Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha · 26-05-2019 10:41pm #1

This is the ninth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

As we are approaching the critical end of March 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:

Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 10:47pm

Labour's results are bad, the Conservatives seems ten times worse. They have lost more than half their vote and in some areas finished lower than 5th. Brexit has broken UK politics, like people warned and if Labour doesn't act responsibility both main parties could be decimated.

The problem is that the Brexit that is delivered will be sold as a failure by Farage and he will use that to catapult himself and his party into the House Of Commons at the expense of mainly Conservative votes.

I thought May was the worst PM in history, I have changed my mind and am fully convinced it is Cameron and it isn't even close. May had one job and she failed. The job was extremely difficult and she didn't help herself though as mitigation. Cameron set the country and his party up to fail. He could be responsible for the break up of the Conservatives and the UK. Corbyn need a slow hand clap as well, seeing as people told him to take a stance on Brexit and his dithering is costing his party as well. This is fascinating in a bizarre way.

Edit: of Islington, Corbyn's backyard.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132765460150325248

He lost to the Libdems in his own seat.

RickBlaine · 26-05-2019 10:50pm

Any possibility Corbyn will be forced out after these results?

Headshot · 26-05-2019 10:52pm

Seems SNP are miles ahead in Scotland

Labour Scotland are in danger of getting their worse results ever.

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 10:55pm

Corbyn will be in a tight spot tonight. Either he will have to back Remain and a second referendum or he will be challenged. Emily Thornberry has followed Tom Watson stating Labour has to back a 2nd referendum and Remain.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1132759872066375680

And in other good news, Yaxley-Lennon will not be making money off EU tax payers at least.

https://twitter.com/lowles_nick/status/1132762251826536448

Harry Palmr · 26-05-2019 10:56pm

Lib Dems and Greens flourishing in the rural East of England.

Akrasia · 26-05-2019 10:59pm

Enzokk wrote: »

Labour's results are bad, the Conservatives seems ten times worse. They have lost more than half their vote and in some areas finished lower than 5th. Brexit has broken UK politics, like people warned and if Labour doesn't act responsibility both main parties could be decimated.

The problem is that the Brexit that is delivered will be sold as a failure by Farage and he will use that to catapult himself and his party into the House Of Commons at the expense of mainly Conservative votes.

I thought May was the worst PM in history, I have changed my mind and am fully convinced it is Cameron and it isn't even close. May had one job and she failed. The job was extremely difficult and she didn't help herself though as mitigation. Cameron set the country and his party up to fail. He could be responsible for the break up of the Conservatives and the UK. Corbyn need a slow hand clap as well, seeing as people told him to take a stance on Brexit and his dithering is costing his party as well. This is fascinating in a bizarre way.

Edit: of Islington, Corbyn's backyard.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132765460150325248

He lost to the Libdems in his own seat.

May could have delivered a semi sensible brexit if she had made even the slightest attempt to reach across the aisle instead of pandering to the extremists in her party. She is worse than Cameron for me because she clung on for so long and emboldened the far right with her hard line 'no deal is better than a bad deal' soundbyte.

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 11:02pm

So the North-East of England has sent 2 Brexit MEPs and one Labour MEP to the EU. This is contrast to one UKIP and two Labour in 2014.

The East of England will send 3 Brexit MEPs, 2 LibDems, 1 Green and 1 Conservative. This is in contrast to 3 UKIP, 1 Labour and 3 Conservative in 2014.

So it is one more MEP for Brexit Party over UKIP so far.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132759955415752709

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132767110340521986

Harry Palmr · 26-05-2019 11:05pm

Lib Dems 3 London seats, Lab 2, Brex 2, Greens 1.

Tories no seats at all.

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 11:06pm

Akrasia wrote: »

May could have delivered a semi sensible brexit if she had made even the slightest attempt to reach across the aisle instead of pandering to the extremists in her party. She is worse than Cameron for me because she clung on for so long and emboldened the far right with her hard line 'no deal is better than a bad deal' soundbyte.

I was of this thinking but what turns it for me is that she took a hard job, possibly even improbable to deliver. She made it impossible by wanting to stop free movement and it cascaded from there.

But what sways it for me now is that Cameron had no reason to call an election and he ran the campaign as well. Look at it this way, without Cameron calling the referendum May never would have become PM. So he set her up for failure for what was an unnecessary decisions. So he takes it from her.

26-05-2019 11:12pm

If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.

Headshot · 26-05-2019 11:16pm

Actually the Greens are very pro Europe too

Hurrache · 26-05-2019 11:18pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.

Out of all the parties you mention the Green Party and Lib Dems are remain/second ref parties. So your point argues the opposite to your conclusion I think.

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 11:18pm

Deleted User wrote: »

If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.

