accounts for much more of British trade than the US does.


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    #9818
    BluePlanet
    Registered Users Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    Dmitry Grozoubinski posted a fact-sheet on what UK plant and animal exporters will have to do post Brexit (No Deal Brexit).

    At border vet checks.

    He also gives a runs down of the mis-information campaign by prominent Brexiteer personalites.

    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1162071215504314369


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    #9819
    BluePlanet
    Registered Users Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    What a majority in NI wants is only part of the issue though , it has to be a majority North & South.

    And , being pragmatic and dispassionate , would taking on a Post Brexit NI with an economy in utter free-fall be a great idea so Ireland given that the economy here is equally going to be under pressure.

    A United Ireland caused by Brexit may be too poisoned a chalice.
    It's like saying to Nationalists to get back in their box.
    I suspect that is a loosing argument in any UI referenda.


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    #9820
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    Sorry, but the EU is still vastly more important to the UK than the US. The US is the largest single country in terms of trade, but the EU 27 accounts for much more of British trade than the US does.

    you do know that the Uk is larger than 20 of those 27 countries put together don't you? Including Ireland.

    All roads lead to Rome.



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    #9821
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,087 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    What a majority in NI wants is only part of the issue though , it has to be a majority North & South.

    And , being pragmatic and dispassionate , would taking on a Post Brexit NI with an economy in utter free-fall be a great idea so Ireland given that the economy here is equally going to be under pressure.

    A United Ireland caused by Brexit may be too poisoned a chalice.

    I doubt it would happen as Ireland will be looking through their green tinted glasses at the first opportunity to vote on a united Ireland, but I would think it approaching Brexit levels of stupidity for Ireland to agree to take on NI anytime soon. Far better for Ireland to delay things as long as possible and put the notions of a united Ireland on the very, very back burner and hope that NI doesn't get any ideas to hold a vote.

    The romantic notions for the republic would be too strong I think, but it's not something that you really want anytime soon.


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    #9822
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Stop moaning ffs wrote: »
    Do you genuinely believe Trump or the US is Britain’s Trade deal saviour somehow? If So you really haven’t been paying attention to how trump works and certainly not paying attention to how the US operates when it comes to trade deals.
    ‘America doesn’t have friends. It has interests’.
    That's true of all international trading relationships TBF, every trader on the planet is thinking "what's in it for me!" whenever they enter into any trade negotiations or deal.


    Globalists traders like to pitch countries against each other, then pick them off one by one.
    This is where a trading union (the EU) has a distinct advantage over individual countries, unless that country is economically large.


    Western industrialists have over the past half a century given away the power that a manufacturing nation in trade negotiations to China so they can make a quick buck on the sale of the finished products. Now China has that power and can decide whether to deal with the west or not on their terms. Trump will soon find out to his cost that globalism is too strong a beast to tackle alone. Thatcher and Reagan gave away their countries manufacturing bases in the 1980s to support their wealthy traders who were only interested on the profits they gain in the transfer of products from the cheap Chinese producer to the rich consumer.



    Maybe the plan is to devalue the pound enough to make it viable to restart the manufacturing of consumer products.


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    #9823
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,087 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    brickster69 wrote: »
    you do know that the Uk is larger than 20 of those 27 countries put together don't you? Including Ireland.

    Explain yourself.

    In what possible universe is the UK larger than the EU27?


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    #9824
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Telegraph reporting now on a leaked German memo to it's Finance Minister that Germany will not back renegotiation of the WA.



    Paywalled

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/16/germany-expects-no-deal-will-not-renegotiate-says-leaked-briefing/?auth=loggedInNotPremium&ppw=true&reghardpw=true&regsoftpw=true

    The first evidence? Have they not been listening to absolutely everything that has been said for months? Why does it take the leak of an internal document for them to realise the reality that has been staring them in the face for months?


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    #9825
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,268 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Lackadaisical wrote: »
    It’s also forgetting that Trump’s reign in power might be a bad memory this time in 2021 while the British may have hitched themselves to the most toxic and controversial presidency in US history.

    If you’ve a centrist Democrat and the reemergence of the center of the Republicans, it doesn’t bode well for the UK.

    You’ve also got the issue of a Brexited UK run by the far left of Labour which would absolutely infuriate the GOP.

    Lots of possibilities that don’t really work out fantastically for the British-US relationship.

    I will say this about Trump. Despite him being an unlikable individual from a policy perspective (apparently he is quite charming in person), and has pointed the USA on some dark paths, he has not, like other much vaunted predecessors of his, gone on a foreign adventure.

    If he manages to keep his army out of Iran, that may well be what he'll be remembered for.


