Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

"Temporary free trade agreement" screams extension which means offering the EU and general election or a People's Vote.

Boris Johnson mentioned a Temporary FTA the other day. I am sure that is not a coincidence. Has anyone seen the authors of that paper?

The Authors:

Martin Howe QC, 8 New Square; Chairman, Lawyers for Britain; Author, The Cost of Transition: Few Gains, Much Pain? (2017) and How to leave the EU: Legal and Trade Priorities for the New Britain (2016).

Sir Richard Aikens PC, Brick Court Chambers; Lord Justice of Appeal (2008-15).

Dr T. D. Grant, Fellow, Lauterpracht Centre for International Law, Cambridge; Senior Research Fellow, Wolfson College, Cambridge

I see lawyers here, not trade experts. I don't know what type of expertise they would have in either the negotiation of a trade deal or the practicalities of it either. They may have a inside edge on the legality of a trade agreement, not the insides of the agreement itself though.

Martin Howe in particular seems to have been advocating for a hard Brexit for a long time so I will treat any paper he publishes with a lot of caution.

https://brexitcentral.com/author/martin-howe-qc/

I still don't see why the EU would agree to a temporary FTA until a permanent one is agreed without the WA. There is no benefit to the EU at all and I doubt they will change tack all of a sudden and give the UK what they want. All of this is more fantasy stuff from Brexiteers.

Joe_ Public

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

How do you reckon BJ will do in a debate with the remaining (sorry) candidates? Not sure about Hunt, must check him out.

Such a pity that it looks like a tiny voice of reason in all this..... Rory Stewart may be knocked out next round. But even so, I think he may be a voice of the future. If there is any future for the Tories after all this that is.

Hunt is the one who claims he will be able to reopen and renegotiate the WA bill because both Macron and Merkel have personally told him so. I forget which one but there was a hunt supporter interviewed this morning who clarified that what Merkel was saying was they could have discussions about the backstop but only if the Irish gov was amenable to it. That's almost certainly what hunt is elevating into personal assurances about a new deal. If its even possible I think he has less credibility than Boris.

Stop moaning ffs

I just listened to two of the screwiest podcast interviews.
In which one of the contenders said the EU are trying to trap Britain to remain in the EU, then the next contender went onto echo the above sentiment but also add the ‘wiggle room’ nonsense and EU will reopen the backstop, completely contradicting themselves within a minute or two.

These people are completely deranged. Delusion was weeks ago. We are now into deranged.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Hunt is the one who claims he will be able to reopen and renegotiate the WA bill because both Macron and Merkel have personally told him so. I forget which one but there was a hunt supporter interviewed this morning who clarified that what Merkel was saying was they could have discussions about the backstop but only if the Irish gov was amenable to it. That's almost certainly what hunt is elevating into personal assurances about a new deal. If its even possible I think he has less credibility than Boris.

Hunt was also economical with the use of statistics and the justification for trying to get a new contract for Junior Doctors. Remember him saying they don't work over weekends? Or that more people dies over the weekend so he wants to turn the service into a 7 day service?

The Guardian view on statistics and NHS reforms: Jeremy Hunt’s number games

He has a penchant for being economical with the truth it seems. He was also the Culture Secretary who approved the takeover of Newscorp of Sky before the hacking scandal came out.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

Hunt was also economical with the use of statistics and the justification for trying to get a new contract for Junior Doctors. Remember him saying they don't work over weekends? Or that more people dies over the weekend so he wants to turn the service into a 7 day service?

The Guardian view on statistics and NHS reforms: Jeremy Hunt’s number games

He has a penchant for being economical with the truth it seems. He was also the Culture Secretary who approved the takeover of Newscorp of Sky before the hacking scandal came out.

Absolutely, Adam Kay had a piece in thee guardian yesterday or day before that totally nailed him on the junior doctors issue. The record in office of so e of these candidates is so deplorable you wonder about a political culture that is putting them so close to power. Gove did wretched stuff as education minister, McVey was a calamity in health and pensions or whatever that department is called. How Johnson can still have anyone back him after what he did in the foreign office is beyond any rational thinking. I like the cut of Rory Stewarts jib but, jeez, that is a low bar to be set against in almost every category.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

It was not just the lack of preparation if Leave won, it was lack of loading the dice to make sure Leave lost.

I mentioned using a super majority, but he should have made sure the question included a follow up referendum to back the actual terms of leaving - that is a second referendum. He should have also made clear in the legislation that leaving without a deal was ruled out either directly or required a much larger super majority.

