Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The only Tories that's have impressed me as a genuine statesmen in this have been John Major and Anna Soubry. Both are willing to stand up for what they believe and for the stability of the UK.

You can see the current front benchers are already more concerned about their positions in a potential Johnson cabinet than about the country or anything else.

Major has made some really pragmatic and positive interventions as the elder statesman figure but nobody seems to be listening. It just shows how bonkers the Tories have become. Effectively they have absorbed UKIP and their own distinct identity is no more.

It's a bit like the US Republicans being slowly engulfed by the Tea Party until they became indistinguishable.

I can't really see the Tories being able to get over this mess anytime soon. They're beyond help. Unfortunately, I think Johnson will be Britain's Trump. It may also go a lot worse as it's easier to sink a smaller ship and I think the British public are much more cynical about strongmen leaders then the majority of Americans. If this goes wrong and the economy falls apart, I think you're looking at the Poll Tax riots or worse.

Michael Hesseltine had a few words to say too, though I agree RE Major and Soubry. Possibly Ken Clarke also. Three of those four don't really have the vigour of youth on their side though unfortunately, and only two are MP's. One does struggle to think of many more names at all. There is Dominic Grieve who has made a good contribution. Overall though, poor show, and the Tories should be absolutely finished.

Boris will be leader though, and thus PM. Britain will almost certainly have a shambolic, damaging Brexit under his stewardship. The only hope for Britain then is if they quickly see sense, find humility, and start building up again from a grounded position.

A bad Brexit should at least be unifying in that it will be clear to all what a calamitous blunder the whole sh1t thing was. And I'm sure the EU would be kind - again - in negotiations. Maybe perspectives will change and the warring, nihilistic, arrogant attitude will abate.

Britain needs to take all the showbiz and nonsense out of British politics after this. All the cloak and dagger stuff with jumped up little twits like Hard Man Steve Baker has to be knocked on the head too. The press will need better regulation, funding will need better regulation and the politicians too. There should be electoral reform. There will need to be more inquiries and real action and enforcement.

RE future Tory leader, I guess Rory Stewart is one potential post Boris, depending on his ongoing performance. He is the only current Tory leader candidate who doesn't repulse me. That said though, if you take a good look, his policies are off the wall also RE Brexit. He's also a little bit too showbiz and schmalzy for me. There aren't very many others contenders.

J Mysterio

Back after a 3 month holiday by the way. Things have really move along.

Peregrinus

J Mysterio wrote: »

Back after a 3 month holiday by the way. Things have really move along.

In the sense that nothing has changed. The UK's options remain deal, no-deal or no-Brexit. The UK is no closer to making a choice between those options than it was when you left.

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

Did Cameron not have advisors? Did no one say at any point, "ok, what happens if Leave wins? What happens next?"- and how did this not then lead to a less vague question on the ballot paper? Or at least, come with some sort of stipulation that there would have to be another public vote at the end of the article 50 notice period. Something... anything. Anything other than the absolute fiasco this has become.

Also Chuka Ummuna- I totally understand why he is now switching to Lib Dem, but surely shouldn't there be a by-election in his constituency now? His constituents voted him in as a Labour MP, not as a Change UK one and not as a a Lib Dem. All this chopping and changing does not reflect well on him, IMO.

It seems everyone was asleep at the wheel. Where were the media when Cameron was saying the result would be implemented no matter what and there could be no second referendum? Why didn't they challenge him on the legality of what he was saying? The referendum was only advisory and inferior to the Parliament and he had no legal authority to say any of this garbage.

Brexit represents the complete failure of the British political class and the media.

Stop moaning ffs

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Chuka Umunna joins his third party this year:

http://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1139278191070195712

‘I’m going over there to that other party after this photo’

He’s some chancer. Exactly what’s wrong with the remain side having no unified voice and no leadership.

Peregrinus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

‘I’m going over there to that other party after this photo’

He’s some chancer. Exactly what’s wrong with the remain side having no unified voice and no leadership.