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    #9826
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,087 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Dytalus wrote: »
    I came across this while browsing the Twitter responses to that.

    https://twitter.com/taxreviewer77/status/1162296006085685248

    I think it says something of the current state of our relations with the UK that I ran headfirst into Poe's Law on this.

    The fact that someone of equivalent rank to Paschal is regarded as an 'EU leader' by virtue of being German, while our own Minister is ignored despite the Backstop being the big sticking point, is a rather frustrating reveal of the British opinion of Ireland.

    It took some explaining, but I think they eventually registered that Ireland was not part of the UK...and they have now deleted their account on realising their stupidity.

    It might actually have been a genuine person on the other end that has learnt something rather than a troll.


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    #9827
    Irish Praetorian
    Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭Irish Praetorian


    brickster69 wrote: »
    No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

    I hear this argument occasionally and I'm really not sure what people are trying to make of it - the EU is proportionally making up less and less of the world economy, that is true; it is also true of just about every modern western democratic state. The US at the end of WW2 had about half the worlds economic output - now you would have to add together the EU, the US and China to reach the same percentage. Should we therefore presume The US is now some kind of economic kitten because it makes up (proportionally) less than it did previously?

    Collectively, Western states are making up a smaller part of the world economy, this is to be expected and given population breakdowns and history, no alternative could really be sustained. What is unexpected however is that one such western nation, seeing these circumstances, would decide that its interests are best served by going solo and trying to take its place in the world market as an even smaller player. One might suspect that the logical course for a group of mature democracies with waning economic power, would for them to pool their resources and try to manage the change in circumstances as best they can (hence the EU).

    Instead, the UK seems to have plumped for a mad grab at memories of a bygone era without a sensible approach to the new economic circumstances. So far the only economic argument to have arisen from Brexit is that it is going to make food cheaper by allowing its agricultural sector to be undercut by cheap foreign imports, that it's going to somehow get a boon for its fishing by alienating its main consumer of fish and that it will somehow manage a deal with the US on better terms than its existing deal with the EU. I can understand people being happy to take these assumptions at face value but none of them stand up to any rigorous analysis.


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    #9828
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,185 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    The first evidence? Have they not been listening to absolutely everything that has been said for months? Why does it take the leak of an internal document for them to realise the reality that has been staring them in the face for months?

    They seriously think they are in a game of poker with the EU : in their minds, Merkel and Macron are on the other side of the table with their cards pressed close to their chest and may or may not be bluffing.

    It shows a total misunderstanding of the EU and how it works.


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    #9829
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    brickster69 wrote: »
    No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

    Sure sure, anything you say Brickster, the EU that has comprehensive trade deals with most of the planet will shink into insignificance, while the UK will soar into being a global power off the back of its fish deal with the Faroe Islands.

    The UK is going to be eaten for lunch in trade talks.


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    #9830
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,167 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    brickster69 wrote: »
    you do know that the Uk is larger than 20 of those 27 countries put together don't you? Including Ireland.

    And why would that matter?

    They trade internationally as part of the EU , the size of the individual countries is utterly irrelevant.

    The UK is like a drunk picking a fight with 5 guys outside the pub and expecting to win based on the premise that his is bigger than each of the 5 guys individually but not realising that they'll fight as a team and collectively pummel him.


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    #9831
    Dytalus
    Registered Users Posts: 459 ✭✭Dytalus


    brickster69 wrote: »
    you do know that the Uk is larger than 20 of those 27 countries put together don't you? Including Ireland.

    ...what

    I assume I misunderstood you. Because for neither population nor GDP is that true.

    Removing the top 7 most populous countries (plus removing the UK), the EU would have a population well in excess of the 66 million of the UK. In fact you exceed the threshold before you even get out of the next top 10 nations.

    GDP wise, the UK's GDP as per 2018 was 2,393 billion. Again removing the top 7 other nations, we easily exceed that threshold with the remaining 20. In fact, we once again exceed the UK's nominal GDP within the next 10 nations, never mind the 10 nations after that.

    Can you clarify what you meant?


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    #9832
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,271 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    brickster69 wrote: »
    you do know that the Uk is larger than 20 of those 27 countries put together don't you? Including Ireland.
    You do know that the total African trade of all it's 55 countries, gold from South Africa to oil in Nigeria etc. is half the GDP of France? Or that of the 193 countries in the world 35 are considered advanced economies; 27 of those are left in EU when UK leaves and UK's economy is trading with such economies as a farmer in for example Chad does not really care about the wealth management services London can offer him or that there's a new Landrover he can buy.

    But let me hammer this home with a simple picture; this is how the world looks today:
    trade-blocs.jpg
    Looks like pretty much every country is in a trade block these days but tally ho UK will show them all the errors of their ways because trade blocks means you're not sovereign or something...


