Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim · 16-06-2019 08:29PM

Johnson is toxic to my mind. I cannot wait to see him in a debate.

Trump debated Hillary and still won . We are not the audience that they will be playing to , it will be focus grouped to the max and he knows he will have to prepare like mad and put a different face on.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-06-2019 08:33PM

jm08 wrote: »

JAvid has just stated that Ireland are the key to unlocking the problem. OFfer to pay for it and Ireland will drop the backstop.

He's not offering much. Only about half what Capita got for mismanaging army recruitment which is a well understood task that uses existing tech , it's trivial compared to the border.

Besides the backstop is only a backstop.
Once there's a technology fix it won't be needed anymore. The only problems is that we need to see the proposed solution working, and given how insistent the UK is on getting rid of the backstop it's clear they don't see a viable alternative on the horizon.

Spanish Eyes · 16-06-2019 08:41PM

trellheim wrote: »

Trump debated Hillary and still won . We are not the audience that they will be playing to , it will be focus grouped to the max and he knows he will have to prepare like mad and put a different face on.

Yes I know that. It is MPs first and then the Tory Party membership after that.

Democracy in motion.

BorneTobyWilde · 16-06-2019 08:50PM

Rory won that debate by a landslide .

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 08:58PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Rory won that debate by a landslide .

Would be great if he took out Irish citizenship and went up for election. I'd vote for him.

BorneTobyWilde · 16-06-2019 09:02PM

If it was a public vote he'd win. But it's a billy bullsh itter vote, and the biggest one will win.

Spanish Eyes · 16-06-2019 09:08PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If it was a public vote he'd win. But it's a billy bullsh itter vote, and the biggest one will win.

Indeed.

I am finding it difficult to understand how a new incumbent who is not voted for by everyone will lead the UK now without a General Election, and can decide everything.

The will of the people is sounding hollow.

Spanish Eyes · 16-06-2019 09:10PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Rory won that debate by a landslide .

Hi, could not watch it as mentioned above by me, could you elaborate thanks.

Water John · 16-06-2019 09:12PM

This can happen in many democracies. A diff party leader or indeed member of another party can become PM without a GE. What they require is the support of the majority of the Parliament.
Rory was a natural speaker and simply called out the Brexit nonsense being spouted by others, for what it is. A human being everyone could relate to and the audience of fence sitting possible Con voters loved him.

AFAIK no audience on Tues debate.

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 09:13PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Indeed.

I am finding it difficult to understand how a new incumbent who is not voted for by everyone will lead the UK now without a General Election, and can decide everything.

The will of the people is sounding hollow.

It's fine. 124,000 pale, male and stale Tory party members know what's best for Britain.

BorneTobyWilde · 16-06-2019 09:15PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Hi, could not watch it as mentioned above by me, could you elaborate thanks.

He was refreshingly honest whenever he had something to say,and the audience applauded him loudly after every remark. He seemed to be the only one in room the audience could get behind.

BonnieSituation · 16-06-2019 09:16PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Would be great if he took out Irish citizenship and went up for election. I'd vote for him.

British citizenship is sufficient to stand in all Oireachtas elections except for Presidential.

devnull · 16-06-2019 09:16PM

Water John wrote: »

This can happen in many democracies. A diff party leader or indeed member of another party can become PM without a GE. What they require is the support of the majority of the Parliament.

Tories made a big deal of Gordon Brown doing it and wouldn't stop going on about it, they don't seem to have a problem with it with May or now.

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 09:19PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

British citizenship is sufficient to stand in all Oireachtas elections except for Presidential.

Great. I'll send him an email.

Headshot · 16-06-2019 10:24PM

I recorded the debate and currently watching it back at the moment

How good is Rory, he's destroying them tbh. We're looking at the reason why Boris was to cowardly to show up.

I would absolutely love to see Rory and Boris as the final 2. Boris would be destroyed tbh

Enzokk · 16-06-2019 10:25PM

I did like how Rory Stewart got one over the others on the question on the biggest area of priority other than Brexit. All the others have their area, all of which if I can recall was a priority because of the past 9 years policies, but he said he has 3 and started with the bottom of the three. When taken to task that the other were only able to give one and which one is his priority, he added something like, "I won't mention the northern powerhouse as my second priority", getting his chance to state three areas where the others only got one.

He did also mention the adult social care as well, which has received cuts he voted for so trying to sort out their own problems.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's fine. 124,000 pale, male and stale Tory party members know what's best for Britain.

I don't know what the number of members are but this tweet mentions 160 000 of which 70% is male so it is 112 000 pale male members that will decide the next leader.

https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/1140100844433616899

Here is the replay of the debate for anyone that wants to watch it, without ad breaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWdRE0XyecA

Water John · 16-06-2019 10:37PM

Should the 60% be expelled for supporting another party? If it can happen to Alastair Campbell.