Mmm. But given that the remain side has no unified voice and no leader, what do you think Umunna to do?

Seems to me that one of the things the EP elections (UK edition) showed was that the party best positioned to unify and lead the remain movement was the Lib Dems. In which Umunna, in joining the Lib Dems, is doing what he can to build unity and promote leadership.

Umunna sits for Streatham, a seat which he won (for Labour) with a majority of 26,000. But when to took the seat on, his predecessor had held it (also for Labour) with a majority of 7,000. So it looks to me as though Umanna has built up a strong personal vote.

The other point worth noting is that when Umanna took on the seat, the majority of 7,000 was a majority over the Lib Dems; the Conservatives were nowhere in Streatham. More recently, the Conservatives have been coming second, following the post-coalition collapse in Lib Dem support, but if the EP elections are a signal that that is now oever, Streatham again becomes a seat that will be contested between Labour and the Lib Dems.

And Streatham is a strongly Remain constituency - 79.5% remain vote in the 2016 referendum. Umanna could perfectly reasonably say that the Labour party fails to represent the wishes of his constituents, and that his duty to his constituents is to find another political home where he will be abole to represent their wishes and interests in a way that he is not in the Labour party. The Lib Dems are the natural fit for that other home.

Zubeneschamali

J Mysterio wrote: »

A bad Brexit should at least be unifying in that it will be clear to all what a calamitous blunder the whole sh1t thing was.

No, the Brexiteers wil just blame Remoaners, the EU bullies, Ireland and our gay immigrant PM, Scotland, the DUP, BMW and especially the French.

They will never, ever admit it was all an idiotic mistake, and we will have to wait for most of them to die before good sense has any chance.

Roger_007

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, the Brexiteers wil just blame Remoaners, the EU bullies, Ireland and our gay immigrant PM, Scotland, the DUP, BMW and especially the French.

They will never, ever admit it was all an idiotic mistake, and we will have to wait for most of them to die before good sense has any chance.

You have to remember that you are talking about people who often refer to the 'spirit of Dunkirk', (an ignominious defeat), as their inspiration.

First Up

Donaldson interview on RTE this morning exemplified the Brexit confusion between a plan and a wish.

BASHIR

First Up wrote: »

Donaldson interview on RTE this morning exemplified the Brexit confusion between a plan and a wish.

The urge to shout at the radio was overwhelming.
He knows exactly why the backstop can't be time limited, yet blames Ireland for being unwilling to compromise.
Can't imagine how frustrated i'd be if I were a SME owner or farmer in the north.

J Mysterio

First Up wrote: »

Donaldson interview on RTE this morning exemplified the Brexit confusion between a plan and a wish.

Ireland created backstop ‘impasse’, says Donaldson - Irish Times

This guy is the expected leader of the DUP post Foster. :rolleyes:

BonnieSituation

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If things could get any weird, it seems that Boris Johnson is in favour of the free movement of people the stopping of which was the one consistent theme of the Leave campaign and the government's efforts to negotiate a deal according to Jonathan Lis, sometimes contributor to Politics.co.uk which is edited by Ian Dunt.

Lis' organisation was working as a think-tank communicating with European embassies in London pushing for a softer Brexit:



Source here.

A cheap analysis is that Johnson will say anything depending on who he is talking to. He seems to fancy himself to be the next Churchill. However, Churchill's patriotism involved self sacrifice for King and country, Johnson's seems very much inclined the opposite way.

Self sacrifice and the slaughter of 4 million innocent but "ghastly" Bengalis don't sit well together.

Call me Al

BASHIR wrote: »

The urge to shout at the radio was overwhelming.
He knows exactly why the backstop can't be time limited, yet blames Ireland for being unwilling to compromise.
Can't imagine how frustrated i'd be if I were a SME owner or farmer in the north.

