European Parliament Elections 2019

FrancieBrady · 10-05-2019 12:37pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

There's always swings and roundabouts with these things though. Smith will pick up transfers from the southern end of the constituency that he would not have got if he was running on his own. Whatever way things pan out, I would be surprised if FF do not manage one seat out of four in the constituency where they have historically been strongest. I suppose the wild card is Maria Walsh, who will pick up transfers from left/anti-establishment candidates that a true blue FGer would not have gotten.

I think on those figures Walsh will make it. Casey seems to me to be an 'either or' candidate.
You either buy into him fully and give him a FP or nothing at all.

laoch na mona · 10-05-2019 12:38pm

man98 wrote: »

Wallace is a gombeen, but not one that is comparable to the Healy Raes et al - he doesn't promise to do anything for the people, and will not bend over backwards for anyone but himself - this is why he lost so many votes. He was not elected for parish pump issues, rather the sort of issues which should be what dominates Irish elections. However, he is absolutely not the person to do it and has not done in properly. Wallace purports to drain the same metaphoric swamp as Trump but his issue is that he is the swamp (as is Trump, but that's beside the point). I don't like charlatans, but he's a whole different kind of charlatan to the like of Lowry or Healy Raes.

a gombeen means a rural person who gets a head at the expence of his neighbours ie shop keepers who had the entire parish on credit before coops and credit unions existed, something similar to Kulaks in pre soviet Russia. Wallace is a lot of things but Gombeen he is not

Danzy · 10-05-2019 12:46pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think on those figures Walsh will make it. Casey seems to me to be an 'either or' candidate.
You either buy into him fully and give him a FP or nothing at all.

I think he will get a lot of transfers off Ming and Carty voters who are often rural working class.

They'll vote first preference in line with previous but he'll get a lot if no. 2s

He'll have a lot of anti establishment sympathy, he raised issues that many in politics, media etc think are not up for discussion.

Being the dissenting voice will get backing.

MFPM · 10-05-2019 1:04pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

So not doing super lefty things like a wealth tax males them right wing now ? , theyre centerists with a sliver of lefty on the social policy aspect, its the reality of it . They are not a right wing party by any real metric. You’d just preffer to think that so you can sit there like the simpsons “old man shakes fist at cloud”

Ive asked for right wing policies that the party has implemented and you came back with coveney backing a coup to save the starving venezuelan people and a hardline left viewpoint of social programs and spending. FG are only right wing if you consider pbp centerists, which they are not.

This is tiresome, I posted numerous illustrations for FG's devotion to the market as befitting their right wing ideology. You ignored the points and responded with new points. I responded to them and you've broadly ignored it and once again.

So not doing super lefty things like a wealth tax males them right wing now ? ,

Again, it's not the micro, it's the macro. No one policy necesssarily defines a party but when taken with many more policies one can discern a direction and FG's direction is frimly to the right.

They are not a right wing party by any real metric.

They area right wing party by most measures.

ve asked for right wing policies that the party has implemented and you came back with coveney backing a coup to save the starving venezuelan people and a hardline left viewpoint of social programs and spending.

I outlined several and the policy on Venezuela was ONE, stop being so dishonest, if you can't argue with me then admit that but stop engaging is dishonesty.

If you think US imperialism and Guaido are interested in 'saving' the starving Venezuelan people , you're more naive or dishonest than I thought.

Loafing Oaf · 10-05-2019 1:08pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think on those figures Walsh will make it.

You would think the FF machine will go into overdrive in this constituency between now and the election though. Be a big blow to party morale if they didn't take a seat here. If they mobilise every party loyalist they should just about manage it, notwithstanding the underwhelming nature of the candidates.

blackwhite · 10-05-2019 1:14pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

You would think the FF machine will go into overdrive in this constituency between now and the election though. Be a big blow to party morale if they didn't take a seat here. If they mobilise every party loyalist they should just about manage it, notwithstanding the underwhelming nature of the candidates.

