Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 09:53PM

Infini wrote: »

I would look at it this way.

No Deal Gets rejected tomorrow,
Extention proposal gets passed Thursday.

This then goes 2 ways:

EU agrees a limited extention IF Britain gives a reasonable plan on what it does. We're stuck in this twilight for god knows how long.

OR

EU bite's the bullet and calls time on their ignorance and basically say's NO extention due to lack of any meaningful plan on the British side.

<snip>

OR

Teresa May decides not to be the PM who sinks the country or goes down with the ship by basically offering parliament the decision to withdraw A50 pending a 2nd referendum due to simply running out of time, having no plans left and basically using the only OUT from all this they have left.

OR the third way: TM agrees to the Kyle-Wilson proposal - vote (next week) for the current WA conditional on a promise to put it to a people's vote. That justifies the EU granting an extension (T&Cs apply); the peoples vote is kicked out to 2020 and no-deal is avoided for at least a year.

gimli2112 · 12-03-2019 09:54PM

BBC interviewing a business man in Sunderland. He's totally prepared for either outcome, just wants it over. Asked what his contingency plans were I think he said he's going to start manufacturing in Taiwan and licensing his IP in the US. There'll be winners in a no deal but thousands of miles away and the already rich.

seamus · 12-03-2019 09:54PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Tomorrow's deal is not meaningless...well, depending on the result.

If they vote to allow no deal, that's it...end of the game
Otherwise, there's still things in play

The former would be a monumentally historic

The latter is far more likely though

If they vote against No Deal though, that's little more than a statement of intent.

The legislation to repeal Brexit would still have to be officially debated and approved by the HoC, and I can guarantee at that debate you'd still have the same old faces claiming that they can go back and get another deal and that cancelling Brexit cannot be allowed to happen.

It is possible, nay standard, for politicians to occupy two opposing positions at once. They will vote against No Deal while also fighting to ensure that Brexit isn't cancelled.

CelticRambler wrote: »

OR the third way: TM agrees to the Kyle-Wilson proposal - vote (next week) for the current WA conditional on a promise to put it to a people's vote. That justifies the EU granting an extension (T&Cs apply); the peoples vote is kicked out to 2020 and no-deal is avoided for at least a year.

The EU will not grant an extension beyond May 23rd. It really can't.

gooch2k9 · 12-03-2019 09:59PM

Sky just had one amendment from Baker, JRM, Morgan, IDS, Dodds and more for an extension until 22nd May. Weren't sure if it was for tomorrow or Thursday. Trying to head off a long extension early.

Trying to run the Malthouse idea again supposedly.

milhous · 12-03-2019 09:59PM

So, I presume its expected that the UK will vote for an extension tomorrow. Its still a **** show and they still have the same issues.

With that in mind is it a gaurentee that the EU27 will let them have their extension, it seems to be taken for granted that they will.

The way I see it play out is that they'll get the extension, T&Cs will be a GE and/or 2nd referendum.

What a shocker it would be if the EU turned around and were like, na lads. Wait and see how long it would be before the UK would come back to join up... Or maybe they'd get through it!?

theguzman · 12-03-2019 09:59PM

Hard Brexit is looking very likely as it is the defacto outcome of all of this. Let the EU see that National Sovereignty cannot be undermined as they are doing across the continent.

An Ciarraioch · 12-03-2019 09:59PM

Even ERG proposing an extension until May 22nd:

http://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602?s=19

Beechwoodspark · 12-03-2019 10:00PM

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Sky just had one amendment from Baker, JRM, Morgan, IDS, Dodds and more for an extension until 22nd May. Weren't sure if it was for tomorrow or Thursday. Trying to head off a long extension early.

Trying to run the Malthouse idea again supposedly.

Aka the madhouse proposals

An Ciarraioch · 12-03-2019 10:01PM

theguzman wrote: »

Hard Brexit is looking very likely as it is the defacto outcome of all of this. Let the EU see that National Sovereignty cannot be undermined as they are doing across the continent.

And what credible hard right groupings are there here, exactly?

12-03-2019 10:01PM

gimli2112 wrote: »

BBC interviewing a business man in Sunderland. He's totally prepared for either outcome, just wants it over. Asked what his contingency plans were I think he said he's going to start manufacturing in Taiwan and licensing his IP in the US. There'll be winners in a no deal but thousands of miles away and the already rich.

I would imagine that there are also businessmen who have national markets rather than international ones who will see the opportunities that import tariffs will provide him to grow his business with less external competition from cheaper imports.

Professor Moriarty · 12-03-2019 10:03PM

Belgian MEP on Sky looking and sounding very frustrated.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 10:05PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Even ERG proposing an extension until May 22nd:

http://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602?s=19

Iain Duncan Smith signed his name wrong :pac:

An Ciarraioch · 12-03-2019 10:05PM

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1105558015137193986

Akrasia · 12-03-2019 10:05PM

milhous wrote: »

So, I presume its expected that the UK will vote for an extension tomorrow. Its still a **** show and they still have the same issues.

With that in mind is it a gaurentee that the EU27 will let them have their extension, it seems to be taken for granted that they will.

The way I see it play out is that they'll get the extension, T&Cs will be a GE and/or 2nd referendum.

What a shocker it would be if the EU turned around and were like, na lads. Wait and see how long it would be before the UK would come back to join up... Or maybe they'd get through it!?

The vote on thursday will go like this 'Theresa May tables a motion for a short extension to the end of June to 'renegotiate her deal'. This passes and the EU tweet out 1 minute later that they will not accept such a short extension without a definite purpose and they will only accept a longer extension if it includes participation in the EU elections and a 2nd Referendum

Hurrache · 12-03-2019 10:06PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Belgian MEP on Sky looking and sounding very frustrated.

There's been a steady stream of them across Sky and BBC, each equally and as obviously annoyed and frustrated with the jokers in the HoC tonight.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 10:07PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1105558015137193986

The DUP mentality is that no deal equals harder border equals more separation from Republic.

I have thought that from the start - they would welcome no deal.

j8wk2feszrnpao · 12-03-2019 10:07PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1105558015137193986

He actually said on SKY that he wants it on the table to use as part of a threat of No-Deal. He's clueless. EU don't see it as a threat, and probably moving ahead with plans for No-Deal.

Akrasia · 12-03-2019 10:08PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Even ERG proposing an extension until May 22nd:

http://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602?s=19

They want to extend but not take part in EU parliamentary elections, thereby guaranteeing that they wont be allowed to extend again past July

Atlantic Dawn · 12-03-2019 10:08PM

The tariffs she will announce tomorrow will be interesting.

fash · 12-03-2019 10:09PM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I never seen any of them threats. I seen the UK being much more reasonable to Ireland since brexit then the other way around.

this level of ignorance certainly helps to explain your ability to

Either accede to partition or terrible and immediate war: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Irish_Treaty

"Irish should know their place" (from a favourite source of yours in sure too: www.rt.com/op-ed/446691-ireland-britain-brexit-border/amp/

Patel's proposal to use threats of starvation to force Ireland to give up the backstop:
https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2018/12/09/a-british-member-of-parliament-proposes-starving-ireland-as-a-negotiating-tactic/
However this is just a very small amount of the anti-Irish statements made.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why can't the backstop be time-limited, even five years? If they can't work out arrangements in two years transition and five years backstop then they are seriously not trying. To refuse they just showed the whole plan was clearly a trap.

The backstop can't be 5 years because there is no technological solution possible- the Brexiters lied to you (shock)- the only way to avoid a hard border is to have regulatory alignment - of which the Brexiters are perfectly aware - otherwise the current "new and improved" backstop now with "bad faith" opt out would be more than sufficient to satisfy them.
It is only a "trap" if the UK (again) wants to hold Northern Ireland and the Irish people hostage- against the will of the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland who wanted to remain in the EU and want the (NI only) backstop.

Now please answer my questions.

