Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Laois_Man · 13-06-2019 01:50PM

Just as a reminder: Beth Rigby questioned BJ's character and his use of language when describing veiled Muslim women as bank robbers and letterbox's and when he described May's deal as a suicide vest wrapped around Britain!

apparently now she's an evil cow but the liars and racists shouldn't be questioned

20silkcut · 13-06-2019 01:53PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The referendum result has sent the party over to the hard right / far right. Cameron will be remembered as the guy who inflicted untold damage on the party and the country - worst PM ever

Fully agreed his place in history is cemented.
I thought his handling of the Scottish referendum in 2014 was poor as well and then shortly after he announced a brexit vote. I remember being incredulous at the time. It was like he was trying to break up the Uk.
I sometimes wonder was he an ERG plant. He went to Eton with Boris and all maybe it was a long term strategy .

bilston · 13-06-2019 01:53PM

The race for second place is what interests me.

McVey is crazier than even Boris so I'd say her votes will probably go to Johnson now.

Leadsom is somewhere in between Johnson and Hunt, probably more in line with Raab, her votes could split.

Not sure about Harper, I hadn't heard of him until about 10 days ago!

Anyway the race for second is very much on, and Boris could yet do something really really silly. However in the current climate that would probably help him rather than hinder him.

VinLieger · 13-06-2019 01:57PM

trellheim wrote: »

Right lads its gonna be no deal I cant see a way out now

Paddy power .... Boris is on 1/5 odds.

No deal in 2019 nodds 21/10

( all other choices at 1/3

I made bets months ago that we would have hard border in 2019 and the pound would hit parity with the euro in 2019, with Boris in the hot seat i think i might be getting paid out

BluePlanet · 13-06-2019 02:15PM

Found this article on a pro-Brexit website proposing the way forward.
-Suggests No Deal, and WTO.
-Suggests a temporary 'Free Trade Agreement' until an actual agreement is made.
-Dismisses the Irish border issue.

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/avoiding-the-trap-of-the-withdrawal-agreement-the-way-ahead-for-a-new-prime-minister/

LeinsterDub · 13-06-2019 02:18PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The Tory Party are screwed. It seems the majority of their MPs are pro No Deal

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1139155458919403521

I'd expect who ever wins will have the shortest or one of the shortest terms as PM in history.

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity

Nody · 13-06-2019 02:19PM

VinLieger wrote: »

I made bets months ago that we would have hard border in 2019 and the pound would hit parity with the euro in 2019, with Boris in the hot seat i think i might be getting paid out

I think the first is relatively likely; the second I'm not so sure about. I agree the pound would drop but so would the euro as people fled to yen and USD instead. The question is if the drop in the pound would be large enough to offset the difference during 2019 (I think once things settle down a bit more they will both recover with the euro taking a stronger lead over time leading to parity and beyond).

Hurrache · 13-06-2019 02:28PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1139155458919403521

I'd expect who ever wins will have the shortest or one of the shortest terms as PM in history.

Sure all they're missing anyway is a civil war.

Christy42 · 13-06-2019 02:46PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Yeah, they got banned because Johnson whips were demanding photos of the ballot paper from those who said they'd vote for him to prove they did.

Link? That should get you permanently barred from running for office ever again IMO.

Absolutely trying to make the vote completely undemocratic.

trellheim · 13-06-2019 02:50PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Link? That should get you permanently barred from running for office ever again IMO.

Absolutely trying to make the vote completely undemocratic.

Doing the rounds on twitter

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2019 02:55PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Found this article on a pro-Brexit website proposing the way forward.
-Suggests No Deal, and WTO.
-Suggests a temporary 'Free Trade Agreement' until an actual agreement is made.
-Dismisses the Irish border issue.

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/avoiding-the-trap-of-the-withdrawal-agreement-the-way-ahead-for-a-new-prime-minister/

"Temporary free trade agreement" screams extension which means offering the EU and general election or a People's Vote.