They’ve also got the problem of the doctor in Louth who failed to get selected by FF running as an Indo - he’s going to take a number of 1st preferences away from them. As will Casey

Danzy · 10-05-2019 1:16pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

FF were idiots running 2 in MNW, they could've been booking office space for Smith already if they hadn't.

In many parts they think their fall from no.1 party in the State is a temporary thing.

To compound that delusion they picked 2 exceptionally bland candidates.

Anne Rabbitte might not even excite herself enough to go and vote.

An Ciarraioch · 10-05-2019 1:28pm

Danzy wrote: »

I think he will get a lot of transfers off Ming and Carty voters who are often rural working class.

They'll vote first preference in line with previous but he'll get a lot if no. 2s

He'll have a lot of anti establishment sympathy, he raised issues that many in politics, media etc think are not up for discussion.

Being the dissenting voice will get backing.

Ming and Carthy would be elected more or less on the quota, so wouldn't have many, if any, transfers left to distribute.

Danzy · 10-05-2019 1:31pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Ming and Carthy would be elected more or less on the quota, so wouldn't have many, if any, transfers left to distribute.

Good point.

Loafing Oaf · 10-05-2019 2:04pm

blackwhite wrote: »

Looks like Fitzgerald will take 1st seat in Dublin. Andrews probably the 2nd - but I'd wonder how well he'll do on transfers. Appears to be Boylan, Daly and Cuffe fighting for 3rd and the "Brexit" 4th seat - but it wouldn't be impossible to see transfers pushing one of them above Andrews.
Where the transfers of White and Durkan land could end up having a big say on seats 3-4.

And you would think Cuffe holds more appeal for those voters than Daly. I think Boylan will come through in the end too; the SF machine in Dublin should be strong enough to mobilise left-leaning voters for her to a greater extent than for Daly.

Danzy · 10-05-2019 2:13pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

And you would think Cuffe holds more appeal for those voters than Daly. I think Boylan will come through in the end too; the SF machine in Dublin should be strong enough to mobilise left-leaning voters for her to a greater extent than for Daly.

Boylan can veer in to the cliche machine at times. Look at Liadhs speeches in the Presidential debates, buzzword and stock phrases saying nothing.

I voted for her but Jesus wept who is advising them on presentation and theme.

Zubeneschamali · 10-05-2019 2:52pm

"Danzy wrote: »

voted for her but Jesus wept who is advising them on presentation and theme.

Fighting For Ireland!

Kingdom · 10-05-2019 3:19pm

I don't post (ever) on politics forums, so please go easy on me, I've read a few of the pages back and most of you seen very clued in. I'm an amateur politics fan, so have a big interest in electoral results, and also with predictions. In light of the latter, I've got to say I'm astounded at some of the "polling". It would be important to point out that I've no ties to any political party, or to a politician.
Dublin would be my constituency this time around, whereas previously it would have been Midlands-North-West.

In Dublin, in my opinion there isn't a hope of Lynn Boylan not being elected. The Shinners have canvassed hard, and there support base in Dublin is huge. That the polls would have Barry Andrews - no offence to him- at such at a high percentage compared to Lynn Boylan immediately makes me sceptical. Bar the two bays, there isn't an area of Dublin where Fianna Fail would outvote SF. And the Shinners have been excellent in getting people to turn out to the polls.

Everyone knows Francis Fitz will do well. She's the biggest name on the ballot paper.

FreudianSlippers · 10-05-2019 3:57pm

MFPM wrote: »

Do tell us what would be so 'interesting' about that?

I would be interested in seeing her out of day-to-day politics.

is_that_so · 10-05-2019 4:22pm

Danzy wrote: »

I think he will get a lot of transfers off Ming and Carty voters who are often rural working class.

They'll vote first preference in line with previous but he'll get a lot if no. 2s

He'll have a lot of anti establishment sympathy, he raised issues that many in politics, media etc think are not up for discussion.