Laois_Man · 16-06-2019 10:51PM

Headshot wrote: »

I would absolutely love to see Rory and Boris as the final 2. Boris would be destroyed tbh

Totally disagree. Not a chance! If it was a presidential style nationwide election, absolutely.....but the demographics of those voting are that of the staunchest Rule Britannia brigade there is!

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 10:58PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I did like how Rory Stewart got one over the others on the question on the biggest area of priority other than Brexit. All the others have their area, all of which if I can recall was a priority because of the past 9 years policies, but he said he has 3 and started with the bottom of the three. When taken to task that the other were only able to give one and which one is his priority, he added something like, "I won't mention the northern powerhouse as my second priority", getting his chance to state three areas where the others only got one.

He did also mention the adult social care as well, which has received cuts he voted for so trying to sort out their own problems.

I don't know what the number of members are but this tweet mentions 160 000 of which 70% is male so it is 112 000 pale male members that will decide the next leader.

https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/1140100844433616899

Here is the replay of the debate for anyone that wants to watch it, without ad breaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWdRE0XyecA

Just to be pedantic, the latest official membership number from the Tory party itself was in 2018 and it was 124,000. Either way, it's a tiny fraction of the electorate.

Headshot · 16-06-2019 11:00PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Totally disagree. Not a chance! If it was a presidential style nationwide election, absolutely.....but the demographics of those voting are that of the staunchest Rule Britannia brigade there is!

Apologies I should of corrected myself, I thought there was only 2 going to be debating on Tuesday but appears there will be more depending on the votes go

I want to see Rory on Tuesday right beside Boris going for the kill.

Leroy42 · 16-06-2019 11:05PM

Going for the kill?

You mean by explaining reality and the craziness of no deal? What makes you think people will suddenly start to listen now?

Their own Chancellor has made it clear that no deal should not be considered and they are happy to dismiss him along with any and all reports, including their own.

Water John · 16-06-2019 11:17PM

Is 32 votes the Tuesday threshold?

bilston · 16-06-2019 11:24PM

Water John wrote: »

Is 32 votes the Tuesday threshold?

What did Stewart get last week? 19?

Can he find a other 13 votes from somewhere? Tobias Elwood had announced he is backing him now, so there is one more. Can he get another 12? I doubt it to be honest. Tory MPs will know what way the wind is blowing. They may not want to align themselves with someone who is very anti Boris.

Edit - I was going to add that some of Matt Hancock's 20 votes might go to Rory Stewart, but then I read that Hancock is backing Johnson...WTAF? Hancock was opposed to a no deal Brexit, he was even a Remain backer in the referendum, and now he is suddenly backing Boris!

Any wonder the public don't trust politicians.

Enzokk · 16-06-2019 11:47PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just to be pedantic, the latest official membership number from the Tory party itself was in 2018 and it was 124,000. Either way, it's a tiny fraction of the electorate.

It is a tiny fraction either way. It does seem like they have had an increase in membership since then and the article below has it at 160 000 since March this year. I have seen both numbers mentioned and I wonder if they have rules on how long you need to be a member to have voting rights.

Conservative membership swells by 36,000 ahead of leadership election

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 11:52PM

Enzokk wrote: »

It is a tiny fraction either way. It does seem like they have had an increase in membership since then and the article below has it at 160 000 since March this year. I have seen both numbers mentioned and I wonder if they have rules on how long you need to be a member to have voting rights.

Conservative membership swells by 36,000 ahead of leadership election

Three months. If that's the case then I've no doubt the new members are hardcore Brexiteers. Anyone pro EU wouldn't bother joining them.

Enzokk · 16-06-2019 11:55PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Three months. If that's the case then I've no doubt the new members are hardcore Brexiteers. Anyone pro EU wouldn't bother joining them.

There was a definite missed opportunity for Remainers to influence who the next leader is as the membership is so small you wouldn't need too many to have an influence.

BonnieSituation · 17-06-2019 12:05AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Three months. If that's the case then I've no doubt the new members are hardcore Brexiteers. Anyone pro EU wouldn't bother joining them.

You need to be an FG member for two years before you can vote in their leadership elections and even then the weighting would not be in your favour unlike the Tories.

Professor Moriarty · 17-06-2019 12:08AM

Enzokk wrote: »

There was a definite missed opportunity for Remainers to influence who the next leader is as the membership is so small you wouldn't need too many to have an influence.

Indeed. If the Tiggers Chukas Thingymebobs were strategic they would have followed your advice.

Professor Moriarty · 17-06-2019 12:09AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You need to be an FG member before you can vote in their leadership elections and even then the weighting would not be in your favour unlike the Tories.

You need to be a Tory member for three months to get a vote. Dunno about FG?

BonnieSituation · 17-06-2019 12:15AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You need to be a Tory member for three months to get a vote. Dunno about FG?

Ha. I actually omitted the part that was the crux of my post. Oops. Fixed now.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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