Summer 2019 - General Discussion

sryanbruen

Ah... Summer 2019. Now what will you bring? Will you be a 2012? Will you be a 1995? Will you be a 2005? Will you be a 1985? Well if we knew, there'd be no fun in that!

To start off this thread, I will be giving my final analogues for Summer 2019 and these will be considered for the forecast that I will do very shortly. Unlike previous analogues, I have made strict scoring for these ones because so many years have appeared for 5 or more elements so years must have at least 8 or more elements to be considered for these analogues.

Out of these years, there is Summer 1995, Summer 1990, Summer 2017, Summer 1989 and Summer 1997. Summer 1995 was the highest scoring year with a total of 11 elements.

The June 2019 analogue I have generated using the years above shows below average heights over much of Europe and going through the UK/Ireland with above average heights from eastern Greenland over towards Scandinavia. This looks like a cool and unsettled setup. Yes, there's a Scandi High which could threaten warmer easterly or southeasterly winds and with the below average heights could result in some thundery moments. However, the below average heights are well in on Ireland and with blocking to the north, this only leaves us pulling in a cool west to northwesterly flow.



The July 2019 analogue does a complete flip on June with a very strong signal for above average heights to sit over Ireland. The jet stream is being pushed to the north with below average heights parked over Greenland. This looks like a very warm and dry scenario, maybe even hot. Wind direction would be variable. Looks similar to July 2013.



The August 2019 analogue looks similar to July with above average heights ridging through Ireland but its centre is a bit further eastwards, allowing the air to come from a southeasterly direction. The jet stream looks a bit closer to Ireland which could threaten relatively cloudier and wetter conditions to the northwest but overall, looks like another dry and very warm scenario, maybe even hot again. Would result in the hottest August since at least 2003 I would have thought, though is that really saying much?



The Summer 2019 analogue (for the Summer as a whole) looks anticyclonic with above average heights well in truly over Ireland indicative of high pressure, despite a cool and unsettled June.



Do I think the analogues have got it right though? Find out shortly.

sryanbruen

So going by the above analogues, you would think Summer 2019 will be warmer and drier than average after a mixed June. As high pressure would be a strong influence with temperatures above average through July and August, there would be some concerns of returning to drought conditions.

Do I think highly of these analogues? Kind of yes. The June analogue has some similarities to the outlook for early June 2019 in the medium range right now, as the -NAO is not expected to go away any time soon making it difficult for warmer conditions to occur especially for Ireland. The most recent cooler than average June was 2015 so I think we're due one. I think July has a fair chance of verifying with warmer and drier conditions. Consecutive warm or hot Julys historically aren't too unusual - like 1975/76, 1983/84, 1989-91, 1995/96, 2005/06, 2013/14. I think August has a good chance of verifying too provided the atmosphere remains stable and something unique or a disturbance does not occur, like a sudden change in ENSO or the North Atlantic SST profile intensifying to favour -NAO for example. This is the same with July to some extent too.

Models are all extremely mixed for Summer 2019 so they offer very little help for the forecast.

There is almost a tripole developed through May in the North Atlantic which is an important indicator for Winter, not so much for Summer. But I wonder if this could have an impact on the Summer as it favours -NAO which in Summer usually results in cool and wet conditions (not always as positioning of blocking differs every time). The infamous Summers from 2007 to 2012 all had -NAO, although only one year had a visible tripole in the North Atlantic during May - 2010. In Spring 2018, a horseshoe shape of cold SST anomalies had developed in the North Atlantic Ocean which was theorised to increase the chance of a strong Azores High through Summer 2018 and thus increase the risk of a hot season. This was indeed the case and there was record breaking +NAO, unprecedented even in recorded history. However, after researching for Summer 2019 and using the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic through May 2019, I'm not so sure on this theory as Mays 1992 and 1993 had a very similar profile (as did May 1976 which I used as a primary baseline for Summer 2018) to May 2018. I could not find a great match to May 2019 in the archive in terms of North Atlantic SSTs but closest matches I could get were May 1954, May 1980, May 1995, May 1997, May 2002, May 2003 and May 2004. Quite a mix of summers here! Summer 1954, 1980 and 2002 were all very dull and the latter was relatively warm (due to August, whilst June and July were quite cool) and wet. Summer 1997 had a poor June, a mild/warm and mostly dry July, a hot and exceptionally wet August in the south. Summer 2003 had a hot August - June and July were also warm but thundery. Summer 2004 had a warm June, cool and unsettled July and a very warm but wet August. I don't think I need to say Summer 1995 which was a drought summer. Notice that 5 of the 7 years here had warm or hot Augusts whilst two (1995 and 2003) were very dry and two (1997 and 2004) were very wet, the other (2002) was quite dry but not exceptionally so. In contrast, Summers 1954 and 1980 were among the poorest of the 20th century.

