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European Parliament Elections 2019

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    #362
    Jamie2k9
    Registered Users Posts: 10,675 ✭✭✭✭Jamie2k9


    theballz wrote: »
    He is 2/1. It's frightening.

    He received 130,500 (Mid/N West) first pref votes in October Presidential Election. In 2014 EU elections the last seat was won with 106,500 seats and now there is an extra seat up for grabs.

    Turnout should be similar to presidential and he will likely be transfer friendly as well across all sides.


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    #363
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Casey will get elected, sadly - candidates playing into his hands by letting the debate revolve around him.
    He can't be, not on what his alleged support figures say. McGuinness will probably bring in Walsh and then Ming and Cathy for the other two seats.


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    #364
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    He received 130,500 (Mid/N West) first pref votes in October Presidential Election. In 2014 EU elections the last seat was won with 106,500 seats and now there is an extra seat up for grabs.

    Turnout should be similar to presidential and he will likely be transfer friendly as well across all sides.

    Presidential was no contest. There is no free 20% floating about. 10% will not get him elected. I disagree on transfers, as he is a type that people will give FPV to or none at all. That last seat BTW went to Harkin, a well respected community activist in her time and all down to transfers. Casey is none of those things.


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    #365
    For Forks Sake
    Registered Users Posts: 11,497 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake


    Jamie2k9 wrote: »
    He received 130,500 (Mid/N West) first pref votes in October Presidential Election. In 2014 EU elections the last seat was won with 106,500 seats and now there is an extra seat up for grabs.

    Turnout should be similar to presidential and he will likely be transfer friendly as well across all sides.

    In an election where there was no FF or FG candidate and a SF candidate barely recognisable outside of her own parish?
    Totally different scenario this time out where those votes will return to their natural homes and/or the other plethora of indys / single issue cranks.


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    #366
    For Forks Sake
    Registered Users Posts: 11,497 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake


    theballz wrote: »
    He is 2/1. It's frightening.

    For context, that 2/1 makes him 6th favourite in a four-seat constituency.

    McGuinness FG 1/20
    Ming Flanagan IND 1/16
    Carthy SF 1/12
    Walsh FG 8/15 (I can only guess she's that low on the expectation that McGuinness surplus will bring her in)
    Smith FF 8/11
    Casey IND 2/1


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    #367
    Hal3000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 818 ✭✭✭Hal3000


    Remember folks there are only 2 days left before voting begins. You should also remember that this is absolute last time you'll see or hear from any of these candidates until another election comes about.


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    #368
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    I was very impressed with Saoirse McHugh of the Green Party on the RTE PrimeTime debate - hadn't heard of her before but thought she was comfortably the best of the participants in the debate.

    Don't have a vote in Midlands-North West but if I had, she'd be getting my number 1.


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    #369
    Rain Ascending
    Registered Users Posts: 172 ✭✭Rain Ascending


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Presidential was no contest. There is no free 20% floating about. 10% will not get him elected. I disagree on transfers, as he is a type that people will give FPV to or none at all. That last seat BTW went to Harkin, a well respected community activist in her time and all down to transfers. Casey is none of those things.

    Well his performance on the Prime Time debate tonight won't have won him many extra votes. He was pretty incoherent, tried to cut across others too many times, and was even fact checked by Luke "Ming" Flanagan, of all people, on "immigrant welfare scroungers"! I'd agree would you, is_that_so, that he will struggle to get transfers, at least on the basis of what I saw tonight.

    He may do better on one-to-one radio interviews depending on the skill of the interviewer -- has anybody heard him in action recently?


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    #370
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,267 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    For Forks Sake wrote: »
    For context, that 2/1 makes him 6th favourite in a four-seat constituency.

    McGuinness FG 1/20
    Ming Flanagan IND 1/16
    Carthy SF 1/12
    Walsh FG 8/15 (I can only guess she's that low on the expectation that McGuinness surplus will bring her in)
    Smith FF 8/11
    Casey IND 2/1


    I really can't see FF failing to get one seat in a four-seat constituency. They would have to really mess up on transfers.

    That makes Walsh an outsider, unless Carthy or Flanagan drop back.


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    #371
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I really can't see FF failing to get one seat in a four-seat constituency.


    It was a four seater in 2014 and they got no seats. Pat The Cope is not running this time. He was last FF man standing in 2014, beaten by Matt Carthy of Sinn Fein who is running (and a cert). Their other candidate from 2014, Thomas Byrne, is a TD now and not running.

    Instead we have Anne Rabbitte, a no-hoper from Loughrea, and Brendan Smith, a TD and survivor from the Bertie/Cowen days, most famous for the free cheese scheme, becoming what wikipedia calls "a laughing stock internationally".


