Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

You lost me at ‘as a human’ but let’s not Leo is worthless.

Related note. James o Brien and couple of others going after Boris cos he’s a bit horny and seems to ride and run. Leaving the mother with the baby.

It’s a dirty tactic but if he truly does have loads of kids he doesn’t acknowledge it could well scupper his chances.

On BBC radio today, one of Johnson's supporters was asked how many children does Johnson have. He refused to answer and went down the personal matters road. Probably some very useful dirt to be dredged up in that area.

54and56

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I was referring to the rolling eyes and despair here about himself being chosen.

We’re no better. In fact pound for pound he’s probably a better leader than a few we never got a say in over here. Cowen and Varadkar spring straight to mind.

I don't think people are as opposed to the process of electing a Tory leader (and by extension a likely PM providing he commands a majority of MP's in the HoC) as much as the direction the Tory membership is lurching towards and the likely person they will end up electing.

The process isn't perfect but it's well established, transparent and pretty much adopted by all parties in one form or other.

First Up

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I was referring to the rolling eyes and despair here about himself being chosen.

We’re no better. In fact pound for pound he’s probably a better leader than a few we never got a say in over here. Cowen and Varadkar spring straight to mind.

You got the same say in Cowan, Varadkar, Bertie Ahern, Enda Kenny and every other Taoiseach. You voted for candidates for the Dáil and parliamentary democracy took it from there.

Joe_ Public

I think Johnson is nowhere near as impregnable as his supporters like to think. A 5k majority in his own Uxbridge constituency falls someway short of watertight, fail to deliver brexit and his own seat would be toast, let alone what happens to his party. I've no doubt too that he is a guy with a serious collection of skeletons in every closet. I'd much rather his reckoning came on his terrible habit of opposing all worthwhile measures on climate change on top of a hundred other crimes, but whatever it takes will be good enough for me.

Stop moaning ffs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

On BBC radio today, one of Johnson's supporters was asked how many children does Johnson have. He refused to answer and went down the personal matters road. Probably some very useful dirt to be dredged up in that area.

No way!
That’s mad.
I saw O Brien tweet about it this morning. I don’t know if the tweet or interview came first.
It would be a horrible level for the process to go to. And I hope it doesn’t. Johnson has an armada of flaws to go for. None of it needs to go into all that.

Laois_Man

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I was referring to the rolling eyes and despair here about himself being chosen.

People despair about him being chosen - or the general lack of quality of options (Raab would be worse) - not about how he gets chosen!

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

No way!
That’s mad.
I saw O Brien tweet about it this morning. I don’t know if the tweet or interview came first.
It would be a horrible level for the process to go to. And I hope it doesn’t. Johnson has an armada of flaws to go for. None of it needs to go into all that.

I'd go for it. I'd present it as being a reasonable enquiry as to his character. If he is to be prime minister then the public (even though they don't have a vote) are entitled to know everything about him. If he doesn't want to face such questioning, he can always opt to drop out.

Stop moaning ffs

First Up wrote: »

You got the same say in Cowan, Varadkar, Bertie Ahern, Enda Kenny and every other Taoiseach. You voted for candidates for the Dáil and parliamentary democracy took it from there.

All true. But we had few options and none in some instances.

Stop moaning ffs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'd go for it. I'd present it as being a reasonable enquiry as to his character. If he is to be prime minister then the public (even though they don't have a vote) are entitled to know everything about him. If he doesn't want to face such questioning, he can always opt to drop out.

Good point.
It does drag the whole dialogue down to a horrible new level that even British media hasn’t explored yet. And many times they should and could have. Now isn’t the time though.
As a previous poster said, let’s take him apart in his inability to get this done. Then he’ll be quickly replaced hopefully by someone suited for the job.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Serious discussion only please.

Capt'n Midnight

54&56 wrote: »

Apart of course for the period when he was a member of the Labour Party - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart#Political_stances :P

Good thing he didn't vote for the Lib Dems eh ?


Surprised that wasn't explained away as "know thine enemy"

54and56

On ITV News at 10 Robert Peston, their political editor, was asked who he thought would make the last two and in addition to BoJo he plumbed for Stewart or possibly Javid!!!

I know it seems BoJo is a slam dunk regardless of who the 2nd candidate is but I think once it gets down to two candidates and if its BoJo and Stewart there's a good chance Stewart will comprehensively outsmart BoJo over the 3 week hustings and could (I say "could") convert a lot of normally sensible Tories to his candidacy.

