Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus · 27-02-2019 10:14am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Stand on its own two feet, as the sixth biggest economy in the world, and which still exports more outside the EU than to within the EU.

Others have pointed out that the "sixth biggest economy" bit is probably not something youcantakethat should be drawing attention to, given the message of decline embedded within it. But I want to pick up on the "still exports more outside the EU" bit.

"Still" is the wrong word to use here, since in fact it's a recent development. Until 2014, the UK exported more to the EU than to the rest of the world. And, worse, the change isn't because of a boom in trade with the rest of the world; it's because the UK's exports to the EU have been static or declining, in real terms (while imports from the EU continue to rise). And that's not because of a decline in demand in EU countries; during this period demand has been rising faster in EU countries than in the UK.

So, yeah, youcantakethat is hitting all the wrong points here. Far from making an economic case for Brexit, this kind of post tends to give the impression that there is no economic case for Brexit because, if there were sound economic points to be made here, why isn't youcantakethat making them?

youcantakethat · 27-02-2019 10:14am

volchitsa wrote: »

Or Germany at 3%, the Czech Republic (2.2%) or a number of other EU countries with lower unemployment rates than the UK, so what's your point really?

My point made earlier in the thread was that in fairness to the UK, their unemployment rate last year was only 4 percent.

The figures mean the Eurozone’s average unemployment is more than double the UK’s., although the Eurozone figure is being dragged up by the struggling economies of countries like Greece (19.1 percent unemployment) and Spain (15.2 percent). No wonder so many people have migrated to the UK for opportunities and for much paid work than in their home countries.

youcantakethat · 27-02-2019 10:21am

seamus wrote: »

It seems to me that the entire country, media and population alike, are certain that the UK will not leave without a deal.

They want to do a deal. They want to trade with Europe. If the EU does not do a deal it will be shooting itself in the foot, as the UK buys more off the EU than the EU buys off the UK. Of course Merkel will do a deal, Mercedes and BMW and VW sell too many cars in the UK not to.

Leroy42 · 27-02-2019 10:21am

No, the point you were trying to make was that Spain, part of the EU, had terrible youth unemployment and the UK doesn't have anywhere close to that so that shows that the UK is far better, and by extension better outside the EU.

It was then shown to you that other countries in the EU have even lower than the UK, so if you had taken those instead of Spain your argument would surely be that the UK should stay in the EU and try to be more like Germany etc.

There are wide variations across the EU, just as there in within the UK itself. If you wish to go down the route of cherry picking certain areas to prove a point about the whole, why not select NI, which requires 10bn in subvention each year. Why not point to the fact that a number of the poorest areas in the EU are in the UK itself. Why not point out the poor level of productivity in UK industry.

VinLieger · 27-02-2019 10:24am

youcantakethat wrote: »

My point made earlier in the thread was that in fairness to the UK, their unemployment rate last year was only 4 percent.

The figures mean the Eurozone’s average unemployment is more than double the UK’s., although the Eurozone figure is being dragged up by the struggling economies of countries like Greece (19.1 percent unemployment) and Spain (15.2 percent). No wonder so many people have migrated to the UK for opportunities and for much paid work than in their home countries.

You mean the people who are now leaving in droves meaning the NHS now has 103,000 job listings 40,000 of which are for nurses?

Leroy42 · 27-02-2019 10:25am

youcantakethat wrote: »

They want to do a deal. They want to trade with Europe. If the EU does not do a deal it will be shooting itself in the foot, as the UK buys more off the EU than the EU buys off the UK. Of course Merkel will do a deal, Mercedes and BMW and VW sell too many cars in the UK not to.

Great, there is a deal on the table, if the UK want it the EU continue to extend the deadline to them. They are already trading with the EU, Brexit is the cause of that being put in doubt. Revoke A50 and all the problems go away.

Germany is going to continue to sell cars in the UK. Where else are the UK going to get their cars from? The cost of the cars will simply go up.

It always amazes me that one of the selling points of Brexit is that the EU is a protectionist racket, yet they seem to think that the EU will drop all that to simply trade with the UK. Yet they fail to acknowledge that there is no FTA with the US, a far bigger and more important market than the UK.

Zubeneschamali · 27-02-2019 10:28am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Of course Merkel will do a deal, Mercedes and BMW and VW sell too many cars in the UK not to.

Firstly, Merkel is not at the table to do any deals.

Secondly, the German car manufacturers have said that the Single Market is much more important to them than the UK. Porsche have already told their customers that UK prices go up 10% on Brexit day without a deal.

VinLieger · 27-02-2019 10:28am

youcantakethat wrote: »

They want to do a deal. They want to trade with Europe. If the EU does not do a deal it will be shooting itself in the foot, as the UK buys more off the EU than the EU buys off the UK. Of course Merkel will do a deal, Mercedes and BMW and VW sell too many cars in the UK not to.

Think you might be 1-2 months behind in your UKIP talking points email updates.

youcantakethat · 27-02-2019 10:29am

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, the point you were trying to make was that Spain, part of the EU, had terrible youth unemployment and the UK doesn't have anywhere close to that so that shows that the UK is far better, and by extension better outside the EU.

It was then shown to you that other countries in the EU have even lower than the UK, so if you had taken those instead of Spain your argument would surely be that the UK should stay in the EU and try to be more like Germany etc.

Of course there are countries and areas in the EU with lower unemployment than the UK. The point I made earlier in the thread was that UK unemployment last year was less than half of the average unemployment rate in the Eurozone. Of course areas within countries differ, for example there is a huge difference between Silicone valley and Chicago. We were comparing average between countries. Compared with OECD countries outside the Eurozone, unemployment in the Eurozone is very high.

VinLieger · 27-02-2019 10:33am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Of course there are countries and areas in the EU with lower unemployment than the UK. The point I made earlier in the thread was that UK unemployment last year was less than half of the average unemployment rate in the Eurozone. Of course areas within countries differ, for example there is a huge difference between Silicone valley and Chicago. We were comparing average between countries. Compared with OECD countries outside the Eurozone, unemployment in the Eurozone is very high.

Ho many of those countries consider 1 hour of work per week as being employed?

lawred2 · 27-02-2019 10:39am

This is largely what the UK's low unemployment figures are predicated on

https://www.statista.com/topics/3912/zero-hour-contracts-in-the-uk/

youcantakethat · 27-02-2019 10:39am

VinLieger wrote: »

Ho many of those countries consider 1 hour of work per week as being employed?

You tell me, the Greeks? Average working week in the UK would not be too different to here, I would assume.

UsedToWait · 27-02-2019 10:42am

youcantakethat wrote: »

You tell me, the Greeks? Average working week in the UK would not be too different to here, I would assume.

Where's here, if you don't mind sharing? (the County would be fine)..

VinLieger · 27-02-2019 10:44am

youcantakethat wrote: »

You tell me, the Greeks? Average working week in the UK would not be too different to here, I would assume.

Not how it works, your the one throwing all the fancy stats and numbers around, so shouldn't be too hard to figure out for someone so knowledgeable about all of this to find that info out should it?

Or is it possible you've not actually been doing any research on this and have just been ripping headlines from the mail and express that you like the look of but don't really understand how those numbers are calculated?

Leroy42 · 27-02-2019 10:44am

youcantakethat wrote: »

Of course there are countries and areas in the EU with lower unemployment than the UK. The point I made earlier in the thread was that UK unemployment last year was less than half of the average unemployment rate in the Eurozone. Of course areas within countries differ, for example there is a huge difference between Silicone valley and Chicago. We were comparing average between countries. Compared with OECD countries outside the Eurozone, unemployment in the Eurozone is very high.

So your point was that the UK, which was the 5th biggest economy, was better than the average of the EU when the EU had some undeveloped and badly run economies that it is trying to help turn around. And what does that prove?

Nothing, nothing at all. It is a meaningless cherrypicking of statistics to try to back up your position.

But regardless. That is the present. Brexit is going to fundamentally change the basis of the UK economy and according to the government report has 9% negative impact on GDP over the coming years.

That is the bit you need to focus on. That is what is expected to happen and yet you still seem to think that there will no no effect on the UK economy, unemployment etc.

youcantakethat · 27-02-2019 10:45am

Leroy42 wrote: »

Germany is going to continue to sell cars in the UK.

But not as many unless Merkel does a deal. At the moment 1 in 7 cars made in Germany are exported to the UK, the UK is an important market for German car manufactures, worth about $98 billion a year. If the UK economy tanks and tariffs are introduced, it is possible those sales to the UK may decline dramatically. The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, and the UK was always one of the main net contributors to EU funds, so it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

Leroy42 · 27-02-2019 10:51am

youcantakethat wrote: »

But not as many unless Merkel does a deal. At the moment 1 in 7 cars made in Germany are exported to the UK, the UK is an important market for German car manufactures, worth about $98 billion a year. If the UK economy tanks and tariffs are introduced, it is possible those sales to the UK may decline dramatically. The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, and the UK was always one of the main net contributors to EU funds, so it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

How many cars doe Germany sell to the rest of the EU is the question you need to ask rather than simply looking at one market. Would it make more sense to rip up the EU rules to try to maintain the UK market at the expense of the rest of the EU?

Based on your own number 6 of 7 cars don't go to the UK. I am no automotive expert but that says to me that Non UK is far bigger than the UK.

I think this is the fatal flaw in the entire Brexit argument. If UK could be taken in isolation that there is no doubt that German car makers, Irish farmers etc would give a whatever deal to the UK. But, as in the case of Ireland, if we give a deal to the UK how will that effect all our other trade? So whilst we night dodge a bullet in terms of UK trade we will face massive problems in all other trade.

So the deal with the UK must be seen in relation to the EU as a whole as the standing of the EU in the wider world. If they allow the UK to bend the rules, don't you think the US and Chine will be banging on the door to demand even better as they are much larger?

Zubeneschamali · 27-02-2019 10:53am

youcantakethat wrote: »

it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

Yes, that's why they spent 2 years negotiating a withdrawal agreement, and why they are ready to start lengthy negotiations on a future trade deal to follow the transition period agreed in the WA.

That deal is on the table, the UK can ratify it today.

fergiesfolly · 27-02-2019 10:54am

youcantakethat wrote: »

But not as many unless Merkel does a deal. At the moment 1 in 7 cars made in Germany are exported to the UK, the UK is an important market for German car manufactures, worth about $98 billion a year. If the UK economy tanks and tariffs are introduced, it is possible those sales to the UK may decline dramatically. The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, and the UK was always one of the main net contributors to EU funds, so it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

Merkel cannot/ will not do a deal.
Yes, German car sales in the UK will fall, but not to the extent you may believe.
People buying Mercedes, BMW and Porches are not going to switch to Vauxhall or Nissan because of a 10% price hike.

Also..The EU knows what's in it's best interests.
Pity the UK don't.

farmchoice · 27-02-2019 10:55am

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

Nicked from Reddit

this chart is doing the rounds at the moment but there is something in it i dont understand.

if there is a vote to rule out leaving on ''no deal'' we then move to a vote on an extension, if this passes there is some sort of an extension requested, but if it fails? the assumption on the above chart is that we are back to leaving on the 29th with no deal, but where is that coming from, may has stated that the only way to rule out no deal if the WA is rejected is to revoke article 50.
yesterday she explicitly said that following a vote to rule out no deal and then a vote in favor of a short extension no deal is then back on the table in the extension period( this makes logical scene, if such a thing exists in brexit). But if the vote to extend fails? we have then had 2 previous votes one to reject the WA and one to reject ''no deal''. these are not either/or votes.

logically this leaves the only option available to the PM revoke article 50.

Silent Running · 27-02-2019 10:55am

youcantakethat wrote: »

But not as many unless Merkel does a deal. At the moment 1 in 7 cars made in Germany are exported to the UK, the UK is an important market for German car manufactures, worth about $98 billion a year. If the UK economy tanks and tariffs are introduced, it is possible those sales to the UK may decline dramatically. The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, and the UK was always one of the main net contributors to EU funds, so it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

I've asked this question before... maybe even to one of your previous personas.

What will the Mercedes, BMW, Audi, etc. drivers buy instead of their current marque? Will they buy some Chinese of American no-name tat? Will they buy all of the cars produced in the UK (oh wait...)?.

They'll still buy German cars for the same reasons they do today, they'll just have to pay more for the privilege. They might even see it as a better status symbol because it costs even more.

CelticRambler · 27-02-2019 11:01am

RobMc59 wrote: »

fash wrote: »

But aside from all that, what is wrong with France (due example) "bullying" the UK? Doesn't the UK - 850 years of oppression and genocide in Ireland etc.- deserve it?
Who could blame the French and Germans for all of the unpunished attrocities and crimes against humanity committed by the British over the centuries (E.g. the fire-bombing of the civilian population of Dresden)?

I agree with you until the last section when you go totally off subject talking about "unpunished atrocities "and to use events of WW2 as examples is way over the top imo.

