Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut · 15-08-2019 5:43pm

Strazdas wrote: »

It sounds very complicated and theoretical.

Sinn Fein should stand aside if there is an election.
No way can it be squared that facilitating a hard little englander Tory brexit is anything but anathema to Nationalists in Northern Ireland.

Valhallapt · 15-08-2019 5:56pm

20silkcut wrote: »

Sinn Fein should stand aside if there is an election.
No way can it be squared that facilitating a hard little englander Tory brexit is anything but anathema to Nationalists in Northern Ireland.

But the simple truth is a crash out Brexit puts a border poll to the top of the agenda.

pixelburp · 15-08-2019 6:03pm

BTW, random aside / conversational grenade, from something that has bugged me the last couple 'o days, and hoping folks here with greater ears to the ground might share.

Where's Gibraltar ending up in all this mess?

For a hot second, the status of that rock was in the news alongside Northern Ireland, yet seems to have become completely overshadowed and forgotten.

I've no knowledge if a deal or agreement was ever hit upon: does the original WA have any provisions for what happens there, or is it another can being kicked down the road? Heck are Spain simply biding their time until about 30 minutes after the Irish issue is sorted? Seems like they certainly have no intention of dropping that subject, yet nobody across the pond appears to be talking about it.

briany · 15-08-2019 6:03pm

20silkcut wrote: »

Sinn Fein should stand aside if there is an election.
No way can it be squared that facilitating a hard little englander Tory brexit is anything but anathema to Nationalists in Northern Ireland.

The cynic in me says that the parties are going to play party politics to the very end of Brexit, and then all the parties will individually point the finger of blame at all the other parties. You'll get a smattering of more idealistic individuals, some of whom have already stepped forward, who'll be willing to fall on their swords, but the rest don't really care about anything except job security.

20silkcut · 15-08-2019 6:10pm

Valhallapt wrote: »

But the simple truth is a crash out Brexit puts a border poll to the top of the agenda.

Personally myself and I’m sure many of you here, would rather things remain as they are than a United ireland in the immediate term. I want a United ireland under the terms of the GFA not because of an economic catastrophe. If Sinn Feins abstentionism was critical in a hard brexit I’d think twice about voting for a United ireland as a protest against their agenda. That’s for sure.

Podge_irl · 15-08-2019 6:13pm

pixelburp wrote: »

BTW, random aside / conversational grenade, from something that has bugged me the last couple 'o days, and hoping folks here with greater ears to the ground might share.

Where's Gibraltar ending up in all this mess?

For a hot second, the status of that rock was in the news alongside Northern Ireland, yet seems to have become completely overshadowed and forgotten.

I've no knowledge if a deal or agreement was ever hit upon: does the original WA have any provisions for what happens there, or is it another can being kicked down the road? Heck are Spain simply biding their time until about 30 minutes after the Irish issue is sorted? Seems like they certainly have no intention of dropping that subject, yet nobody across the pond appears to be talking about it.

It is basically just due to continue as is right? It is not in Schengen or Customs Union as it is. Spain have been pretty clear that if the WA is re-opened that they want it discussed though.

Call me Al · 15-08-2019 6:19pm

fly_agaric wrote: »

I'm not in the UK/don't have very close connections and it is a while ago now but my memory (?) was Corbyn was very weak campaigning in the referendum and left it to the more "neoliberal" Labour people. At least that was who I was seeing in the news speaking up for voting "remain" back then.

In General election he seemed very well able to campaign, suggesting maybe his heart wasn't in it when it comes to EU membership.
......

I would agree, as would Labour MP and remain-supporter Phil Wilson in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/26/corbyn-must-resign-inadequate-leader-betrayal#comments

BonnieSituation · 15-08-2019 6:20pm

20silkcut wrote: »

Personally myself and I’m sure many of you here, would rather things remain as they are than a United ireland in the immediate term. I want a United ireland under the terms of the GFA not because of an economic catastrophe. If Sinn Feins abstentionism was critical in a hard brexit I’d think twice about voting for a United ireland as a protest against their agenda. That’s for sure.

You'd vote against a UI out of spite? You do know that the prospect of a UI is NOT SF's gift alone. It is not "theirs".

A UI can ONLY come about under the auspices of the GFA. Brexit is only hastening that likelihood. Just because you would rather it be later than sooner doesn't mean it's not gonna happen "legally" or outside of the process.

