Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 13-06-2019 06:10PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

It was not just the lack of preparation if Leave won, it was lack of loading the dice to make sure Leave lost.

I mentioned using a super majority, but he should have made sure the question included a follow up referendum to back the actual terms of leaving - that is a second referendum. He should have also made clear in the legislation that leaving without a deal was ruled out either directly or required a much larger super majority.

He should never have been PM.

In fact, he openly sneered at the idea of a second referendum and even contributed to the narrative that such a referendum would be "undemocratic".

One ghastly mistake after another : overestimating his chances of winning, underestimating the rise of the English far right and their willingness to promise the sun, moon and stars to a gullible public.

trellheim · 13-06-2019 06:38PM

I would say if Boris gets in we will see an immediate vote of confidence which could force a GE

13-06-2019 06:46PM

trellheim wrote: »

I would say if Boris gets in we will see an immediate vote of confidence which could force a GE

You could also say that when the PM election is over, any of them will face a vote of confidence, it's the party that the opposition have lost confidence in not just the PM.

Laois_Man · 13-06-2019 06:46PM

trellheim wrote: »

I would say if Boris gets in we will see an immediate vote of confidence which could force a GE

While Labour sees the possibility of the Tory's destroying itself? My bet would be they will sit tight!

BonnieSituation · 13-06-2019 06:49PM

Boris v Corbyn in a GE only has one winner.

Labour aren't getting a look in at all with this contest ongoing. Feels like the Tories are rehabilitating themselves with it.

Spanish Eyes · 13-06-2019 06:56PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Boris v Corbyn in a GE only has one winner.

Labour aren't getting a look in at all with this contest ongoing. Feels like the Tories are rehabilitating themselves with it.

It is just baffling to me how Labour supporters are prepared to let this happen with Corbyn at the helm. I just cannot figure it out. But there may be a reason, and I know Momentum is behind it all, but for what really?

What is their goal?

13-06-2019 07:19PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

It is just baffling to me how Labour supporters are prepared to let this happen with Corbyn at the helm. I just cannot figure it out. But there may be a reason, and I know Momentum is behind it all, but for what really?

What is their goal?

To stay out of government until after the SHTF moment and then return as the "white knights in shining armour" to the rescue.

Professor Moriarty · 13-06-2019 07:27PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

It is just baffling to me how Labour supporters are prepared to let this happen with Corbyn at the helm. I just cannot figure it out. But there may be a reason, and I know Momentum is behind it all, but for what really?

What is their goal?

Interestingly, the vast majority of Momentum members are pro EU.

An Ciarraioch · 13-06-2019 08:02PM

Change UK will now become TIG FC (The Independent Group For Change):

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48629838

Capt'n Midnight · 13-06-2019 08:07PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

What is their goal?

Sneaky Brexit.

When they get into power they can join the customs union and nationalise and subsidise the trade union jobs and block immigration and what ever you're having yourself

"some of our unicorns are different"

Deleted User wrote: »

To stay out of government until after the SHTF moment and then return as the "white knights in shining armour" to the rescue.

To do this they'd have to get back into power before the Tories destroy the unions and the NHS and the country. And what is their plan to become electable ?

Resuscitation Rambo murdered at least 85 people in an attempt to look like a hero

The squeeze on public finances translates into 30,000 excess deaths a year in England :mad:

LeinsterDub · 13-06-2019 09:09PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Change UK will now become TIG FC (The Independent Group For Change):

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48629838

This their 5th name or 6th?

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2019 09:47PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Interestingly, the vast majority of Momentum members are pro EU.

I'd say that they are more pro-Remain than pro-EU. I would be surprised if they weren't extremely keen on linking up with other Socialist movements across Europe to move the EU in a more left-wing direction, especially on workers' rights, climate change and tax avoidance. When I attended the various marches in London, there were a fair few Socialists out.

An Ciarraioch · 13-06-2019 10:13PM

Chuka Umunna joins his third party this year:

http://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1139278191070195712

BonnieSituation · 13-06-2019 10:15PM

That was inevitable really.

Hopefully the rest of the Change crew that abandoned ship after the EU elections, join him.

Spanish Eyes · 13-06-2019 10:24PM

Lib Dems to me seem to the best place for those who are neither Tory Leavers nor Labour as they are now with Corbyn.

They have a great option of cutting through the middle.

But money. funding and so on is the key.

devnull · 13-06-2019 10:28PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That was inevitable really.

Hopefully the rest of the Change crew that abandoned ship after the EU elections, join him.

He's seen sense, the rest of them should do the same.

Won't get my hopes up though as a few of them were recently saying that they see challenging Lib Dems as their main priority which is very odd as they'd be helping the Brexiteers.

