Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Christy42

Lucy8080 wrote: »

The Daily Mail have a mainly Turquise map of England ( barring London and some Lib -Dem patches elsewhere). They are calling it a political earthquake from the Brexit Party!

Scotland is entirely Yellow (S.N.P.).For some reason that is not the headline. I think remain parties have (combined) beaten leave parties. Their vote is split along party lines.

Scotland seems to know where it stands on this issue. That is the real earthquake!

Nigel, the man who maybe leading the way to the break -up of the U.K.

Noticed cnn had a story about the success of the far right in Europe which seemed at odds with the results. And I would have had them above the daily mail in terms of quality. They were light on numbers too (and obviously couldn't mention certain countries like Germany where the far right failed).

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Enzokk wrote: »

You are wrong. There are Labour voters that voted Labour because they will always vote Labour. They voted Labour before the referendum and they will vote for them in the future. So they were Labour supporters when the party supported remain and when they were for Brexit. So how do you count them?

I count them as having voted for a soft Brexit party. They could have defected but didn’t.

then you have the voters that are angry at their stance on Brexit but they actually know their MEPs and still voted for the party due to the MEP and not Corbyn. Take the London vote, and very much unscientific add the Brexit Parties together, according to your definition, and you get a 51% share. This is more than during the Brexit referendum so it seems wrong to suggest that all Labour voters are leave voters.

Nobody voted for personal candidates. It’s a party list system. This was clear in the returning officers results if nothing else, did you hear a personal Farage vote?

Then you ignore the polls of Labour members and voters who are overwhelmingly for remain.

I’m aware of those polls. I clearly said that labour remainers have in general defected to the Lib Dems, Greens and other remain parties. Therefore those that voted for labour were in the overwhelming majority pro Brexit. The defectors left because labour was pro Brexit. And yet now it is claimed that all these Labour voters can be considered remain.

But how did Labour voters vote in the referendum? Well according to the below linked article they voted 65-35% for remain.

So tell me again why you think we should count Labour as a Brexit party?

Again because the 65% of labour voters who voted remain probably didn’t vote for labour in this election. Labour got <10% of the votes here compared to 30.4% in the general election which maps exactly to the percentages that you say are remain vs leave.

Maybe there is some stickiness in the labour vote, maybe some voters defected to BP and some remain voters stayed, but as it stands labour is a Brexit party and it makes far more sense to say the reason they lost 60% of their vote was because remainers didn’t vote for them and that therefore what’s left are largely brexit voters.

That analysis makes far more sense than adding all of the labour voters in this election to the remain camp. Either exclude them, because we don’t know exactly or add them to the soft Brexit camp.

listermint

That's a terrible analysis tbh. There is no factual basis for that analysis other than labour leadership are at odds with its base.

Sorry but no

Harry Palmr

It feels as if everyone in the commentariat was so certain the nationalist right would have a big night it'll take a few days for the facts of the matter to sink in.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Lucy8080 wrote: »

The Daily Mail have a mainly Turquise map of England ( barring London and some Lib -Dem patches elsewhere). They are calling it a political earthquake from the Brexit Party!

Scotland is entirely Yellow (S.N.P.).For some reason that is not the headline. I think remain parties have (combined) beaten leave parties. Their vote is split along party lines.

Scotland seems to know where it stands on this issue. That is the real earthquake!

Nigel, the man who maybe leading the way to the break -up of the U.K.

Scotland is always SNP in general elections. And as far as I know European elections. No Earthquake there. For them to win all constituencies is fairly normal.

Leroy42

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Scotland is always SNP in general elections. And as far as I know European elections. No Earthquake there. For them to win all constituencies is fairly normal.

Ah right, so when Brexit Party fails to make any significant inroadds it is simply because the Scots simply vote for the same all the time?

You don't see the clear, and widening, gap between England and Scotland? For a country that deems that the UK must be sovereign, it seems totally au fait with one of the core make up of that union drifting further and further away.

Based on tweets from a number of Tories this morning, it is clear that they see the only way back is to go full on Brexit, with even previous remainers such as Liz Truss stating that they need to leave on 31 Oct Deal or No Deal. You also have the likes of Owen Paterson stating

The UK must now leave the EU by 31st October, ideally with an FTA agreed in principle but, if necessary on WTO terms with practical side deals already agreed.

I was listening to Suella Braverman on R5 last night claiming the result a clear message to get out on No deal if that is what it takes. What annoyed me was the guy debating her (Kinnock I think) didn't simply ask her, as she was previously part of the government, what the reports she had read had claimed about No Deal impacts on jobs etc and what she would do if they came to pass. They never hold them to account for them view that everything will be fine, they are never questioned on what basis they make this judgment.

Lucy8080

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Scotland is always SNP in general elections. And as far as I know European elections. No Earthquake there. For them to win all constituencies is fairly normal.

