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Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

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    #1382
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Kidchameleon wrote:
    When did I say I was confident? He is simply better than his predecessor. As I have already stated he would not be my first choice for PM. TMay would be my last choice though - too agreeable


    I'd agree Boris could be more persuasive than May. That could help but the people he needs to persuade are in Westminster, not Brussels.


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    #1383
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Kidchameleon wrote: »
    She was responsible for getting the best deal for her people and she was too weak for the big boys. Borris has them worried.

    He deal he voted in favour of and was put together by his current Foreign Secretary?


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    #1384
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,348 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    How do you know? Has he achieved Brexit yet? Is he any closer than May was?

    Boris is playing a very simple game with bin the backstop. Three possibilities.

    EU cave in? Bingo, I’ve shown them, general election, Conservative majority.

    West minister stop no-deal exit? Bingo, they are stopping me from leaving, general election, Conservative majority, new deal with border down the Irish Sea, promise of no border poll while in government to appease backbenchers worried about the Union

    No-deal happens? This is the trickiest. Rock and a hard place. May’s weakness and Labour sympathisers on our backbench put us here. EU, nasty foreigners being mean. Strong government needed in this crisis. General election, but less certainty about a conservative majority.


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    #1385
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Boris is playing a very simple game with bin the backstop. Three possibilities.

    EU cave in? Bingo, I’ve shown them, general election, Conservative majority.

    West minister stop no-deal exit? Bingo, they are stopping me from leaving, general election, Conservative majority, new deal with border down the Irish Sea, promise of no border poll while in government to appease backbenchers worried about the Union

    No-deal happens? This is the trickiest. Rock and a hard place. May’s weakness and Labour sympathisers on our backbench put us here. EU, nasty foreigners being mean. Strong government needed in this crisis. General election, but less certainty about a conservative majority.

    Good post. I think the second one is most likely.


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    #1386
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,124 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Boris is playing a very simple game with bin the backstop. Three possibilities.

    EU cave in? Bingo, I’ve shown them, general election, Conservative majority.

    West minister stop no-deal exit? Bingo, they are stopping me from leaving, general election, Conservative majority, new deal with border down the Irish Sea, promise of no border poll while in government to appease backbenchers worried about the Union

    No-deal happens? This is the trickiest. Rock and a hard place. May’s weakness and Labour sympathisers on our backbench put us here. EU, nasty foreigners being mean. Strong government needed in this crisis. General election, but less certainty about a conservative majority.

    Succinct and probably accurate. An addition is to include the Brexit party seats in Conservative majority. They say they wouldn't go into coalition, but shur...

    And the only reason anyone cares about the backstop is the DUP role in the current government. If they didn't need the DUP they would drop opposition to the backstop like a snot rocket.


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    #1387
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,668 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Boris is playing a very simple game with bin the backstop. Three possibilities.

    EU cave in? Bingo, I’ve shown them, general election, Conservative majority.

    West minister stop no-deal exit? Bingo, they are stopping me from leaving, general election, Conservative majority, new deal with border down the Irish Sea, promise of no border poll while in government to appease backbenchers worried about the Union

    No-deal happens? This is the trickiest. Rock and a hard place. May’s weakness and Labour sympathisers on our backbench put us here. EU, nasty foreigners being mean. Strong government needed in this crisis. General election, but less certainty about a conservative majority.

    He has achieved nothing yet though.


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    #1388
    Kidchameleon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Kidchameleon


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    How do you know? Has he achieved Brexit yet? Is he any closer than May was?

    He cant acheive Brexit until 31st October thanks to May. And yes, he is closer to Brexit than May ever was. She never wanted it and tried at every stage to sabotage her peoples wishes


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    #1389
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,668 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Kidchameleon wrote: »
    He cant acheive Brexit until 31st October thanks to May. And yes, he is closer to Brexit than May ever was. She never wanted it and tried at every stage to sabotage her peoples wishes

    May had Brexit until the DUP stuck their oar in. Boris has done sweet FA about that predicament.

    He is no closer than May is, although he talks a good bit more.


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    #1390
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,124 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    FrancieBrady wrote: »

    He is no closer than May is, although he talks a good bit more.

    Don't underestimate the influence of his talking a good bit more. Lots of people expect him to be better for no reason other than he said he would be better. It's the oldest trick imaginable. Jury say what people want to hear and do it with a bit of flair. You'd be shocked at how many people fall for it over and over again throughout their lives and throughout history. It doesn't stop working.

    Whether it will have any effect in the negotiations is a different matter. He will ultimately face the people with flair and plenty of chat, telling them it's a great deal. Those who want to believe him, will do so.


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    #1391
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Kidchameleon wrote: »
    He cant acheive Brexit until 31st October thanks to May. And yes, he is closer to Brexit than May ever was. She never wanted it and tried at every stage to sabotage her peoples wishes

    He can leave anytime he wants.