I think the results will probably be quite close if you take the Brexit vote against the remain votes of the Libdems and Greens. It is probably a fair reflection that at least in a low turnout election that Brexit will be favoured. But I believe, if the previous elections are a guide, more older voters will vote than younger voters. So if the turnout is low it means lower participation of the group most likely to vote remain, so I don't know if you can take anything from this results.

LuckyLloyd · 26-05-2019 11:19pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.

Eh, it demonstrates a fairly even polarisation between No Deal / Second Referendum, with a thinly populated middle ground on Brexit. SNP / LDs / Greens / Change UK all favour a second referendum or revocation of A50.

You can also expect Labour to shift to a clear Remain strategy now.

listermint · 26-05-2019 11:20pm

Hurrache wrote: »

Out of all the parties you mention the Green Party and Lib Dems are remain/second ref parties. So your point argues the opposite to your conclusion I think.

And labour is wishy washy on brexit.

So it's nothing of the sort tbh

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-05-2019 11:21pm

My constituency, 3 votes to the SNP from this household

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1132769169928269824

listermint · 26-05-2019 11:22pm

Well one great bit of news Gerrard batten that UKIP ..... Blank.

Has lost his seat.

26-05-2019 11:22pm

Hurrache wrote: »

Out of all the parties you mention the Green Party and Lib Dems are remain/second ref parties. So your point argues the opposite to your conclusion I think.

Not really, green voters put the environment first, the fact that they're pro EU is a secondary consideration, so I stand by my observation.

Headshot · 26-05-2019 11:23pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

My constituency, 3 votes to the SNP from this household

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1132769169928269824

Do you think the European election results will be a catalyst for Scotland independence now?

listermint · 26-05-2019 11:23pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not really, green voters put the environment first, the fact that they're pro EU is a secondary consideration, so I stand by my observation.

It's really not though.

You should be fully aware of Caroline Lucas

I presume...

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-05-2019 11:25pm

Headshot wrote: »

Do you think the European election results will be a catalyst for Scotland independence now?

Not really, obviously pro-EU votes are the majority. The Tories are probably doing more for independence than the SNP. There are still loads of Unionists out there

Hurrache · 26-05-2019 11:26pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not really, green voters put the environment first, the fact that they're pro EU is a secondary consideration, so I stand by my observation.

We'll agree to differ but they've campaigned a lot around freedom of movement and are pro European, and if their electorate weren't pro European etc they simply wouldn't vote for them.

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 11:26pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Not really, green voters put the environment first, the fact that they're pro EU is a secondary consideration, so I stand by my observation.

You are wrong in your observation. The Green Party in the UK ran on a environmental and remain campaign.

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-05-2019 11:27pm

https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/1132772828552531968

Harry Palmr · 26-05-2019 11:29pm

London results in the mix

Brexit 7 (7) 27.9 (+27.9)
Lib Dem 5 (5) 24.1 (+17.4)
Lab 3 (-4) 17.9 (-11.8)
Green 2 (1) 11.9 (+3.7)
Con 1 (-4) 8.6 (-15.3)
Ukip 0 (-1) 3.1 (-21.8)
Others 0 6.5 (-)

The West Midlands has seen Ukip become Brexit 3 for 3.

Headshot · 26-05-2019 11:29pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/1132772828552531968

That her party and especially herself is very impressive

I'm a big fan of Sturgeon

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 11:43pm

The message from the contributors, at least the Conservative ones (Tim Montgomery the latest), are that the message is that they have to leave even if it means with no-deal. The new leader will be under severe to just leave and it will be interesting to see if they will be swayed by the facts of what no-deal will mean and if they still want to do that.

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-05-2019 11:45pm

Headshot wrote: »

That her party and especially herself is very impressive

I'm a big fan of Sturgeon

What is in Dublin tomorrow?

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1132771386240446464

listermint · 26-05-2019 11:46pm

From what I see so far. It's just an exchange of ukips meps for brexit party meps.

The labour and tories have lost out to true remainer parties.

There is zero mandate or change for a real hard brexit with these results. Actually combined remain nip it.

Harry Palmr · 26-05-2019 11:49pm

Exactly so, as someone put it on the BBC - clarity and campaigning has won. Those parties that are unequivocal have thrived while Lab and Con have suffered through being foggy and mealy mouthed and not really contesting the elections anyway.

Akrasia · 26-05-2019 11:51pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.

The greens are absolutely a remain party.

Akrasia · 26-05-2019 11:54pm

Brexit paŕty gains and ukip losses cancel each other out

darem93 · 26-05-2019 11:55pm

Headshot wrote: »

That her party and especially herself is very impressive

I'm a big fan of Sturgeon

She really is brilliant. I think the SNP in general have been fantastic throughout this entire Brexit fiasco. Very clear in their vision but also willing to reach out and compromise when needed.

