Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Stewart can't win because he's a candidate with broad appeal which stands against him in direct contrast with the membership. The country is divided and it needs a PM who can command support from a wide base, not just the Brexit hardliners.

To be honest, Johnson's election might give me the kick in the posterior I need to jump ship. I find the idea that he'll be PM utterly horrifying.

Nody

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Stewart can't win because he's a candidate with broad appeal which stands against him in direct contrast with the membership. The country is divided and it needs a PM who can command support from a wide base, not just the Brexit hardliners.

To be honest, Johnson's election might give me the kick in the posterior I need to jump ship. I find the idea that he'll be PM utterly horrifying.

Personally I find it fitting under the circumstances; a UK Trump who's as ideological as he's principled and completely out of his depth to deal with current issues beyond soundbites.

trellheim

hows this chain of logic

1. Only Con party members can vote in the final ballot ( if there is one )

2. Therefore that electorate are by definition interested in keeping the party together above nearly everything else

3. Does it follow, then, that the person most likely to win is someone who can keep the party together/alive ? (the implied threat being the Brexit party )

4. Therefore the most likely person will be someone who can beat the Brexit party and the only way of doing that is ... exiting the EU ASAP

5. Prediction then - once we get to the last two, it will become faster than fast brexit soundbites no matter what else as nothing else matters

Lackadaisical

Well basically the assimilation of UKIP will be complete when Boris Johnson is crowned.

Maybe we'll eventually see the Tories marginalising themselves, effectively becoming UKIP with the rise of the Lib Dems as the centre / progressive centre right major party.

It's very hard to call but I think the likelihood is a perhaps long overdue shift of the British party political establishment.

I'd argue that the days of a British political system divided on the lines of capital Vs labour are gone anyway. Maybe it's just the natural end of the Tories

MrMusician18

devnull wrote: »

This tells you why Stewart won't win
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1140563122358497285?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1140563122358497285&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-another-johnson-no-show-as-tory-leadership-hopefuls-face-journalists-11743193

The Tory party prefer unicrons to realism.

Unicornism isn't limited to Tory party members when you have posters here who think Stewart is in with a chance.

In the highly unlikely event makes it to the membership ballot he will be trounced. If he gets even 20% of the party, that would be considered a very good day out for him.

Here's not a contender, as much as people may want him to be. It's between Hunt and Johnson.

Lackadaisical

Stewart would do very well if he were standing for leadership of the Lib Dems or maybe an Irish political party. He's not jingoistic, he's pragmatic, he's facts based and broadly sensible so he doesn't have a hope in hell of leading the contemporary Tories and that's one hell of an indictment of where the Tories are in 2019.

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

Personally I find it fitting under the circumstances; a UK Trump who's as ideological as he's principled and completely out of his depth to deal with current issues beyond soundbites.

Fitting sure but there's a lot of room for a lot of things to go wrong. The US imposes tight restrictions upon it's leader via its institutions and the constitution. The UK's Parliament is effectively a 650-person dictatorship bound only by convention and the "Good chap" principle. Given Johnson's already alarming tendency to flout even Conservative party conventions and customs (Remember "F*ck business"), things are looking quite grim.

The Economist's recent Briefing on the English constitution is well worth a read:

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/05/30/the-brexit-referendum-and-the-british-constitution

strawdog

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Unicornism isn't limited to Tory party members when you have posters here who think Stewart is in with a chance.

In the highly unlikely event makes it to the membership ballot he will be trounced. If he gets even 20% of the party, that would be considered a very good day out for him.

Here's not a contender, as much as people may want him to be. It's between Hunt and Johnson.

Just glanced at the Spectator website leading with article how he's all style and no substance, which is telling, and another article on his TV performance is the most popular on the site so he's got the full attention of Tory hard right and, as the latter article notes, he's certainly ruffled feathers even if you're right and nothing else comes of it

devnull

Is it me or is Jeremy Hunt drifting more and more to the right?

http://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-hunt-says-he-agrees-150-with-donald-trumps-criticism-of-sadiq-khan-11743490

What a sorry place uld UK is turning into. Putin must be delighted with the way this is turning out.

Mezcita

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Unicornism isn't limited to Tory party members when you have posters here who think Stewart is in with a chance.

In the highly unlikely event makes it to the membership ballot he will be trounced. If he gets even 20% of the party, that would be considered a very good day out for him.

Here's not a contender, as much as people may want him to be. It's between Hunt and Johnson.

Awesome. Stewart can't win then. You've just discovered the secret to free money in Boards.ie politics forum of all places.

So go here. Click the lay button beside Stewart's name. Have the money in your account to cover the loss (which obviously won't happen right?). Free money. Boom.

My point was that your statement that he ''hasn't got a hope in hell'' is incorrect. He's not 1,000,000/1 to win. Or even 1,000/1. He's 15/1 in a six horse race where the favourite has a tendency to self destruct on a regular basis. As I said, he probably won't win but he has a chance if Boris goes rogue.

Conscious that this talk might be better suited to the Gambling forum but blanket statements that things simply can't happen are ridiculous. Especially in politics. We're a few months away from the UK jumping off the cliff into the unknown. Presume a lot of people thought that would never happen five years ago.

Lemming

Mezcita wrote: »

My point was that your statement that he ''hasn't got a hope in hell'' is incorrect. He's not 1,000,000/1 to win. Or even 1,000/1. He's 15/1 in a six horse race where the favourite has a tendency to self destruct on a regular basis. As I said, he probably won't win but he has a chance if Boris goes rogue.

Conscious that this talk might be better suited to the Gambling forum but blanket statements that things simply can't happen are ridiculous. Especially in politics. We're a few months away from the UK jumping off the cliff into the unknown. Presume a lot of people thought that would never happen five years ago.

The problem with taking the bookies odds at face value - besides the obvious statement of being a gamble - is that those odds are based on public perception which is not necessarily reflective of reality because it isn't the perception of the public that matters, but the perception of the Tory party members who are eligible to vote on the matter.

sink

Mezcita wrote: »

Awesome. Stewart can't win then. You've just discovered the secret to free money in Boards.ie politics forum of all places.

So go here. Click the lay button beside Stewart's name. Have the money in your account to cover the loss (which obviously won't happen right?). Free money. Boom.

My point was that your statement that he ''hasn't got a hope in hell'' is incorrect. He's not 1,000,000/1 to win. Or even 1,000/1. He's 15/1 in a six horse race where the favourite has a tendency to self destruct on a regular basis. As I said, he probably won't win but he has a chance if Boris goes rogue.

Conscious that this talk might be better suited to the Gambling forum but blanket statements that things simply can't happen are ridiculous. Especially in politics. We're a few months away from the UK jumping off the cliff into the unknown. Presume a lot of people thought that would never happen five years ago.

The only possible way for Stewart to win is for all other contenders to be eliminated/drop-out before the ballot. Even if he makes it to a ballot his rival will have to have been caught doing cocaine off a transgendered prostitutes ass for Stewart to be in with a chance to win. But you are right, as with horse racing there is always the possibility that all the other contenders will drop dead before the race is over.

J Mysterio

Business Insider have dug up some interesting old comments from Boris RE: Scotland.

"Johnson, the strong favourite to be Britain's next prime minister, also authorised publication of a poem describing Scottish people as vermin who should be exterminated.

Writing in the Spectator in 2005, Johnson said that it would be "utterly outrageous" if the then Chancellor Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as prime minister on the grounds that he is Scottish.

"The Labour machine will try, at some point in the next few years, to insert Gordon Brown," Johnson wrote, in comments unearthed by the Scotsman newspaper on Monday.

"That would be utterly outrageous, not just because he is a gloomadon-popping, interfering, high-taxing complicator of life, but mainly because he is a Scot, and government by a Scot is just not conceivable in the current constitutional context."

Johnson claimed that Brown was "not really interested in British values" but instead in "his personal political disability as a Scottish MP."

Strazdas

devnull wrote: »

Is it me or is Jeremy Hunt drifting more and more to the right?

http://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-hunt-says-he-agrees-150-with-donald-trumps-criticism-of-sadiq-khan-11743490

What a sorry place uld UK is turning into. Putin must be delighted with the way this is turning out.

He was the one who likened the EU to the Soviet Union (which greatly angered many people in the EU).

jmayo

Scotland and Northern Ireland, and by extension their people, are of little consequence to a lot of tories.

In fact if anything this could get boris the buffoon votes from some.

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

Business Insider have dug up some interesting old comments from Boris RE: Scotland.

"Johnson, the strong favourite to be Britain's next prime minister, also authorised publication of a poem describing Scottish people as vermin who should be exterminated.

Writing in the Spectator in 2005, Johnson said that it would be "utterly outrageous" if the then Chancellor Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as prime minister on the grounds that he is Scottish.

"The Labour machine will try, at some point in the next few years, to insert Gordon Brown," Johnson wrote, in comments unearthed by the Scotsman newspaper on Monday.

"That would be utterly outrageous, not just because he is a gloomadon-popping, interfering, high-taxing complicator of life, but mainly because he is a Scot, and government by a Scot is just not conceivable in the current constitutional context."

Johnson claimed that Brown was "not really interested in British values" but instead in "his personal political disability as a Scottish MP."

Maybe he didn't like the idea of a Scot succeeding a Scot?

PeadarCo

Professor Moriarty wrote:

68% for Raab. Depressing.

What's even more depressing is the percentage indicating that they think Stewart would be a poor leader. Its 50%. Stewart from the sounds of it is providing real leadership by being honest with the party. The chances of him winning on that alone are slim to none. It might win a vote even general election as a centrist. Be it says a lot about the UK and the impact that Brexit has had, that these types of people can't get leadership roles in the big 2 parties. I pity the UK public going into the next election having to choose between Corbyn and Johnson(assuming other parties don't break the duopoly in England).

Strazdas

PeadarCo wrote: »

What's even more depressing is the percentage indicating that they think Stewart would be a poor leader. Its 50%. Stewart from the sounds of it is providing real leadership by being honest with the party. The chances of him winning on that alone are slim to none. It might win a vote even general election as a centrist. Be it says a lot about the UK and the impact that Brexit has had, that these types of people can't get leadership roles in the big 2 parties. I pity the UK public going into the next election having to choose between Corbyn and Johnson(assuming other parties don't break the duopoly in England).

The reason Brexiteers fear / hate Stewart is because they know he would halt No Deal under all circumstances and they are afraid Brexit could completely unravel under him.

Shelga

Listening to Rory Stewart on Nigel Farage from yesterday- he's really not that great. He dismisses the idea of staying in the EU at all, saying it would be too divisive, "we just have to leave now" etc.

He's peddling the idea that it's no longer relevant to even question if Brexit is a good idea anymore- Leave had the majority vote, and that's the end of it. Absolute rubbish, as any form of Brexit leaves the country significantly poorer. He's still not telling the truth, even though he must know the truth as he's an intelligent guy. He also said "let's get away from any form of European army"- I mean, come on, Rory, I expected better from you.

I understand where he's coming from, to a point. And he is more pragmatic than the others. But he's still a dyed-in-the-wool Tory, with an appalling record on austerity votes in the HoC.

What an awful mess the UK is in right now, with PM Johnson looking more and more inevitable by the day. Dark times ahead.

54and56

Strazdas wrote: »

The reason Brexiteers fear / hate Stewart is because they know he would halt No Deal under all circumstances and they are afraid Brexit could completely unravel under him.

David Lidington just endorsed Rory Stewart. Not exactly momentum but two new endorsements over the last 24 hours is more than any of the other candidates have mustered IIRC.

Clinging at straws I know but still clinging.............

devnull

54&56 wrote: »

David Lidington just endorsed Rory Stewart. Not exactly momentum but two new endorsements over the last 24 hours is more than any of the other candidates have mustered IIRC. .

Unfortunately Rory Stewart has just endorsed working with Nigel Farage in the Brexit Party and bringing him on-board which has lowered my estimation of him.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/the-brexit-party-rallies-behind-rory-stewart-1-6110761

Joe_ Public

Shelga wrote: »

Listening to Rory Stewart on Nigel Farage from yesterday- he's really not that great. He dismisses the idea of staying in the EU at all, saying it would be too divisive, "we just have to leave now" etc.