He should never have been PM.

In fact, he openly sneered at the idea of a second referendum and even contributed to the narrative that such a referendum would be "undemocratic".

One ghastly mistake after another : overestimating his chances of winning, underestimating the rise of the English far right and their willingness to promise the sun, moon and stars to a gullible public.

trellheim

I would say if Boris gets in we will see an immediate vote of confidence which could force a GE

trellheim

trellheim wrote: »

I would say if Boris gets in we will see an immediate vote of confidence which could force a GE

You could also say that when the PM election is over, any of them will face a vote of confidence, it's the party that the opposition have lost confidence in not just the PM.

Laois_Man

trellheim wrote: »

I would say if Boris gets in we will see an immediate vote of confidence which could force a GE

While Labour sees the possibility of the Tory's destroying itself? My bet would be they will sit tight!

BonnieSituation

Boris v Corbyn in a GE only has one winner.

Labour aren't getting a look in at all with this contest ongoing. Feels like the Tories are rehabilitating themselves with it.

Spanish Eyes

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Boris v Corbyn in a GE only has one winner.

Labour aren't getting a look in at all with this contest ongoing. Feels like the Tories are rehabilitating themselves with it.

It is just baffling to me how Labour supporters are prepared to let this happen with Corbyn at the helm. I just cannot figure it out. But there may be a reason, and I know Momentum is behind it all, but for what really?

What is their goal?

Spanish Eyes

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

It is just baffling to me how Labour supporters are prepared to let this happen with Corbyn at the helm. I just cannot figure it out. But there may be a reason, and I know Momentum is behind it all, but for what really?

What is their goal?

To stay out of government until after the SHTF moment and then return as the "white knights in shining armour" to the rescue.

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

It is just baffling to me how Labour supporters are prepared to let this happen with Corbyn at the helm. I just cannot figure it out. But there may be a reason, and I know Momentum is behind it all, but for what really?

What is their goal?

Interestingly, the vast majority of Momentum members are pro EU.

An Ciarraioch

Change UK will now become TIG FC (The Independent Group For Change):

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48629838

Capt'n Midnight

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

What is their goal?

Sneaky Brexit.


When they get into power they can join the customs union and nationalise and subsidise the trade union jobs and block immigration and what ever you're having yourself

"some of our unicorns are different"

Deleted User wrote: »

To stay out of government until after the SHTF moment and then return as the "white knights in shining armour" to the rescue.

To do this they'd have to get back into power before the Tories destroy the unions and the NHS and the country. And what is their plan to become electable ?


Resuscitation Rambo murdered at least 85 people in an attempt to look like a hero

The squeeze on public finances translates into 30,000 excess deaths a year in England :mad:

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Change UK will now become TIG FC (The Independent Group For Change):

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48629838

This their 5th name or 6th?

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Interestingly, the vast majority of Momentum members are pro EU.

I'd say that they are more pro-Remain than pro-EU. I would be surprised if they weren't extremely keen on linking up with other Socialist movements across Europe to move the EU in a more left-wing direction, especially on workers' rights, climate change and tax avoidance. When I attended the various marches in London, there were a fair few Socialists out.

An Ciarraioch

Chuka Umunna joins his third party this year:

http://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1139278191070195712

BonnieSituation

That was inevitable really.

Hopefully the rest of the Change crew that abandoned ship after the EU elections, join him.

Spanish Eyes

Lib Dems to me seem to the best place for those who are neither Tory Leavers nor Labour as they are now with Corbyn.

They have a great option of cutting through the middle.

But money. funding and so on is the key.

devnull

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That was inevitable really.

Hopefully the rest of the Change crew that abandoned ship after the EU elections, join him.

He's seen sense, the rest of them should do the same.

Won't get my hopes up though as a few of them were recently saying that they see challenging Lib Dems as their main priority which is very odd as they'd be helping the Brexiteers.

Rain Ascending

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Lib Dems to me seem to the best place for those who are neither Tory Leavers nor Labour as they are now with Corbyn.

They have a great option of cutting through the middle.

But money. funding and so on is the key.

... and infrastructure. As Change UK found out to its cost, lack of access to a professional and savvy central office can make you look unprofessional and unfocused. And as the Brexit Party found out to its cost in Petersborough, not having an on-the-ground organization to canvas and get out your vote can mean the difference between winning and losing.

