Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation · 28-05-2019 8:48pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

... The views on him are so strong and he's so terrible it shouldn't be hard to find.

You what now?

Maybe I misunderstood what GATT24 was about. But you could maybe explain it to me and others on here?

What is it in Brexit that you believe in so strongly?

Why do you think that the Brexit Party will do so well in a FPTP system with a higher turnout?

(A) Of course they do. That's exactly how it would be if the shoe was on the other foot as well! The sky is blue also!

(B) No flies on you! Why would you wan't a second referendum if you "presumed" the result would be repeated?

(C) Not to sound glib "but eh, duh!"

The one time? You're going for melodrama now?

Any thoughts on the illegal funding and lies pouted by the leave side and the continued revelations that show how shady it all was?

Do any right-wingers drink lattes or almond milk?

So those that were lied to and cheated just have to "suck it up" under threat of the "decen[t] [sic]" of anarchy from the lying cheating charlatans who caused this needless kerfuffle?

Hardly seems reasonable.

Whut?

What liying charlatans?

EU Army?
Tax Harmonisation?
Federal Europe?
ECJ overruling home courts?

If noe of these are true and never will be then Guy Vohsfool, Drunker, Rusk, Brainer need to come on national TV and give their word along with a caveat that if they even try such will make all the treaties non and void.

The EU Army and Federal Europe attempts alone will likely be the cause of a world war in europe, no right-minded person wants these things.

The very fact these ideas have been uttered by these people has made me just want to see the EU gone.[/QUOTE]

---

The hack of that attempt to quote!

What liying charlatans?

EU Army?
Tax Harmonisation?
Federal Europe?
ECJ overruling home courts?

No EU Army.
No Tax Harmonisation.
Not a thing and there's no appetite for it.
ECJ is something countries sign up to willingly. What's so wrong with the ECJ?

---

Instead of introducing more nonsense that has been debunked over and over from your previous attempts on here, could you please go back to my original post and answer the questions I asked.

The rest of your post is just classic Brexiteer nonsense.

BonnieSituation · 28-05-2019 8:51pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Tbhe British people didn't....the most treacherous PM in history did.

It's her job to run the country I thought?

You hardly want a Swiss-style confederation now do you with Co-presidents and direct democracy?

Joe_ Public · 28-05-2019 8:51pm

Are we still talking about Article 24? Even the hardest of hardcore brexiteer mps dont bring that subject up anymore, it was dead in the water months ago.

Last week on the politics show Andrew Neil asked staunch leaver Andrea Jenkyns a question about the WTO trading rules and she couldn't even muster a basic reply, just straight out admitted she didn't know much about it.

cryptocurrency · 28-05-2019 8:54pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What liying charlatans?

EU Army?
Tax Harmonisation?
Federal Europe?
ECJ overruling home courts?

If noe of these are true and never will be then Guy Vohsfool, Drunker, Rusk, Brainer need to come on national TV and give their word along with a caveat that if they even try such will make all the treaties non and void.

The EU Army and Federal Europe attempts alone will likely be the cause of a world war in europe, no right-minded person wants these things.

The very fact these ideas have been uttered by these people has made me just want to see the EU gone.

---

The hack of that attempt to quote!

No EU Army.
No Tax Harmonisation.
Not a thing and there's no appetite for it.
ECJ is something countries sign up to willingly. What's so wrong with the ECJ?

---

Instead of introducing more nonsense that has been debunked over and over from your previous attempts on here, could you please go back to my original post and answer the questions I asked.

The rest of your post is just classic Brexiteer nonsense.[/QUOTE]

EU army is called for by the ldership of the EU, Merkel and Macron. THis is a national secuirty threat and should be stopped at all costs. Washington should nip this one in the bud.
Majority and not veto system on Tax being called for by the very top of the EU, this must be stopped at all costs.
Federal Europe, same as 1939, must be stopped at all costs.
ECJ, national courts overseen by the states law makers should be supreme, no higher court should exsist. Must be blocked at all costs.

cryptocurrency · 28-05-2019 8:55pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's her job to run the country I thought?