ENSO is expected to neutralise this summer which in theory should have little impact but sudden changes in oceanic or atmospheric behaviour could give major impacts on the season especially later, and this forecast could go as a bust.

So, overall I am going to go for a warmer than average summer but no 2018. The only way I can see us getting close to or beating 2018 would be if my analogue charts for July and August were to verify exactly as shown above which especially for July are extreme scenarios so unlikely. I think the summer will get off to a slow start but improve as the season goes on, compared to Summer 2018 which started off very high and got more and more benign. It's not too often that a very warm/dry July AND August occur simultaneously (for example, 1955, 1976, 1983, 1990, 1995) in Ireland but I think 2019 has a chance.

To summarise month by month:

June - A relatively cool and unsettled month but no significant deviations from average.

July - A warmer than average month with the potential for some very warm weather. Generally anticyclonic.

August - Much warmer than average but the ongoing risk of an unstable atmosphere resulting in variable rainfall.

As always, long range forecasting is unreliable and not to be taken seriously so this forecast is just for fun. Thanks for reading. We'll see how she goes.

Graces7

Happy summer all!

Welcome whatever the weather.. season of growth and beauty and exuberance.

Took the cats ( or vice versa) down the lane for the first time for three days. My old 15 year old actually ran! The wild flowers are a glory now. Just needed water. Berry blossoms too.

A season of burgeoning promise.

Clonmel1000

Graces7 wrote: »

Happy summer all!

Welcome whatever the weather.. season of growth and beauty and exuberance.

Took the cats ( or vice versa) down the lane for the first time for three days. My old 15 year old actually ran! The wild flowers are a glory now. Just needed water. Berry blossoms too.

A season of burgeoning promise.

Glorious morning in south Tipp to welcome summer.


Translation it’s 12 degrees overcast and lashing rain currently.

Oscar Bravo

A lot more rain in the SE than the patchy rain met eireann were forecasting. Cloudy but dry here in Castlebar. Overall , miserable June 1st.

HighLine

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A lot more rain in the SE than the patchy rain met eireann were forecasting. Cloudy but dry here in Castlebar. Overall , miserable June 1st.

The precipitation looks heavy on the radar but it is only light here in Wicklow. Hopefully should clear in a few hours anyway.

lawred2

Little spit of rain this morning.

News of lows of 9/10 degrees at the start of June is seriously depressing

Gonzo

Friends away on long weekend breaks, showing blue skies and Summer in both London and Amsterdam. Meanwhile here in Ireland our first day of summer, it's spitting drizzle and 13C.

The forecast for the next 2 weeks is grim, but hopefully luck comes our way in July and August. If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

IF July and August end up being decent, then the very poor May and what looks like a terrible June will be forgiven.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

Friends away on long weekend breaks, showing blue skies and Summer in both London and Amsterdam. Meanwhile here in Ireland our first day of summer, it's spitting drizzle and 13C.

The forecast for the next 2 weeks is grim, but hopefully luck comes our way in July and August. If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

IF July and August end up being decent, then the very poor May and what looks like a terrible June will be forgiven.

Exactly totally agree. Looking at the satellite this morning though is very painful.
Clear blue skies from the tip of southern Spain to the tip of Northern France.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

Lucky you. Have my Leaving Cert exams starting this Wednesday and won't be going anywhere on holiday this summer. If I catch a warm spell in July or August, I'm hoping to go to the west.