Headshot · 13-06-2019 03:04PM

Rory Steward the only Conservative that is some what likeable among the contenders for PM.

Leroy42 · 13-06-2019 03:06PM

Temporary FTA? What incentive would there be for the UK to remove itself for that? They won't pay the monies owed, no backstop and FTA? Where is the 'win' for the EU in that?

The UK seem to forget that all the other EU countries have their own electorate to answer to.

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2019 03:10PM

Headshot wrote: »

Rory Steward the only Conservative that is some what likeable among the contenders for PM.

There's the problem. A candidate with broad appeal might be able to help heal the schism in British society but the Conservative party membership is probably going to prioritize Boris' bombast over Stewart's sensibility.

Water John · 13-06-2019 03:16PM

Odds are it'll be Hunt V Johnson. Live TV debate next Tues I think. Also the final two have to put up £150K for the conservative members vote. Is that a joke?
The final two will do a series of meetings all around the country. Will Boris last without, foot in mouth?
They can't do a Bertie Ahern on him and run him around so fast that the media can't ask him a question.

marno21 · 13-06-2019 03:34PM

To me it seems that what this leadership contest is demonstrating the most is how ineffective the opposition is - even a moderately fit for purpose opposition would make absolute mincemeat of these clowns running for Tory leader, between the scandals, the lack of any understanding on several key issues and their record in Government.

There are no words to describe how desperately the UK needs a Labour party with a leader who does more than sit on a fence and reaches beyond "I think it would be great if I were PM".

Strazdas · 13-06-2019 03:37PM

20silkcut wrote: »

Fully agreed his place in history is cemented.
I thought his handling of the Scottish referendum in 2014 was poor as well and then shortly after he announced a brexit vote. I remember being incredulous at the time. It was like he was trying to break up the Uk.
I sometimes wonder was he an ERG plant. He went to Eton with Boris and all maybe it was a long term strategy .

The UK had virtually no history of referenda but suddenly Cameron in his arrogance thought he could start using them as a political tool. Brexit was an accident waiting to happen : under UK law, referendums have very little legal status but Cameron announced that the referendum was more important than Parliament and he would implement the result no matter what.

trellheim · 13-06-2019 04:04PM

Water John wrote: »

Odds are it'll be Hunt V Johnson. Live TV debate next Tues I think. Also the final two have to put up £150K for the conservative members vote. Is that a joke?
The final two will do a series of meetings all around the country. Will Boris last without, foot in mouth?
They can't do a Bertie Ahern on him and run him around so fast that the media can't ask him a question.

Boris winning depends on him not having to answer hard questions. If he keeps his mouth shut . Its also worth noting he has no ministry and no portfolio at the moment so has all the time in the world to devote to this and has had plenty of time to put together a professional team . Is Lynton Crosby on board, who is the string puller here does anyone know ?

Sam Russell · 13-06-2019 04:07PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The UK had virtually no history of referenda but suddenly Cameron in his arrogance thought he could start using them as a political tool. Brexit was an accident waiting to happen : under UK law, referendums have very little legal status but Cameron announced that the referendum was more important than Parliament and he would implement the result no matter what.

Except he didn't.

His 'success' with the Scottish one was based on a lie - that he would increase the powers of the Scottish Assembly which never happened - in fact the UK Gov removed some powers to itself.

He tried to do the same trick with the EU by going to Brussels to demand more opt outs but got little, and so painted the picture that the UK was subservient to the EU and thus bolstered the Brexit side. He should have required either a super majority - say 60%, or he should have required that each part of the UK voted for exit, or both.

He gambled and lost so ran away.

20silkcut · 13-06-2019 04:30PM

He was one of the most reckless pms in British history. Remember the tight opinion poll before the Scottish referendum and the queen got in a panic and Cameron dashed to Scotland, he looked a complete twit he confirmed it two years later. When the history books are written the harsh spotlight will definitely be on him and deservedly so.
Blame firmly at his door. We are all going to pay for it unfortunately.