You hardly want a Swiss-style confederation now do you with Co-presidents and direct democracy?

She hung on as long as she could even when she knew 1 year back the public hated her as PM. She was focused on her mission to destory the will of the people. She underestimated the peoples grit.

BonnieSituation · 28-05-2019 8:57pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

She hung on as long as she could even when she knew 1 year back the public hated her as PM. She was focused on her mission to destory the will of the people. She underestimated the peoples grit.

Ah lad will you come off it.

Could you answer any of the questions we have asked you since you barrelled in here earlier with no back up toi any of your statements.

cryptocurrency · 28-05-2019 8:57pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Are we still talking about Article 24? Even the hardest of hardcore brexiteer mps dont bring that subject up anymore, it was dead in the water months ago.

Last week on the politics show Andrew Neil asked staunch leaver Andrea Jenkyns a question about the WTO trading rules and she couldn't even muster a basic reply, just straight out admitted she didn't know much about it.

Why, the country can just leave. I admit I was indifferent about the EU at the referendum but as the last 3 years have unfolded and I have waatched them in action I have never wanted anything more in my entire life.

fash · 28-05-2019 8:59pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

WA rammed down the throats of leavers? Unicorns?

You have no idea on how this will end. The only time I can see a WA rammed down the British throat and the brexiteers having to accept it will have to be in the same way western europe had panzer tanks rammed down their throat. This is gone way beyond the british just getting beaten back into the corner and suck it up.

Brexit has to happen as the thought of the other journey is frightning of where it will take Europe. Never again.
Let the people go.

Their people are free to go - what they are not free to do is leave while stealing all our stuff (which is what they want).
As for “letting people go” - all they have to do is let our people go and they can have a deal - it is the UK who refuse to let OUR people go.
OUR people who voted to remain in the EU.
OUR people who voted for remain MEPs.
OUR people the vast majority of whom want a backstop.
OUR people who the British government refuses to let go free to decide their own fate.
LET OUR PEOPLE GO.
Then all problems with Brexit are resolved.
Instead the UK has threatened, bullied, blackmailed and sought to undermine Ireland - 800+ years of oppression, murder, suppression, violence, genocide and ethnic cleansing - why should Ireland accept that ever again?

Never again.

This is gone way beyond the IRISH just getting beaten back into the corner and suck it up.

.

Brexit has to happen as the thought of the other journey is frightning of where it will take Europe. .

Project fear nonsense.
In any case, the Backstop has to happen as the thought of the other journey is frightning of where it will take the UK (or the bits of it that will remain after a no deal).

Seth Brundle · 28-05-2019 9:00pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why, the country can just leave. I admit I was indifferent about the EU at the referendum but as the last 3 years have unfolded and I have waatched them in action I have never wanted anything more in my entire life.

I've skipped a few pages so may have missed something but are you really saying that after the last 3 years you think the behaviour of the EU towards the UK was bad and that the behaviour of the UK is something to admire?
Are you for real?

Tell me how · 28-05-2019 9:02pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why, the country can just leave. I admit I was indifferent about the EU at the referendum but as the last 3 years have unfolded and I have waatched them in action I have never wanted anything more in my entire life.

That's nothing but vacuous lamenting without exploration of the facts or implications.

None of the evidence, none of it, has shown that the UK will be better off when it leaves than as a member. The Brexiteers have tailored their statements from 'nothing but sunlit uplands' to a '30 year downturn period' in the time since the referendum. It is plain to everyone (including Brexiteers), that the electorate who voted to leave were sold a pig in a sack before the referendum and the majority of people no longer want to do so.

But, the prominent Brexiteers will be shielded from the harshness of such a downturn, and the less prominent Brexiteers are so anti-establishment, they cannot see the evidence in front of them.

cryptocurrency · 28-05-2019 9:03pm

fash wrote: »

Their people are free to go - what they are not free to do is leave while stealing all our stuff (which is what they want).
As for “letting people go” - all they have to do is let our people go and they can have a deal - it is the UK who refuse to let OUR people go.
OUR people who voted to remain in the EU.
OUR people who voted for remain MEPs.
OUR people the vast majority of whom want a backstop.
OUR people who the British government refuses to let go free to decide their own fate.
LET OUR PEOPLE GO.
Then all problems with Brexit are resolved.
Instead the UK has threatened, bullied, blackmailed and sought to undermine Ireland - 800+ years of oppression, murder, suppression, violence, genocide and ethnic cleansing - why should Ireland accept that ever again?