    Nobody is forcing him to stay until the 31st of October.


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    #1392
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,124 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Faugheen wrote: »
    He can leave anytime he wants.

    Nobody is forcing him to stay until the 31st of October.

    As many times as people say that, and it remains true, it won't happen. It's also true that you could cut your dick off at any time you want or steer into oncoming traffic while driving at any time you want. Sure, He could leave before the deadline. But it's so unlikely its not really worth mentioning because the last couple of days before the deadline are the only time that matter between now and then. The interim is just soap opera.

    I really wish we could stop repeating that he could leave any time he wants.


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    #1393
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,668 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    As many times as people say that, and it remains true, it won't happen. It's also true that you could cut your dick off at any time you want or steer into oncoming traffic while driving at any time you want. Sure, He could leave before the deadline. But it's so unlikely its not really worth mentioning because the last couple of days before the deadline are the only time that matter between now and then. The interim is just soap opera.

    I really wish we could stop repeating that he could leave any time he wants.

    We have had 'deadlines' come and go already and the EU have not changed their position.


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    #1394
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    As many times as people say that, and it remains true, it won't happen. It's also true that you could cut your dick off at any time you want or steer into oncoming traffic while driving at any time you want. Sure, He could leave before the deadline. But it's so unlikely its not really worth mentioning because the last couple of days before the deadline are the only time that matter between now and then. The interim is just soap opera.

    I really wish we could stop repeating that he could leave any time he wants.

    Well when a poster says he can't do anything until October 31st I like to let them know that this isn't the case.


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    #1395
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,284 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Faugheen wrote: »
    Well when a poster says he can't do anything until October 31st I like to let them know that this isn't the case.
    The more important point, perhaps, is that he can decide at any time that the UK will leave without a deal, and he doesn't need to do anything to make this happen; he just has to wait while the clock ticks. It's those who don't want the UK to leave without a deal who need to positively do something, and who have very limited time in which to do it.


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    #1396
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    The more important point, perhaps, is that he can decide at any time that the UK will leave without a deal, and he doesn't need to do anything to make this happen; he just has to wait while the clock ticks. It's those who don't want the UK to leave without a deal who need to positively do something, and who have very limited time in which to do it.


    I think the EU wants them to stay or leave without a deal.


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    #1397
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,284 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    ILoveYourVibes wrote: »
    I think the EU wants them to stay or leave without a deal.
    The EU may once have wanted the UK to stay, but never (since the referendum) saw that as a likely outcome and never tried to position itself to make that happen. That would be wrong in principle and, anyway, it would involve jeopardising attainable objectives in a pointless quest for unattainable ones.

    For quites some time now, I think the EU has not wanted the UK to stay. The point is academic, since the UK is not seeking to stay and does not seem likely to. But, if it were to, I think the EU would have very mixed feelings about that.

    If the UK is to leave, the EU would very much prefer them to leave with a deal, since leaving has many adverse consequences for the EU which can be mitigated with a deal. But they don't want the UK to leave with any deal; just with a deal which does, in fact, mitigage adverse consequences. For the EU, no deal really is better than a bad deal.

    The EU hasn't entirely abandoned hope that the UK will agree a deal, but the UK's current positioning makes it very difficult. The dominant feeling in the EU at the moment is that a beneficial deal won't be possible unless and until the UK changes its position.

    The EU stands ready to agree a deal if the UK position shifts to one which allow a beneficial deal to be agreed. This could happen either before Brexit (in which case the deal would be a Withdrawal Agreement) or after (in which case it would be a Future Relationship Agreement/Association Agreement/something of that kind) but, realistically, as the EU sees it, after Brexit is looking more likely, given Johnson's choice to position himself in a way that makes a Withdrawal Agreement impossible, and given their judgment that it is politically very difficult for Johnson to resile from that position.

    Tl;dr: Brussels thinks Johnson is committed to a no-deal Brexit. Brussels isn't going to waste political capital trying to get him to change his mind.


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    #1398
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Good post Peregrinus.

    Many posters here are still looking at this from the perspective of the UK's political situation.

    The EU has moved well past that. There is a withdrawl agreement on the table and there won't be another one. The EU will be ready for whichever way the UK goes.

    Nobody expects perfection here; Brexit is a pain in the ass. Pragmatism rules.


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    #1399
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,124 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Faugheen wrote: »
    Well when a poster says he can't do anything until October 31st I like to let them know that this isn't the case.

    Sure. He could do lot of things. Like cut his dick off or steer I to oncoming traffic or leave without waiting for the negotiating window in th few days leading up to the deadline. So in the Context of this conversation he can't do anything until the few days before October 31.

    But the other point is that he IS doing exactly what he can. Which is to while away the time until the last few days before the deadline and make clear that he is willing to leave without a deal. And if you cut out all the soap opera, that's all he's done.