Being the dissenting voice will get backing.

He just can't get a seat off 7% even if he gets all of McGuinness',Carthy's and Ming's transfers. When Carthy and Ming are elected there really won't be much of a transfer and Walsh stands to gain a huge tranche from McGuinness pus FF will transfer to each other.

is_that_so · 10-05-2019 4:26pm

blackwhite wrote: »

You'd imagine so - but it would still likely leave her needing 3-4% to reach the quota. Transfers from others still going to be critical for her.

No, not if FG manage the vote well and she gets 80%+ of that she could get elected without reaching the quota as Harkin was. Only FF might be close to her. Casey will not.

blackwhite · 10-05-2019 4:54pm

is_that_so wrote: »

No, not if FG manage the vote well and she gets 80%+ of that she could get elected without reaching the quota as Harkin was. Only FF might be close to her. Casey will not.

Depends on how strong McGuinness' surplus ends up being really.

That said, I'd hope to see her get in. Went to college and played football with her brother and met her a good few times back then - very nice girl back then and from what I've seen seems to be a very nice and capable woman now.

is_that_so · 10-05-2019 5:58pm

blackwhite wrote: »

Depends on how strong McGuinness' surplus ends up being really.

That said, I'd hope to see her get in. Went to college and played football with her brother and met her a good few times back then - very nice girl back then and from what I've seen seems to be a very nice and capable woman now.

Sure but I think she just needs to be ahead of the pack by a decent margin. Even 14-15% might see her home.

Loafing Oaf · 10-05-2019 7:38pm

Kingdom wrote: »

I

In Dublin, in my opinion there isn't a hope of Lynn Boylan not being elected. The Shinners have canvassed hard, and there support base in Dublin is huge. That the polls would have Barry Andrews - no offence to him- at such at a high percentage compared to Lynn Boylan immediately makes me sceptical. Bar the two bays, there isn't an area of Dublin where Fianna Fail would outvote SF. And the Shinners have been excellent in getting people to turn out to the polls.

Everyone knows Francis Fitz will do well. She's the biggest name on the ballot paper.

You've kind of answered your own question here. If the polls are borne out on election day, the left/anti-establishment vote is fragmented and Boylan struggles to stay ahead of Daly, Cuffe and White. In practice, a large chunk of Daly-leaning voters don't actually turn up at the polls, whereas like you say the SF machine excels at getting vote out, so Boylan's share of the vote is higher than the opinion poll indicates and she is probably second elected after Fitzgerald.

is_that_so · 10-05-2019 10:05pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

You've kind of answered your own question here. If the polls are borne out on election day, the left/anti-establishment vote is fragmented and Boylan struggles to stay ahead of Daly, Cuffe and White. In practice, a large chunk of Daly-leaning voters don't actually turn up at the polls, whereas like you say the SF machine excels at getting vote out, so Boylan's share of the vote is higher than the opinion poll indicates and she is probably second elected after Fitzgerald.

By the looks of the poll it will be down to whether Cuffe can tap into a floating Green vote and where White's transfers go. I think the first three are likely to pan out as polled here. Daly can't get in off 10% and even Durkan may get up amongst the final seat contenders if that Fitzgerald vote actually happens on election day. Would see it as a fight between Cuffe, Daly and maybe maybe Durkan.

MFPM · 11-05-2019 7:06am

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I would be interested in seeing her out of day-to-day politics.

An odd choice of words! I suspect what ever happens in your 'interest' on the above will be dashed.

Loafing Oaf · 11-05-2019 11:15am

blackwhite wrote: »

South is probably a bit tighter, with Kelly looking strong, and LNR and Kelleher unlikely to miss out. One of Clune or Doyle will likely get a seat - albeit possibly the 5th seat if they struggle with transfers. Any of Wallace, Nunan or O'Sullivan could make a surge on transfers to challenge for either 4th or 5th seat either.