Rain Ascending · 13-06-2019 11:14PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Lib Dems to me seem to the best place for those who are neither Tory Leavers nor Labour as they are now with Corbyn.

They have a great option of cutting through the middle.

But money. funding and so on is the key.

... and infrastructure. As Change UK found out to its cost, lack of access to a professional and savvy central office can make you look unprofessional and unfocused. And as the Brexit Party found out to its cost in Petersborough, not having an on-the-ground organization to canvas and get out your vote can mean the difference between winning and losing.

So, yes, while the Lib Dems are a fairly natural fit for many of the Change UK crowd on policy and even ideological terms, there is an element of the need to survive and, in fairness, understandably so.

If more Change UK and ex-Change UK MPs move across, there is one really important point to note. In the (likely) event of a vote of no confidence, the likelihood of these MPs voting against the Tory government is a near certainty. As independents or members of an ineffectual party like Change UK, there was always a chance they might abstain to try to postpone a general election. (Three ex-Labour independents did exactly just that in the January vote of no confidence.) As part of the Liberal Democrats, subject to a Lib Dem whip, that just won't happen.

This is a small, but significant step to a general election in the UK.

BonnieSituation · 13-06-2019 11:33PM

devnull wrote: »

He's seen sense, the rest of them should do the same.

Won't get my hopes up though as a few of them were recently saying that they see challenging Lib Dems as their main priority which is very odd as they'd be helping the Brexiteers.

Sure if they had pooled the lists during the Euro elections then they all would have been better off.

Spanish Eyes · 13-06-2019 11:39PM

Is there any chance do you think, that the good of the country in UK might outweigh the good of the Tory Party?

Infini · 13-06-2019 11:59PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Chuka Umunna joins his third party this year:

http://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1139278191070195712

3rd times the charm as they say. That being said Lib Dem's are the only logical choice at this point, Conservative's are on a kamikaze course and so long as Corbyn is Labour leader they're impotent and of no use.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Is there any chance do you think, that the good of the country in UK might outweigh the good of the Tory Party?

The biggest amount of votes is for Boris. That tell's you all they need they'll burn the place to the ground 1st than admit they fecked up.

Lackadaisical · 14-06-2019 12:11AM

The only optimistic hope is that Boris is just posturing and playing to an audience and when he gets into office he turns out to be far more pragmatic.

Personally, I think it's clutching at straws. He's a long established Eurosceptic and his track record speaks for itself.

I could see him being extremely undiplomatic with Ireland and attempting to bully us into line. If he does, I think we should simply throw him to the wolves of American public opinion. There are still a lot of Americans who don't react too well to what would look like and actually be someone who sounds like an upper class Englishman attempting to ride roughshod over Ireland.

We also very much should be able to rely on European solidarity.

I think though we should be preparing for a rough ride over the next few months. I don't think we are adequately prepared. We're in better sted than the UK but we could still be taking this a lot more seriously. A lot of practicalities haven't really been dealt with.

Shelga · 14-06-2019 12:25AM

Did Cameron not have advisors? Did no one say at any point, "ok, what happens if Leave wins? What happens next?"- and how did this not then lead to a less vague question on the ballot paper? Or at least, come with some sort of stipulation that there would have to be another public vote at the end of the article 50 notice period. Something... anything. Anything other than the absolute fiasco this has become.

Also Chuka Ummuna- I totally understand why he is now switching to Lib Dem, but surely shouldn't there be a by-election in his constituency now? His constituents voted him in as a Labour MP, not as a Change UK one and not as a a Lib Dem. All this chopping and changing does not reflect well on him, IMO.

20silkcut · 14-06-2019 12:28AM

In my opinion the true chuchillian figure in this debate is Dominic grieve. There is a man standing against the tide if ever there was one. And there is not a shadow of a doubt, if Churchill was still knocking around, he would be a million miles from the lunatics in the ERG etc.
Boris, if you were to compare him to a historical figure is more in the Mussolini mould , posturing , full of bluster , fond of the women, run with the hare and hunt with the hound and will, metaphorically speaking, end up hanging upside down from a lamp post when it all goes tits up.

Lackadaisical · 14-06-2019 01:07AM

The only Tories that's have impressed me as a genuine statesmen in this have been John Major and Anna Soubry. Both are willing to stand up for what they believe and for the stability of the UK.

You can see the current front benchers are already more concerned about their positions in a potential Johnson cabinet than about the country or anything else.

Major has made some really pragmatic and positive interventions as the elder statesman figure but nobody seems to be listening. It just shows how bonkers the Tories have become. Effectively they have absorbed UKIP and their own distinct identity is no more.