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    #1400
    Kidchameleon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Kidchameleon


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    May had Brexit until the DUP stuck their oar in. Boris has done sweet FA about that predicament.

    He is no closer than May is, although he talks a good bit more.

    How long has he been in the job compared to May? As a fraction? They should never have let a weak woman lead the negociations. What a mess


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    #1401
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,668 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Kidchameleon wrote: »
    How long has he been in the job compared to May? As a fraction? They should never have let a weak woman lead the negociations. What a mess

    The EU have answered Boris...they are not re-opening the WA or getting rid of the backstop.

    Has he gone yet? Nope.

    No better, no worse than May.


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    #1402
    First Up
    Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    FrancieBrady wrote:
    No better, no worse than May.

    He can use his famous charm to persuade the Tory party see sense.

    That's all.


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    #1403
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,668 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    First Up wrote: »
    He can use his famous charm to persuade the Tory party see sense.

    That's all.

    Yeh, he really seems to be trying. Seen his cabinet? :)

    Boris is on a personal mission, the UK's future is Boris's future.


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    #1404
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,264 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Kidchameleon wrote: »
    How long has he been in the job compared to May? As a fraction? They should never have let a weak woman lead the negociations. What a mess
    What has May being a woman got to do with anything?
    As for her weakness, she managed to get the current PM and many of the current cabinet to vote for the WA. Not too weak so?


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    #1405
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,348 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    The EU have answered Boris...they are not re-opening the WA or getting rid of the backstop.

    Has he gone yet? Nope.

    No better, no worse than May.


    I remember Mildred Fox (I think it was her) being asked for her views on abortion during her first campaign to be elected as a TD. Her reply was that she wasn't campaigning on that. She didn't give a view.

    It doesn't matter to Boris what the EU say or do. He is playing on a different pitch and with different aims. Don't expect rationality, just expect him to push hard for his objective - becoming a Prime Minister with an overall majority.

    blanch152 wrote: »
    Boris is playing a very simple game with bin the backstop. Three possibilities.

    EU cave in? Bingo, I’ve shown them, general election, Conservative majority.

    West minister stop no-deal exit? Bingo, they are stopping me from leaving, general election, Conservative majority, new deal with border down the Irish Sea, promise of no border poll while in government to appease backbenchers worried about the Union

    No-deal happens? This is the trickiest. Rock and a hard place. May’s weakness and Labour sympathisers on our backbench put us here. EU, nasty foreigners being mean. Strong government needed in this crisis. General election, but less certainty about a conservative majority.


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    #1406
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,668 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I remember Mildred Fox (I think it was her) being asked for her views on abortion during her first campaign to be elected as a TD. Her reply was that she wasn't campaigning on that. She didn't give a view.

    It doesn't matter to Boris what the EU say or do. He is playing on a different pitch and with different aims. Don't expect rationality, just expect him to push hard for his objective - becoming a Prime Minister with an overall majority.

    Boris has achieved nothing yet.

    I actually think his, and the elite Brexit crowd's ultimate goal here is an independent England but they cannot be seen to be destroying the UK.

    We will see.


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    #1407
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    As Blanch152 says all Borris is interested in is an overall majority. That is his short term goal, all his actions have to be viewed with that consideration. He is trying to make sure he gains enough from the UKIPs and hard Brexit crowd to get in the driving seat and not to be depending on the DUP or their like. Once he achieves that he will then have to deal with the EU, he can ditch that cabinate he has and bring in some more realistic types. Borris is about Borris and staying in power.


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    #1408
    Voltex
    Registered Users Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭Voltex


    I cant help but wonder what the real influence is of Dominic Cummings on Boris's strategy? By all accounts, he's the most powerful, non-elected individual in the British Government at the moment....


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    #1409
    Kidchameleon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Kidchameleon


    Voltex wrote: »
    I cant help but wonder what the real influence is of Dominic Cummings on Boris's strategy? By all accounts, he's the most powerful, non-elected individual in the British Government at the moment....

    A bit like them lads in the European Commission


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    #1410
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Voltex wrote: »
    I cant help but wonder what the real influence is of Dominic Cummings on Boris's strategy? By all accounts, he's the most powerful, non-elected individual in the British Government at the moment....


    I wonder do Mi5 or 6 have an eye on him having lived in Russia for 3 years. Or maybe he was an employee when he was in Russia.


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    #1411
    dasdog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,554 ✭✭✭dasdog


    The most disconcerting thing from a UK perspective - the leadership are absolute amateurs. The UK economy contracted -0.2% in Q2 and the UK finance minister stated the GDP fall reflects volatility in the data. No it doesn't. Data is data. To borrow from that great British phrase, you are talking bollocks. Sterling is hitting 2009 lows against the Euro at market close this evening.


This discussion has been closed.
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