But their support base in the North doesn't seem to care. In fact talk like this buoys them up. This support base have so much to lose (arguably the most within the UK) but yet are intransigent in their voting patterns.
I can only surmise that the majority are recently using the ballot box, in spite of their own best interests, as an opportunity to vent their collective spleen at the Republic and its supporters, the need to detest us is that overwhelming. Or maybe its fear.
Where is ex-poster Solo Deo Gloria when you need him/her!

Leroy42

I don't see where the hope that a no deal will being many in the UK to their senses.

If anything people are becoming more entrenched in their positions.

Only 37% bothered to vote at the recent EU elections.

And no matter what bad news comes out, it is quickly denied that it has anything to do with Brexit and despite the entire process being a disaster there is little appetite to change anything (ie revoke).

I just don't see that changing no matter how bad things get as they will always be portrayed as EU fault, Ireland fault, TM or whatever.

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If things could get any weird, it seems that Boris Johnson is in favour of the free movement of people the stopping of which was the one consistent theme of the Leave campaign and the government's efforts to negotiate a deal according to Jonathan Lis, sometimes contributor to Politics.co.uk which is edited by Ian Dunt.

Lis' organisation was working as a think-tank communicating with European embassies in London pushing for a softer Brexit:



Source here.

A cheap analysis is that Johnson will say anything depending on who he is talking to. He seems to fancy himself to be the next Churchill. However, Churchill's patriotism involved self sacrifice for King and country, Johnson's seems very much inclined the opposite way.

he was a murderous bigot

Professor Moriarty

lawred2 wrote: »

he was a murderous bigot

Perspective is important though. Churchill is revered as a national hero and statesman in Britain. For Johnson to paint himself as the next Churchill would be clever especially as he is appealing to Tory party members.

20silkcut

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't see where the hope that a no deal will being many in the UK to their senses.

If anything people are becoming more entrenched in their positions.

Only 37% bothered to vote at the recent EU elections.

And no matter what bad news comes out, it is quickly denied that it has anything to do with Brexit and despite the entire process being a disaster there is little appetite to change anything (ie revoke).

I just don't see that changing no matter how bad things get as they will always be portrayed as EU fault, Ireland fault, TM or whatever.

I hope those future queues at immigration when they pop down to Spain , France etc or sitting for hours on end in traffic queues in Calais and Dover etc are not too hard on them.
There will be a certain sense of schadenfruede as they join the non EU queues at airports.
I do feel sorry for remainers but they are pathetically organized and don’t seem to be really bothered enough to get their act together.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't see where the hope that a no deal will being many in the UK to their senses.

If anything people are becoming more entrenched in their positions.

Only 37% bothered to vote at the recent EU elections.

And no matter what bad news comes out, it is quickly denied that it has anything to do with Brexit and despite the entire process being a disaster there is little appetite to change anything (ie revoke).

I just don't see that changing no matter how bad things get as they will always be portrayed as EU fault, Ireland fault, TM or whatever.

While it is, as you say, quickly denied that Brexit-related harm is indeed Brexit-related, it;s not clear that the people who actually suffer the harm believe the denials. And in a no-deal Brexit, the class of people who suffer significant and undeniably Brexit-related harm will be very large indeed. And it will include a great many very influential people. Boris may be minded to f*ck business, but if as PM he actually does f*ck business he'll feel a lot of heat very quickly.

It may well be that people will blame the EU for the harm that befalls them, but they will see that it is Brexit-related, and they will expect the UK government to act to alleviate the harm. And the only possible action that stands any chance of alleviating the harm is making a deal with the EU.

It's all very well to invoke the spirit of the Blitz, Dunkirk, etc. But nobody at the time voted in favour of Dunkirk, or urged the government to prolong the Blitz.

Peregrinus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Perspective is important though. Churchill is revered as a national hero and statesman in Britain. For Johnson to paint himself as the next Churchill would be clever especially as he is appealing to Tory party members.