He's peddling the idea that it's no longer relevant to even question if Brexit is a good idea anymore- Leave had the majority vote, and that's the end of it. Absolute rubbish, as any form of Brexit leaves the country significantly poorer. He's still not telling the truth, even though he must know the truth as he's an intelligent guy. He also said "let's get away from any form of European army"- I mean, come on, Rory, I expected better from you.

I understand where he's coming from, to a point. And he is more pragmatic than the others. But he's still a dyed-in-the-wool Tory, with an appalling record on austerity votes in the HoC.

What an awful mess the UK is in right now, with PM Johnson looking more and more inevitable by the day. Dark times ahead.

My favourite bit of the debates was when they were asked about their weaknesses and Rory actually listed around 3 or 4 while the likes of Gove went for the classic "impatient to get things done" and Raab went for "restless" ("i'm a restless soul") which, co-incidentally as it happens in both cases, is precisely want you want in a leader right now.

I still maintain that he is in the wrong party. I once heard a Lib Dem described, not entirely inaccurately perhaps, as a "tory with a conscience" and i'd place Stewart in that category. Said it weeks ago, as indeed did others on here, that i'd no idea why anyone would want to be tory leader at this particular moment and see George Monbiot picking up on this in todays guardian. None of them can deliver brexit by end of next month and none of them can own up to that truth - though Gove has at least come close.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/prime-minister-therapy

54and56

devnull wrote: »

Unfortunately Rory Stewart has just endorsed working with Nigel Farage in the Brexit Party and bringing him on-board which has lowered my estimation of him.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/the-brexit-party-rallies-behind-rory-stewart-1-6110761

Not quite as straightforward as that.

Stewart said in last nights debate when asked (as all the candidates were) if he would let Farage into the Brexit negotiating team that he recognised Farage represents a view which is shared by a large portion of the population and that he would indeed listen to Farage and discuss any ideas Farage had but he did NOT say he'd work with him or give him any role in the negotiations. He had in fact been on Farage's LBC talkshow programme earlier in the day debating Farage on his blind hard brexit mission something none of the other candidates would dare to do.

Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer

54and56

Shelga wrote: »

Listening to Rory Stewart on Nigel Farage from yesterday- he's really not that great. He dismisses the idea of staying in the EU at all, saying it would be too divisive, "we just have to leave now" etc.

He's peddling the idea that it's no longer relevant to even question if Brexit is a good idea anymore- Leave had the majority vote, and that's the end of it. Absolute rubbish, as any form of Brexit leaves the country significantly poorer. He's still not telling the truth, even though he must know the truth as he's an intelligent guy. He also said "let's get away from any form of European army"- I mean, come on, Rory, I expected better from you.

I understand where he's coming from, to a point. And he is more pragmatic than the others. But he's still a dyed-in-the-wool Tory, with an appalling record on austerity votes in the HoC.

What an awful mess the UK is in right now, with PM Johnson looking more and more inevitable by the day. Dark times ahead.

Apart of course for the period when he was a member of the Labour Party - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart#Political_stances :P

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

But he's still a dyed-in-the-wool Tory, with an appalling record on austerity votes in the HoC.

Well of course he is! Whatever slim chance Stewart has of becoming leader, they are certainly not going to give the job to someone who isn't a dyed-in-the-wool Tory!


You have to put the implied "Considering he's a Tory" before statements like "he seems to tell the truth quite a bit", "he seems to know what is going on" and "he doesn't seem to be an overbred congenital idiot".

serfboard

Shelga wrote: »

Listening to Rory Stewart on Nigel Farage from yesterday- he's really not that great. He dismisses the idea of staying in the EU at all, saying it would be too divisive, "we just have to leave now" etc.

He's peddling the idea that it's no longer relevant to even question if Brexit is a good idea anymore- Leave had the majority vote, and that's the end of it. Absolute rubbish, as any form of Brexit leaves the country significantly poorer. He's still not telling the truth, even though he must know the truth as he's an intelligent guy. He also said "let's get away from any form of European army"- I mean, come on, Rory, I expected better from you.