Spanish Eyes · 12-03-2019 10:09PM

dresden8 wrote: »

James is worse than Joe Duffy.

Morons are let on so he can tear them apart.

His shtick is tired disbelief.

To be absolutely fair, he is well able to suss out the idiots. That is his job. And he has proven it too.

Joe Duffy has no such intelligence IMV.

VinLieger · 12-03-2019 10:09PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The DUP mentality is that no deal equals harder border equals more separation from Republic.

I have thought that from the start - they would welcome no deal.

Except anyone with a clue can see how it makes a UI far more likely

Headshot · 12-03-2019 10:09PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1105558015137193986

well i'm shocked, shocked I say...........

What a horrible bunch to do this to to their own country which voted to say in the EU.

They are really nasty pieces of work

j8wk2feszrnpao · 12-03-2019 10:09PM

Akrasia wrote: »

The vote on thursday will go like this 'Theresa May tables a motion for a short extension to the end of June to 'renegotiate her deal'. This passes and the EU tweet out 1 minute later that they will not accept such a short extension without a definite purpose and they will only accept a longer extension if it includes participation in the EU elections and a 2nd Referendum

I don't think they'd state the final part, that's an internal decision for the UK.
But would fully expect a rejection of a short extension as part of a request for more negotiations on something that they have repeatedly said won't change.

Spanish Eyes · 12-03-2019 10:10PM

Seems to me that Brittania think they will rule the waves (sorry the EU) forever more.

Good luck with that.

Infini · 12-03-2019 10:10PM

milhous wrote: »

So, I presume its expected that the UK will vote for an extension tomorrow. Its still a **** show and they still have the same issues.

With that in mind is it a gaurentee that the EU27 will let them have their extension, it seems to be taken for granted that they will.

The way I see it play out is that they'll get the extension, T&Cs will be a GE and/or 2nd referendum.

What a shocker it would be if the EU turned around and were like, na lads. Wait and see how long it would be before the UK would come back to join up... Or maybe they'd get through it!?

Honestly the UK needs to propose a solid and viable reason for an extension. Now the EU could simply agree not to suit the UK but to do any additional no deal preperations and throw em under the bus in May of course if they give em 2 months. On the other hand they could easily kick em out come 29th of March and literally hit them with all their Brexit means Brexit carry on etc simply because the UK hasnt given a justifiable reason to agree to an extention either.

The simple truth is that it might be better off just letting them crash out and then force em to decide if they want Brexit or Cancel it entirely for one reason: It would give far more certainty than anything the UK says at this point. If they withdraw A50 then at the very least there can be no Brexit without a 2nd referendum simply because any attempt to use it to dodge the 2 year timer to start this all over again would be likely defeated by a court of law and they get kicked out ignominously afterwards. It would also give legal clarity to the EU parlimentary elections as well as if they're gone theyre gone and if not then the parliment would not be on legally perilous grounds if the UK changes it mind at the last minute.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 10:11PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Except anyone with a clue can see how it makes a UI far more likely

Does it?

I'm not sure how it does to be honest.

j8wk2feszrnpao · 12-03-2019 10:12PM

fash wrote: »

The backstop can't be 5 years because there is no technological solution possible- the Brexiters lied to you (shock)

But Moggy said it was really really easy to implement. He never said how it could be done, or what it'd even look like.....but Moggy wouldn't lie......

road_high · 12-03-2019 10:14PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The DUP mentality is that no deal equals harder border equals more separation from Republic.

I have thought that from the start - they would welcome no deal.

Spot on- anything that cements the border and brings NI as close to the UK as possible is their reason d’etre.

bilston · 12-03-2019 10:15PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The DUP mentality is that no deal equals harder border equals more separation from Republic.

I have thought that from the start - they would welcome no deal.

I don't think that's right. They are genuinely concerned about diluting Northern Ireland's position in the UK. I think they are fundamentally wrong, but I don't think they want a hard border. Apart from anything else a hard border will be very bad news for a lot of their voters.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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