Not sure if you're writing him off or you forgot to mention him, but Paddy Power have FF's Malcolm Byrne level with Wallace to take what would presumably be the fifth seat in South. As with Smith in MNW, you'd imagine it will be a question of whether the party machine performs to the max. Also it remains to be seen how broad Wallace's popularity really is outside his Wexford bailiwick. They seem to be writing Nunan off at 12/1.

nice_guy80 · 11-05-2019 11:17am

The article in the Irish Times today by Stephen Collins shows again that the urban media don't really understand rural politics.
There's nothing wrong with electing Independent candidates.
In fact, it's a sign of a healthy democracy

expectationlost · 17-05-2019 2:33pm

another european vote matching quiz 25 questions https://yourvotematters.eu the only new candidate to fill in the questionnaire is grace o'sullivan

is_that_so · 17-05-2019 2:41pm

expectationlost wrote: »

another european vote matching quiz 25 questions https://yourvotematters.eu I did it twice and twice failed to give me results

TBH this thing just matches up against party positions and most of them have the same one to differing degrees. The answers are not helpful and can show you voting for parties you have no interest in!

An Ciarraioch · 17-05-2019 4:18pm

Interesting stats by the NI statistician Niall Kelly, based on the recent Lucid Talk poll:

32% of SF voters describe themselves as "No Religion", with an even split of working class and middle class voters.

Eastwood supporters overwhelmingly describe themselves as Catholic, while Long has a mix of Catholic, Protestant and non-religious voters. Both have largely middle-class support bases.

Within unionism, an interesting split, as CDEs largely vote DUP, while farmers and ABC1s favour the DUP and TUV.

Nationalists outpoll unionists until the age of 44, practically even from 44 to 65, with unionists dominating from then onwards.

http://twitter.com/nkbelfast/status/1129068356546514944

http://twitter.com/nkbelfast/status/1129068363580354560

Nijmegen · 17-05-2019 5:34pm

I think folks looking at the Dublin race might do well to remember how the 2014 election went. Specifically the fragmented left wing / independent / others vote coalescing into a very tight race between Nessa Childers and Eamon Ryan. Childers (Ind) only overtook Ryan (Grn) when Paul Murphy (Soc) went down, and he had previously picked up the lions share of Brid Smith's (PBP) vote. Boylan went over the top early but benefited a lot from Smith's transfers also and presumably, had she been further off a quota, would have done so as Murphy etc went down too.

So I think Boylan will be fine as SF manage their vote well and in any event among the 19(!) candidates there's probably 10 also-ran lefties and independents who will go down and send her transfers. The polls putting Fitzgerald at 22% and Andrews at 18% should see them get there. The big knife fight really will be for the mythical 4th seat post-Brexit, which on the balance of probabilities would be Clare Daly on name recognition in transferring from that large field of also-ran people.

An Ciarraioch · 17-05-2019 7:28pm

An investigation that may very well influence the Austrian result - the leader of the Freedom Party meets a fake niece of a Russian oligarch, and confesses a desire to control the Austrian media:

https://projekte.sueddeutsche.de/artikel/politik/caught-in-the-trap-e675751/?autologin=true

murphaph · 19-05-2019 8:59am

And not only the Euparl elections! Kurz has called snap elections in Austria because of this. Hopefully the Austrian people will correct their mistake of electing Mr. Strache's party to government in the first place.

A clear picture is emerging across Europe of Russian backing for these right wing extremist parties. It's high time the people of Europe woke up to this malignant influence.

I had the pleasure of seeing NPD posters here in my town telling me "Germany for us Germans". Not something you want to be told as a foreigner.

is_that_so · 19-05-2019 9:05am

murphaph wrote: »

I had the pleasure of seeing NPD posters here in my town telling me "Germany for us Germans". Not something you want to be told as a foreigner.

I used to get flyers through my letterbox when I lived there. They made me laugh very loudly. Prize idiots whose support ebbs and flows amongst a very small, very angry but very fickle base.

European Parliament Elections 2019

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