Enzokk · 26-05-2019 11:59pm

Akrasia wrote: »

Brexit paŕty gains and ukip losses cancel each other out

Does seem like that. I think there will be a increase in their vote from 2014, I consider the Brexit Party as UKIP for this purpose. I think the interesting question is what percentage of Labour remainers voted for other parties and what percentage stayed away as a protest.

Shelga · 27-05-2019 12:00am

Ann Widdecombe just elected as an MEP in the South East. The UK is in extremely dangerous territory if this is the calibre of person they are electing.

Is there something to be said for just letting them leave with no deal at this stage, as they will be forced to accept the backstop within days anyway, if they want any sort of trade deal.

Philip Hammond basically said today that he and others will vote to bring down the government, rather than allow a No Deal exit. But is it their choice to make?

Won't it basically come down to whether the EU lets the UK crash out in October, or grants another extension?

MrMusician18 · 27-05-2019 12:03am

The ninth thread.
Whatever about where this saga ends, I wonder how many threads this will have generated before the story runs out of steam.

Anyone want to take a punt on when the story moves on?!

branie2 · 27-05-2019 12:04am

I wonder if we'll have a pro-Europe PM.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-05-2019 12:06am

Perfect analogy for this whole debacle. NI just isn’t there

https://twitter.com/colmogorman/status/1132754695678828552?s=21

Harry Palmr · 27-05-2019 12:07am

It nearly doesn't matter a damn who the UK send, they'll be gone before the disrupters can do any damage. At most this, combined with the local elections can be seen as a portent for the next GE but as that's single vote FPTP it probably isn't even that really.

Larbre34 · 27-05-2019 12:07am

The Brexit "Party" is the easiest bit of politicking in history. A one-line manifesto that deals with no social policy in an already polarising territory.

Harry Palmr · 27-05-2019 12:08am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Perfect analogy for this whole debacle. NI just isn’t there

https://twitter.com/colmogorman/status/1132754695678828552?s=21

Someone tell O'Gorman the boxes have not been opened as it's God's day (or was it's Monday now) so they are irrelevant as of now.

Akrasia · 27-05-2019 12:10am

Based on todays results it looks like a 2nd referendum would vote remain by a landslide

listermint · 27-05-2019 12:11am

Larbre34 wrote: »

The Brexit "Party" is the easiest bit of politicking in history. A one-line manifesto that deals with no social policy in an already polarising territory.

Nice bit of money to the cheeky folks of brexit party. They'll be rubbing their hands with glee

Enzokk · 27-05-2019 12:11am

The interviews with the Brexit MEPs thinking they will go to the EU and change the negotiations that have been concluded is something else. They want to leave by October 31st and the new EU Commission only starts their work on the 1st November. So they want to change the deal and will do it from the inside the EU but there will not be anyone to negotiate with.

Also, they all want to leave by the 31st October and want to make themselves unemployed. Also, well done to the people of the UK by voting for the Brexit Party, the party of the people who just voted another Rees-Mogg to represent you to make your lives better. You cannot help those that refuse to be helped.

dublinman1990 · 27-05-2019 12:18am

In Wales & Scotland. The Brexit Party has been been hopping mad in those areas. They are at 32% in Wales & 15% in Scotland.

Farage's seat result is now being called live on the BBC One/News Channel in Southampton.

BobbyBobberson · 27-05-2019 12:19am

I follow a lot of Leave figures such as Heaver, Tice and Daubney on Twitter. Cannot believe the likes of them, Widdecombe and others will be in the European Parliament. Brexit is just bonkers.

27-05-2019 12:20am

Akrasia wrote: »

Based on todays results it looks like a 2nd referendum would vote remain by a landslide

How? Few percent in it between the BP + UKIP and LD+GP+CHUK. And with 37% turnout I don't think you can extrapolate too far.

Laois_Man · 27-05-2019 12:20am

Shelga wrote: »

Is there something to be said for just letting them leave with no deal at this stage, as they will be forced to accept the backstop within days anyway, if they want any sort of trade deal.

This has been my opinion all along. It was a mistake to give them any extension beyond April 12th.

Spanish Eyes · 27-05-2019 12:22am

Such a pity that Change UK didn't call themselves the Remain Party.

Or garner a coalition of remainers or something sensible like that.

I have to say the Remain side were abysmal. They did not rebut much and were very fractured party wise.

So now we see the result.

Rjd2 · 27-05-2019 12:22am

listermint wrote: »

Nice bit of money to the cheeky folks of brexit party. They'll be rubbing their hands with glee

Not sure what Nigel will do if they ever actually leave the EU. :pac:
Crap jokes aside, no matter what you think of their "politics" they have performed very well tonight. ChangeUK who have lots of money and some interesting people have absolutely bombed.

I suppose if The Tories are looking for crumbs tonight,they know the hardcore remainers won't defect their anytime soon.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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