It may not be that clever; if you compare yourself to Churchill the comparison may not be favourable to you.

"Senator, you're no John Kennedy".

Sam Russell

lawred2 wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A cheap analysis is that Johnson will say anything depending on who he is talking to. He seems to fancy himself to be the next Churchill. However, Churchill's patriotism involved self sacrifice for King and country, Johnson's seems very much inclined the opposite way.

he was a murderous bigot

You are too kind in your assessment of Churchill. He was nowhere as kind as that - a murderous bigot.

He detested the Catholic Irish, the poor, and was a great exponent of war in all its guises. He offered us ferocious war if we did not sign the treaty in 1921.

I think he was a terrible person no matter how he is measured. People who revere him are no better.

trellheim

If anything people are becoming more entrenched in their positions.

Only 37% bothered to vote at the recent EU elections.

Good point and what I had long feared - the majority are starting to harden toward the Dunkirk mentality "its our boat and we're all in it together, lets just get on with it good or bad" , so what the ERG had always hoped for is coming to pass

ancapailldorcha

Below standard posts deleted.

L1011

The DUP should be deeply afraid if Bojo thinks he's the new Churchill - offering to sell NI down the river for port access in WW2 for instance

InTheShadows

Not hugely up on Brexit as it began to bore me some time ago but what are peoples opinions on the "just get on with it and get out" position many are thinking now?

Seems to me if they don't do it now it will be hanging over Europe's head for the long term anyway and will always be lingering in the background.

ancapailldorcha

InTheShadows wrote: »

Not hugely up on Brexit as it began to bore me some time ago but what are peoples opinions on the "just get on with it and get out" position many are thinking now?

Seems to me if they don't do it now it will be hanging over Europe's head for the long term anyway and will always be lingering in the background.

It's the same as "Take back control", ie it's nonsense and I say that because it's too vague to mean anything. MP's don't want no deal. What we're waiting for is either some form of consensus on what might command a majority in the House of Commons or, failing that a hard Brexit come Hallowe'en.

Laois_Man

BJ has stated today that he is anti proroguing parliament.

Sky have also dug up an interview with him from a year ago saying doing live TV debates with political opponents is vitally important.

I guess he'll have to stick to both now - but trouble is, how is a debate between candidates who are all hiding from reality going to be of any use? The only sane one in it (Rory Stewart) will be gone before it happens (if it happens). And chances are, the moderator wouldn't be any better - especially if it's BBC!

Laois_Man

And another old BJ interview has been dug up from when he was London Major. Conducted by Eddie Mair when he was standing in for Andrew Marr

In normal times, this would be hugely damaging - but these are not normal times. But it at least shows the kind of person he is...

The good bit starts around 7 minutes 30 seconds

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

It may not be that clever; if you compare yourself to Churchill the comparison may not be favourable to you.

"Senator, you're no John Kennedy".

Actually, I had thought exactly the same thing! Except that I wondered who would have known Churchill personally and would be in debate with Johnson.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

You are too kind in your assessment of Churchill. He was nowhere as kind as that - a murderous bigot.

He detested the Catholic Irish, the poor, and was a great exponent of war in all its guises. He offered us ferocious war if we did not sign the treaty in 1921.

I think he was a terrible person no matter how he is measured. People who revere him are no better.

It's not the place for a debate about Churchill but you would be surprised at some of his attitudes towards Ireland, its independence and its people. Anyway, what matters is what Tory party members think and they think he is a hero. Johnson is more Trump than Churchill but protrays himself as Churchillian. Anyone with half a brain would see that he is just a buffoon but these are strange times.

ancapailldorcha

My point regarding Churchill was that he's portrayed as the nearest thing the British/English would have to a hero here because he put country before himself and his party. Obviously, history is much more nuanced but I think it's a lot less so with modern Conservatives. It might be a good idea to take any more discussion of Churchill to the History & Heritage forum.