Their vote stood up,despite the new (no policy,one issue) Brexit party. The Cons/Lab in England would love that sort of guarantee at the polls.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

listermint wrote: »

That's a terrible analysis tbh. There is no factual basis for that analysis other than labour leadership are at odds with its base.

Sorry but no

That’s quite the rebuttal. My analysis that the 10% of labour voters that voted for labour - down from 30% in the election - are pro Corbyn and pro Brexit maps exactly to the Brexit divisions in the Labour Party ie about 70/30 remain.

Assuming that 100% of all the labour voters here are remain when the party lost votes to remain parties flies against that logic. Either Labour Party voters are not to be added to either camp or are to be added to the leave camp. They aren’t certain remain voters though. Which is the analysis here.

listermint

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

That’s quite the rebuttal. My analysis that the 10% of labour voters that voted for labour - down from 30% in the election - are pro Corbyn and pro Brexit maps exactly to the Brexit divisions in the Labour Party ie about 70/30 remain.

Assuming that 100% of all the labour voters here are remain when the party lost votes to remain parties flies against that logic. Either Labour Party voters are not to be added to either camp or are to be added to the leave camp.

That flies in the face of the overtly pro EU meps they voted back in.

As I said your analysis is incredibly poor and is more than coloured by some of your own pro brexit desires and bias

Dyr

I think the real take away might be that we could wind up with a hung EU parliament and Macron has been walloped in France


The danger for us was always that the sands shift under us and we lose the firm support from the EU for our position.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Their vote stood up,despite the new (no policy,one issue) Brexit party. The Cons/Lab in England would love that sort of guarantee at the polls.

Nobody expected anything else. Scotland voted remain. The SNP have been dominant for years.

The SNP are fairly one issue too btw and a good example of how nationalist politics can in some cases trump economic or class divisions if allowed to.

Christy42

I feel like labour votes should be chucked out.

We don't know what they stand for. Maybe voters want a mild Brexit as they have argued for a customs union? That is about as far as you can go with them. I would just compare UKIP/Brexit/Con vs LibDem/Green/SNP.

listermint

Christy42 wrote: »

I feel like labour votes should be chucked out.

We don't know what they stand for. Maybe voters want a mild Brexit as they have argued for a customs union? That is about as far as you can go with them. I would just compare UKIP/Brexit/Con vs LibDem/Green/SNP.

You can't just chuck out the incredible strong turnout for very media pro EU MEPs from labour that have been elected. That's just not going to fly with the reality

Lucy8080

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Nobody expected anything else. Scotland voted remain. The SNP have been dominant for years.

The SNP are fairly one issue too btw and a good example of how nationalist politics can in some cases trump economic or class divisions if allowed to.

So there you have it! The S.N.P. don't want to leave Europe and the Scots are supporting them!

What conclusion would you draw from that in regards to the U.K.s future prospects?

Peregrinus

Lucy8080 wrote: »

The Daily Mail have a mainly Turquise map of England ( barring London and some Lib -Dem patches elsewhere). They are calling it a political earthquake from the Brexit Party!

Scotland is entirely Yellow (S.N.P.).For some reason that is not the headline. I think remain parties have (combined) beaten leave parties. Their vote is split along party lines.

Those maps are deeply misleading. The colour in an entire region to indicate which party got more votes than any other, but in a multiparty proportional representation system that's a pretty meaningless statistic. In the election just held the highest ranking party in each UK region for which we have results as yet
has recevied between 27% and 38% of the vote, so a region may be coloured to indicate that it has been "won" by (say) the Brexit party despite 70% or more of the voters having voted against the Brexit party.

Pay no attention to those maps. Look at vote shares. And look at vote shares for policy positions, not for individual parties.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

listermint wrote: »

That flies in the face of the overtly pro EU meps they voted back in.

As I said your analysis is incredibly poor and is more than coloured by some of your own pro brexit desires and bias

For the third time. They didn’t vote for those MEPS. It’s a list system. This level of analysis is the problem here.

I’m not pro Brexit. I said that in my first post. And even if I were thats not an argument, it’s an ad hominem.

And again no real rebuttal. If you claim the 10% of voters who voted labour in this election are all remainers then you are saying that both the voters who stayed with labour and those that left are equally remainers, even though the labour leadership is a pro soft Brexit and the labour membership didn’t vote 100% remain in the referendum.

Given the parties stance, that it polled at about 30% of its general election level and that 30% is about equal to the pro Brexit Labour Party vote, my analysis makes more sense than yours which assumes the Labour Party vote is 100% remain and that labour is a remain party. The labour vote in this election was either pro Brexit or agnostic.

It can’t be added to the remain vote.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Lucy8080 wrote: »

So there you have it! The S.N.P. don't want to leave Europe and the Scots are supporting them!

What conclusion would you draw from that in regards to the U.K.s future prospects?

That it will break up? Nothing new there either.

Peregrinus

Bambi wrote: »

I think the real take away might be that we could wind up with a hung EU parliament and Macron has been walloped in France


The danger for us was always that the sands shift under us and we lose the firm support from the EU for our position.

