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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

  • 26-05-2019 9:41pm
    #1
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    This is the ninth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

    As we are approaching the critical end of March 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
    • Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
    • Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
    • Please do not be uncivil to other posters
    • Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



«134567330

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Labour's results are bad, the Conservatives seems ten times worse. They have lost more than half their vote and in some areas finished lower than 5th. Brexit has broken UK politics, like people warned and if Labour doesn't act responsibility both main parties could be decimated.

    The problem is that the Brexit that is delivered will be sold as a failure by Farage and he will use that to catapult himself and his party into the House Of Commons at the expense of mainly Conservative votes.

    I thought May was the worst PM in history, I have changed my mind and am fully convinced it is Cameron and it isn't even close. May had one job and she failed. The job was extremely difficult and she didn't help herself though as mitigation. Cameron set the country and his party up to fail. He could be responsible for the break up of the Conservatives and the UK. Corbyn need a slow hand clap as well, seeing as people told him to take a stance on Brexit and his dithering is costing his party as well. This is fascinating in a bizarre way.

    Edit: of Islington, Corbyn's backyard.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132765460150325248

    He lost to the Libdems in his own seat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 442 ✭✭RickBlaine


    Any possibility Corbyn will be forced out after these results?


  • Registered Users Posts: 53,755 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Seems SNP are miles ahead in Scotland

    Labour Scotland are in danger of getting their worse results ever.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Corbyn will be in a tight spot tonight. Either he will have to back Remain and a second referendum or he will be challenged. Emily Thornberry has followed Tom Watson stating Labour has to back a 2nd referendum and Remain.

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1132759872066375680

    And in other good news, Yaxley-Lennon will not be making money off EU tax payers at least.

    https://twitter.com/lowles_nick/status/1132762251826536448


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Lib Dems and Greens flourishing in the rural East of England.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,108 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Labour's results are bad, the Conservatives seems ten times worse. They have lost more than half their vote and in some areas finished lower than 5th. Brexit has broken UK politics, like people warned and if Labour doesn't act responsibility both main parties could be decimated.

    The problem is that the Brexit that is delivered will be sold as a failure by Farage and he will use that to catapult himself and his party into the House Of Commons at the expense of mainly Conservative votes.

    I thought May was the worst PM in history, I have changed my mind and am fully convinced it is Cameron and it isn't even close. May had one job and she failed. The job was extremely difficult and she didn't help herself though as mitigation. Cameron set the country and his party up to fail. He could be responsible for the break up of the Conservatives and the UK. Corbyn need a slow hand clap as well, seeing as people told him to take a stance on Brexit and his dithering is costing his party as well. This is fascinating in a bizarre way.

    Edit: of Islington, Corbyn's backyard.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132765460150325248

    He lost to the Libdems in his own seat.

    May could have delivered a semi sensible brexit if she had made even the slightest attempt to reach across the aisle instead of pandering to the extremists in her party. She is worse than Cameron for me because she clung on for so long and emboldened the far right with her hard line 'no deal is better than a bad deal' soundbyte.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    So the North-East of England has sent 2 Brexit MEPs and one Labour MEP to the EU. This is contrast to one UKIP and two Labour in 2014.

    The East of England will send 3 Brexit MEPs, 2 LibDems, 1 Green and 1 Conservative. This is in contrast to 3 UKIP, 1 Labour and 3 Conservative in 2014.

    So it is one more MEP for Brexit Party over UKIP so far.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132759955415752709

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132767110340521986


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Lib Dems 3 London seats, Lab 2, Brex 2, Greens 1.

    Tories no seats at all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Akrasia wrote: »
    May could have delivered a semi sensible brexit if she had made even the slightest attempt to reach across the aisle instead of pandering to the extremists in her party. She is worse than Cameron for me because she clung on for so long and emboldened the far right with her hard line 'no deal is better than a bad deal' soundbyte.


    I was of this thinking but what turns it for me is that she took a hard job, possibly even improbable to deliver. She made it impossible by wanting to stop free movement and it cascaded from there.

    But what sways it for me now is that Cameron had no reason to call an election and he ran the campaign as well. Look at it this way, without Cameron calling the referendum May never would have become PM. So he set her up for failure for what was an unnecessary decisions. So he takes it from her.


  • Posts: 0 Rey Salty Signal


    If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
    The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 53,755 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Actually the Greens are very pro Europe too


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,142 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
    The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.