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    #372
    blackwhite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,544 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    It was a four seater in 2014 and they got no seats. Pat The Cope is not running this time. He was last FF man standing in 2014, beaten by Matt Carthy of Sinn Fein who is running (and a cert). Their other candidate from 2014, Thomas Byrne, is a TD now and not running.

    Instead we have Anne Rabbitte, a no-hoper from Loughrea, and Brendan Smith, a TD and survivor from the Bertie/Cowen days, most famous for the free cheese scheme, becoming what wikipedia calls "a laughing stock internationally".

    There's also Dilip Mahapatra, who failed to win the FF nomination but is running as IND anyway.

    He was nominated by FF in Louth to contest the party nomination, so is likely to split the FF vote in one of the more heavily populated areas of the constituency.


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    #373
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    blackwhite wrote: »
    Tonight’s debate highlighting how poor the quality of candidate is in Dublin. Alice Mary Higgins probably coming off best so far, but none of them looking particularly good.
    The Soc Dem guy had a rocky start, but I thought he did quite well towards the end.


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    #374
    c_murph
    Registered Users Posts: 40 ✭c_murph


    Rain Ascending wrote: »
    He was pretty incoherent, tried to cut across others too many times, and was even fact checked by Luke "Ming" Flanagan, of all people, on "immigrant welfare scroungers"! I'd agree would you, is_that_so, that he will struggle to get transfers, at least on the basis of what I saw tonight.

    Agree with this - Casey seemed unable to string a single sentence together, an extraordinarily poor performance. I can't see him getting many transfers. And the interruptions!

    He was only outdone in incoherence by the pretty funny last couple of minutes of the debate, as McCullagh desperately tried to stop Brendan Smith talking.

    Considering she is a first-timer in an electoral contest, Saoirse McHugh was very impressive. She should certainly have gained a few votes, ideally at Casey's expense.


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    #375
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,740 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    lirr0b2zaqz21.png

    Adding to Caseys incompetence here he is at 1:30 am replying to quite obviously parody Luke Ming Flanagan tweets from 5 years ago


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    #376
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I really can't see FF failing to get one seat in a four-seat constituency. They would have to really mess up on transfers.

    That makes Walsh an outsider, unless Carthy or Flanagan drop back.

    McGuinness seems to be on over 25% and even a reasonable level of transfers would see Walsh home if she's on at least 10-12%. She may poll higher and it could be a done deal as early as the 2nd count as that will be for the surplus. FF seem to have a combined total of about 17%. That might be enough for a set but it depends on where Ming and Carthy are and how good the transfers are. Their candidates are not the greatest.


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    #377
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,267 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    is_that_so wrote: »
    McGuinness seems to be on over 25% and even a reasonable level of transfers would see Walsh home if she's on at least 10-12%. She may poll higher and it could be a done deal as early as the 2nd count as that will be for the surplus. FF seem to have a combined total of about 17%. That might be enough for a set but it depends on where Ming and Carthy are and how good the transfers are. Their candidates are not the greatest.

    Yeah, I can see that argument all right. Any failure to transfer between the FF candidates and they are in trouble.

    Are there any more opinion polls due, does anyone know?


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    #378
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,083 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    It was a four seater in 2014 and they got no seats. Pat The Cope is not running this time. He was last FF man standing in 2014, beaten by Matt Carthy of Sinn Fein who is running (and a cert). Their other candidate from 2014, Thomas Byrne, is a TD now and not running.

    Instead we have Anne Rabbitte, a no-hoper from Loughrea, and Brendan Smith, a TD and survivor from the Bertie/Cowen days, most famous for the free cheese scheme, becoming what wikipedia calls "a laughing stock internationally".

    Conventional wisdom is they would have won a seat last time if they had only run one candidate. So they are testing Einstein's definition of insanity by going with a two-candidate strategy again. Although Smith is very much the party's favoured son. I saw Dara Calleary taking delivery of some 'BS' posters outside his office in Ballina the other day.


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    #379
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    I'm amazed and shocked that people are suggesting Maria Walsh is a good candidate and will be elected. I know the candidates in MNW aren't great but it would be incredible to see such a woeful candidate elected.

    Look at the state of this from her today: twitter.com/MariaWalshEU/status/1131154074747973632

    I give up up on this country if a no nothing American rose of Tralee gets elected to office purely for wearing a Fine Gael badge. And pretending to represent young people while doing so. She doesn't represent me or anyone I know in this area. Whatever about McGuinness, at least she is a credible candidate. I doubt anyone under 45 will even vote for Maria Walsh.