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    #9833
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Dytalus wrote: »
    ...what

    I assume I misunderstood you. Because for neither population nor GDP is that true.

    Removing the top 7 most populous countries (plus removing the UK), the EU would have a population well in excess of the 66 million of the UK. In fact you exceed the threshold before you even get out of the next top 10 nations.

    GDP wise, the UK's GDP as per 2018 was 2,393 billion. Again removing the top 7 other nations, we easily exceed that threshold with the remaining 20. In fact, we once again exceed the UK's nominal GDP within the next 10 nations, never mind the 10 nations after that.

    Can you clarify what you meant?

    Here you go mate

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170410-1

    All roads lead to Rome.



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    #9834
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,330 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Here you go mate

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170410-1
    I think your number is down to 16/27 now mate. Those are the 2016 figures.


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    #9835
    RobMc59
    Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    trellheim wrote: »
    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    It is an English problem requiring an English solution ...

    But it isn't . It's an all-UK problem thats going to affect Ireland for donkeys years to come.
    ...
    Treating Brexit as GB or English only is a catastrophic mistake.

    But Brexit is a problem entirely caused and created by the English in England. More precisely, but the Tory English in England. "Everyone" knows that the referendum was proposed and run for the single purpose of settling a difference of opinion within the Conservative Party, and at a time when that party had next to no significant representation in any of the other three constituent countries. Indeed, even the Labour Party had no significant influence in two of the other three countries.

    Three years post-referendum, Brexit is still and English problem. That the internal Tory wrangling and political incompetenc affects so many other countries (within the Kingdom and beyond) doesn't change the essential nature of Brexit, nor the fact that it needs the English to come up with a solution.

    Incidentally, I had an English Remainer in the house for a few days earlier this week and asked her why she wasn't on the streets protesting. "Too busy trying to make ends meet" was her answer. "But I've signed a lot of petitions". As far as her fellow-remainers were concerned, though, she said a great number of them believe that "no deal" means nothing's going to change, so they too will sign a petition, but don't feel the need to disrupt their routine to go demonstrating.
    You know that the British aren't like the yellow jackets-they've been fed a load of baloney by the brexiteers and have taken it in-people like Johnson who has been shown to be a liar and the public still naively listen to his empty promises of fantastic trade deals and the EU caving in


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    #9836
    Dytalus
    Registered Users Posts: 459 ✭✭Dytalus


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Here you go mate

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20170410-1

    ....you're using percentages. Rather than actual values.

    Okay then.

    Let's update that chart and base it on the 2018 GDP figures and see how it works out in percentages.

    With the UK contributing €2,393.693 billion, into the EU's total of €15,880.247 billion, it accounts for 15.07%. Removing the top 7 contributors for (after excluding the UK) %, this leaves us with 19.2% of the GDP of the EU being contributed by the 20 lowest contributors.

    ...try again?

    EDIT: As a dumb little exercise, I compared the percentage each country contributed to the EU's population vs the GDP it contributed (ie, %GDP contribution / %Pop contribution. There's probably a more accurate mathematical way of doing it than dividing straight percentages, but...it's only meant to be a dumb comparison) and when ranked accordingly the UK comes 10th. In descending order, the top 10 are: Luxembourg, Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Germany, Belgium, and the UK.

    It's probably a piss poor comparison, riddled with errors, but just thought it'd be interesting to see.

    URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union#Wealth"]GDP Source[/URL

    [My Calculations are attached]


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    #9837
    Fionn1952
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Even taking the percentages from that source in 2016, the UK has 16%, the remaining 20, when the UK and top 7 economies are removed comes to 18.4%.


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    #9838
    c_murph
    Registered Users Posts: 40 ✭c_murph


    brickster69 wrote: »
    No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

    Of course, and following your logic along, once the entire globe joins the EU after Albania, that will shrink to 0%.


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    #9839
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭brickster69


    I think the best idea is to start at 16%

    Then start deducting 0.1% for Malta, Estonia & Cyprus Etc. till you come to zero

    All roads lead to Rome.



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    #9840
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,789 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    brickster69 wrote: »
    I think the best idea is to start at 16%

    Then start deducting 0.1% for Malta, Estonia & Cyprus Etc. till you come to zero

    I think the best idea is for you to present reasoned based arguments backed up by current factual information.

    So far today its been one or two liners of what can only be considered as 'The Sun' newspaper hotspots from the mid '90s


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    #9841
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,330 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    brickster69 wrote: »
    I think the best idea is to start at 16%

    Then start deducting 0.1% for Malta, Estonia & Cyprus Etc. till you come to zero
    If you're picking a number to start from, why not 15.1%? Because that's the most recent figure. You'll find you'll get to zero quicker.


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