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2019 04:38PM

If things could get any weird, it seems that Boris Johnson is in favour of the free movement of people the stopping of which was the one consistent theme of the Leave campaign and the government's efforts to negotiate a deal according to Jonathan Lis, sometimes contributor to Politics.co.uk which is edited by Ian Dunt.

Lis' organisation was working as a think-tank communicating with European embassies in London pushing for a softer Brexit:

One day I talked to an ambassador who was particularly scathing about the level of chaos, disrespect and shambolic diplomacy. At one moment they leaned forward and said (exact words): ‘Boris Johnson has been openly telling us that he is personally in favour of free movement.’

Source here.

A cheap analysis is that Johnson will say anything depending on who he is talking to. He seems to fancy himself to be the next Churchill. However, Churchill's patriotism involved self sacrifice for King and country, Johnson's seems very much inclined the opposite way.

Enzokk · 13-06-2019 05:03PM

firemansam4 wrote: »

If come October Europe say no to any more extentions and give the UK one last chance to approve the WA.

Parliament has one straight choice of a vote between either No deal or the WA, I wonder what way that would go?
What way would Labour members vote? You would think that rational heads would have to just go with the WA rather than driving the UK over the cliff.
I can't see parliament voting for no deal under this circumstance.

Well we know that Labour will get hammered if they assist the UK leaving the EU and it has bad consequences. For me the choice is clear, but I know it is not that clear cut. They have lambasted May's deal so they cannot turn around and support it all of a sudden either, not without facing the wrath of their mainly remain base.

Strazdas · 13-06-2019 05:11PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Except he didn't.

His 'success' with the Scottish one was based on a lie - that he would increase the powers of the Scottish Assembly which never happened - in fact the UK Gov removed some powers to itself.

He tried to do the same trick with the EU by going to Brussels to demand more opt outs but got little, and so painted the picture that the UK was subservient to the EU and thus bolstered the Brexit side. He should have required either a super majority - say 60%, or he should have required that each part of the UK voted for exit, or both.

He gambled and lost so ran away.

Absolutely : he took a gamble on the roulette wheel with his country's future and arrogantly thought he couldn't lose the referendum. All of the ensuing chaos has happened because he made no preparation for Leave winning. It was an utter disaster waiting to happen.

Sam Russell · 13-06-2019 05:18PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Absolutely : he took a gamble on the roulette wheel with his country's future and arrogantly thought he couldn't lose the referendum. All of the ensuing chaos has happened because he made no preparation for Leave winning. It was an utter disaster waiting to happen.

It was not just the lack of preparation if Leave won, it was lack of loading the dice to make sure Leave lost.

I mentioned using a super majority, but he should have made sure the question included a follow up referendum to back the actual terms of leaving - that is a second referendum. He should have also made clear in the legislation that leaving without a deal was ruled out either directly or required a much larger super majority.

He should never have been PM.

Spanish Eyes · 13-06-2019 05:19PM

How do you reckon BJ will do in a debate with the remaining (sorry) candidates? Not sure about Hunt, must check him out.

Such a pity that it looks like a tiny voice of reason in all this..... Rory Stewart may be knocked out next round. But even so, I think he may be a voice of the future. If there is any future for the Tories after all this that is.

Enzokk · 13-06-2019 05:33PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

"Temporary free trade agreement" screams extension which means offering the EU and general election or a People's Vote.

Boris Johnson mentioned a Temporary FTA the other day. I am sure that is not a coincidence. Has anyone seen the authors of that paper?

The Authors:

Martin Howe QC, 8 New Square; Chairman, Lawyers for Britain; Author, The Cost of Transition: Few Gains, Much Pain? (2017) and How to leave the EU: Legal and Trade Priorities for the New Britain (2016).