I understand where he's coming from, to a point. And he is more pragmatic than the others. But he's still a dyed-in-the-wool Tory, with an appalling record on austerity votes in the HoC.

Agree and I said so previously after his appearance recently on Pienaar's Politics - he said that he'd re-negotiate the deal and have it all done and dusted and the UK out by October 31st. Load of nonsense.

What he is doing, as others have said here, is running in the next Tory leadership race, being the "I told ye so" candidate when Boris' reign ends in failure. Building up his profile now is doing him a lot of good in the long run. He's nearly ten years younger than Boris, so he's got plenty of time.

Otherwise, Johnson's team are running a great strategy of having him not participate in debates and private hustings where there are other Tories. He's bound to say something stupid, but like Trump, the bar is set so low with Boris, that if he manages to say his own name correctly it's "Prime Ministerial", and he seems to suffer no ill effects (he too could shoot someone on the street ...).

Far better for him to wait until tomorrow's debate, when there will be fewer candidates in the race after tomorrow's second round, thus reducing the chances of him suffering a knockout blow.

Shelga

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Said it weeks ago, as indeed did others on here, that i'd no idea why anyone would want to be tory leader at this particular moment and see George Monbiot picking up on this in todays guardian. None of them can deliver brexit by end of next month and none of them can own up to that truth - though Gove has at least come close.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/12/prime-minister-therapy

I was wondering that too- why on earth do any of them want it at this moment? I think it must be that they're laying the groundwork, in hopes of being PM at some point in the next 5-10 years.

There were only 2 candidates in 2016, and Leadsom dropped out quickly. That was before article 50 had even been triggered, and things were much less dire. The UK held far more cards.

Now, there were 11-12 candidates, when the UK is in the worst position its been in in decades, utterly divided and getting worse every week, as the clock ticks down to October 31st? Very puzzling.

Laois_Man

54&56 wrote: »

Not quite as straightforward as that.

Stewart said in last nights debate when asked (as all the candidates were) if he would let Farage into the Brexit negotiating team that he recognised Farage represents a view which is shared by a large portion of the population and that he would indeed listen to Farage and discuss any ideas Farage had but he did NOT say he'd work with him or give him any role in the negotiations. He had in fact been on Farage's LBC talkshow programme earlier in the day debating Farage on his blind hard brexit mission something none of the other candidates would dare to do.

Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer

Farage is very much like his mate Trump - massage his ego and he'll give you an easy ride on his show! Stewart was merely playing up to Farage's sense of self-importance.

Stewart has acknowledged openly that there won't be any Brexit re-negotiating with the EU - he knows the WA will not change. In fact, Farage openly agreed with this view on the radio yesterday morning (yet he still demands to be included in the negotiations he admits won't happen - go figure)!

His answer to the Northern Ireland border question left me perplexed though. You would think nobody could seriously think that the idea of a UK-wide backstop could pass thru the HoC. But ol' Rory still seems to think it would!

Stop moaning ffs

Shoot me if I’m wrong but we’re all despairing at the current process that will see the Conservative party elect their leader and he will become prime minister unelected because they are in government as they have mandate.


Is that or how is that any different than FG electing Varadkar as Taoiseach and none of us got a say in it?

They’re the two same systems are they not? And both ridiculous.

Should we not have a general election once a party loses or deposes it’s leader?

First Up

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Shoot me if I’m wrong but we’re all despairing at the current process that will see the Conservative party elect their leader and he will become prime minister unelected because they are in government as they have mandate.

It isn't automatic. The Prime Minister is elected by the HoC in the same way the Taoiseach is elected by the Dail. If one party has an overall majority, then no problem but if not then it comes down to whatever deals are done between parties.

The Conservatives don't have an overall majority so for their nominee to be elected, some members of other parties will have to vote for him. May only became PM because the DUP backed her. Boris or whoever the Tories chose will face the same problem so I wouldn't expect anyone to rock the DUP boat this side of a general election.