Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Havockk · 13-03-2019 09:56PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Whats there to be scared of? They either stay or they leave on Mays deal. Those are the options we have today

Well right now, there are lifelines, safety nets so to speak. If a 2nd ref was to vote leave, it's game over.

devnull · 13-03-2019 09:57PM

Deputy Chair of the ERG Mark Francois on Sky now making a case that politics is broken when people don't obey the whip, clearly he doesn't believe in democracy, which is quite ironic since he's been saying that is the reason Brexit needs to happen but now he wants to prevent people from having a democratic right to vote the way they want.

Says also that he won't back TM's deal because he considers it as staying in the European Union and that is not acceptable to him and that it only passed by 4 votes for the amendment and as such it isn't really a ringing endorsement.

Was challenged about losing and said that he was in the army so he never accepts losing which was a little amusing, comes across very smug that someone didn't vote the way he wanted so it's not fair and must not count but you can be sure that if it did go the way he want it certainly will count.

Have to say the ERG are full of bad losers who say they are supporting democracy but it's only when democracy goes the way they want it. If it doesn't they're trying to say it doesn't count. Typical spoilt rich guys if you ask me who are used to getting their own way.

Leroy42 · 13-03-2019 09:58PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

A 2nd ref for what? Who would actually campaign for remain at this point?

Remainers probably would campaign for it.

So neither of the two main party leaders, few of the main politicians. So what, TIG and a few celebs?

mugsymugsy · 13-03-2019 10:00PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Beth Rigby telling Mark Francois that for Brexiteers voting for the WA is now the lesser of 2 evils. Has TMs deal still a chance as the arithmetic is there if the ERG and DUP blink?

Mark Francois in that interview and I quote "I was in the army and I wasn't trained to lose" When you have Harry Enfield Essex wide boys stomping their feet you have to laugh.

Gizmo55 · 13-03-2019 10:01PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

A 2nd ref for what? Who would actually campaign for remain at this point?

Safe to say the public are a bit more informed this time.

j8wk2feszrnpao · 13-03-2019 10:02PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

While Mary Creagh is speaking, Theresa May is sat there smirking and shaking her head. Appalling behavior when so many livelihoods are at stake.

And that's why I said earlier int he day that I have zero sympathy for her. She is presiding over this mess and need to Maybot off the stage.

SimonTemplar · 13-03-2019 10:03PM

Synode wrote: »

I can't see the EU giving an extension for anything else

Can the EU really force a country into a referendum though? Would that not be a fairly brazen move on their part?

Enzokk · 13-03-2019 10:05PM

May will still be determined to get her deal through, by any means possible. The question will be if Bercow allows her deal to be voted on again and how far she will go to try and force MPs to vote for her deal. I think she will very much take it to the wire on the 30th June with the cliff edge and there will be nothing but a cliff edge for her deal. The question then will be if the ERG will have her deal or no-deal and then it will be up to Labour to avoid no-deal.

This is still a mess with no leadership from any side.

Havockk · 13-03-2019 10:05PM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Can the EU really force a country into a referendum though? Would that not be a fairly brazen move on their part?

If reports today are to be believed this has been preempted by brexiteers who have visited both Poland and Hungary last week to petition them to reject any request for an extension.

dresden8 · 13-03-2019 10:05PM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Can the EU really force a country into a referendum though? Would that not be a fairly brazen move on their part?

They cant force anything.

They can deny an extension.

This is a version of the UK blaming all around for their huge clusterfnck.

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 10:06PM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Can the EU really force a country into a referendum though? Would that not be a fairly brazen move on their part?

The EU won't be forcing them to do anything.

Roger_007 · 13-03-2019 10:06PM

Gizmo55 wrote: »

I can only see a second referendum. Honestly, I don't see anything else.

Under the, (unwritten), British constitution, Parliament is sovereign. A referendum can only be advisory and is only a snapshot of the public view at a point in time. In any case there are very few major political decisions that can be reduced to a simple yes/no question. Referendums are often used as a form of protest vote against whoever is proposing the subject matter to be decided, rather than voting on the merits of the issue.
It is the job of MPs in a representative democracy to tease out complex issues and legislate accordingly.
Another referendum won't solve anything no matter which side wins. It's up to Parliament to do its duty.

13-03-2019 10:09PM

mugsymugsy wrote: »

Mark Francois in that interview and I quote "I was in the army and I wasn't trained to lose" When you have Harry Enfield Essex wide boys stomping their feet you have to laugh.

Theres always a first time. RTEs London correspondent mentioned on the 9pm news that ‘meaningful vote 3’ now being discussed. Tony Connelly saying a vote possible on 20th March.

dresden8 · 13-03-2019 10:09PM

mugsymugsy wrote: »

Mark Francois in that interview and I quote "I was in the army and I wasn't trained to lose" When you have Harry Enfield Essex wide boys stomping their feet you have to laugh.

He was in the TA.

He was trained by Lloyds Bank. To be a greedy cnt.

SimonTemplar · 13-03-2019 10:10PM

Here are the MPs who voted for / against that Spelman amendment https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/626

Capt'n Midnight · 13-03-2019 10:12PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

A 2nd ref for what? Who would actually campaign for remain at this point?