It's a bit like the US Republicans being slowly engulfed by the Tea Party until they became indistinguishable.

I can't really see the Tories being able to get over this mess anytime soon. They're beyond help. Unfortunately, I think Johnson will be Britain's Trump. It may also go a lot worse as it's easier to sink a smaller ship and I think the British public are much more cynical about strongmen leaders then the majority of Americans. If this goes wrong and the economy falls apart, I think you're looking at the Poll Tax riots or worse.

Peregrinus · 14-06-2019 02:09AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Is there any chance do you think, that the good of the country in UK might outweigh the good of the Tory Party?

No, none.

J Mysterio · 14-06-2019 02:33AM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The only Tories that's have impressed me as a genuine statesmen in this have been John Major and Anna Soubry. Both are willing to stand up for what they believe and for the stability of the UK.

You can see the current front benchers are already more concerned about their positions in a potential Johnson cabinet than about the country or anything else.

Major has made some really pragmatic and positive interventions as the elder statesman figure but nobody seems to be listening. It just shows how bonkers the Tories have become. Effectively they have absorbed UKIP and their own distinct identity is no more.

It's a bit like the US Republicans being slowly engulfed by the Tea Party until they became indistinguishable.

I can't really see the Tories being able to get over this mess anytime soon. They're beyond help. Unfortunately, I think Johnson will be Britain's Trump. It may also go a lot worse as it's easier to sink a smaller ship and I think the British public are much more cynical about strongmen leaders then the majority of Americans. If this goes wrong and the economy falls apart, I think you're looking at the Poll Tax riots or worse.

Michael Hesseltine had a few words to say too, though I agree RE Major and Soubry. Possibly Ken Clarke also. Three of those four don't really have the vigour of youth on their side though unfortunately, and only two are MP's. One does struggle to think of many more names at all. There is Dominic Grieve who has made a good contribution. Overall though, poor show, and the Tories should be absolutely finished.

Boris will be leader though, and thus PM. Britain will almost certainly have a shambolic, damaging Brexit under his stewardship. The only hope for Britain then is if they quickly see sense, find humility, and start building up again from a grounded position.

A bad Brexit should at least be unifying in that it will be clear to all what a calamitous blunder the whole sh1t thing was. And I'm sure the EU would be kind - again - in negotiations. Maybe perspectives will change and the warring, nihilistic, arrogant attitude will abate.

Britain needs to take all the showbiz and nonsense out of British politics after this. All the cloak and dagger stuff with jumped up little twits like Hard Man Steve Baker has to be knocked on the head too. The press will need better regulation, funding will need better regulation and the politicians too. There should be electoral reform. There will need to be more inquiries and real action and enforcement.

RE future Tory leader, I guess Rory Stewart is one potential post Boris, depending on his ongoing performance. He is the only current Tory leader candidate who doesn't repulse me. That said though, if you take a good look, his policies are off the wall also RE Brexit. He's also a little bit too showbiz and schmalzy for me. There aren't very many others contenders.

J Mysterio · 14-06-2019 02:41AM

Back after a 3 month holiday by the way. Things have really move along.

Peregrinus · 14-06-2019 03:22AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Back after a 3 month holiday by the way. Things have really move along.

In the sense that nothing has changed. The UK's options remain deal, no-deal or no-Brexit. The UK is no closer to making a choice between those options than it was when you left.

Strazdas · 14-06-2019 03:53AM

Shelga wrote: »

Did Cameron not have advisors? Did no one say at any point, "ok, what happens if Leave wins? What happens next?"- and how did this not then lead to a less vague question on the ballot paper? Or at least, come with some sort of stipulation that there would have to be another public vote at the end of the article 50 notice period. Something... anything. Anything other than the absolute fiasco this has become.

Also Chuka Ummuna- I totally understand why he is now switching to Lib Dem, but surely shouldn't there be a by-election in his constituency now? His constituents voted him in as a Labour MP, not as a Change UK one and not as a a Lib Dem. All this chopping and changing does not reflect well on him, IMO.

It seems everyone was asleep at the wheel. Where were the media when Cameron was saying the result would be implemented no matter what and there could be no second referendum? Why didn't they challenge him on the legality of what he was saying? The referendum was only advisory and inferior to the Parliament and he had no legal authority to say any of this garbage.

Brexit represents the complete failure of the British political class and the media.

Stop moaning ffs · 14-06-2019 05:43AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Chuka Umunna joins his third party this year:

http://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1139278191070195712

‘I’m going over there to that other party after this photo’

He’s some chancer. Exactly what’s wrong with the remain side having no unified voice and no leadership.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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