Summer 2019 - General Discussion

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Nice, flying up or driving? I'd invite you for a cup of tea but I'm off to France in the morning

Let me know though if you're looking for any tips on where to go

Driving and no problem at all, well deserved to be honest. Enjoy!

Yeah, some recommendations would be good. I have some ideas like Malin Head, Mount Errigal, Clonmany and Glenveagh National Park. Haven't been up here in a very long time.

Gonzo wrote: »

The models look very unsettled for the next 3 to 4 weeks, typical August Autumn style weather with the Atlantic firmly back in charge.

Subtle hints from teleconnections of the weather settling down later in August and going into September, just in time for the kids going back to school as per usual. Only subtle for now but there nevertheless.

amadangomor wrote: »

Just shows that the early part of the summer wasn't so bad when you see now how rubbish an Irish summer can actually get!

Has August become a solidly mediocre month in terms of Summer weather? Probably my memory but can't recall a good one in recent years

There has been a notable shift in August weather since 2006. After the very warm June and hot July in 2006, August completely deteriorated that year with a -NAO setting in. It was a significant change on July with much cooler and wetter conditions although these being more notable for other parts of western Europe as parts of Ireland didn't have it too bad. However, the main interest here is the fact that a -NAO set in which was the exception rather than the norm in Augusts from 1989 to 2005 (a period of several exceptional Augusts like 1990, 1995, 1997 and 2003). Whilst it's not just August that has seen an increase in -NAO since 2006 with many months since Summer 2007 from all seasons seeing -NAO, August has seen the most impacts from -NAO.

I did a little analysis recently on Twitter on comparing Augusts 1994-2005 to 2006-2018. I first did this using Central England Temperature (CET) max and CET min data. There was an interesting run of consecutive Augusts with a CET mean max at 20.0c or more from 1994 to 2005 but since, we have seen a reduction though improving somewhat again recently. CET mean min has remained rather stationary, not much change compared to the 90s/00s.





The contrast is greatly shown by reanalysis with Augusts in the 1994-2005 period tending to be anticyclonic or blocking over Scandinavia and favouring easterly winds. If we take 1995 out (the exceptional hot and dry August), the Scandi High signal increases a lot.




Augusts in the period 2006-2018 have tended to be much more unsettled with little signal of the Scandi High from the previous period. Anomalous below average heights over top of the UK and Ireland with a bit of Greenland blocking too. No wonder why August has been poor!





Whether this is the result of low solar activity giving a higher risk of -NAO or Arctic amplification helping the blocking and it just happened to be occurring in August is unknown. Maybe a coincidence for all we know as some decades favour certain weather for a month of the year like the 1940s with warm Aprils and cold Januaries, 1960s with cold Decembers or 1980s with mild Decembers, 1990s with warm Augusts etc. Contrast to Julys which have tended to be warm this decade, 2010 (even if very wet), 2013, 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2019.

We often hear that summers aren't as great as they used to be. Well as many on here would have experienced the Augusts of the 90s and the 80s to a lesser extent (considering Augusts 1985 and 1986 were exceptionally poor) when they were younger, maybe this saying holds some light here?