One step at a time :-)

Capt'n Midnight

trellheim wrote: »

hows this chain of logic

1. Only Con party members can vote in the final ballot ( if there is one )

2. Therefore that electorate are by definition interested in keeping the party together above nearly everything else

Judging by the billions the candidates apart from Rory are trying to buy that small electorate off with they aren't even getting to step 2.

nice_guy80

I wonder will Boris' private life get dragged into his suitability to be Tory leader?

Stop moaning ffs

Possibly.


Bigger question is. We’re all fawning. Over Stewart. As capable as he is he will never sell the deal as it stands to Parliament or the uk population.

He’d be better off waiting in the long grass to ‘save’ the uk in the post no deal scenario

Leroy42

The point being made about Johnson and his private life is not some prudish sentiment regarding family values but it's about his character and how much one can believe him about anything.

Berserker

54&56 wrote: »

I know it seems BoJo is a slam dunk regardless of who the 2nd candidate is but I think once it gets down to two candidates and if its BoJo and Stewart there's a good chance Stewart will comprehensively outsmart BoJo over the 3 week hustings and could (I say "could") convert a lot of normally sensible Tories to his candidacy.

Do people really buy this clutsy facade that Boris J. puts on? Not a chance in hell that Stewart or anyone else will outsmart him. Boris will be the next leader of the party. Stewart is mad to even consider running for leader at this moment in time. He can be another T.M. at best. Still can't see him getting the current deal through parliament.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

The point being made about Johnson and his private life is not some prudish sentiment regarding family values but it's about his character and how much one can believe him about anything.

Surely if you don't know how many children you have, you should be ineligible to hold the highest office in government.

Stop moaning ffs

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Surely if you don't know how many children you have, you should be ineligible to hold the highest office in government.

Exactly.

But we had a Taoiseach that didn’t have a bank account.
Work from there.

People will turn a blind eye to anything when it suits their agenda and focus.

bilston

Stewart is positioning himself to be the figurehead for which Tory opposition to Johnson can surround itself. He will be to Johnson what the ERG were to May. With that in mind he may be in a strong position to take over from Johnson when he inevitably fails as Tory leader and PM.

In the short term though I just want Stewart to get through tomorrow's vote so he can take Johnson on in the BBC debate tomorrow night. Although I'm unsure of the format of it so it may not be as simple as a head to head between the remaining candidates.

One thing though, Boris isn't stupid, like any politician he is pretty smart, so he wont go in unprepared, if he does he really is unfit for office

Stop moaning ffs

Exactly. And there’s the problem.
If he gets to debate. Rory will be Rory and it’ll fly over many heads.
Boris will say the same sound bites repeatedly no matter the question
And will sail home.

Stewart’s best bet is waiting. He’s the thinnest of hopes they have but all they have. I don’t even think he believes Tory mantra now

An Claidheamh

bilston wrote: »

Stewart is positioning himself to be the figurehead for which Tory opposition to Johnson can surround itself. He will be to Johnson what the ERG were to May. With that in mind he may be in a strong position to take over from Johnson when he inevitably fails as Tory leader and PM.

Equally though, if Stewart were to win, Boris would be the figurehead operating against him.

This would be untenable.

Stewart would not get anything passed, Bojo would have the media attack any Tories that even considered a dignified end to this Brexit farce.

Better to let Bojo face the music, he shouldn't be allowed escape responsibility like he's been allowed for years.

Let him try, fail, fail worse, blame someone else, and watch the Scots finally sort themselves out and Labour regroup when he alienates the North of England.

Furthermore, I'd genuinely be surprised if Johnson doesn't sell out the Dupers incredibly quickly.

Curious, how Scotland will react to a Johnson PM?

Fair to say, Boris is the PM Brexit Britain deserves.

Peregrinus

First Up wrote: »

It isn't automatic. The Prime Minister is elected by the HoC in the same way the Taoiseach is elected by the Dail. If one party has an overall majority, then no problem but if not then it comes down to whatever deals are done between parties.

The Conservatives don't have an overall majority so for their nominee to be elected, some members of other parties will have to vote for him. May only became PM because the DUP backed her. Boris or whoever the Tories chose will face the same problem so I wouldn't expect anyone to rock the DUP boat this side of a general election.

Actually, no. The PM is not elected by the Commons; it's one of the differences between the Irish and UK systems.

After the leadership election is complete, May will go to the Queen and resign as PM, suggesting that Her Maj should send for Johnson [or whoever has won the leadership]. HM will then send for Johnson and ask if if he thinks he can form a government which commands the confidence of the House. Johnson will say "yes" and HM will thereupon appoint him as PM. There will be no vote in the Commons. Indeed, all of this will probably happen at a time whent the Commons is not sitting.