Never again.

This is gone way beyond the IRISH just getting beaten back into the corner and suck it up.

. Project fear nonsense.
In any case, the Backstop has to happen as the thought of the other journey is frightning of where it will take the UK (or the bits of it that will remain after a no deal).

Nobody cares about the north. UK should just leave and flip the north overnight onto the Republic. And the close the land bridge and make it all WTO.

Then very mention of that would have "your" people in the province pleading for westminster to stay.

Also, the safest way for the UK to maintain the union is to undermine the EU and ensure its demise. UK has the global and national secuirty apparatus to facilitate that.

It would be for peace and the good on all of Europe for the EU to be stopped. What is happening in france is a disgrace and they have now ignored 7 referendums of its member states.

cryptocurrency · 28-05-2019 9:05pm

Tell me how wrote: »

That's nothing but vacuous lamenting without exploration of the facts or implications.

None of the evidence, none of it, has shown that the UK will be better off when it leaves than as a member. The Brexiteers have tailored their statements from 'nothing but sunlit uplands' to a '30 year downturn period' in the time since the referendum. It is plain to everyone (including Brexiteers), that the electorate who voted to leave were sold a pig in a sack before the referendum and the majority of people no longer want to do so.

But, the prominent Brexiteers will be shielded from the harshness of such a downturn, and the less prominent Brexiteers are so anti-establishment, they cannot see the evidence in front of them.

EU was fine 20 years ago. Nobody wanted or asked for further intergration. I like the new EU memebr states but it should just be a free trade area with common standards. They got greedy and meglomaniac and now it must be dismantled.

Joe_ Public · 28-05-2019 9:08pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why, the country can just leave. I admit I was indifferent about the EU at the referendum but as the last 3 years have unfolded and I have waatched them in action I have never wanted anything more in my entire life.

Sure, the UK can and could well leave, but it is absolutely certain that a vast majority of the population do not want to crash out with no deal so it's nowhere near as simple as you portray it. They may say there is no legal way for parliament to stop it happening, but i dont fully subscribe to that myself. If the will is there - and it is there resoundingly so - it will find a way. I am quite certain of that and I think ardent leavers should prepare themselves for it or find a better strategy than the one they are currently pursuing.

cryptocurrency · 28-05-2019 9:13pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Sure, the UK can and could well leave, but it is absolutely certain that a vast majority of the population do not want to crash out with no deal so it's nowhere near as simple as you portray it. They may say there is no legal way for parliament to stop it happening, but i dont fully subscribe to that myself. If the will is there - and it is there resoundingly so - it will find a way. I am quite certain of that and I think ardent leavers should prepare themselves for it or find a better strategy than the one they are currently pursuing.

It's effectively now a modern day war, this is how they are fought, politics, spin and threats of trucks for miles at dover.

They have to win, for good and for freedom, this is now bigger then brexit.

Spanish Eyes · 28-05-2019 9:13pm

Parliament still thankfully has a majority of intelligent people within its ranks. Parliament is sovereign remember? They do not subscribe to a NO DEAL exit, nor do they subscribe to the WA either. What the F do they want?

That is the question!

Spanish Eyes · 28-05-2019 9:15pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU was fine 20 years ago. Nobody wanted or asked for further intergration. I like the new EU memebr states but it should just be a free trade area with common standards. They got greedy and meglomaniac and now it must be dismantled.

Describe your view of EU megalomania for us peasants please.

Joe_ Public · 28-05-2019 9:16pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

It's effectively now a modern day war, this is how they are fought, politics, spin and threats of trucks for miles at dover.

They have to win, for good and for freedom, this is now bigger then brexit.

Nah, the people dont want this kind of Tommy Robinson rubbish talk. Made that clear at the polls last week. Goodnight.

sink · 28-05-2019 9:22pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU army is called for by the ldership of the EU, Merkel and Macron. THis is a national secuirty threat and should be stopped at all costs. Washington should nip this one in the bud.

Interesting that you see the EU, of which we are a paid up member and have a seat at the top table as a national security threat, but are quite happy for a non-member foreign state with which we have very limited leverage, to overrule the organisation in which we participate. How would the USA dictating the terms by which we and Europe as whole constitute our national defence not be a threat to our national security?

Unless of course you are looking at this from the perspective of an American.

28-05-2019 9:43pm

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Nobody cares about the north. UK should just leave and flip the north overnight onto the Republic. And the close the land bridge and make it all WTO.

I think there's a lot of people that would like to build a 10ft high wall around England and Wales...

... And then fill it with water.

Quin_Dub · 28-05-2019 9:45pm

A few too many flippant one-liners of late

Up the standards please.

Thanks

Leroy42 · 28-05-2019 10:33pm

Nobody voted for further integration? Of course they did the EU is a group of member states, with certain states getting certain vetos.

So the UK voted, it didn't vote against, further integration. In fact the UK were one of the drivers towards Turkey joining.

Now, the fact that most UK voters didn't bother to check, and less than 40% bothered to vote in EU elections is not the fault of the EU. UK voters stayed in the pub or voted in jokers like Farage whilst the rest of the EU sent politicians and paid attention.

As is repeatedly said by Brexiteers, the UK has vast resources, 5th biggest economy and should have all the power yet they appear to have been completely subjegatated by the rest of the EU, each being tiny.

So rather than creating bogeymen and using childish schoolground nicknames for people you and the UK voters should 1st ask yourselves how can the EU have been so powerful as to ignore the UK in such a way. Is it A) it is all powerful - in which case it seems crazy to try to take them on on your own, or

the voters and politicians have let the country down.

Neither one is a good look but far easier to blame others rather than look at oneself.

1st dalkey dalkey · 28-05-2019 10:36pm

It is starting to look like another extension may be on the cards.
Both major parties are in flux and neither want an election.
Corbyn has been undermined by the result of the election, May defeated by it.
Any new leader, of either party or both, still has to deal with the same Parliament.
The arguments are all the same as are the people and likely the numbers.

The only problem with a new extension is Macron. Will he dig his heals in?

listermint · 28-05-2019 10:40pm

sink wrote: »

Interesting that you see the EU, of which we are a paid up member and have a seat at the top table as a national security threat, but are quite happy for a non-member foreign state with which we have very limited leverage, to overrule the organisation in which we participate. How would the USA dictating the terms by which we and Europe as whole constitute our national defence not be a threat to our national security? Unless of course you are looking at this from the perspective of an American.

Absolutely beautiful point crypto makes.

He has proven to me explicitly he gets his information from RT and Facebook.

America good.... Trump in charge.

America bad ... Obama in charge .

Russia good ... Putin in charge.

EU bad.... Multiple nations in charge usually Germany and France booo.

You would cut your ears off and your eyes out listening and reading this form of opinion.

reslfj · 28-05-2019 11:23pm

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Brexit has to happen. The first 3 items on any trade deal agenda will be financial, citizens rights and backstop. So sign now or sign later, whatever suits.

A unilateral revoke of A50 by the UK Parliament is possible until October 31.

The WA text - all of it except the transition periods - must be ratified by the UK Parliament before the EU27 will start any negotiations about the future relations.
This include trade including Non-Tariff-Barriers and country/region of origin for goods. And non trade items like radioactive isotopes for medical use, UK lorries driving in EU27, planes flying with passengers or cargo between the UK and any EU27 state, fishing rights and (unchanged) access to fishing grounds etc etc.

The EU27 will not even talk.

The UK auto industry will be half its current size literally within weeks and many more than Honda will leave. Fish and farm export will very fast grind to a halt.
The UK will have to accept a deal - almost any deal - most urgently.