May will try for May's deal again won't she ?

Corbyn will be looking for a GE or a mandate to try to renegotiate.

SNP will be angling for Indyref2

Lib Dems may try to put distance between themselves and TIG so my not be united.

And it's all moot as we don't know what the options will be.

Simplest thing is to remind the Great British Public that the WA / May's deal is only a temporary arrangement to allow time to do the actual deal.

At best it's only the beginning of round 2.

The choices should be
Remain as is.
Years more of "meaningful votes" and other lies before the actual Brexit.

Gizmo55 · 13-03-2019 10:12PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Under the, (unwritten), British constitution, Parliament is sovereign. A referendum can only be advisory and is only a snapshot of the public view at a point in time. In any case there are very few major political decisions that can be reduced to a simple yes/no question. Referendums are often used as a form of protest vote against whoever is proposing the subject matter to be decided, rather than voting on the merits of the issue.
It is the job of MPs in a representative democracy to tease out complex issues and legislate accordingly.
Another referendum won't solve anything no matter which side wins. It's up to Parliament to do its duty.

But what happens when Parliament can't do it's duty? That was my point.

Beechwoodspark · 13-03-2019 10:13PM

The softest Brexit so?

Irishmale0399 · 13-03-2019 10:14PM

Gizmo55 wrote: »

But what happens when Parliament can't do it's duty? That was my point.

Is that not the point where TM can revoke the whole thing and get back to being European???

Calltocall · 13-03-2019 10:14PM

So if they are indeed granted an extension what is the likelihood that she will get her deal over the line during the extension timeframe, like are we not heading for a third defeat here, what can she change to close the gap of over a hundred votes which she lost by yesterday??? I’m lost

Water John · 13-03-2019 10:14PM

TM is aiming for a 3rd vote on Mar 20th but as Alastair Campbell pointed out, her plans generally don't work out.
Wait for the amendments tomorrow. vote on Ext at 5 pm.

Corbyn has indicated in his reply tonight that he will speak to different groups in Parliament and he did mention 2nd Ref as one of the options.

dresden8 · 13-03-2019 10:17PM

New game now.

What countries would be more than happy to see the UK go now rather than later?

The French are always looking to big themselves up.

Thoughts?

Sardonicat · 13-03-2019 10:18PM

Calltocall wrote: »

So if they are indeed granted an extension what is the likelihood that she will get her deal over the line during the extension timeframe, like are we not heading for a third defeat here, what can she change to close the gap of over a hundred votes which she lost by yesterday??? I’m lost

She basically threatened them with the 'no-deal' scenario. Today's vote was not legally binding.

Surely if it doesn't get through in a 3rd vote they'll have to have a people's vote?

How long can this chaos reign? Is any governing actually happening at the moment?

Inquitus · 13-03-2019 10:20PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

She basically threatened them with the 'no-deal' scenario. Today's vote was not legally binding.

Surely if it doesn't get through in a 3rd vote they'll have to have a people's vote?

How long can this chaos reign? Is any governing actually happening at the moment?

The interesting question for us now is, are we better off if the ERG vote down the WA agreement a 3rd time, and we can perhaps look forward to potentially better outcomes?

Irishmale0399 · 13-03-2019 10:21PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

She basically threatened them with the 'no-deal' scenario. Today's vote was not legally binding.

Surely if it doesn't get through in a 3rd vote they'll have to have a people's vote?

How long can this chaos reign? Is any governing actually happening at the moment?

Dont forget to have time for a peoples vote they have to either revoke A50 or ask for an extension. The big question is will all EU member states accept an extension or will they say its much of the same...

Leroy42 · 13-03-2019 10:21PM

Calltocall wrote: »

So if they are indeed granted an extension what is the likelihood that she will get her deal over the line during the extension timeframe, like are we not heading for a third defeat here, what can she change to close the gap of over a hundred votes which she lost by yesterday??? I’m lost

She is betting on the cliff edge to scare enough into voting for her deal.

There is no doubt that the likes of the ERG will come under increasing pressure to accept TMs deal rather than potentially a delay or a cancellation.

And that's it. No 0lan based on arguing the points. No plan to work to allay people's fears and get others on board. Simply putting a gun to people's head

SimonTemplar · 13-03-2019 10:21PM

dresden8 wrote: »

New game now.

What countries would be more than happy to see the UK go now rather than later?

The French are always looking to big themselves up.

Thoughts?

Will the countries have a "free vote" or will they vote collectively based on the recommendation from EU leadership?

Inquitus · 13-03-2019 10:23PM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Will the countries have a "free vote" or will they vote collectively based on the recommendation from EU leadership?

Their vote is sovereign, ofc the EU can make a recommendation and apply, perhaps, some political pressure, but at the end of the day it's in each one of the E27's hands.

Water John · 13-03-2019 10:24PM

Don't forget EU Parliament have to also agree.

Stacksofwacks · 13-03-2019 10:25PM

May will make another attempt to get the deal through. It will not succeed unless the EU give serious ground on the backstop..not happening. I can see her revoking article 50 at the 11th hour saying the government cant reach a consensus on brexit and its up to a future government if they want to continue with the policy.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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