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    #380
    Force Carrier
    Closed Accounts Posts: 594 ✭✭✭Force Carrier


    Peter Casey is interacting with a 2013 tweet from a Luke Ming parody account.


    D7-KOKb8-Xk-AINasu.jpg


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    #381
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Yeah, I can see that argument all right. Any failure to transfer between the FF candidates and they are in trouble.

    Are there any more opinion polls due, does anyone know?
    I'd say we're done with them. Moratorium tomorrow!


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    #382
    theguzman
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    Force Carrier wrote: »
    Peter Casey is interacting with a 2013 tweet from a Luke Ming parody account.

    Like Podge and Rodge the two of them, both far more likeable than Maria Walsh thats for sure.


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    #383
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    I'm amazed and shocked that people are suggesting Maria Walsh is a good candidate and will be elected. I know the candidates in MNW aren't great but it would be incredible to see such a woeful candidate elected.

    Look at the state of this from her today: twitter.com/MariaWalshEU/status/1131154074747973632

    I give up up on this country if a no nothing American rose of Tralee gets elected to office purely for wearing a Fine Gael badge. And pretending to represent young people while doing so. She doesn't represent me or anyone I know in this area. Whatever about McGuinness, at least she is a credible candidate. I doubt anyone under 45 will even vote for Maria Walsh.


    The absolute state of that video, what absolute garbage. Offensively bad - FG actually think the population are idiots serving her up to us.


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    #384
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,628 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    I'm amazed and shocked that people are suggesting Maria Walsh is a good candidate and will be elected. I know the candidates in MNW aren't great but it would be incredible to see such a woeful candidate elected.

    Look at the state of this from her today: twitter.com/MariaWalshEU/status/1131154074747973632

    I give up up on this country if a no nothing American rose of Tralee gets elected to office purely for wearing a Fine Gael badge. And pretending to represent young people while doing so. She doesn't represent me or anyone I know in this area. Whatever about McGuinness, at least she is a credible candidate. I doubt anyone under 45 will even vote for Maria Walsh.

    You realise she's Irish not American and just represented an area of America for the Rose of Tralee ?


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    #385
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,083 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Force Carrier wrote: »
    Peter Casey is interacting with a 2013 tweet from a Luke Ming parody account.


    D7-KOKb8-Xk-AINasu.jpg

    Like a parody of Trump himself:P


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    #386
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Yurt! wrote: »
    The absolute state of that video, what absolute garbage. Offensively bad - FG actually think the population are idiots serving her up to us.
    10% or so seem to like her and she may well get elected. What you really need to do with candidates is compare who they are running against!


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    #387
    Galwayguy35
    Registered Users Posts: 16,355 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Casey was all over the place last night on the debate, I think he shot himself in the foot complaining about EU migrants because nobody as an issue with them being here.

    The PBP fella was no better, he hadn't a clue what he was trying to say.


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    #388
    Galwayguy35
    Registered Users Posts: 16,355 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    is_that_so wrote: »
    10% or so seem to like her and she may well get elected. What you really need to do with candidates is compare who they are running against!

    She hasn't a notion of getting elected.


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    #389
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    I would not take much head of polling, only 400 people were polled in that Irish Times poll. The electorate is closer to 1.5 million in MNW. Australian polling last week was totally wrong, it is clearly no longer reliable.

    4th seat is up for grabs. I have a feeling Casey might nick it even though he was embarrassing last night.


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    #390
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    I would not take much head of polling, only 400 people were polled in that Irish Times poll. The electorate is closer to 1.5 million in MNW. Australian polling last week was totally wrong, it is clearly no longer reliable.

    4th seat is up for grabs. I have a feeling Casey might nick it even though he was embarrassing last night.

    Take note of Paddy Power odds, where he has drifted out from 2/1 yesterday to 4-1, while Saoirse McHugh of the Greens has come into that figure from 50/1 - pretty much the exact opposite of what happened during the presidential campaign.


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    #391
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Take note of Paddy Power odds, where he has drifted out from 2/1 yesterday to 4-1, while Saoirse McHugh of the Greens has come into that figure from 50/1 - pretty much the exact opposite of what happened during the presidential campaign.

    She was impressive last night. But how much will last night debate influence it. She is unknown and has massive ground to make up. Casey will still get a decent protest vote I reckon.

    Casey got over 123,000 first preference votes in the Midlands North West constituency in the Presidential election in October. Unless that totally collapses, he has a very good chance IMO. I won't be voting for him either, but think it's worth a few quid at 4-1 tbh.


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