Sir Richard Aikens PC, Brick Court Chambers; Lord Justice of Appeal (2008-15).

Dr T. D. Grant, Fellow, Lauterpracht Centre for International Law, Cambridge; Senior Research Fellow, Wolfson College, Cambridge

I see lawyers here, not trade experts. I don't know what type of expertise they would have in either the negotiation of a trade deal or the practicalities of it either. They may have a inside edge on the legality of a trade agreement, not the insides of the agreement itself though.

Martin Howe in particular seems to have been advocating for a hard Brexit for a long time so I will treat any paper he publishes with a lot of caution.

https://brexitcentral.com/author/martin-howe-qc/

I still don't see why the EU would agree to a temporary FTA until a permanent one is agreed without the WA. There is no benefit to the EU at all and I doubt they will change tack all of a sudden and give the UK what they want. All of this is more fantasy stuff from Brexiteers.

Joe_ Public · 13-06-2019 05:42PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

How do you reckon BJ will do in a debate with the remaining (sorry) candidates? Not sure about Hunt, must check him out.

Such a pity that it looks like a tiny voice of reason in all this..... Rory Stewart may be knocked out next round. But even so, I think he may be a voice of the future. If there is any future for the Tories after all this that is.

Hunt is the one who claims he will be able to reopen and renegotiate the WA bill because both Macron and Merkel have personally told him so. I forget which one but there was a hunt supporter interviewed this morning who clarified that what Merkel was saying was they could have discussions about the backstop but only if the Irish gov was amenable to it. That's almost certainly what hunt is elevating into personal assurances about a new deal. If its even possible I think he has less credibility than Boris.

Stop moaning ffs · 13-06-2019 05:47PM

I just listened to two of the screwiest podcast interviews.
In which one of the contenders said the EU are trying to trap Britain to remain in the EU, then the next contender went onto echo the above sentiment but also add the ‘wiggle room’ nonsense and EU will reopen the backstop, completely contradicting themselves within a minute or two.

These people are completely deranged. Delusion was weeks ago. We are now into deranged.

Enzokk · 13-06-2019 05:55PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Hunt is the one who claims he will be able to reopen and renegotiate the WA bill because both Macron and Merkel have personally told him so. I forget which one but there was a hunt supporter interviewed this morning who clarified that what Merkel was saying was they could have discussions about the backstop but only if the Irish gov was amenable to it. That's almost certainly what hunt is elevating into personal assurances about a new deal. If its even possible I think he has less credibility than Boris.

Hunt was also economical with the use of statistics and the justification for trying to get a new contract for Junior Doctors. Remember him saying they don't work over weekends? Or that more people dies over the weekend so he wants to turn the service into a 7 day service?

The Guardian view on statistics and NHS reforms: Jeremy Hunt’s number games

He has a penchant for being economical with the truth it seems. He was also the Culture Secretary who approved the takeover of Newscorp of Sky before the hacking scandal came out.

Joe_ Public · 13-06-2019 06:08PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Hunt was also economical with the use of statistics and the justification for trying to get a new contract for Junior Doctors. Remember him saying they don't work over weekends? Or that more people dies over the weekend so he wants to turn the service into a 7 day service?

The Guardian view on statistics and NHS reforms: Jeremy Hunt’s number games

He has a penchant for being economical with the truth it seems. He was also the Culture Secretary who approved the takeover of Newscorp of Sky before the hacking scandal came out.

Absolutely, Adam Kay had a piece in thee guardian yesterday or day before that totally nailed him on the junior doctors issue. The record in office of so e of these candidates is so deplorable you wonder about a political culture that is putting them so close to power. Gove did wretched stuff as education minister, McVey was a calamity in health and pensions or whatever that department is called. How Johnson can still have anyone back him after what he did in the foreign office is beyond any rational thinking. I like the cut of Rory Stewarts jib but, jeez, that is a low bar to be set against in almost every category.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments