Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Inquitus

Sardonicat wrote: »

She basically threatened them with the 'no-deal' scenario. Today's vote was not legally binding.

Surely if it doesn't get through in a 3rd vote they'll have to have a people's vote?

How long can this chaos reign? Is any governing actually happening at the moment?

The interesting question for us now is, are we better off if the ERG vote down the WA agreement a 3rd time, and we can perhaps look forward to potentially better outcomes?

Irishmale0399

Sardonicat wrote: »

She basically threatened them with the 'no-deal' scenario. Today's vote was not legally binding.

Surely if it doesn't get through in a 3rd vote they'll have to have a people's vote?

How long can this chaos reign? Is any governing actually happening at the moment?

Dont forget to have time for a peoples vote they have to either revoke A50 or ask for an extension. The big question is will all EU member states accept an extension or will they say its much of the same...

Leroy42

Calltocall wrote: »

So if they are indeed granted an extension what is the likelihood that she will get her deal over the line during the extension timeframe, like are we not heading for a third defeat here, what can she change to close the gap of over a hundred votes which she lost by yesterday??? I’m lost

She is betting on the cliff edge to scare enough into voting for her deal.

There is no doubt that the likes of the ERG will come under increasing pressure to accept TMs deal rather than potentially a delay or a cancellation.

And that's it. No 0lan based on arguing the points. No plan to work to allay people's fears and get others on board. Simply putting a gun to people's head

SimonTemplar

dresden8 wrote: »

New game now.

What countries would be more than happy to see the UK go now rather than later?

The French are always looking to big themselves up.

Thoughts?

Will the countries have a "free vote" or will they vote collectively based on the recommendation from EU leadership?

Inquitus

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Will the countries have a "free vote" or will they vote collectively based on the recommendation from EU leadership?

Their vote is sovereign, ofc the EU can make a recommendation and apply, perhaps, some political pressure, but at the end of the day it's in each one of the E27's hands.

Water John

Don't forget EU Parliament have to also agree.

Stacksofwacks

May will make another attempt to get the deal through. It will not succeed unless the EU give serious ground on the backstop..not happening. I can see her revoking article 50 at the 11th hour saying the government cant reach a consensus on brexit and its up to a future government if they want to continue with the policy.

Calltocall

Sardonicat wrote: »

She basically threatened them with the 'no-deal' scenario. Today's vote was not legally binding.

Surely if it doesn't get through in a 3rd vote they'll have to have a people's vote?

How long can this chaos reign? Is any governing actually happening at the moment?

So by threatening them she thinks the over a hundred deficit will be reduced and she’ll get it through next time? Or is she going to make further amendments to win the doubters over? it doesn’t sound very hopeful at all that she will be third time lucky! Also is it not a bit presumptuous that they will actually be granted the extension?

branie2

I'd say you could be right there.

Roger_007

dresden8 wrote: »

New game now.

What countries would be more than happy to see the UK go now rather than later?

The French are always looking to big themselves up.

Thoughts?

What the Brits sometimes fail to understand is that many in the EU will be glad to see the back of them. The image that came across from the likes of Nigel Farage is that the Brits look upon the rest of Europe with a mixture of arrogance and contempt. The large europhile part of the British people never got much air time.

McMurphy

Sick of this bolloxology from the UK government, an utter farce. What an absolute dysfunctional pantomime they have descended into now.

At this stage I'm almost wishing they'd just be gone. Bit of finality to the shytsorm, and the rest of us could assess what this actually means to our lives, both in business and day to day terms, try and adapt and move on.

My only slight pleasure from the entire clusterfcuk has been witnessing how the DUP are slowly being reduced to the irrelevance they really are and always have been to the rest of their British peers.

Inquitus

Calltocall wrote: »

So by threatening them she thinks the over a hundred deficit will be reduced and she’ll get it through next time? Or is she going to make further amendments to win the doubters over? it doesn’t sound very hopeful at all that she will be third time lucky! Also is it not a bit presumptuous that they will actually be granted the extension?

ERG is about 80 votes, about 72 of them voted against last night, 10 DUP also voted against. To reverse a 150 vote majority she needs 75 of those 80, it does not look likely, but the ERG could decide unanimously to get some Brexit rather than risk no Brexit, so while it looks unlikely looking at the numbers, it does have some potential to fly in reality.

gooch2k9

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105932337202774018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

She'll likely get it through then. DUP can't back away from Brexit either.