Lars

https://twitter.com/LarsFJ1/status/1129875012993863680

20silkcut · 29-05-2019 1:32am

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Nobody cares about the north. UK should just leave and flip the north overnight onto the Republic. And the close the land bridge and make it all WTO.

Then very mention of that would have "your" people in the province pleading for westminster to stay.

Also, the safest way for the UK to maintain the union is to undermine the EU and ensure its demise. UK has the global and national secuirty apparatus to facilitate that.

It would be for peace and the good on all of Europe for the EU to be stopped. What is happening in france is a disgrace and they have now ignored 7 referendums of its member states.

You are really letting emotion take you over to the point of delusion.
You need to take a step back look at the world around you do a bit of research inform yourself and I’m sure you will come to realise things are not as bad as you think.
There is no need to undermine and ensure the demise of anyone.
Why would you use such language ???

fash · 29-05-2019 5:02am

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU was fine 20 years ago. Nobody wanted or asked for further intergration. I like the new EU memebr states but it should just be a free trade area with common standards. They got greedy and meglomaniac and now it must be dismantled.

I asked for further integration - as did a lot of people who voted for Lisbon. In fact, I want even more integration.
Why do you have to lie?

fash · 29-05-2019 5:13am

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Nobody cares about the north.

The people of Ireland care. We voted on that.

UK should just leave and flip the north overnight onto the Republic. And the close the land bridge and make it all WTO.

Then very mention of that would have "your" people in the province pleading for westminster to stay.

A very large amount of people in the North and in Ireland would be very happy if that happened - and would be pleading with Westminster to make it happen is they thought it likely.
I see that the people of Ireland are not "your" people - which is fortunate for you as it would certainly help in a charge of treason.

Also, the safest way for the UK to maintain the union is to undermine the EU and ensure its demise. UK has the global and national secuirty apparatus to facilitate that.

And it would be safest for 500 million Europeans (as well as various random states around the world who have been subject to attack and invasion by the UK- e.g. Iraq and the various minorities there) to ensure the demise of the UK.

Thankfully, you are helping to bring that about.

It was only through the EU that peace was brought to Ireland - if it were left to the British, ethnic cleansing would have happened at this stage.

t would be for peace and the good on all of Europe for the EU to be stopped. What is happening in france is a disgrace and they have now ignored 7 referendums of its member states.

Which referendums have been ignored? Certainly not the Irish ones where all is the Irish concerns were addressed in detail and agreed to.
What is happening in France and what has that got to do with the EU?

Wanderer78 · 29-05-2019 6:10am

cryptocurrency wrote:

EU was fine 20 years ago. Nobody wanted or asked for further intergration. I like the new EU memebr states but it should just be a free trade area with common standards. They got greedy and meglomaniac and now it must be dismantled.

Dismantling the EU would probably cause catastrophic social and economic disruption across the planet, particularly in Europe, it's important we do everything we can to prevent this from happening, the creation of the EU has benefitted us more so than harmed us.

Zubeneschamali · 29-05-2019 6:19am

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why, the country can just leave.

Yes, and that is enough for the likes of Farage.

But someone who gets to be PM has to consider: then what?

Stop moaning ffs · 29-05-2019 8:56am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, and that is enough for the likes of Farage.

But someone who gets to be PM has to consider: then what?

I wondered about this.
Several of those throwing their hat in the ring want to be the PM to take Britain out.
But how many of them want to be PM in the aftermath? Are they all that deluded that they don’t see the consequences pretty much all of us are able to see?

Leroy42 · 29-05-2019 9:04am

That is a question I am asking. Either they simply don't care and see being PM as the ultimate and it is better to be PM in terrible times than not PM at all, or they simply don't think that No Deal Brexit will be as negative as people are pointing out.

I was listening to the Telegraph Brexit podcast yesterday, and just like the BBC podcast, the lack of any questions around the possible effects of No Deal is just never discussed. It is simply an option, and the Telegraph seem to take the view that it is a no cost option.

Do the MP's feel the same? If so then in their minds there is no 'aftermath'. Just the glory of completing Brexit.

Stop moaning ffs · 29-05-2019 9:09am

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is a question I am asking. Either they simply don't care and see being PM as the ultimate and it is better to be PM in terrible times than not PM at all, or they simply don't think that No Deal Brexit will be as negative as people are pointing out.

I was listening to the Telegraph Brexit podcast yesterday, and just like the BBC podcast, the lack of any questions around the possible effects of No Deal is just never discussed. It is simply an option, and the Telegraph seem to take the view that it is a no cost option.

Do the MP's feel the same? If so then in their minds there is no 'aftermath'. Just the glory of completing Brexit.

Listen to both podcasts regularly too and also haven’t heard that question asked.
But it isn’t being asked anywhere at all. None involved including media are looking further down the road. It’s going to bite them so hard.

gucci · 29-05-2019 9:12am

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is a question I am asking. Either they simply don't care and see being PM as the ultimate and it is better to be PM in terrible times than not PM at all, or they simply don't think that No Deal Brexit will be as negative as people are pointing out.

I was listening to the Telegraph Brexit podcast yesterday, and just like the BBC podcast, the lack of any questions around the possible effects of No Deal is just never discussed. It is simply an option, and the Telegraph seem to take the view that it is a no cost option.

Do the MP's feel the same? If so then in their minds there is no 'aftermath'. Just the glory of completing Brexit.

Pretty much nailed it there, its all about the power. Theresa May been the most recent example. I genuinely believe she had no ultimate agenda only get in power and maintain it as long as she could.

The party are full of the same type of characters clearly, and the fact 10 are running for king pin is a clear indication of why she couldnt get any sway or general concensous for anything. Tory party could be renamed "Me First and the Gimme Gimmes" except that band at least had a clear strategy.

robinph · 29-05-2019 9:22am

gucci wrote: »

Pretty much nailed it there, its all about the power. Theresa May been the most recent example. I genuinely believe she had no ultimate agenda only get in power and maintain it as long as she could.

I think she took the job only because she noticed that it was a bloody stupid idea and nobody else wanted the job for that reason and she somehow thought she could manage to find a way out of it. She quickly backed herself into various corners that didn't even exist until she built them up around herself, but was then too incompetent to realise what she was doing or to try to get back out of them.

Whilst it appeared she was desperately trying to cling to power by her, there was also the fact that nobody else really wanted the job. Slightly different position now for whoever comes in as whilst they are still in a completely impossible situation, but they can always just blame May in order to deflect the blame from themselves for trying to do something impossible/ stupid.

Russman · 29-05-2019 9:22am

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is a question I am asking. Either they simply don't care and see being PM as the ultimate and it is better to be PM in terrible times than not PM at all, or they simply don't think that No Deal Brexit will be as negative as people are pointing out.

I was listening to the Telegraph Brexit podcast yesterday, and just like the BBC podcast, the lack of any questions around the possible effects of No Deal is just never discussed. It is simply an option, and the Telegraph seem to take the view that it is a no cost option.

Do the MP's feel the same? If so then in their minds there is no 'aftermath'. Just the glory of completing Brexit.

I think this is probably the case for a lot of them. Without being too flippant, I suspect there's still a large element of empire mentality going on, whether its their education, insulated lives, or just bombast, I don't know.
But I don't think they see "terrible times" ahead tbh. A lot of these would be in the same general sphere as Farage (albeit not as extreme) and to hear him yesterday, quite calmly saying they should give the EU an ultimatum that "we're leaving at 11pm on 31st October, you can come talk to us before then if you want to get a free trade deal" makes me think its not such a huge step for some Tories to be of a similar view.

What will be interesting in the aftermath in the event of a no-deal will be any public backlash. Will they suck it up and invoke the spirit of Dunkirk or will there be wails of "you never told us we'd have no medicine" ?

Shelga · 29-05-2019 9:25am

The leadership contest is next to irrelevant, compared to whether the EU is willing to grant another extension. That’s what this is going to come down to. Again.