I think you should familiarise yourself with the terms of the GFA tbh.

A Dub in Glasgo · 15-08-2019 6:27pm

Swinson is shown up for what she really is - a Tory in Lib Dem clothing. She seems to forget that it is the leader of the opposition who has a try after a VoNC, not the leader of a very small party in the HoC

20silkcut · 15-08-2019 6:39pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You'd vote against a UI out of spite? You do know that the prospect of a UI is NOT SF's gift alone. It is not "theirs".

A UI can ONLY come about under the auspices of the GFA. Brexit is only hastening that likelihood. Just because you would rather it be later than sooner doesn't mean it's not gonna happen "legally" or outside of the process.

I think you should familiarise yourself with the terms of the GFA tbh.

Brexit is going to fracture the relationships between these islands and increase the likelihood of violence in the future. It is in Sinn feins gift to allow nationalists in Northen Ireland a voice in this process. If it’s the case that those nationalists don’t want a say or don’t want to halt the madness then that is incredibly difficult to understand and I don’t agree with that position. On the one hand railing against a hard brexit and then wasting their votes that could stop it. Someone needs to explain that mindset to me. I don’t have the finest mind in the world I don’t get it.
The situation we have now is better than a hard brexit with a border down the sea and a United ireland is it not ??
I’m sure I’ll be accused of having a partitionist mindset but have we not currently got full trade with Northern Ireland and mainland UK and the entire of the EU. It does not get any better than that. Sinn Fein should be fully behind protecting that if they really are wearing the green jersey. If they are not then they are on a different side of the argument to me and I wouldn’t be too cock a hoop about re-uniting with them and that narrow short sighted mindset.

prawnsambo · 15-08-2019 7:02pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Swinson is shown up for what she really is - a Tory in Lib Dem clothing. She seems to forget that it is the leader of the opposition who has a try after a VoNC, not the leader of a very small party in the HoC

She has ruled herself out as well.

cml387 · 15-08-2019 7:59pm

I don't think it's been mentioned previously, if so apologies, but UKIP have a new leader.

His name is Richard Braine, but his first name is often shortened to the more possibly suitable "Dick".

swampgas · 15-08-2019 8:13pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

It is basically just due to continue as is right? It is not in Schengen or Customs Union as it is. Spain have been pretty clear that if the WA is re-opened that they want it discussed though.

I can't see how that could happen. Gibraltar is a bit like NI, a hard no-deal Brexit would mean an external EU border between it and Spain. And that means customs/tarriffs, regulatory checks, the full deal. As far as I understand it anyway.

Spain is in Shengen too, but I have no idea if that complicates or simplifies matters.

robinph · 15-08-2019 8:23pm

swampgas wrote: »

Podge_irl wrote: »

It is basically just due to continue as is right? It is not in Schengen or Customs Union as it is. Spain have been pretty clear that if the WA is re-opened that they want it discussed though.

I can't see how that could happen. Gibraltar is a bit like NI, a hard no-deal Brexit would mean an external EU border between it and Spain. And that means customs/tarriffs, regulatory checks, the full deal. As far as I understand it anyway.

Spain is in Shengen too, but I have no idea if that complicates or simplifies matters.

The difference with Gibraltar though is that nobody who lives there wants to be Spanish, and nobody in Spain wants the residents of Gibraltar to be Spanish either, they just want the land and the sea that comes with it.

Not sure who wants the monkeys.

BluePlanet · 15-08-2019 8:45pm

20silkcut wrote: »

Brexit is going to fracture the relationships between these islands and increase the likelihood of violence in the future. It is in Sinn feins gift to allow nationalists in Northen Ireland a voice in this process. If it’s the case that those nationalists don’t want a say or don’t want to halt the madness then that is incredibly difficult to understand and I don’t agree with that position. On the one hand railing against a hard brexit and then wasting their votes that could stop it. Someone needs to explain that mindset to me. I don’t have the finest mind in the world I don’t get it.
The situation we have now is better than a hard brexit with a border down the sea and a United ireland is it not ??
I’m sure I’ll be accused of having a partitionist mindset but have we not currently got full trade with Northern Ireland and mainland UK and the entire of the EU. It does not get any better than that. Sinn Fein should be fully behind protecting that if they really are wearing the green jersey. If they are not then they are on a different side of the argument to me and I wouldn’t be too cock a hoop about re-uniting with them and that narrow short sighted mindset.

Sinn Fein cannot stop Brexit nor a No Deal one.
Fintan O'Toole's idea is really creative and kudos to him for that, but it requires massive coordination and parlimentary acrobatics the like we have never seen.
To present this rather far-fetched plan as realistic in any way, is a stretch.

FrancieBrady · 15-08-2019 8:48pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

Sinn Fein cannot stop Brexit nor a No Deal one.
Fintan O'Toole's idea is really creative and kudos to him for that, but it requires massive coordination and parlimentary acrobatics the like we have never seen.
To present this rather far-fetched plan as realistic in any way, is a stretch.

And it only gets a paralysed and chaotic parliament over one hurdle of many.

It really is a crisis for the UK (I would narrow it to Britain actually) to sort out...nobody else.

maynooth_rules · 15-08-2019 8:52pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Swinson is shown up for what she really is - a Tory in Lib Dem clothing. She seems to forget that it is the leader of the opposition who has a try after a VoNC, not the leader of a very small party in the HoC

Corbyn is toxic. Swinson hasn't said no to the suggestion, but she rightly knows that Corbyn is just poison for wavering Conservative voters that they will hope to get in the soon to be held GE. Corbyn has bluffed and sat on the fence with Brexit for so long that he has shot himself in the foot and will never be an acceptable PM

PropJoe10 · 15-08-2019 8:53pm

Just thought I might post this here, which I think is a pretty exceptional speech on Brexit and Britain's place in Europe by Kenneth Clarke to the Commons back in 2017. Well worth the 16 minutes. Refreshing to listen to a British politician with some actual sense and political acumen.

BluePlanet · 15-08-2019 8:55pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And it only gets a paralysed and chaotic parliament over one hurdle of many.

It really is a crisis for the UK (I would narrow it to Britain actually) to sort out...nobody else.

Yes exactly.
The UK bought Brexit, they own it, they turned it into a sh**t sandwich and will have to take a big bite.
Unfortunately we are downwind of them and will get hit with some of that blow back.

But for SF to even try and prevent the "will of the people" there, would probably result in more damage to the UK and GFA.

axer · 15-08-2019 9:30pm

Surely its now also too late to replace corbyn now also especially with a snap election that could be called any minute. It's got to be no deal next unless somehow corbyn agrees to Ken Clarke or someone like that but can't see that happening. He really really wants to be PM. It's impossible to know what will happen though given the twists and turns so far. Interesting times ahead.

BonnieSituation · 15-08-2019 9:34pm

20silkcut wrote: »

Brexit is going to fracture the relationships between these islands and increase the likelihood of violence in the future. It is in Sinn feins gift to allow nationalists in Northen Ireland a voice in this process. If it’s the case that those nationalists don’t want a say or don’t want to halt the madness then that is incredibly difficult to understand and I don’t agree with that position. On the one hand railing against a hard brexit and then wasting their votes that could stop it. Someone needs to explain that mindset to me. I don’t have the finest mind in the world I don’t get it.
The situation we have now is better than a hard brexit with a border down the sea and a United ireland is it not ??
I’m sure I’ll be accused of having a partitionist mindset but have we not currently got full trade with Northern Ireland and mainland UK and the entire of the EU. It does not get any better than that. Sinn Fein should be fully behind protecting that if they really are wearing the green jersey. If they are not then they are on a different side of the argument to me and I wouldn’t be too cock a hoop about re-uniting with them and that narrow short sighted mindset.

So SF are responsible for the fractured relationships on these islands?

Nationalists have a voice in the process. They vote for SF "BECAUSE" of their abstentionist policy. That IS their voice. Why does this need to be repeated ad nauseam?

How is their vote wasted? Are you saying you know better?

The mindset is very simple. Lots of Nationalists in the north vote for SF. SF not taking their seats in Westminster is part of the reason that they vote for SF. If SF were to stand down or take the Oath they would destroy themselves.

Lots of Nationalists see Brexit as something that will bring a UI closer. Why get involved in a purely English clusterfúck? Have you not seen just how much Scotland have been sidelined? What makes you think that SF's 7 votes are gonna help anything? They will not get to use those votes in a vacuum.

You would not be too cock-a-hoop with reuniting with them? Who are "they"?

Lose the patronising attitude and brush up on the nuance in play here.

Britain has made this mess. It's not up to Ireland or Irish nationalism to help them fix it.

Joe_ Public · 15-08-2019 9:43pm

"This isn't about personalities," Jo Swinson said in her speech. Could have fooled me, to be honest. She's made herself look very petty and foolish today imo. Maybe Corbyn isn't the person to lead that emergency government or whatever its called (i resist the national unity term on the basis it is hardly likely to have many brexiteers in it), but to instantly dismiss it was wrong. None of the conservative MPs who were written have done so afaik, some of them seem willing to meet the LOTO and actually discuss it.

I know it's very easy to dump on Corbyn and his apparent brexit ambivalence, but i personally dont see why Swinson and the Lib Dems should get a free pass purely on the basis they have an uncomplicated remain position. Look how she prevaricates whenever it's put to her about accepting another leave vote in a second referendum. I'm not sure how you can begin to talk about "unity" when that is your position, however weak and unprincipled you think Corbyns play-both-sides strategy might be.

Podge_irl · 15-08-2019 9:49pm

swampgas wrote: »

I can't see how that could happen. Gibraltar is a bit like NI, a hard no-deal Brexit would mean an external EU border between it and Spain. And that means customs/tarriffs, regulatory checks, the full deal. As far as I understand it anyway.

Spain is in Shengen too, but I have no idea if that complicates or simplifies matters.

Gibraltar isn't in Schengen or the Customs Union as things stand so there are already full border checks.

Capt'n Midnight · 15-08-2019 9:51pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

Gibraltar isn't in Schengen or the Customs Union as things stand so there are already full border checks.

Smuggling cigarettes used to be a big thing.

Bet365 moved a lot of jobs to Malta earlier in the year. Online gambling and gaming is a big thing that won't be so big if there isn't access to EU markets.

trellheim · 15-08-2019 9:52pm

Lots of Nationalists see Brexit as something that will bring a UI closer. Why get involved in a purely English clusterfúck?

Brexit may well do the opposite and make it worse for NI

The real issue I have is your second point - How on earth is it purely English ? NI is part of the UK as I am sure you know better than I , but pretending its nothing to do with NI is wrong in my view.

prawnsambo · 15-08-2019 10:01pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

"This isn't about personalities," Jo Swinson said in her speech. Could have fooled me, to be honest. She's made herself look very petty and foolish today imo. Maybe Corbyn isn't the person to lead that emergency government or whatever its called (i resist the national unity term on the basis it is hardly likely to have many brexiteers in it), but to instantly dismiss it was wrong. None of the conservative MPs who were written have done so afaik, some of them seem willing to meet the LOTO and actually discuss it.

I know it's very easy to dump on Corbyn and his apparent brexit ambivalence, but i personally dont see why Swinson and the Lib Dems should get a free pass purely on the basis they have an uncomplicated remain position. Look how she prevaricates whenever it's put to her about accepting another leave vote in a second referendum. I'm not sure how you can begin to talk about "unity" when that is your position, however weak and unprincipled you think Corbyns play-both-sides strategy might be.

I expect she's getting up the noses of Labour supporters because of the resurgence of the LibDems, precisely because they have a clear and unambiguous policy on brexit and Labour have missed that boat due to excessive fence sitting.

Water John · 15-08-2019 10:02pm

Swinson simply has stated the obvious, that Tory MPs who may be willing to support a VONC in Johnson will not support Corbyn as a caretaker PM.
Not sure why she's getting so much grief for this.
There is no point to the VONC unless an alternative PM can be put in place. A VONC on its own allows Johnson to stay as acting PM and call the GE at the time of his choosing.

Stop moaning ffs · 15-08-2019 10:15pm

SF have their goal in sight. No way will they submit to some plan no matter how well contrived, even though the same cross party pacts are going to happen in Britain in terms of parties/candidates stepping aside to allow an agreed candidate win the seat. I would welcome it if they did but it won’t happen.

prawnsambo · 15-08-2019 10:17pm

Ante gets upped. Farage could only dream of being this brexity.

54and56 · 15-08-2019 10:31pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Ante gets upped. Farage could only dream of being this brexity.

I don't understand what this means

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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