Trying to get a holiday to the Alps or Iceland (for northern lights) next winter.

Gonzo

This chart sums up what looks like will be the pattern for the forseeable future this June. Looks like a fantastic June for continental Europe and the south-east UK won't do too badly either. We seem to be stuck under this non ending low pressure to our north-west for the next 2 to 3 weeks.

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Lucky you. Have my Leaving Cert exams starting this Wednesday and won't be going anywhere on holiday this summer. If I catch a warm spell in July or August, I'm hoping to go to the west.

Trying to get a holiday to the Alps or Iceland (for northern lights) next winter.

I reckon you'll be one of the very few leaving cert years to experience crap weather for the leaving cert. A hot spell during Leaving Cert is nearly always certain most years!

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

I reckon you'll be one of the very few leaving cert years to experience crap weather for the leaving cert. A hot spell during Leaving Cert is nearly always certain most years!

Coincidentally enough, my Junior Cert (2016) had pretty rubbish weather too with generally overcast conditions and some downpours but mild nights!

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Coincidentally enough, my Junior Cert (2016) had pretty rubbish weather too with generally overcast conditions and some downpours but mild nights!

you definitely got lucky both years, nothing worse than being stuck in an exam hall for the day and it's 25C+ outside. It was like that for me for both junior and leaving cert. At least with rubbish weather it's not as bad and you can concentrate on your work more.

Harry Palmr

We're not having a summer, we always pay for the good one with a bad 'un.

SleetAndSnow

So with my leaving cert also starting on Wednesday, I'm not complaining about the crap weather incoming

Currently nice enough with sunny spells and high cloud in West cork, was wet during the night though. Warm in the sun aswell

km79

Unexpectedly lovely day in the west
Only downside is I’m very hungover and now have no excuse not to cut the lawn

Graces7

Glorious day.. sunny and an invigorating beeeze and my eyes are streaming now... ah well! my plants are amazing now even with the few days of rain, So all is grand west mayo offshore eden

lawred2

Out of nowhere the sun is out now in Dublin.. feeling warm

Jpmarn

2013 and 2018 were front end summers like it was good early but disappointing later on in August. Are we in for a backend Summer this year. It was quite a while since we had a good August.

pad199207

Not too bad of a day now with light enough winds.

The perfume from the cordyline flowers is intoxicating today.

SleetAndSnow

After turning foggy here on the west cork coast now with a bit of s chill in the air

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

Coincidentally enough, my Junior Cert (2016) had pretty rubbish weather too with generally overcast conditions and some downpours but mild nights!

Thankfully I escaped all the awful weather in June. I remember there was a brilliant spell of weather at the end of May 2016 lasting until the start of June with unbroken sunny skies apart from a cloudy start on the 1st of June. I went on holidays on the 4th and it was cloudy in Dublin (the end of the spell?). Then if I remember correctly, I think I read here about thunderstorms in Ireland around the 6th or 7th.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

Thankfully I escaped all the awful weather in June. I remember there was a brilliant spell of weather at the end of May 2016 lasting until the start of June with unbroken sunny skies apart from a cloudy start on the 1st of June. I went on holidays on the 4th and it was cloudy in Dublin (the end of the spell?). Then if I remember correctly, I think I read here about thunderstorms in Ireland around the 6th or 7th.

Yeah, had some lightning flashes on night of the 6th June 2016 - last I had spotted here until 27th May 2018. Was a disappointing spell for Dublin to be honest. 28th to 31st May were very good though.

acequion

Miserable first day of summer but take heart people! For personal reasons I vividly remember this day, June 1st in 1995 and it was absolute shyte. Grey and chilly and every bit as depressing as today and we all know what happened next :pac::pac:

I'd also like to wish the very best of luck to both syranbruen and SleetAndSnow in their LC. A major event and hugely important exam but those two sound like they'll fly it.:D

Oscar Bravo

Knock airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 40 knots tomorrow evening.

Munsterman12

When will our summer start? Bad may and look bad for the next 2 weeks!