So, yes, while the Lib Dems are a fairly natural fit for many of the Change UK crowd on policy and even ideological terms, there is an element of the need to survive and, in fairness, understandably so.

If more Change UK and ex-Change UK MPs move across, there is one really important point to note. In the (likely) event of a vote of no confidence, the likelihood of these MPs voting against the Tory government is a near certainty. As independents or members of an ineffectual party like Change UK, there was always a chance they might abstain to try to postpone a general election. (Three ex-Labour independents did exactly just that in the January vote of no confidence.) As part of the Liberal Democrats, subject to a Lib Dem whip, that just won't happen.

This is a small, but significant step to a general election in the UK.

BonnieSituation

devnull wrote: »

He's seen sense, the rest of them should do the same.

Won't get my hopes up though as a few of them were recently saying that they see challenging Lib Dems as their main priority which is very odd as they'd be helping the Brexiteers.

Sure if they had pooled the lists during the Euro elections then they all would have been better off.

Spanish Eyes

Is there any chance do you think, that the good of the country in UK might outweigh the good of the Tory Party?

Infini

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Chuka Umunna joins his third party this year:

http://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1139278191070195712

3rd times the charm as they say. That being said Lib Dem's are the only logical choice at this point, Conservative's are on a kamikaze course and so long as Corbyn is Labour leader they're impotent and of no use.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Is there any chance do you think, that the good of the country in UK might outweigh the good of the Tory Party?

The biggest amount of votes is for Boris. That tell's you all they need they'll burn the place to the ground 1st than admit they fecked up.

Lackadaisical

The only optimistic hope is that Boris is just posturing and playing to an audience and when he gets into office he turns out to be far more pragmatic.

Personally, I think it's clutching at straws. He's a long established Eurosceptic and his track record speaks for itself.

I could see him being extremely undiplomatic with Ireland and attempting to bully us into line. If he does, I think we should simply throw him to the wolves of American public opinion. There are still a lot of Americans who don't react too well to what would look like and actually be someone who sounds like an upper class Englishman attempting to ride roughshod over Ireland.

We also very much should be able to rely on European solidarity.

I think though we should be preparing for a rough ride over the next few months. I don't think we are adequately prepared. We're in better sted than the UK but we could still be taking this a lot more seriously. A lot of practicalities haven't really been dealt with.

Shelga

Did Cameron not have advisors? Did no one say at any point, "ok, what happens if Leave wins? What happens next?"- and how did this not then lead to a less vague question on the ballot paper? Or at least, come with some sort of stipulation that there would have to be another public vote at the end of the article 50 notice period. Something... anything. Anything other than the absolute fiasco this has become.

Also Chuka Ummuna- I totally understand why he is now switching to Lib Dem, but surely shouldn't there be a by-election in his constituency now? His constituents voted him in as a Labour MP, not as a Change UK one and not as a a Lib Dem. All this chopping and changing does not reflect well on him, IMO.

20silkcut

In my opinion the true chuchillian figure in this debate is Dominic grieve. There is a man standing against the tide if ever there was one. And there is not a shadow of a doubt, if Churchill was still knocking around, he would be a million miles from the lunatics in the ERG etc.
Boris, if you were to compare him to a historical figure is more in the Mussolini mould , posturing , full of bluster , fond of the women, run with the hare and hunt with the hound and will, metaphorically speaking, end up hanging upside down from a lamp post when it all goes tits up.

Lackadaisical

The only Tories that's have impressed me as a genuine statesmen in this have been John Major and Anna Soubry. Both are willing to stand up for what they believe and for the stability of the UK.

You can see the current front benchers are already more concerned about their positions in a potential Johnson cabinet than about the country or anything else.

Major has made some really pragmatic and positive interventions as the elder statesman figure but nobody seems to be listening. It just shows how bonkers the Tories have become. Effectively they have absorbed UKIP and their own distinct identity is no more.

It's a bit like the US Republicans being slowly engulfed by the Tea Party until they became indistinguishable.

I can't really see the Tories being able to get over this mess anytime soon. They're beyond help. Unfortunately, I think Johnson will be Britain's Trump. It may also go a lot worse as it's easier to sink a smaller ship and I think the British public are much more cynical about strongmen leaders then the majority of Americans. If this goes wrong and the economy falls apart, I think you're looking at the Poll Tax riots or worse.

Peregrinus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Is there any chance do you think, that the good of the country in UK might outweigh the good of the Tory Party?

No, none.