When was the EU parliament ever not hung? EU support for Ireland on the Brexit issue has never, ever depended on the makeup of the 2014-19 Parliament.

As for Macron being walloped in France, I think that's a bit of an overstatement. He hasn't had a great day, but I wouldn't go further than that. And the liberal political tendency which Macron respresents and aspires to lead may not have done well in France, but across the EU as a whole it's one of the big winners in this election.

Lucy8080

Peregrinus wrote: »

Those maps are deeply misleading. The colour in an entire region to indicate which party got more votes than any other, but in a multiparty proportional representation system that's a pretty meaningless statistic. In the election just held the highest ranking party in each UK region for which we have results as yet
has recevied between 27% and 38% of the vote, so a region may be coloured to indicate that it has been "won" by (say) the Brexit party despite 70% or more of the voters having voted against the Brexit party.

Pay no attention to those maps. Look at vote shares. And look at vote shares for policy positions, not for individual parties.

In fairness to you, I think Brexit Party is polling as low as 10% of the general (available) electorate. As you said ,the maps may be misleading. But ,for the sake of argument, I'm comparing the stories that can be taken from the maps( be they yeah or nay).

listermint

Farage increases his seats by 4 and it's called a surge in far right support.

Remained parties increase their seats by 19 and it gets no such coverage


Even from folks in this thread with an obvious bias

francois

listermint wrote: »

Farage increases his seats by 4 and it's called a surge in far right support.

Remained parties increase their seats by 19 and it gets no such coverage


Even from folks in this thread with an obvious bias

Yes-Quite how 32% of the vote on a 37% turnout is a landslide is newspeak at its finest

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

I simply cannot see how the UK can do anything but leave the EU given that and since they cannot seem to countenance any sort of compromise deal with the EU then a No Deal is the only option left.

I am actually more hopeful today than for a good while that Labour will get off the fence and force a 2nd referendum, remain will win and Brexit will be cancelled.

IAmTheReign

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

For the third time. They didn’t vote for those MEPS. It’s a list system. This level of analysis is the problem here.

I’m not pro Brexit. I said that in my first post. And even if I were thats not an argument, it’s an ad hominem.

And again no real rebuttal. If you claim the 10% of voters who voted labour in this election are all remainers then you are saying that both the voters who stayed with labour and those that left are equally remainers, even though the labour leadership is a pro soft Brexit and the labour membership didn’t vote 100% remain in the referendum.

Given the parties stance, that it polled at about 30% of its general election level and that 30% is about equal to the pro Brexit Labour Party vote, my analysis makes more sense than yours which assumes the Labour Party vote is 100% remain and that labour is a remain party. The labour vote in this election was either pro Brexit or agnostic.

It can’t be added to the remain vote.

It's a list system where you know the order of the list though. If a pro EU Labour voter walks into the polls and sees pro EU Labour candidates topping the list why would they not vote for Labour?

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I am actually more hopeful today than for a good while that Labour will get off the fence and force a 2nd referendum, remain will win and Brexit will be cancelled.

and Britain will still fall apart under the weight of division and polarisation

A Dub in Glasgo

Peregrinus wrote: »

Those maps are deeply misleading. The colour in an entire region to indicate which party got more votes than any other, but in a multiparty proportional representation system that's a pretty meaningless statistic. In the election just held the highest ranking party in each UK region for which we have results as yet
has recevied between 27% and 38% of the vote, so a region may be coloured to indicate that it has been "won" by (say) the Brexit party despite 70% or more of the voters having voted against the Brexit party.

Pay no attention to those maps. Look at vote shares. And look at vote shares for policy positions, not for individual parties.

They are misleading but it does not stop the people being fed them by the media. The narrative now is that No deal Brexit won

Edit: This is the map

Harry Palmr

Ha, in the UK the only map that matters is the actual voting population map, geo-maps are always a lie but esp in the UK so concentrated is the population is large urban areas.

darem93

Those election result maps are very telling. It is becoming quite evident that Scotland are on a divergent path to England and Wales. Like it's such a massive contrast between a party like the SNP cleaning up in Scotland and then a party like the Brexit Party cleaning up south of the border.

Harry Palmr

Brexit are not cleaning up - you are getting distracted by pretty colours!

LeinsterDub

IAmTheReign wrote: »

It's a list system where you know the order of the list though. If a pro EU Labour voter walks into the polls and sees pro EU Labour candidates topping the list why would they not vote for Labour?

Because they know the pro EU candidate could resign tomorrow and be replaced by an anti EU MEP

Professor Moriarty

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Brexit are not cleaning up - you are getting distracted by pretty colours!

The Brexit Party basically took UKIP's vote plus a few percent from (presumably) the Tories and Lab. The interesting question is how many Tory and Lab votes went to the Lib Dems and the Greens. Those that stayed Tory/Lab are essentially the party faithful and/or those who are waiting for policy changes.