    Out of all the parties you mention the Green Party and Lib Dems are remain/second ref parties. So your point argues the opposite to your conclusion I think.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
    The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.


    I think the results will probably be quite close if you take the Brexit vote against the remain votes of the Libdems and Greens. It is probably a fair reflection that at least in a low turnout election that Brexit will be favoured. But I believe, if the previous elections are a guide, more older voters will vote than younger voters. So if the turnout is low it means lower participation of the group most likely to vote remain, so I don't know if you can take anything from this results.


  • Registered Users Posts: 36,020 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    If people believe that the EU elections were to be used as a proxy for a second referendum, then the figures coming in so far appear to show a very strong support for (a hard) Brexit at over 30%, voters who chose Conservative or Labour candidates probably put party loyalty before choosing Brexit or remain by switching to Liberal Democrats.
    The Greens have obviously picked up the votes from people who believe that environmental issues are more important than Brexit.

    Eh, it demonstrates a fairly even polarisation between No Deal / Second Referendum, with a thinly populated middle ground on Brexit. SNP / LDs / Greens / Change UK all favour a second referendum or revocation of A50.

    You can also expect Labour to shift to a clear Remain strategy now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,369 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Out of all the parties you mention the Green Party and Lib Dems are remain/second ref parties. So your point argues the opposite to your conclusion I think.

    And labour is wishy washy on brexit.

    So it's nothing of the sort tbh


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,935 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    My constituency, 3 votes to the SNP from this household

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1132769169928269824


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,369 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Well one great bit of news Gerrard batten that UKIP ..... Blank.


    Has lost his seat.


  • Posts: 0 Rey Salty Signal


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Out of all the parties you mention the Green Party and Lib Dems are remain/second ref parties. So your point argues the opposite to your conclusion I think.
    Not really, green voters put the environment first, the fact that they're pro EU is a secondary consideration, so I stand by my observation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 53,755 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    My constituency, 3 votes to the SNP from this household

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1132769169928269824

    Do you think the European election results will be a catalyst for Scotland independence now?


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,369 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Not really, green voters put the environment first, the fact that they're pro EU is a secondary consideration, so I stand by my observation.

    It's really not though.


    You should be fully aware of Caroline Lucas

    I presume...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,935 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Headshot wrote: »
    Do you think the European election results will be a catalyst for Scotland independence now?


    Not really, obviously pro-EU votes are the majority. The Tories are probably doing more for independence than the SNP. There are still loads of Unionists out there


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,142 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Not really, green voters put the environment first, the fact that they're pro EU is a secondary consideration, so I stand by my observation.

    We'll agree to differ but they've campaigned a lot around freedom of movement and are pro European, and if their electorate weren't pro European etc they simply wouldn't vote for them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Not really, green voters put the environment first, the fact that they're pro EU is a secondary consideration, so I stand by my observation.


    You are wrong in your observation. The Green Party in the UK ran on a environmental and remain campaign.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,935 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    London results in the mix

    Brexit 7 (7) 27.9 (+27.9)
    Lib Dem 5 (5) 24.1 (+17.4)
    Lab 3 (-4) 17.9 (-11.8)
    Green 2 (1) 11.9 (+3.7)
    Con 1 (-4) 8.6 (-15.3)
    Ukip 0 (-1) 3.1 (-21.8)
    Others 0 6.5 (-)

    The West Midlands has seen Ukip become Brexit 3 for 3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 53,755 ✭✭✭✭Headshot



    That her party and especially herself is very impressive

    I'm a big fan of Sturgeon


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    The message from the contributors, at least the Conservative ones (Tim Montgomery the latest), are that the message is that they have to leave even if it means with no-deal. The new leader will be under severe to just leave and it will be interesting to see if they will be swayed by the facts of what no-deal will mean and if they still want to do that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,935 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Headshot wrote: »
    That her party and especially herself is very impressive

    I'm a big fan of Sturgeon

    What is in Dublin tomorrow?

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1132771386240446464


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,369 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    From what I see so far. It's just an exchange of ukips meps for brexit party meps.

    The labour and tories have lost out to true remainer parties.

    There is zero mandate or change for a real hard brexit with these results. Actually combined remain nip it.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Exactly so, as someone put it on the BBC - clarity and campaigning has won. Those parties that are unequivocal have thrived while Lab and Con have suffered through being foggy and mealy mouthed and not really contesting the elections anyway.


This discussion has been closed.
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