Stop moaning ffs · 29-05-2019 9:29am

On a slight aside, we know the DUP are immune to irony and lack any self awareness, but Arelenes tweet to ‘Leo’ (not even Irish PM or Taoiseach) is quite something. She mentions ‘compromise’. Seriously?

https://twitter.com/dupleader/status/1133434472781832192?s=21

Zubeneschamali · 29-05-2019 9:31am

Shelga wrote: »

The leadership contest is next to irrelevant, compared to whether the EU is willing to grant another extension.

No way will the EU eject a member state with No Deal if they ask to stay, it's bad for both sides.

The conditions the EU dictates may be interesting. A longer one, next time I'd say, certainty for at least a year or two.

FreudianSlippers · 29-05-2019 9:34am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No way will the EU eject a member state with No Deal if they ask to stay, it's bad for both sides.

The conditions the EU dictates may be interesting. A longer one, next time I'd say, certainty for at least a year or two.

I agree with you on the general point you're making, but the EU aren't really "eject[ing]" the UK.

ambro25 · 29-05-2019 9:42am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No way will the EU eject a member state with No Deal if they ask to stay, it's bad for both sides.

The conditions the EU dictates may be interesting. A longer one, next time I'd say, certainty for at least a year or two.

I may be wrong, but I seem to recall an EU condition of the current extension was a progress/milestone check in June (or is it July)?

Bit of a bind for the EU if the UK fails that check (...as I expect them to) and, given that hypothetical context, quid of the teeth of any later "conditions" for an additional extension?

I get your core point...but the EU27 of the second half of 2019, post-elections and presidency/Commission appointments, is not going to be the same as the EU27 of the past 3 years.

robinph · 29-05-2019 9:42am

Assuming that there is no general election with the Brexit Party getting any seats in parliament before the end of October then I don't see how no deal could possibly happen, regardless of what the new Tory leader says they will do. The rest of parliament still won't support a no deal option.

Leroy42 · 29-05-2019 9:45am

It will certainly be interesting what the new PM opts to do. The likes of Raab, McVey and others have clearly stated that its No Deal on 31st Oct unless the EU give them what they want.

Farage is pushing hard, and has a sizeable amount of the electorate behind him, for an exit on 31st. Thus it will be very difficult for any PM to sell an extension past 31st October without at least the backstop being reopened.

So the Tories are clearly facing a severe issue from the Brexit Party and in essence Farage has taken a leading role in the decisions on the Tory party. But on the other hand, surely any PM will be told, in no uncertain terms, just what the impact of No Deal will be and will then be faced with the almost impossible choice of whether to further lose support for the Tories of face into the chaos of No Deal.

Peregrinus · 29-05-2019 9:58am

robinph wrote: »

Assuming that there is no general election with the Brexit Party getting any seats in parliament before the end of October then I don't see how no deal could possibly happen, regardless of what the new Tory leader says they will do. The rest of parliament still won't support a no deal option.

It's not enough for Parliament not to support no deal in order to avoid it. Parliament has to be willing and able to take action/to compel the executive to take action to avert no-deal, or it wil happen.

This is a serious constraint. So far no deal has been averted through a combiation of a parliament that would not countenance it and a PM would also would not countenance it. A hypothetical new PM, chosen by the party on the basis of a professed willingness to countenance no deal, is a signficant new factor.

sink · 29-05-2019 10:04am

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's not enough for Parliament not to support no deal in order to avoid it. Parliament has to be willing and able to take action/to compel the executive to take action to avert no-deal, or it wil happen.

This is a serious constraint. So far no deal has been averted through a combiation of a parliament that would not countenance it and a PM would also would not countenance it. A hypothetical new PM, chosen by the party on the basis of a professed willingness to countenance no deal, is a signficant new factor.

One would hope that should any new PM countenance 'no deal' that the more liberal conservative members of parliament put their money where there mouth is a call for a VONC. I imagine Hammond, Grieve et al, would not be able to prop up a government which is diametrically opposed to their own views.

Tell me how · 29-05-2019 10:04am

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's not enough for Parliament not to support no deal in order to avoid it. Parliament has to be willing and able to take action/to compel the executive to take action to avert no-deal, or it wil happen.