Oscar Bravo

Munsterman12 wrote: »

When will our summer start? Bad may and look bad for the next 2 weeks!

Would be nice to get August. This bank holiday weekend last year was a cracker.

Clonmel1000

It’s the brightest few weeks of the year coming now love to see some good weather so we can get out and enjoy the long evenings. Nothing against August but from the 15th on I always think there’s a noticeable shortening of the days. Breezy often overcast here today was humid enough earlier but definitely not warm/hot/roasting etc. looking with envy at the scenes from Madrid beautiful blue skies and sun.

SleetAndSnow

Thanks Acequin! Here's to hoping!

Currently heavy rain in West cork about about 2 hours of drizzle and fog, chilly enough too. Not the best

Meteorite58

Grand mild day pottering around , overcast but mild getting up to 18C, rain held off until late afternoon. Enjoyed the spectacle of the BikeFest in Killarney today, relieving memories of my short lived motorbike ownership years ago and suppressing the mid life crisis desire to get a Harley!

Back to reality visited Torc waterfall, looking good today lush with vegetation.

Tigerandahalf

Nice day in the west despite the gloomy forecast. After 3 days of persistent rain it was very welcome. Not really sunny but high enough cloud cover and one of the kids wore shorts to the playground. Misty rain now.

People in southern europe are spoiled with such a good climate.

Gonzo

pouring rain now in Dunshaughlin. Looks like a very wet night ahead.

Graces7

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

So with my leaving cert also starting on Wednesday, I'm not complaining about the crap weather incoming

Currently nice enough with sunny spells and high cloud in West cork, was wet during the night though. Warm in the sun aswell

Unless we get a hurricane I can say that in future years you will not remember the weather on exam days! I did my University Hons degree finals on my 21st and I remember them letting me keep my cards on the desk but the weather?

Graces7

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Nice day in the west despite the gloomy forecast. After 3 days of persistent rain it was very welcome. Not really sunny but high enough cloud cover and one of the kids wore shorts to the playground. Misty rain now.

People in southern europe are spoiled with such a good climate.

They get different extremes.. more deluges and storms...

Bad case of ggs; grass is greener syndrome!.

Graces7

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Grand mild day pottering around , overcast but mild getting up to 18C, rain held off until late afternoon. Enjoyed the spectacle of the BikeFest in Killarney today, relieving memories of my short lived motorbike ownership years ago and suppressing the mid life crisis desire to get a Harley!

Back to reality visited Torc waterfall, looking good today lush with vegetation.


ah Torc! killarney is the one place I have lived in ireland that I get homesick for. Hated and fought leaving. Ah well; I am here now, all at sea and with very different vegetation like killer thistles,,

Graces7

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

It’s the brightest few weeks of the year coming now love to see some good weather so we can get out and enjoy the long evenings. Nothing against August but from the 15th on I always think there’s a noticeable shortening of the days. Breezy often overcast here today was humid enough earlier but definitely not warm/hot/roasting etc. looking with envy at the scenes from Madrid beautiful blue skies and sun.

June is always the loveliest month. All still fresh and not jaded... Promise... August depresses. Also June is a month for seeing your garden burgeon. The rain has done miracles here where flowers are hard won. I even have pea blossom.

But I do not mind what the weather does. Does not depress me at all, come what may. At my advanced age deeply thankful to be alive.. fascinates with the constant changes.
and |I envy no one. happy here
Wild out here now. Winds buffeting and snarling but snug inside, working on knitting slipper socks as y;day was so cold .. warmer today.

west mayo offshore peace

Calibos

Looking back at last Summers thread, while it may have already been reasonably dry in the East late May onwards and the 'real' Summer may already have started in the West at this point in 2018, I was able to date when the Summer 2018 Heatwave, high temps and drought really got started. I dont have databases to check back over like Sryanbruen but what I did have was the ability to Google the dates of Taylor Swifts Croke Park concert which was the 19th of June.