When you learn why a town like Le Havre or Abbeville is so completely architecturally modern compared to the typical decrepit French mediaeval centre ville, perhaps being an Irishman with all that historical baggage evokes a more intense reaction. At least that's how it was for me, when I realised that the narrative of "our great heroes" being peddled to my children in school in England was somewhat off the mark - like their bombs - and that the RAF were just as much a bunch of murderous bastards as the Black & Tans. Between themselves and their US buddies, they killed as many French civilians in bombing raids as the Germans deported and exterminated French Jews (link). Have a look at the photos of Le Havre from the day after the RAF visited and compare them to the photos of Hiroshima; tell me that was not an atrocity, and explain why 5000 French civilians had to die for Britain that day.

Is it valid to use examples from WW2 in this context? Well, most of us here would say "FFS: no! We've moved on from last-century conflicts" - but that's not the case when it comes to the Brexiteers. Just about any vox pop interview or any heated discussion on TV or radio will have someone on the Leave side lob in a remark about "we won the War" or "bloody Germans" or some other reference to WW1 or 2.

And that's the nub of the problem: so much of the Brexit debate and the argument in favour of Leave is based on 100-year-old propaganda wartime produced by a goverment that needed more "brave heroes" to massacre foreign civilians in the name of British freedom. While so much of Britain has continued to live in this swashbuckling fantasy world, the rest of us in Europe had a collective WTF? moment, decided to draw a blue-and-gold-starred line in the sand, let bygones be bygones, and move on.

That is why the GFA and the literal line of the Irish border is so important in all of this. From an Irish perpective, that was our collective decision to move on and was reciprocated by the British. I think even today, few people in England understand how enormously powerful was the image of Queen Elizabeth coming to Ireland, stomping across an Irish field in her green wellies; laying a wreath at our Garden of Rememberance; a woman who had been the very literal target of the IRA for years sitting down to dinner with the Commander in Chief of the paramilitaries who murdered her cousin, killed thousands of her subjects and caused billions of pounds worth of damage to her Kingdom.

And then with one tick in a box, 17.4m voters decided to rip all that reconciliation to shreds ... :mad:

So yeah, if the Brexiteers want to go down the rabbit-hole of "taking back control" as a nineteenth-century independent nation, let's set the record straight and have them also accept responsibility for war crimes and other atrocities committed by Britain on continental soil.

Or they could just get real, burn their fictionalised history books, and join the rest of us in the twenty-first century.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 27-02-2019 11:02am

youcantakethat wrote: »

But not as many unless Merkel does a deal. At the moment 1 in 7 cars made in Germany are exported to the UK, the UK is an important market for German car manufactures, worth about $98 billion a year. If the UK economy tanks and tariffs are introduced, it is possible those sales to the UK may decline dramatically. The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, and the UK was always one of the main net contributors to EU funds, so it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

That's not how tariffs work.

85% of cars sold in the UK are "imported" (I'm not sure you can actually import/export technically within the EU, but let's stick with that terminology anyway) from the EU.

Tariffs mean that UK citizens will be spending more on these 85% of cars, this could only ever impact the EU manufacturers if (i) UK had an indigenous car market (ii) UK had a trade deal with another country from whom they could immediately start importing 85% of their cars.

youcantakethat · 27-02-2019 11:04am

Silent Running wrote: »

They'll still buy German cars for the same reasons they do today, they'll just have to pay more for the privilege.

And therefore not as many, and certainly not as many if the UK economy tanks due to the EU wishing to punish the UK, saying they have a place in hell etc.
If the EU does not do a deal, an acceptable deal, the Germany will not continue to sell $98 billion worth of cars a year in the UK. The UK is currently Europes 3rd biggest car manufacturing country, it will probably suffer too. Honda is pulling out of Swindon as well as out of Turkey, and the EU has recently done a free trade agreement with the EU, so in future Honda will freely supply all its cars direct from Japan in to the EU, without tariffs. It will not have a manufacturing plant in Europe at all.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 27-02-2019 11:06am

Leroy42 wrote: »

How many cars doe Germany sell to the rest of the EU is the question you need to ask rather than simply looking at one market. Would it make more sense to rip up the EU rules to try to maintain the UK market at the expense of the rest of the EU?

Based on your own number 6 of 7 cars don't go to the UK. I am no automotive expert but that says to me that Non UK is far bigger than the UK.

I think this is the fatal flaw in the entire Brexit argument. If UK could be taken in isolation that there is no doubt that German car makers, Irish farmers etc would give a whatever deal to the UK. But, as in the case of Ireland, if we give a deal to the UK how will that effect all our other trade? So whilst we night dodge a bullet in terms of UK trade we will face massive problems in all other trade.

So the deal with the UK must be seen in relation to the EU as a whole as the standing of the EU in the wider world. If they allow the UK to bend the rules, don't you think the US and Chine will be banging on the door to demand even better as they are much larger?

There's a key distinction if I'm understanding this correctly; 1 in 5 German cars are exported, of which 1 in 7 are exported to the UK. So the German domestic market buys the vast majority of its cars.

Now, I'd suggest that this doesn't include German cars which are final-assembled in US/Asia/S.Africa from tools/parts shipped to those countries.

Dytalus · 27-02-2019 11:07am

youcantakethat wrote: »

But not as many unless Merkel does a deal.

Merkel cannot make a deal independent of the other EU27 members. Even if she did want to make a deal, she has to convince the other EU leaders (and the European Parliament) to make alterations to the Withdrawal Agreement. She is not the EU's boss.

And she has bigger concerns anyway.

youcantakethat wrote: »

At the moment 1 in 7 cars made in Germany are exported to the UK, the UK is an important market for German car manufactures, worth about $98 billion a year. If the UK economy tanks and tariffs are introduced, it is possible those sales to the UK may decline dramatically.

German car manufacturer's have expressed a fear of a hard Brexit, this is true. But the head of the VDA Carmakers Federation has made it quite clear that this will hurt the UK industry more than theirs.

Without an orderly and workable solution for economic exchanges, jobs in the car industry are at risk, especially on the British side

Source.

Note that the article also shows that the BDI director lays the responsibility for a hard brexit solely on the shoulders of Her Majesty's Government - in particular he has concerns for medicine being provided to the UK.

"A chaotic Brexit is coming dangerously close," Federation of German Industry (BDI) director Joachim Lang said in a statement, warning that more than €175 billion of German-British exchanges in goods and services could be affected.

"The top priority must be to avoid a hard Brexit," Lang added. "Responsibility for that lies solely with the government and the opposition in London."

youcantakethat wrote: »

The EU sells more to the UK than the UK sells to the EU, and the UK was always one of the main net contributors to EU funds, so it is in the EU's interest to do a deal.

Even in the event of a no-deal, the UK may still be forced to pay the divorce bill - thereby contributing to the EU's budget anyway. Long term, the UK's contributions are leaving one way or another, so I don't see what point you're trying to raise here.

prawnsambo · 27-02-2019 11:09am

CelticRambler wrote: »

Is it valid to use examples from WW2 in this context? Well, most of us here would say "FFS: no! We've moved on from last-century conflicts" - but that's not the case when it comes to the Brexiteers. Just about any vox pop interview or any heated discussion on TV or radio will have someone on the Leave side lob in a remark about "we won the War" or "bloody Germans" or some other reference to WW1 or 2.

Great post. That bit above reminded me of a clip on John Oliver's show of your typical union jack clad brexiter talking about the war. "I lost a grandfather in the first world war and an uncle in the second world war and we survived". Yep. That's how the thinking goes. Somebody should have reminded him that his grandfather and uncle didn't survive.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 27-02-2019 11:09am

I wonder if no-deal Brexit would mean that Ireland would start getting UK base-spec German cars here? The base models in UK are way more equipped than the ones they sell here.

VinLieger · 27-02-2019 11:10am

youcantakethat wrote: »

And therefore not as many, and certainly not as many if the UK economy tanks due to the EU wishing to punish the UK, saying they have a place in hell etc.

Are we really back to this pathetic misquoting?

Silent Running · 27-02-2019 11:13am

youcantakethat wrote: »

And therefore not as many, and certainly not as many if the UK economy tanks due to the EU wishing to punish the UK, saying they have a place in hell etc.
If the EU does not do a deal, an acceptable deal, the Germany will not continue to sell $98 billion worth of cars a year in the UK. The UK is currently Europes 3rd biggest car manufacturing country, it will probably suffer too. Honda is pulling out of Swindon as well as out of Turkey, and the EU has recently done a free trade agreement with the EU, so in future Honda will freely supply all its cars direct from Japan in to the EU, without tariffs. It will not have a manufacturing plant in Europe at all.

Why do all the Brexit supporters coming on here use the same tired old terminology of their heroes Farage and co.? European bullying, impossible to leave, Germany will do a deal, unelected bureaucrats, they need us, etc., etc.

Can you not just come on the thread and tell us what fantastic benefits that Brexit will bring to the UK? How you really feel they will fare if the UK goes out to the WTO world? Why you think that Brexit is such a good thing, in your own view? And please don't use the take back control rubbish without giving good examples of what you want to control and how.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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