The acid test comes some time later, when when someone in the Commons puts down a vote of confidence in Johnson's government. But that may be weeks or months after he has become PM.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

Actually, no. The PM is not elected by the Commons; it's one of the differences between the Irish and UK systems.

Same difference. The putative PM has to be able to command a majority in the HoC. The Queen can give any number of people the opportunity to form a government. By all means start with whoever has the biggest bloc but that isn't enough to get the job.

Peregrinus

First Up wrote: »

Same difference. The putative PM has to be able to command a majority in the HoC. The Queen can give any number of people the opportunity to form a government. By all means start with whoever has the biggest bloc but that isn't enough to get the job.

You're PM from the moment the Queen asks you (and you accept) until the Commons votes no confidence in you. That can be a while. The result is that - esp. now with the Fixed-Term Parliament Act - you can have a limbo-like situation in which there's a PM who can't command a majority in the House, and can't get their signature policies (or indeed any policies) through, and yet the House refuses to vote no confidence because it doesn't want an election. In the meantime, although you can't get your legislation through Parliament, you can exercise all the executive functions of government, despite having no mandate other than the Queen's invitation based on the recommendation of a predecessor who themselves has lost the confidence of the House.

This couldn't happen in Ireland, where you can't become Taoiseach in the frist place without an affirmative vote in Dail Eireann.

This is a glitch in the UK constitution which is one of the (many, many) factors that, regardless of what you think of Brexit itself, has turned the Brexit process into such a monumental train-wreck. It's something they'll need to iron out for the future. The ability of Parliament to hold the executive to account needs to be beefed up, and its responsiblity to do so needs to be underlined.

murphaph

Berserker wrote: »

Do people really buy this clutsy facade that Boris J. puts on? Not a chance in hell that Stewart or anyone else will outsmart him. Boris will be the next leader of the party. Stewart is mad to even consider running for leader at this moment in time. He can be another T.M. at best. Still can't see him getting the current deal through parliament.

But Stewart isn't saying "my way or the highway" like T. May did. He probably knows he can't get the deal through parliament. He has stated that if he cannot, that he will opt for a quickly convened citizens' assembly to chew the matter over and present their suggestion to parliament. He has also not ruled out a confirmatory referendum.

He understands the country is deeply split, right down the middle, over Brexit. He knows and is prepared to state that there will be know really satisfactory outcome for everyone because of this deep division.

Stewart is, IMO an honest politician (perhaps a rare thing) and Johnson is the antithesis of this. Johnson's past may well catch up with him if enough dirt starts to leak out before the Conservative Party members' vote takes place.

S.M.B.

I was at a Brexit debate back in April and Stewart was there representing May's deal with Hillary Benn on the opposite side. I'd have little respect for him if he did a full U-turn without any explanation.

Peregrinus

Stewart backs May's deal because he thinks - correctly - that given the negotiation position adopted by the UK (i.e. May's "red lines") it is the best deal that the UK could hope to get and, realistically, much better than the kind of deal they might have feared to get.

That analysis hasn't changed, and so Stewart hasn't changed his position on May's deal.

So far, so good. But of course it does mean that Steward accepts (a) that a decision to Brexit has been taken, and will not be reversed, and (b) that May's red lines are not going to be reconsidered. Whether he does this because he agrees with both of the, thinks they are correct and thinks they should not be reconsidered, or because he thinks it is simply too late to reconsider these matters or because he thinks that, politically, it is impossible to reconsider these matters, is not clear to me.

But in the end it means that Stewart, too, is a Brexiter, and indeed a hard Brexiter. Which means the range of options being offered to the Tory selectorate, and therefore to the country, is much narrower than it needs to be. You can choose any flavour of hard Brexit that you like.

Leroy42

Stewart has always said that Brexit must be carried out. So any votes in the HoC, the citizens assembly or even another ref, will be aimed at getting the 'best' Brexit.

That is not being honest. Being honest is saying that the realities of the situation are such that this Brexit is/has been such a mess that the best course of action is to pause and rethink. That the UK need to be better prepared. Take the time to work out some 'alternative arrangements' for the NI border.

Take some time to work out how to deal with a changing economy based on a significant move away from the EU.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

You're PM from the moment the Queen asks you (and you accept) until the Commons votes no confidence in you. That can be a while.

In the case of Boris and in the midst of the Brexit chaos, I'd give it about 45 minutes