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

Inquitus

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105932337202774018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

She'll likely get it through then. DUP can't back away from Brexit either.

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

She needs almost all of the ERG mind, it only takes 10 odd of them and/or the DUP to go the other way and its dead.

Irishmale0399

Have the EU said anything to the shambles tonight???

Water John

Francois certainly won't support it, but some more LB MPs might support it.

Calltocall

Inquitus wrote: »

ERG is about 80 votes, about 72 of them voted against last night, 10 DUP also voted against. To reverse a 150 vote majority she needs 75 of those 80, it does not look likely, but the ERG could decide unanimously to get some Brexit rather than risk no Brexit, so while it looks unlikely looking at the numbers, it does have some potential to fly in reality.

Cheers for explanation, And if she falls a third time, what then, if it’s a general election isn’t it again unlikely that even a new government would be able to close the gap, I think it’s heading one way and that is to a no deal exit, might be best then not to grant the extension and get it over with rather than waiting months for the same outcome, I think if it’s an extension then there going to need longer than three months!

Roger_007

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Have the EU said anything to the shambles tonight???

The mods wouldn't allow it to be repeated on Boards.;)

FrancieBrady

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Have the EU said anything to the shambles tonight???

Basically - There is only Deal or No Deal. The EU have agreed one and it is ready to sign (EU Commission statement I think)

briany

Inquitus wrote: »

Their vote is sovereign, ofc the EU can make a recommendation and apply, perhaps, some political pressure, but at the end of the day it's in each one of the E27's hands.

Well, it's no real skin off the nose of France to vote to extend A50, even if it's only by a few months. Since Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit, it would be an interesting test of EU solidarity to see what the rest of the EU 27 say.

lawred2

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105932337202774018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

She'll likely get it through then. DUP can't back away from Brexit either.

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

Makes no sense. So the only reason to vote against the previous two was because of May!?

Are these lads for real?

If they do that; they've lost all credibility. Whatever shreds of it they did have.

Making it a personality issue at this stage is the pits.

Calltocall

briany wrote: »

Well, it's no real skin off the nose of France to vote to extend A50, even if it's only by a few months. Since Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit, it would be an interesting test of EU solidarity to see what the rest of the EU 27 say.

Indeed I’m not convinced it will be granted

jon1981

This is like an Irish phone call ending...

EU : See ya now
UK: Take care
EU: All the best
UK: Good Luck
EU: Will ya go on
UK: I'm going im going
EU: Grand see ya now
UK: C'mere and i tell ya, you'll never guess what happened....

gooch2k9

lawred2 wrote: »

Makes no sense. So the only reason to vote against the previous two was because of May!?

Are these lads for real?

No deal is better than May's deal. Financially so for some I'd imagine.

That's starting to look off the table.

Saying that I wouldn't be surprised if they said this and reneged. Time would be up at that point.

jon1981

briany wrote: »

Well, it's no real skin off the nose of France to vote to extend A50, even if it's only by a few months. Since Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit, it would be an interesting test of EU solidarity to see what the rest of the EU 27 say.

My thoughts exactly, this comes down to the question of will the EU f**k over a member state to make this Brexit deal happen?

gooch2k9

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105932337202774018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

She'll likely get it through then. DUP can't back away from Brexit either.

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

DUP getting thrown under the bus in that scenario then.

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

She needs almost all of the ERG mind, it only takes 10 odd of them and/or the DUP to go the other way and its dead.

The DUP is mainly concerned with being treated the same as the mainland. I think they'd go for a soft Brexit or even potentially remain, if the only other option is the WA including the backstop.

dresden8

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Will the countries have a "free vote" or will they vote collectively based on the recommendation from EU leadership?

Don't think Macron will take orders from Slovenia.

Beechwoodspark

dresden8 wrote: »

Don't think Macron will take orders from Slovenia.

Germany and France hold the power. God help any of the poor eastern members that act up

tuxy

All the talk for the last year or so of the EU backing down and making concessions at the 11th hour may have been because this is how many UK politicians like to do business and they assumed the EU did too. It's astounding that the UK has been in the EU for so long and is still so out of touch on how the union conducts itself.
Perhaps many of the google searches on "What is the EU?" following the referendum came from inside the HOC.