Aussie Cousins were over here for a month and arrived to drizzle and 'cold for them' temps which saw them attend the concert in wooly hats and scarves and Winter Coats much to our amusement. A day or two later they headed out West to Galway to be greeted by 30deg temps and blue skies where they finally admitted that 25deg nevermind 30deg with our humidity was as stifling as their 40deg Perth temps with low humidity. No more sneering at our Facebook posts about melting on a 26deg Irish Summers day.

Graces7

Thought you might enjoy this

Love the last idea ...

https://www.breakingnews.ie/discover/8-things-to-do-this-june-bank-holiday-weekend-despite-the-weather-928071.html

pad199207

Monday into Tuesday could be very wet indeed for Munster and Leinster.

Mobhi1

It hasn't been a terribly bad start to summer here. Yesterday was a nice day apart from some light rain. The sun was out later and it felt quite warm. The high was 19.2C. Today it's been mostly sunny, although a bit breezy. The high so far was 18.6C.

mickger844posts

Sunny but very windy conditions in Waterford City, Max gust of 48km/h

https://www.waterfordcityweather.com

acequion

Ah lads, tis dire,there's no dressing it up. Rain is lashing against the windows here and the the Reeks, so vivid on clear days, are totally shrouded in layers of mist and completely invisible. Gales buffeting my pretty patio flowers, a sorry sodden sight. Just as well they're Geraniums, so tough out and will recover.

But am so happy to be heading to the sun tomorrow because this kind of weather truly depresses me. Wish I could take it as philosophically as Graces7. Maybe when I'm older, but not yet.

Harry Palmr

Big divergence for next weeks weather GFS sez continued low pressure mess, EC says HP will move east over us.

Kutebride

Great drying that's for sure!! Not much else good about it though as dont know what to be wearing outdoors. Have to expect everything lol. Will there be any alfresco breakfast mornings I ask?! Spoiled last year.
Meath
Saw a video of the ufásach weather in Leenaun, Galway. Yikes

Graces7

acequion wrote: »

Ah lads, tis dire,there's no dressing it up. Rain is lashing against the windows here and the the Reeks, so vivid on clear days, are totally shrouded in layers of mist and completely invisible. Gales buffeting my pretty patio flowers, a sorry sodden sight. Just as well they're Geraniums, so tough out and will recover.

But am so happy to be heading to the sun tomorrow because this kind of weather truly depresses me. Wish I could take it as philosophically as Graces7. Maybe when I'm older, but not yet.

Thanks... I think! But I am so blessed to be as old as I am when so many I knew and loved are long gone and would love even a wet gale. So I just hunker down and wait it out... no alternative and give thanks to be alive,
No idea what the scene is out there but I can imagine :eek:

as unhappy as you re m garden though as south and southwesterly are the worst directions ..south comes roaring down the enclosed drive and smacks the garden right in the face as do the deluges..... all my precious patch is getting a battering and my peas just in flower ..... but it will pass and nothing we can do so knitting and pottering.. almost hail here now.. It is rather invigorating though,,,,

Have a wonderful sunny holiday.. Now that I would not enjoy!

Graces7

Mobhi1 wrote: »

It hasn't been a terribly bad start to summer here. Yesterday was a nice day apart from some light rain. The sun was out later and it felt quite warm. The high was 19.2C. Today it's been mostly sunny, although a bit breezy. The high so far was 18.6C.

Yesterday was utterly blissful but today out here is an abomination frankly

west mayo offshore in marine land

SleetAndSnow

Wind is howling on the west cork coast, cold aswell! Was very wet yesterday evening and night but dry today

Gonzo

today's temperatures across Europe are probably a good indication of what it's going to be like over the next few weeks. I'd expect Scandinavia to warm up considerably over the next few weeks too.



Latest ensembles for Dublin showing hints at possibly an improving situation from about the 12th of June with warmer and dryer conditions.

Graces7

Before I moved to I reland I was also thinking about eg France and Portugal....ah well! wouldn;t have met you -all there..

pad199207

Graces7 wrote: »

Before I moved to I reland I was also thinking about eg France and Portugal....ah well! wouldn;t have met you -all there..

What riddled your mind when ya chose Ireland?