This is a serious constraint. So far no deal has been averted through a combiation of a parliament that would not countenance it and a PM would also would not countenance it. A hypothetical new PM, chosen by the party on the basis of a professed willingness to countenance no deal, is a signficant new factor.

Comments attributed to John Bercow yesterday suggested that he is adamant that Parliament will have the opportunity to prevent a No Deal happening irrespective of who is PM.

ancapailldorcha · 29-05-2019 10:09am

ambro25 wrote: »

I may be wrong, but I seem to recall an EU condition of the current extension was a progress/milestone check in June (or is it July)?

Bit of a bind for the EU if the UK fails that check (...as I expect them to) and, given that hypothetical context, quid of the teeth of any later "conditions" for an additional extension?

I get your core point...but the EU27 of the second half of 2019, post-elections and presidency/Commission appointments, is not going to be the same as the EU27 of the past 3 years.

I don't recall if they stipulated a specific month. I think the point might have been that they won't just grant extensions willy nilly simply to allow the Tories to continue their internecine internal squabbling.

They would allow one for either a People's Vote or a general election as the UK would need time to facilitate either and the EU will want to do everything it can do avoid a crashout Brexit. Ideally, Macron won't get in the way of them offering either a very long extension or no extension whatsoever forcing the UK to make a final choice. As an EU migrant myself, I'm not too keen on the risk of them choosing hard Brexit but MP's have shown that they don't want it. They just need to reach consensus on some sort of compromise.

Ultimately, the People's Vote is the only way out of this mess. An ill-judged referendum caused this catastrophe. Another referendum is therefore the only way out given the ambiguity of the Labour party and the fissured Conservatives. The sooner MP's realise this, the better off the UK and the EU will be.

Nody · 29-05-2019 10:14am

robinph wrote: »

Assuming that there is no general election with the Brexit Party getting any seats in parliament before the end of October then I don't see how no deal could possibly happen, regardless of what the new Tory leader says they will do. The rest of parliament still won't support a no deal option.

All they need is to copy May which is stall, stall, stall and then refuse to request extension and ignore parliament for the required week or two before the crash out; esp. seeing how the UK parliament is so afraid to actually decide to make a decision for what they want vs. what they don't want.

Peregrinus · 29-05-2019 10:23am

Tell me how wrote: »

Comments attributed to John Bercow yesterday suggested that he is adamant that Parliament will have the opportunity to prevent a No Deal happening irrespective of who is PM.

Bercow can ensure that Parliament can exercise its powers. He can't ensure that it will exercise its powers, and he can't give it powers that it doesn't have.

In particular, it's not clear that Parliament has any power either to compel a PM to seek an extension or to compel a PM to withdraw A50 notice. If it passes a resolution calling on him or her to do one of those things, and the PM refuses, it can hold a vote of no confidence, but the outcome of that is not an exension or revocation; its a general election, which takes weeks to play out, and whose outcome is uncertain. Meanwhile the clock doesn't stop running to October 31.

Remember, Parliament has already approved a no-deal Brexit if it occurs simply because the A50 withdrawal period expires without a withdrawal agreement having been ratified. Parliament simply not liking that won't stop it now; Parliament must act, must act in time, and must act effectively. Bercow can facilitate this, but he cannot bring it about himself.

Borderhopper · 29-05-2019 10:34am

Has cryptocurrency finished posting? I skipped a few pages of nonsense. It is fascinating though how 1 “controversial” poster drops a few bombs, derails the thread, disappears, then another takes its place

robinph · 29-05-2019 10:35am

Nody wrote: »

All they need is to copy May which is stall, stall, stall and then refuse to request extension and ignore parliament for the required week or two before the crash out; esp. seeing how the UK parliament is so afraid to actually decide to make a decision for what they want vs. what they don't want.

The one thing that parliament did actually agree on was that no deal wasn't acceptable.

There would be some hurdles to get over in getting parliament to be able to ask the EU for an extension rather than it being done by the PM, but I don't think the EU would be too worried about that in the event of the PM not following the instruction of their own parliament.